证券代码：301035 证券简称：润丰股份 编号：2025-003 山东潍坊润丰化工股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 | 投资者关系活 | 特定对象调研 | 分析师会议 | | --- | --- | --- | | 动类别 | □媒体采访 | 业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 | □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | 其他 电话会议 | | 参与单位名称 | 交银施罗德 | 杨金金、张明晓、郭若、王丽婧； | | | 中庚基金 | 刘晟、王啊涛、胡坤、陆伟成、薛潇、杨舜杰、周汝昂； | | 及人员情况 | 远信投资 | 周伟锋、黄垲锐、谢振东； | | | 巨杉资产 | 齐东超、王黛丝、王慧娟； | | | 招商基金 | 陈海波、贾仁栋、李恭敏、陆文凯； | | | 国泰基金 | 曾彪、戴计辉、钱晓杰、任一林； | | | 光大证券 | 胡星月、饶于晨、应超、周家诺； | | | 东北证券 | 刘佳怡、孙鹏程、王家鑫、郭子瑜； | | | 天风证券 | 唐婕； 鹏华基金 范晶伟、杨浩； | | | 东方证券 | 万里扬； 申万宏源 范一洲、屈玲玉、周超； | | | 中金证券 | 吴頔； 国 ...

股票代码：002734 股票简称：利民股份 利民控股集团股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-08-18 | ☑ 投资者关系活动类别 | 特定对象调研 | □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | --- | | | □媒体采访 | □业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 | □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | □其他 | | 参与单位名称及人员姓名 | 格林基金（杨舒铭）、申万化工（周超）、开源证券（张晓锋）、长江证券 | | | | （魏邈、徐静）、国信证券（王新航）、正圆投资（吴晓思）、玄卜投资（夏 | | | | 一）、华创证券（吴宇）、天风证券（唐婕）、华安证券（刘天其）、泰信 | | | | 基金（曲奕丞）、森锦投资（黄裕金）、申九资产（邱正好）、犁得尔（马 | | | | 骄叶）、国海证券（王海飞）、九泰基金（林柏川）、聂丰基金（刘威）、 | | | | 汇添富基金（刘高晓）、太平养老（姬静远）、合丰基金（赵晓莹）、万盛 | | | | 股份（阮丹丹）、申万宏源（李彦宏）、华安资管（李峰名）、华西化工（王 | | | | 丽丽）、华安资管（刘涛）、网上参与者 | | | 时间 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry [2] Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from anti-involution policies aimed at curbing disorderly competition and eliminating outdated production capacity, which may lead to a recovery in industrial product prices and positively impact PPI and CPI [6][11][17] - The report highlights the significant influence of the energy and chemical sectors on PPI, with their price fluctuations directly affecting overall industrial inflation levels [16] - The industry is under pressure from declining product prices and reduced capacity utilization, leading to a strong demand for anti-involution measures [17] - The current valuation of the chemical industry is at a historical low, providing substantial upside potential as the sector is expected to recover from its cyclical bottom [17][19] Summary by Sections 1. Importance of Inflation Recovery - The report emphasizes that the chemical sector is a crucial lever for inflation recovery, as evidenced by the PPI's continuous decline and the need for policy intervention to combat deflationary pressures [6][11] 2. Reasons to Focus on Chemicals - The energy and chemical sectors account for 25%-30% of PPI, making their price recovery vital for overall inflation [16] - The industry faces significant profitability challenges, with nearly 25% of chemical companies reporting losses in 2024 [17] 3. Paths for Anti-Involution in Chemicals 3.1. Active Approach: Industry Self-Regulation - Certain sub-industries, such as polyester filament and sucralose, are attempting to improve profitability through supply-side collaboration, benefiting from high concentration and low profitability [27][29] - The report identifies key chemical products likely to benefit from self-regulation, including polyester filament, polyester bottle chips, and organic silicon [29][31] 3.2. Passive Approach: Policy-Driven Industry Improvement - The report outlines a dual-track policy framework focusing on optimizing existing capacity and strictly controlling new projects to enhance the competitive landscape [27][31] - Historical experiences suggest that effective policy measures will include phasing out outdated facilities and enforcing stricter environmental regulations [27][31]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that polyester filament enterprises are reducing production to support prices, leading to a decline in industry inventory [4][21] - The market for glyphosate and glufosinate is experiencing tight supply, which is expected to continue driving price increases [4][24] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The chemical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.09% this week [16] - The CCPI (China Chemical Product Price Index) reported 4034 points, down 0.49% from last week [19] Key Industry Insights - Polyester filament prices increased by 1.50% to 6,750 CNY/ton, with a price spread expansion of 11.95% [4][21] - Glyphosate prices rose to an average of 26,699 CNY/ton, up 1.14% from the previous week [4][24] - Glufosinate prices remained stable at around 44,500 CNY/ton, with a stable supply situation [4][26] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include leading chemical companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Hengli Petrochemical [6][29] - Beneficiary stocks include Jiangshan Co., Hebang Biotechnology, and Xin'an Chemical [6][28] Product Tracking - Viscose staple fiber prices increased by 0.78% to 12,950 CNY/ton [31] - The price of ammonium phosphate remained stable, while urea prices decreased by 1.85% to 1,747 CNY/ton [41][42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Views - The chemical sector is experiencing a recovery in both prices and demand, benefiting leading companies with significant scale advantages and cost efficiencies [8] - The domestic tire industry shows strong competitiveness, with scarce growth targets worth attention [3] - The consumption electronics sector is expected to gradually recover, with upstream material companies likely to benefit [4] - The phosphorous chemical sector is tightening due to environmental policies and increasing demand from the new energy sector [5] - The vitamin market is facing supply disruptions, particularly for Vitamin A and E, due to BASF's force majeure [8] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.7%, the ChiNext Index increased by 8.58%, and the CSI 300 Index went up by 2.37% [14] - The CITIC Basic Chemical Index increased by 3.16%, while the Shenwan Chemical Index rose by 2.46% [15] Key Industry Dynamics - Covestro has cut its TDI supply to the Chinese market by 15%, exacerbating supply tightness [3] - Hengli Petrochemical's subsidiaries are merging to optimize management and improve operational efficiency [3] Investment Themes - **Tire Sector**: Domestic companies are becoming increasingly competitive, with recommended stocks including Sailun Tire, Senqcia, General Motors, and Linglong Tire [3] - **Consumer Electronics**: Recovery in demand is anticipated, with a focus on upstream material companies like Dongcai Technology and Stik [4] - **Phosphorous Chemicals**: Supply constraints due to environmental regulations and rising demand from new energy sectors suggest a tightening market [5] - **Fluorine Chemicals**: The reduction of production quotas for second-generation refrigerants supports stable profitability [5] - **Textile Sector**: Polyester filament inventory depletion is expected to benefit companies like Tongkun and New Fengming [5] Sub-industry Performance - The polyurethane sector is seeing stable prices for pure MDI and a slight decline for polymer MDI [27][32] - The tire industry shows a mixed performance with full steel tire production increasing while semi-steel tire production is declining [47][50] - The pesticide market is experiencing price fluctuations, with glyphosate prices rising slightly [52] Price Trends - The average price of urea is reported at 1762.6 RMB/ton, showing a decrease of 1.74% [60] - The price of phosphoric acid remains stable, with diammonium phosphate at 3999.38 RMB/ton [64] - The price of vitamins A and E remains unchanged at 64 RMB/kg and 67.5 RMB/kg respectively [76][77]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [6][22]. Core Insights - The company has experienced significant growth in its performance for the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 2.452 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.69%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 269 million yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 747.13% [1][9]. - The growth is attributed to rising sales and prices of key products, effective cost control, and increased investment income from affiliated companies [1][9]. - The company has successfully registered several key products in the Brazilian market, which is expected to enhance overseas sales in the coming years [2][17]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.452 billion yuan, a 6.69% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 269 million yuan, a 747.13% increase year-on-year [1][9]. - The second quarter alone saw a net profit of 161 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 49.07% [1][9]. - The pesticide business generated 2.2 billion yuan in revenue, a 4.63% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 26.45%, up 8.71 percentage points [10]. Product Performance - The revenue from fungicides increased by 12.36% year-on-year, while insecticides saw a revenue increase of 5.19% year-on-year [10]. - The market prices for key products such as甲维盐 and 阿维菌素 have risen significantly, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2][18]. - The company has a strong market presence in Brazil, with successful registrations of several key products, which is expected to drive future sales growth [2][17]. New Business Developments - The company has accelerated its new business layout, including the acquisition of a 51% stake in 德彦智创, which focuses on AI-driven pesticide development [3][21]. - Strategic partnerships with various technology companies are being established to develop innovative agricultural products, enhancing the company's growth potential [3][21]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 529 million yuan, 588 million yuan, and 648 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.26 yuan, 1.40 yuan, and 1.54 yuan [4][22]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 17.2, 15.5, and 14.1 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][22].

