大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 农产品日报 2024 年 08 月 25 日 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日价 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日价 | 涨跌 | | 成 | | | | | | 投 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 109.50 | 109.43 | 0.07 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 3.95 | 3.95 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 6.86 | 6.82 | 0.04 | | 期货价格 | | | | | ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the significant decline in the prices of imported fruits in China, which were once considered luxury items, due to advancements in domestic fruit cultivation, improved supply chain efficiency, and a more rational consumer mindset [1] Supply Side - The primary reason for the decline in imported fruit prices is the dramatic changes on the supply side, with countries like Chile and the USA expanding cherry cultivation, leading to a projected 30% increase in cherry exports to China by 2025 [3] - The transportation time for cherries has been reduced to 26 hours, resulting in a surge in market supply, where distributors now need to actively promote sales [3] - In the blueberry sector, countries like Peru and Chile have utilized frozen fruit technology to provide year-round supply, while China's Yunnan province has increased its blueberry planting area to 249,000 acres, accounting for one-third of the national output, with a projected 30% increase in total production by 2024 [3] Demand Side - Consumer preferences for imported fruits are becoming more rational, with a rise in low-sugar health demands, as evidenced by a 23% increase in online blueberry sales in 2024, while high-sugar fruits like lychee and mango see slowed growth [3] - Over-packaging has faced backlash, with a specific brand's grapes criticized for high packaging costs, leading to a 50% price drop due to poor sales [3] Technological Empowerment - The quality improvement of domestic fruits is attributed to technological innovations, such as precision cultivation techniques in Yunnan's blueberry industry, which enhance fruit size and sweetness [4] - An agricultural company in Shandong has utilized AI technology for strawberry cultivation, increasing prices by 50% and achieving annual sales exceeding 30 million yuan [4] - A modern industrial park in Xinjiang has established a standardized supply chain, allowing domestic plums to reach retail outlets within 48 hours at half the price of imported plums [4] Scale of Cultivation - The shift from smallholder farming to large-scale cultivation has significantly reduced costs, exemplified by the expansion of sunshine rose grape cultivation from 100,000 acres in 2016 to 1.2 million acres in 2023, resulting in a price drop from the "hundred yuan range" to the "ten yuan range" [5] - The Yunnan blueberry industry has also seen a clustering effect, with foreign and domestic companies collaborating on standardized cultivation, leading to a return on investment period of just 8 months [5] Channel Innovation - The rise of fresh e-commerce and community group buying has compressed the premium space for imported fruits, with platforms like Pinduoduo and Hema attracting middle-class consumers through competitive pricing and fresh offerings [6] - A company is set to launch bulk shipments of Hainan durians in 2025, leveraging direct supply from Malaysian plantations to reduce intermediary costs [6] High-End Market Shift - In response to competition from domestic alternatives, imported fruits are pivoting towards high-end niche markets, with products like Thai durians and Japanese grapes targeting premium consumers [7] - Imported fruits are also innovating with new products, such as frozen avocado pulp from Peru and off-season stone fruits from South Africa, to fill market gaps [7] Brand Development Challenges - Despite the advantages in production and pricing, domestic fruits face challenges in brand development, with inconsistent quality leading to price drops for certain products [8] - Brands like "Jiawo Blueberry" and "Yantai Apple" have successfully established premium images through geographic certification and quality control [8] Supply Chain Integration - The competition between imported and domestic fruits has evolved into a contest of supply chain efficiency, with Cambodian durians achieving 48-hour delivery and Yunnan blueberries utilizing logistics to cover the entire country [9] - Future competition in the fruit industry will focus on cost reduction through technology, channel efficiency, and quality enhancement, with successful companies needing to build strong brand identities [9] Overcapacity and Quality Risks - The expansion of domestic fruit production carries risks of overcapacity, with growers expressing concerns about potential price drops below cost due to oversupply [10] - The 30% production drop of Guangdong lychees in 2024 due to cold weather highlights the vulnerabilities of single production areas [10] Deep Processing Opportunities - In a highly competitive fresh fruit market, deep processing is emerging as a new growth area, with increasing demand for products like dried fruits and fruit wines [11] - An enterprise focusing on durian deep processing has reported a 40% increase in annual profits [11] Global and Local Balance - The Chinese fruit market is increasingly integrated into the global trade system, with new varieties from South Africa and Colombia entering the market, while domestic fruits are also being exported to Southeast Asia [12] - Companies need to balance local demands with global resource integration, such as adapting blueberry varieties to Chinese tastes while promoting Hainan durians internationally [12]

本文字数：4836，阅读时长大约7分钟 作者 | 第一财经 栾立、乐琰、冯小芯 2025.08. 23 中国是水果消费大国。国家统计局数据显示，2024年全国居民人均鲜瓜果消费量为61.6千克，而在 10年前，这一数据为40.5千克，10年间增长超过50%。 近期，有关"2万月薪吃不起百果园"的话题冲上热搜，一时间引发热议。 第一财经记者在经过水果原产地、渠道和零售端多方面采访后了解到，每种水果的收成、定价都不 同，但在市场会有比较热销的关键品类，这些品类的价格是随行就市的，加上运输成本、冷链保鲜等 会有一定程度的加价。而百果园这类业态则还要加上果切服务费用，因此会让消费者觉得价高。 值得关注的是，不少关键水果品类都是进口水果为主，比如西梅、车厘子等，而随着国产同类水果的 种植加强，如今国产水果平替化正在崛起，部分进口高端水果的市场价格正在下降。 高价进口水果"跌落凡尘" 清晨时分，首衡高碑店国际农产品交易中心一片繁忙的景象，作为京津冀地区最大的"菜篮子"工 程，一挂挂货车将南来北往的蔬果在这里集中。 郭立秋也是市场中从事进口水果业务的大商之一，前前后后做了30多年水果生意，但近两年进口水 果市场的变化，让他 ...

