扬农化工 20260226 摘要 税务总局政策调整或致农药出口结构性变化，2026 年 4 月起部分农药 及中间体出口退税取消，或刺激 2026 年一季度"抢出口"需求，短期 提振农药需求。 草甘膦、草铵膦等农药品种虽价格未明显上涨，但库存已偏紧，开工率 高企。草铵膦行业经历内卷后，库存低位，开工率超 90%，3-4 月或迎 涨价窗口。 2025 年以来，农药行业资本扩张放缓，新增产能减少。行业协会倡导 规范生产，安全监管趋严，或加速存量产能优化与出清，供给端约束有 望强化。 扬农化工在行业下行周期展现经营韧性，2024 年利润约 12 亿元。江苏 优嘉基地盈利能力强劲，2024 年及 2025 年上半年净利率超 15%，体 现先进制造优势。 扬农化工中长期增长动力来自葫芦岛基地，一期资本开支约 35 亿元， 分两阶段投产。一阶段已基本满产，二阶段 2026 年进入放量期，目前 已满产产品均盈利。 Q&A 2026 年一季度农药行业需求端出现了哪些边际变化，出口退税政策调整对需 求节奏可能带来怎样的影响？ 从季节性看，春节后下游通常存在较为明显的补库行为，春季本身属于农药需 求旺季。2026 年相较往年存在额 ...

农药涨价品种及龙头企业分析 20260226 摘要 烯草酮和氯虫苯甲酰胺因供给侧冲击在 2025 年价格显著上涨，而草甘 膦作为代表性除草剂，价格年内波动后回落，后续价格受海外政策和国 内供给约束影响，预计有望回升至 26,000 元左右。 2025 年农药行业供需错配突出，吡虫啉等品种因扩产导致结构性过剩， 丙硫菌唑与戊唑醇等杀菌剂设计产能持续超过市场需求，整体价格承压。 2026 年初连续安全事故促使监管层加强对农化市场治理和产能控制的 决心，预计 2026 年明确方向与目标，2027 年进入实质执行阶段，销 售收入 10 亿元以下的企业面临更大压力。 草铵膦价格已大幅下降，主要由于供给端扩产，即使上涨，空间也有限。 烯草酮在 2025 年已大幅上涨，阿维菌素预计仍可缓慢上涨，甲维盐受 专利约束影响，2026 年价格或将继续上涨。 高效氯氟氰菊酯与氯氟氰菊酯价格处于近十年低位，价格能否上行取决 于后续产能控制能否落地。麦草畏短期判断价格有望上涨 1 万以上至 9 万，长期看可到 10 万。 Q&A 2025 年农药行业整体供需与价格表现如何，哪些品种出现了显著涨价，背后 的驱动因素是什么？ 2025 年中 ...

1、AI应用形态持续升级，以OpenClaw为代表，模型从"对话工具"向"任务执行体"进 化，推动算力需求由云端向本地终端延伸；AI能力向端侧渗透已从概念进入应用验证阶 段，端侧通信与算力模组成为连接算力与场景核心载体，公司作为国内最早切入智能模 组赛道的企业之一，已基于MT200平台与AIMO系列产品完成OpenClaw的本地部署与 调用，将直接受益于AI应用落地加速。 2、端侧算力能力的提升叠加操作系统及应用生态适配完善，使AI推理逐步实现本地化 部署；产业趋势上看，端侧AI正成为继云侧算力之后的重要增量方向，模组厂商在通信 能力、算力整合与系统适配方面的综合能力价值凸显；作为深耕高通生态的模组厂商， 公司有望充分受益于端侧AI硬件升级周期。 端侧AI模组龙头！深度受益AI Agent催化的终端算 力需求爆发，旗下产品已完成OpenClaw的本地部 署与调用——0301评级日报 2026/03/01 16:30 端侧AI正成为继云侧算力之后的重要增量方向，模组厂商在通信能力、算力整合与系统适配方面 的综合能力价值凸显。 【本文来自持牌证券机构，不代表平台观点，请独立判断和决策】 近期OpenAI Oper ...

利民股份（002734.SZ） 优于大市 与拜耳签订 16 亿元供货合同，持续深化与大客户合作 公司与国际农化巨头拜耳签订 6 年期 16 亿元重大合同。利民股份于 2026 年 2 月 26 日与 BAYER S.A.（拜耳）签订农用化学品长期供货合同，首期 3 年， 若无异议自动续期 3 年，合计最长 6 年。按照拜耳年度采购量预估，前 3 年 合同金额约 8 亿元，6 年合计约 16 亿元，最终以实际订单为准。拜耳与先正 达、巴斯夫、科迪华为全球农化行业四大跨国公司，在新农药创制、终端制 剂品牌、销售渠道等方面具备强大的竞争优势，据世界农化网，2024 年拜耳 的植保产品销售额达 110.86 亿美元，排名全球第二。 BAYER S.A 注册地为巴西圣保罗州，而拉丁美洲是拜耳仅次于北美洲的第二 大销售区域，杀菌剂销售额较大，利民股份等中国农药企业在拉丁美洲杀菌 剂市场具有较强的竞争优势，2025 年中国出口到巴西的杀菌剂数量较 2022 年大幅增长 833.38%。此次利民股份与拜耳签订长期供货合同，是对利民股 份在代森锰锌等杀菌剂品类上的龙头地位与供货可靠性的认可，我们预计未 来利民股份向拜耳供应量将 ...

