Workflow
农药退税新政
icon
Search documents
农药退税新政或推动“反内卷”,有望提振价格长期加速转型
Guotou Securities· 2026-01-15 07:08
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market - A" and the rating is maintained [5]. Core Insights - The new pesticide export tax rebate policy is expected to drive a "reverse involution" in the industry, potentially boosting prices and accelerating long-term transformation [1]. - The cancellation of the export tax rebate for certain pesticide products will increase export costs, leading companies to have a strong willingness to maintain prices [2]. - The policy aims to accelerate the elimination of low-quality production capacity and guide the industry towards a high-quality development direction by shifting the export structure from raw materials to formulations [3]. Summary by Sections Short-term Outlook - The upcoming spring farming season and the cancellation of the export tax rebate will provide dual support for pesticide prices, as companies may increase prices to maintain profitability [2]. Long-term Outlook - The domestic pesticide industry is experiencing high growth in investment and new projects, with an expected increase in production capacity of approximately 1.4 million tons per year from 2021 to 2024 [3]. - The policy is expected to improve capacity utilization rates, which are currently low at 66% compared to the national average for large-scale industries [3]. Industry Performance - The industry has shown strong relative performance with a 1-month return of 8.2%, a 3-month return of 10.1%, and a 12-month return of 26.1% [8].