近期，有关"2万月薪吃不起百果园"的话题冲上热搜，一时间引发热议。 第一财经记者在经过水果原产地、渠道和零售端多方面采访后了解到，每种水果的收成、定价都不同，但在市场会有比较热销的关键品类，这些品类的价格 是随行就市的，加上运输成本、冷链保鲜等会有一定程度的加价。而百果园这类业态则还要加上果切服务费用，因此会让消费者觉得价高。 值得关注的是，不少关键水果品类都是进口水果为主，比如西梅、车厘子等，而随着国产同类水果的种植加强，如今国产水果平替化正在崛起，部分进口高 端水果的市场价格正在下降。 高价进口水果"跌落凡尘" 清晨时分，首衡高碑店国际农产品交易中心一片繁忙的景象，作为京津冀地区最大的"菜篮子"工程，一挂挂货车将南来北往的蔬果在这里集中。 郭立秋也是市场中从事进口水果业务的大商之一，前前后后做了30多年水果生意，但近两年进口水果市场的变化，让他颇为感慨，过去价格高高在上的进口 水果价格纷纷跌落凡尘。比如今年的车厘子比去年要便宜2到3成，蓝莓、西梅等过去稀罕的水果也都进入"平价时代"。 中国是水果消费大国。国家统计局数据显示，2024年全国居民人均鲜瓜果消费量为61.6千克，而在10年前，这一数据为40.5 ...

国产水果平替化趋势崛起，部分进口高端水果价格下降。 中国是水果消费大国。国家统计局数据显示，2024年全国居民人均鲜瓜果消费量为61.6千克，而在10年前，这一数据为40.5千克，10年间增长超过50%。 近期，有关"2万月薪吃不起百果园"的话题冲上热搜，一时间引发热议。 第一财经记者在经过水果原产地、渠道和零售端多方面采访后了解到，每种水果的收成、定价都不同，但在市场会有比较热销的关键品类，这些品类的价格 是随行就市的，加上运输成本、冷链保鲜等会有一定程度的加价。而百果园这类业态则还要加上果切服务费用，因此会让消费者觉得价高。 值得关注的是，不少关键水果品类都是进口水果为主，比如西梅、车厘子等，而随着国产同类水果的种植加强，如今国产水果平替化正在崛起，部分进口高 端水果的市场价格正在下降。 高价进口水果"跌落凡尘" 清晨时分，首衡高碑店国际农产品交易中心一片繁忙的景象，作为京津冀地区最大的"菜篮子"工程，一挂挂货车将南来北往的蔬果在这里集中。 郭立秋也是市场中从事进口水果业务的大商之一，前前后后做了30多年水果生意，但近两年进口水果市场的变化，让他颇为感慨，过去价格高高在上的进口 水果价格纷纷跌落凡尘。比如 ...