北京时间今天晚上10点半，全球AI投资者将关注一件事，即Anthropic举行的在线直播活动。 在本次直播活动中，Anthropic将展示其AI助手Claude的最新功能，包括Claude的实时演示、与 Claude协作的场景等。此外，Anthropic还将发布新产品。 最近一段时间，市场对人工智能冲击传统商业模式充满担忧，这种担忧还包括研究机构Citrini Research上周末发布的一份报告。 该报告列举了AI可能对全球经济多个领域带来的风险，并特别点名食品配送服务和信用卡公司将 面临困境。 AI冲击的担忧，使得美股软件股及金融股迎来资金的大幅抛售。其中，IBM股价创下自2000年10月 以来的最大单日跌幅。 达哥之所以提到Anthropic的直播活动是一件比较重要的事，主要原因在于其今晚的产品展示对市 场焦虑到底会起到缓和作用还是加剧作用。 我们回到市场。 今天，A股市场迎来马年开门红行情。截至收盘，上证指数上涨0.87%，深证成指、创业板指数分 别上涨1.36%、0.99%。 整个市场的成交额达到22184亿元，较上一个交易日放量2193亿元。个股涨多跌少，超过4000只个 股上涨，个股涨跌幅的中位 ...

截至2月24日11点16分，上证指数涨1.15%，深证成指涨1.92%，创业板指涨1.99%。ETF方面，粮食ETF 广发（159587）涨2.84%，成分股和邦生物（603077.SH）、川发龙蟒（002312.SZ）涨停，泰禾股份 （301665.SZ）、云图控股（002539.SZ）、湖北宜化（000422.SZ）、云天化（600096.SH）、兴发集 团（600141.SH）、新安股份（600596.SH）、扬农化工（600486.SH）、川恒股份（002895.SZ）涨超 5%。 消息方面，据报道，春季田管有序推进，保障粮食稳产丰产。当前冬小麦由南向北陆续返青，是抓好春 季田管的关键时期。主产区因地制宜落实各项举措，保障粮食稳产丰产。随着小麦进入返青期，用肥高 峰期即将到来，全国供销合作社系统已采购肥料2000万吨，并抓好农资跨区域调运，加快下摆到基层网 点，确保农资供应及时到位。 国投证券表示，截至2025年底，转基因玉米种植已扩展至13个省份，全年种植面积达3000万亩-5000万 亩，占全国玉米总面积的10%-15%，在政策持续推进下2026年渗透率有望进一步提升，转基因种子价格 溢价将带动相 ...

Core Viewpoint - The companies in Alxa High-tech Zone are maintaining production during the Spring Festival, ensuring stability and efficiency while providing support and welfare for employees working during the holiday [1][2][3] Group 1: Company Operations - Inner Mongolia Lingsheng Crop Technology Co., Ltd. is operating at full capacity, producing products like glyphosate and azoxystrobin, with a focus on quality and safety [1] - Alxa Meng Huhong Energy Group Co., Ltd. is also maintaining production during the Spring Festival, with automated production lines running smoothly and workers diligently fulfilling their roles [2] Group 2: Employee Welfare - The companies are providing holiday benefits such as food and gifts to employees working during the Spring Festival, ensuring they feel valued and supported [1][2] - Special arrangements for meals and accommodations have been made to enhance the festive atmosphere for employees on duty [2][3] Group 3: Government Support - Local government leaders are actively visiting companies to understand their needs and provide solutions to operational challenges during the holiday [3] - The Alxa High-tech Zone is implementing a 24-hour duty system to ensure continuous support for businesses, addressing any issues that arise promptly [3]

