Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [5][9]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer supply and demand are tightly balanced, with international prices rising. China, being the largest consumer, has a high import dependency exceeding 60%. The domestic production of potassium chloride is expected to decrease by 2.7% in 2024, while imports are projected to reach a historical high of 12.633 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [1][24]. - The long-term price of phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs, coupled with growing demand from new applications like lithium iron phosphate [2][50]. - The price of glyphosate has shown volatility, with a significant increase during the South American planting season, followed by a decline due to high North American inventories [4][49]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - The global potassium fertilizer market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to recover due to resource scarcity and geopolitical factors affecting supply chains [1][44]. - Domestic potassium chloride prices have shown an upward trend, with the average price at 3,282 RMB/ton by the end of December, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30.45% [1][40]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining high at around 1,040 RMB/ton in Hubei and 970 RMB/ton in Yunnan [2][50]. - The production capacity of lithium iron phosphate is projected to grow significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 48.59% expected in 2025 [2][51]. Pesticides - The glyphosate market is expected to see price improvements in 2026, following a period of price fluctuations influenced by seasonal demand and inventory levels [4][49]. - The report highlights several key companies in the pesticide sector, including Yangnong Chemical and Lier Chemical, which are positioned to benefit from rising prices and demand [8][49]. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include focusing on companies with strong potassium and phosphate resources, such as Yara International and Yun Tianhua, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing demand and supply dynamics in the agricultural chemical sector [7][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [5][9]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer supply and demand are tightly balanced, with international prices rising. China, being the largest consumer, has a high import dependency exceeding 60%. The domestic production of potassium chloride is expected to decrease by 2.7% in 2024, while imports are projected to reach a historical high of 12.633 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [1][24]. - The long-term price center for phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs, alongside growing demand from new applications like lithium iron phosphate. The domestic supply-demand situation for phosphate rock is tightening, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining elevated [2][50]. - The price of glyphosate has shown volatility, with a peak during the South American planting season and a subsequent decline due to high North American inventories. The report anticipates a recovery in glyphosate prices in 2026 [4][49]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - The global potassium fertilizer market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with prices expected to recover due to resource scarcity and geopolitical factors affecting supply chains [1][44]. - Domestic potassium chloride prices are projected to stabilize around 3,100-3,200 CNY/ton, with expectations of maintaining high inventory levels for food security [24][40]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock market is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance, with prices for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining above 900 CNY/ton for over three years. The report highlights the increasing demand from lithium battery applications [2][50]. - Phosphate chemical prices have shown upward trends for products like lithium iron phosphate, while glyphosate prices have decreased significantly [49][51]. Pesticides - The report suggests a potential recovery in the pesticide sector, particularly for glyphosate and its derivatives, as the industry undergoes restructuring to improve profitability [4][8]. - Companies such as Yangnong Chemical and Lier Chemical are highlighted as key players in the pesticide market, with recommendations for investment [7][8].

中新社巴黎1月4日电 (记者 李洋)法国官方4日表示，将加强对进口农产品的检查，以回应法国农民的关 切。 法国总理勒科尔尼当天表示，含有欧盟禁用的代森锰锌、草铵膦、甲基硫菌灵、多菌灵等除草剂或农药 残留的进口农产品将被暂停进入法国市场。 勒科尔尼表示，将派出专业队伍就此展开更严格的检查，以确保相关农产品符合法国的卫生标准。他形 容这是保护法国的供应链和消费者、"打击不公平竞争"的第一步，也关系到对法国农民的公平性问题。 法国农业部长热纳瓦尔称，苹果、草莓、葡萄等农产品只有在没有上述物质残留的情况下，才会在法国 销售；来自南美的多种水果在符合法国标准的情况下才会被允许进入法国市场。 法国农民仍在抗议南方共同市场-欧盟自由贸易协定，认为该协定将导致来自南美国家的农产品冲击法 国农业。此外，法国农业部近期采取的遏制牲畜疾病的有关措施也引发部分农民不满。 勒科尔尼将于下周会见法国农业工会组织代表，南方共同市场-欧盟自由贸易协定及遏制牲畜疾病被认 为将是主要讨论议题。(完) 勒科尔尼4日晚通过社交媒体发表致法国农民的公开信，重申将采取坚定而有力的措施，暂停进口来自 南美国家的不符合标准的食品。他还表示将采取必要措施帮助 ...

利尔化学股份有限公司投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-08 | 投 资 | 者 关 | 系 | 活 | 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 动类别 | | | | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | | | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | | | | □现场参观 □其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） | | 参 与 | 单 位 | 名 | 称 | 华创证券：申起昊 | | 及人员姓名 | | | | | | 时间 | | | | 年 月 日 2025 12 24 | | 地点 | | | | 公司会议室 | | 上 市 | 公 司 | 接 | 待 | 副总经理/董事会秘书：刘军 | | 人员姓名 | | | | 董事会办公室主任/证券事务代表：靳永恒 | | | | | | 1、对目前行业的看法？ | | | | | | 答：目前农药行业总体依旧竞争激烈，主要大宗农药产品 | | | | | | 价格仍在底部盘整，但全球农药市场库存逐步回归正常水平， | | | | | | 部分产品的市场需求回暖、价格也出现止跌回升的迹象，给行 | ...