1200斤鲜果、两 日售罄！伽师新 梅加速"南下"_ 南方+_南方plus "首批伽师新梅 到货两日，共 1200斤鲜果，已 经卖完了。"伽 师县南疆红农业 科技有限公司副 总经理方薪茹的 话语间，道出了 伽师新梅的热销 盛况。八月下 旬，伽师新梅迎 来销售旺季，在 广州、佛山、深 圳、江门等地水 果市场持续圈 粉，化身"时令 宠儿" 。 0:00 / 0:42 (优果优价，伽师新梅。时长共42秒) 从西域枝头到湾 区餐桌，伽师新 梅好评如潮 ——"个头很 大，单果克重基 本在25克以 上""果粉非常 厚""着色度达到 80%""好甜，好 新鲜"……作为 伽师县的特色农 产品，伽师新梅 口感润滑、香甜 浓郁，含糖量高 达24%，富含花 青素，是具有独 特风味的鲜果。 销区热度高涨， 五千公里外的伽 师县同样热闹。 伽师新梅米夏乡 交易中心开市， 满载新鲜伽师新 梅的冷链车启 运，发往北京、 浙江、广东、辽 宁等地；淘宝百 亿补贴"顶流集 疆·共荐新味"达 人团新疆溯源直 播首站落地伽 师，单日卖出 3.6万斤伽师新 梅。 走进伽师县，果 园枝头挂满新 梅，空气中弥漫 着香甜气息，吸 引了大量疆内外 客商。在米 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 declined and adjusted, with a weekly drop of 1.15%. According to preliminary estimates based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple production in the new season is expected to be 37.3664 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.35%. As of August 20, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 394,500 tons, a decrease of 65,600 tons from last week. Although the inventory of old apples is low, the arrival of early - maturing apples has impacted the inventory clearance speed, and the sales speed has slightly slowed down. The price of early - maturing apples is chaotic, and the transaction price has slightly declined. Overall, the low inventory of old apples still supports the price, but the increase in the listing volume of Gala apples restricts the price increase, showing a range - bound market. The support level for the Apple 2510 contract is around 7,900 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is around 8,200 yuan/ton [7]. - It is recommended to trade the Apple 2510 contract in the short - term within the range. Future trading should pay attention to the inventory clearance rate, consumption, and new crop production [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of Apple Futures 2510 declined and adjusted this week, with a weekly drop of 1.15% [7][11]. - **Market Outlook**: New - season apple production is expected to increase. Cold - storage inventory is decreasing, but the arrival of early - maturing apples has affected the clearance speed. The price of early - maturing apples is chaotic and has slightly declined. The low inventory of old apples supports the price, but the increase in Gala apples restricts the price increase, showing a range - bound market. The support and resistance levels for the Apple 2510 contract are 7,900 yuan/ton and 8,200 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Trade the Apple 2510 contract in the short - term within the range. Future trading should focus on the inventory clearance rate, consumption, and new crop production [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 fluctuated and declined, with a weekly drop of 1.15%. As of the end of the week, the net short position of the top 20 in Apple Futures was 0 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 0 [11][17]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 22, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade fruit farmer's goods of bagged Red Fuji in Qixia, Yantai, Shandong was 3.7 yuan/jin; the price of bagged Fuji apples of 75 and above in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.3 yuan/jin [20]. 3.3. Industry Situation and Options - **Supply Side**: As of August 20, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 394,500 tons, a decrease of 65,600 tons from last week. The arrival of early - maturing apples has affected the clearance speed. The storage capacity ratios in Shandong, Shaanxi, and Gansu have all decreased [25]. - **Demand Side**: As of August 21, the average daily number of trucks arriving at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong in the morning has increased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants is 0.4 yuan/jin. As of August 15, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.48 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.32%; the average wholesale price of apples was 9.66 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31%. The weekly average wholesale price of 5 kinds of fruits was 6.94 yuan/kg, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00%. In July 2023, China's fresh apple exports were 50,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25% [29][33][37][40]. - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of apples this week is presented in a chart, but no specific data is given [41]. 3.4. Futures - Stock Correlation - Information about the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit is presented in a chart, but no specific data is given [43].

天眼查App显示，近日，眉山红乐果包装有限公司成立，法定代表人为杨承涛，注册资本50万人民币， 经营范围为一般项目：包装服务；水果种植；新鲜水果零售；新鲜水果批发；食用农产品批发；食用农 产品初加工；非食用农产品初加工；低温仓储（不含危险化学品等需许可审批的项目）；化肥销售；塑 料制品销售；塑料包装箱及容器制造；非居住房地产租赁；纸制品制造；纸制品销售。（除依法须经批 准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动）。 ...