Investment Rating - The report gives the company an "Accumulate" rating with a target price of 14.24 RMB based on a 30x PE for 2026 [3]. Core Views - The company is a dual leader in the silicone and glyphosate industries, with performance expected to recover against a backdrop of reduced competition [1]. - The company has pioneered a circular economy model utilizing chlorine, phosphorus, and silicon, achieving over 90% utilization rates for these elements [1][21]. - The company has a 7% market share in the domestic silicone market, ranking fifth, and a 10% share in glyphosate, ranking third [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Overview - The company operates in three main sectors: crop protection, silicone materials, and new energy materials, with a focus on integrating phosphorus and silicon materials [14]. - The crop protection segment has developed a comprehensive system covering intermediates, active ingredients, and formulations, contributing to food security [14]. - The silicone materials segment has a complete industrial chain from upstream silicon mining to downstream product manufacturing, with products sold in over 130 countries [14]. 2. Silicone Materials - The supply-demand dynamics are improving, leading to a price recovery for silicone products, with DMC prices rising from 11,000 RMB/ton to 14,000 RMB/ton [1]. - The company has a silicone monomer capacity of 500,000 tons, with about 80% used for self-produced downstream products [1]. - The company’s downstream silicone capacity exceeds 200,000 tons, with a conversion rate above 45% [1]. 3. Agricultural Chemicals - Glyphosate prices are expected to improve due to the promotion of genetically modified crops, with domestic capacity at 813,000 tons, accounting for nearly 70% of global capacity [2]. - The company has an existing glyphosate capacity of 80,000 tons, with a formulation conversion rate above 70% [2]. - The product portfolio includes over 100 varieties of herbicides, insecticides, fungicides, and growth regulators, supporting an integrated development model [2]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 147 billion, 171 billion, and 186 billion RMB, with corresponding net profits of 1.1 billion, 6.4 billion, and 9.1 billion RMB [3]. - The company is expected to see a significant profit recovery, with net profit growth rates of 113%, 484%, and 42% for the respective years [3]. - The report highlights the cyclical nature of the company's earnings, with a current focus on recovery from recent performance lows [3][24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 14.24 RMB based on a 30x PE for 2026 [3]. Core Views - The company is a dual leader in the silicone and glyphosate industries, with performance expected to recover against a backdrop of reduced competition [1]. - The company has pioneered a circular economy model utilizing chlorine, phosphorus, and silicon, achieving over 90% utilization rates for these elements [1][21]. - The company’s revenue and profit have been under pressure due to price declines in recent years, but improvements in supply and demand dynamics are anticipated to drive performance recovery [1][2]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Overview - The company operates in three main sectors: crop protection, silicone materials, and new energy materials, with a focus on integrating phosphorus and silicon materials [14]. - The crop protection segment has developed a comprehensive system covering intermediates, active ingredients, and formulations, contributing to food security [14]. - The silicone materials segment has a complete industrial chain from upstream silicon mining to downstream product manufacturing, with applications in over 130 countries [14]. 2. Silicone Materials - The company’s silicone segment is expected to benefit from improving supply-demand dynamics, with prices showing signs of recovery [1][54]. - The domestic market for silicone has a strong demand base, with a compound annual growth rate of over 10% in recent years [54]. - The company has a silicone monomer capacity of 500,000 tons, with approximately 80% used for self-produced downstream products [1]. 3. Glyphosate Sector - Glyphosate prices are expected to improve due to the promotion of genetically modified crops, with domestic production capacity constrained by policy [2]. - The company has a glyphosate active ingredient capacity of 80,000 tons, with a formulation conversion rate exceeding 70% [2]. - The company has developed a diverse product portfolio in the agricultural sector, including over 100 varieties of herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides [2]. 4. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 147 billion RMB in 2025, with a net profit of 1.1 billion RMB, reflecting a significant recovery from previous lows [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to grow from 0.081 RMB in 2025 to 0.673 RMB by 2027 [3]. - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability, with net profit expected to increase by 484% in 2026 [3]. 5. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company holds a 7% market share in the domestic silicone market, ranking fifth, and a 10% share in glyphosate, ranking third [1]. - The company’s revenue structure has shifted, with the agricultural segment's contribution increasing from 41% in 2020 to 49% in the first half of 2025 [24]. - The company’s profitability has shown volatility, particularly in the silicone materials segment, which has experienced significant fluctuations in gross margins [24].

Group 1 - The chemical industry is experiencing favorable policies, particularly in the pesticide sector, with 94 pesticide varieties, including glyphosate, set to enjoy VAT export tax rebates starting April 1, 2026, which is expected to lower costs for pesticide companies and boost export demand [1] - As a listed company in the agrochemical sector, Bluestar Bio-chemical (002513) may benefit indirectly from the overall improvement in industry sentiment due to these policies [1] - The chemical sector is showing active performance, with price increases in disperse dyes driving related stocks up, although Bluestar Bio-chemical's main business focuses on pesticides, necessitating attention to the policy's specific impact on its operations [1] Group 2 - In the past seven trading days, Bluestar Bio-chemical's stock price has shown a downward trend, closing at 7.25 yuan on February 13, down 6.45% from a high of 7.75 yuan on February 9, with a price fluctuation of 7.84% during this period [2] - On February 13, there was a net outflow of 4.2618 million yuan from major investors, while retail investors showed a net inflow [2] - Technically, the stock is currently near the middle band of the 20-day Bollinger Bands, with a short-term resistance level at 7.78 yuan and a support level at 6.83 yuan, while the MACD indicator suggests a cautious market sentiment [2]