2025 年 08 月 11 日 开源晨会 0811 | | | | ——晨会纪要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 及创业板指数近1年走势 | | 吴梦迪（分析师） | | 沪深300 | | 创业板指 | wumengdi@kysec.cn | | 80% | | | 证书编号：S0790521070001 | | 60% | | | 观点精粹 | | 40% 20% | | | 总量视角 | | 0% | | | 【宏观经济】充分释放宏观政策效果——宏观周报-20250810 | | -20% | | | 【宏观经济】实物价格表现好于服务——宏观经济点评-20250809 | | 2024-08 | 2024-12 2025-04 | | 【策略】市场的双轮驱动：科技 & PPI 交易——投资策略周报-20250809 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | | | | | | | 【策略】市场的双轮驱动系列二——全球科技共舞——投资策略专题-20250808 | | 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | | | 【固定收益】把握票息与利差压缩的"鱼尾"行情——固收专题-202508 ...

Group 1 - The 12th World Congress of Chemical Engineering and the 21st Asia-Pacific Chemical Alliance Conference opened, highlighting China's position as the largest producer and consumer in the global chemical industry [1] - In the fine chemical sector, China's revenue accounts for 50% of the global market share [1] Group 2 - Comprehensive leading companies include Wanhua Chemical, the largest global MDI producer, and New Chemical Materials, which covers the entire industrial chain of polyurethane, petrochemicals, new materials, and fine chemicals [4] - Other leading companies in specific segments include Longbai Group, the world's largest titanium dioxide producer, and Yuntianhua, a domestic leader in phosphate resources [4][5] Group 3 - Potential companies include Yuanli Technology, which has the world's largest production capacity for dimethyl adipate, and Zhongyan Chemical, the global leader in sodium metal production [5]

Core Viewpoint - The pesticide industry is experiencing a bottom rebound in prices after the overseas inventory destocking, indicating a gradual recovery in industry prosperity [1][6]. Industry Overview - As of July 27, the domestic raw material price index for pesticides is 75.35, reflecting a 4.3% increase from the 25-year low, signaling a recovery in the pesticide industry [1][6]. - Export demand remains strong, with the peak season for exports to the U.S. from year-end to April and to South America from June to August [1][6]. - In the first half of 2025, the export volumes of herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides were 122.9 million tons, 260.9 million tons, and 132.5 million tons, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 13.6%, 31.9%, and 24.4% [1][6]. Policy Developments - The China Pesticide Industry Association launched a three-year action plan called "Zheng Feng Zhi Juan" on July 24, aiming to improve market order and product quality by 2027 [2][4]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs announced the "One Product, One Certificate" policy, which will be implemented on January 1, 2026, to regulate the pesticide market [2][5]. Industry Challenges - The pesticide industry is facing severe internal competition, characterized by overcapacity and price wars among distributors and retailers [3][4]. - The production capacity for certain pesticides far exceeds global demand, leading to unsustainable competition [3]. - The low cost and quick registration process for similar formulations contribute to intensified price competition [3]. Future Outlook - The ongoing "Zheng Feng Zhi Juan" and "One Product, One Certificate" policies are expected to catalyze a recovery in the pesticide industry, potentially leading to a favorable market cycle [6]. - Optimized product structures are anticipated, particularly for glyphosate, glufosinate, chlorantraniliprole, and other key products, driven by regulatory changes and market demand [6]. Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Yangnong Chemical (600486.SH), Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035.SZ), Xin'an Chemical (600596.SH), Jiangshan Co., Ltd. (600389.SH), and others [7].

"反内卷"主题专家会议：草甘膦&草铵膦 20250731 摘要 反内卷政策、孟山都事件、南美春耕需求及气候变暖共同推动草甘膦价 格上涨，目前价格已从 2.3 万元涨至 2.6 万元，短期内预计在 2.6 万元 左右波动，年底前或有望进一步上涨至 2.75 万元至 2.8 万元。 孟山都事件可能导致全球草甘膦供应减少 38 万吨，利好中国企业如兴 发和福华通达，但短期内难以完全替代。若孟山都选择和解，市场供应 格局变化较小，但利润或受影响，国内企业仍有机会。 全球草甘膦总产能约 140 万吨，实际产量约 117 万吨，需求量约 90- 100 万吨。中国出口量占总产量 80%，主要销往南美洲，占比 70%。 孟山都产能主要销往南美、东南亚和欧洲。 中国草甘膦企业成本低于孟山都，净利润每吨低 500 元。中国企业主要 采用 IDA 法和甘氨酸法，IDA 法成本较高但更环保，被大型企业采用。 技术成熟度和利润率仍有提升空间。 国内草甘膦总产能 85 万吨，未来计划新增 30 万吨，但企业仍在观望。 海外主要企业包括孟山都（38 万吨）、先正达（10-12 万吨）和韩农 （7-8 万吨）。 Q&A 草甘膦价格自 20 ...