大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 08 月 21 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinas tock.com.cn 苹果日报 第一部分 市场信息 | 现货价格 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日价 | 涨跌 | 指标 | 今日价格 | 上一工作日价 | 涨跌 | | 格 | | | | | | 格 | | | 富士苹果价格指数 | 110.29 | 110.23 | 0.06 | 洛川半商品纸袋70 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 0.00 | | 栖霞 一、二级纸袋 80 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 0.00 | 沂源纸袋70 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 0.00 | | 蓬莱 一、二级纸袋 80 | 3.95 | 3.95 | 0.00 | 6种水果平均批发价 | 6.93 | 6.88 | 0.05 | | 期货价格 | | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Apple Weekly Report: New Apples Perform Mediocrely, Prices Stable with a Slight Decline [1] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [1] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F3013727 [1] - Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0014425 [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Group 3: Core Views - The current market inventory is low, and the market demand is in the off - season, with general spot sales. The new - season apple production is expected to change little compared to this season. The recent weakening of early - maturing apple prices puts pressure on the market [17]. - Unilateral trading is expected to be mainly in a wide - range oscillation. Arbitrage trading is advised to wait and see. Options trading is also advised to wait and see [16][17]. Group 4: Spot Analysis - In Shandong, the inventory Fuji in Shandong's production areas had slightly faster but still small - volume sales this week due to the difficulty in organizing large quantities of early - maturing high - quality goods. In Shaanxi, early - maturing Gala apples in Weinan and Tongchuan were on the market, but the quality was uneven. In the sales areas, the principle of high - quality apples getting high prices was obvious, and the sales of early - maturing and inventory Fuji were both mediocre. Next week, early - maturing bagged Gala apples in northern Shaanxi will be supplied in larger quantities [7]. - In Shandong, the overall trading volume in Shandong's production areas has not increased significantly. Due to slow terminal digestion, merchants are not actively restocking. Most fruit farmers and holders sell at the market price, and some are eager to sell. The remaining supply in Shandong is concentrated in Qixia and Penglai. In Qixia, the price of 80 first - and second - grade slice - red apples is 3.30 - 4.00 yuan per catty, 80 first - and second - grade striped apples is 3.50 - 4.50 yuan per catty, general goods is 2.80 - 3.30 yuan per catty, and third - grade is 2.00 - 2.50 yuan per catty [7]. - In Shaanxi, the inventory in Shaanxi is mainly self - digested by merchants. The early - maturing bagged Gala apples in Weinan and Tongchuan have uneven quality, and the price is polarized. In Luochuan, the bagged Gala apples are not yet on the market in large quantities, and the price is expected to start high and end low. In Tongchuan, the reference price of 70 starting bagged Gala apples is around 3.8 - 4.0 yuan per catty. In Weinan, the general goods of 70 starting bagged Gala apples in Gan Jing Town are around 3.5 - 3.7 yuan per catty, and excellent goods are around 4.2 - 4.3 yuan per catty [7]. Group 5: Supply Analysis - As of August 14, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 3.50%, a decrease of 0.41 percentage points in this period (20250807 - 0813), 2.8 percentage points lower than the same period last year, and the de - stocking rate was 94.50%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 5.85%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points, and the overall cold - storage shipment was lower than last week. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio was 3.14%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points [12]. - As of August 13, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the national main production areas was 46.01 tons, a decrease of 7.58 tons compared to last week, and the sales speed slowed down slightly [12]. Group 6: Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of early - morning arrivals decreased slightly compared to last week, with an average of about 15 cars per day. The mainstream price of Luochuan 80 late Fuji in baskets is 4.5 - 5.5 yuan per catty, 75 starting in baskets is 4.3 - 5.0 yuan per catty, and in boxes is 5.5 - 6.5 yuan per catty [15]. - On August 14, the average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits was 6.95 yuan per kilogram, slightly lower than last Friday, and it was at the median of the same period in recent years [15]. - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of Qixia 80 first - and second - grade storage merchants was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty compared to last week [15]. - This week, the market arrival volume continued to be low, significantly lower than the same period last year. The arrival volume in the second half of the week increased, and it is expected to continue to increase in the later stage. The arrival volume in the Guangzhou Chalong market was about 132 cars, an increase of 1 car compared to last week [15]. Group 7: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: The new - season apple production is expected to change little compared to this season. The recent weakening of early - maturing apple prices puts pressure on the market, and it is expected to be mainly in a wide - range oscillation [17]. - Arbitrage trading: Wait and see [17]. - Options trading: Wait and see [16] Group 8: Weekly Data Tracking Apple Supply and Demand - Information presented in the form of data charts about apple consumption, exports, planting area, and production from 2018 - 2023 [21] Inventory and Shipment - Data on national and regional (Shandong, Shaanxi) cold - storage inventory and shipment trends from 2016/17 - 2024/25 [24][26] Spreads and Basis - Current and previous prices, price changes of futures contracts (AP01, AP05, AP10), and basis and spread data between different contracts and spot prices [28] Spot and Futures Prices - Current and previous prices, price changes of apple spot prices (Fuji apple price index, Qixia first - and second - grade bagged 80, etc.) and futures prices [29]