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苹果产业链周报:暴涨后的塌陷-20250804
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 05:32
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Old - crop apples have low inventory, but their consumption is affected by the listing of seasonal fruits. New - season early - maturing apples had a higher average opening price than last year, but the price declined significantly in August. The recent price increase in the futures market was due to an agricultural product sales document, but since the impact on apples was limited, the futures price quickly fell after the initial increase [3]. - The futures price is expected to fall further and may drop below 7700 [4]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Market Information - **Production Area**: The sales of late - Fuji apples are slow, and prices are stable with a slight downward trend. There is limited enthusiasm among merchants to purchase. In the west, the inventory is low, and price polarization is obvious. In Shandong, merchants are trying to lower prices when purchasing, and some fruit farmers are eager to sell. For new - season early - maturing apples, the supply of early - ripening Qinyang is running out, and prices are decreasing after an initial high. Paper - bag Gala apples are starting to be available in some areas, but there are problems with slow color development and greening after bag removal [1]. - **Sales Area**: The number of trucks arriving at the three major markets in Guangdong has increased slightly compared to the previous week. Actual transactions are priced according to quality. The low - priced seasonal fruits are selling well, which is affecting the sales of apples. The terminal consumption has slowed down slightly, and second - and third - level wholesalers are purchasing as needed, with no obvious backlog in transit warehouses [1]. - **Inventory**: As of July 30, according to Steel Union data, the national cold - storage inventory was 61.61 tons, a decrease of 8.84 tons compared to the previous week, and the sales speed slowed down slightly. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 10.10%, a decrease of 1.02%, and in Shaanxi it was 2.91%, a decrease of 0.74%. According to Zhuochuang data, the national cold - storage inventory was 57.61 tons, a decrease of 7.2 tons, the storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 7.15%, a decrease of 0.87%, and in Shaanxi it was 4.01%, a decrease of 0.52% [1]. Market Analysis - Old - crop apples have low inventory, but their consumption is affected by seasonal fruits. Although the consumption speed is better than last week, it has been poor recently. New - season early - maturing apples had a higher average opening price than last year, but the price has dropped significantly since August. The recent sharp increase in the futures market was due to an agricultural product sales document, but since the impact on apples was limited, the futures price quickly fell after the initial increase [3]. Futures Price Analysis - The recent trend of the futures price has continued to decline, and it may fall below 7700 [4]. Market Attention Points - Cold - storage出库情况, production area weather conditions, opening price and transaction volume of early - maturing apples [5]. Price Changes | Contract | 2025 - 08 - 04 Closing Price | Change Rate | 2025 - 08 - 01 Price | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | AP01 | 7685 | - 2.66% | Qixia first - and second - grade 80: 3.8 | - 3.8% | | AP03 | 7674 | - 1.79% | Luochuan semi - commercial 70: 4.5 | - 6.25% | | AP04 | 7707 | - 1.35% | Jingning paper - bag 75: 5.6 | - 6.67% | | AP05 | 7800 | - 1.35% | Yiyuan paper - bag 70: 2.3 | 0% | | AP10 | 7758 | - 3.65% | Wanrong paper - plus - film 75: 2.8 | 0% | | AP11 | 7575 | - 2.76% | Futures profit: - 791 | - 20.98% | | AP12 | 7643 | - 2.2% | Theoretical delivery price: 8600 | 0% | | AP01 - 05 | - 115 | 858.33% | Main contract basis: 809 | 35.06% | | AP05 - 10 | 42 | - 128.97% | Warehouse receipts: 0 | 0 | | AP10 - 01 | 73 | - 53.5% | Warehouse receipts + valid forecasts: 0 | - 1 | [7] Yield Forecast - Based on bagging data, it is estimated that the national apple production in the 2025/26 season will increase by 2.35% to 3736.64 tons. Shaanxi's production will increase by 7.57% to 878.84 tons, Shandong's will decrease by 9.89% to 782.37 tons, Gansu's will increase by 2.18% to 379.15 tons, Henan's will increase by 21.09% to 274.28 tons, and Shaanxi (repeated mention, assume it's a different area) will increase by 28.39% to 352.19 tons [2].