草铵膦等重要重点农药原药观察 20151223 摘要 草铵膦市场份额提升受益于工艺优化及精草迭代，2025 年下半年行业 开工率超 90%，库存降至低位，需求同比增长超 50%，供需关系趋于 平衡。 草铵膦替代草甘膦和百草枯的核心驱动力包括：草甘膦的致癌诉讼和抗 性问题，百草枯的高毒性退出，以及草铵膦成本优势的逐步显现和农药 减量化政策的推动。 一品一证政策旨在规范市场，利好具备强大渠道能力的大公司，中小企 业竞争或将处于劣势，预计大公司市场份额增加，行业规范程度提高。 敌草快原药价格低于草铵膦和精草，但亩用成本相差不大。随着精草制 剂价格下降，其亩用成本已接近甚至低于草甘膦，替代性增强。 国内外转基因作物对抗性除草剂（如抗草铵膦）的需求增长，国内已有 多家企业获得转基因作物登记证，海外市场也在积极进行相关产品进口 登记。 草铵膦行业面临成本倒挂和环保法规趋严的挑战，高丝氨酸路线可能成 为降低成本的重要途径，小规模、高成本路线或将被淘汰。 中国除草剂产品（如精草）凭借成本优势在海外市场逐渐受到认可，大 型公司积极进行海外登记布局，市场份额有望扩大。 Q&A 今年（2025 年）下半年行业开工率高达 92%，主 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the pesticide industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [2][39]. Core Insights - The demand for glufosinate-ammonium is expected to continue growing due to improved cost-effectiveness and accelerated registration processes overseas [2]. - The glufosinate-ammonium industry has seen significant improvements in operational rates and inventory levels, with production increasing by 27.85% year-on-year from January to November 2025 [5][6]. - The report highlights the increasing global acceptance of glufosinate-ammonium, particularly in key agricultural markets such as the US, Canada, and Brazil, where registration certificates have expanded rapidly [13][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Significant Improvement in Cost-Effectiveness of Glufosinate-Ammonium - The unit efficacy of glufosinate-ammonium is approximately 3.5 times that of glyphosate, with refined glufosinate-ammonium reaching about 6.3 times, making it more cost-effective despite higher nominal prices [8][11]. 2. Rapid Expansion of Overseas Registration Certificates for Glufosinate-Ammonium - The US saw a surge in registration certificates from 13 in 2019 to 90 in 2020, maintaining a high level in subsequent years, while Brazil and Canada have also shown significant growth in registrations [13][16]. 3. Biodiesel Demand Enhancing Economic Viability of Canola Cultivation - Canola-related applications account for approximately 39% of glufosinate-ammonium's downstream demand, driven by the increasing economic viability of canola cultivation in the context of biodiesel production [22][23]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on glufosinate-ammonium and refined glufosinate-ammonium industries, particularly companies like Lier Chemical and Hebei Chengxin, which are expected to seize opportunities in the accelerating industry growth [29].

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月12日 创制农药行业专题 优于大市 中国创制农药有望迎来"Me too "到"Me better 农药：非专利药市场占比高，专利药盈利水平高。2024 年全球农药市场规模 约 772 亿美元，十年复合增速 2.35%。据印度作物联合会（CCFI）数据，2022 年非专利农药在全球农药市场的份额已达到历史新高 93%，而专利农药的占 比仅为 7%。目前国内农药企业主要是为国外跨国制剂企业配套生产农药原 药，行业盈利受全球农化库存周期影响大，且多数非专利农药原药面临产能 过剩问题，农药企业盈利水平低下，抗风险能力较差。与四大跨国农化巨头 相比，国内农药企业的毛利率偏低，商业模式有待升级。 核心观点 行业研究·行业专题 基础化工·农化制品 新农药创制：难度持续提升。进入 21 世纪以来全球每十年引入的新农药活 性成分数量显著下降，目前成功上市 1 个新农药品种平均需要筛选约 16 万 个化合物，耗资约 3 亿美元，耗时约 12 年，反映出新农药创制难度提升， 研发周期拉长。新农药发展方向：高效、低毒、低成本。 中国农药行业实力全球领先，已具备新农药创制基础。中国已成为全球最大 的农 ...

证券日报网12月11日讯利尔化学（002258）在12月10日回答调研者提问时表示，随着草铵膦价格较长时 期在低位徘徊，产品性价比大幅提升，市场需求量持续增长，公司坚定看好草铵膦和精草铵膦的未来发 展，公司将持续提升现有优势，稳步扩大市场份额。 ...

经济观察网利尔化学（002258）在接受机构调研中表示，目前农药行业总体依旧竞争激烈，主要大宗农 药产品价格仍在底部盘整，但全球农药市场库存逐步回归正常水平，部分产品的市场需求回暖、价格也 出现止跌回升的迹象，给行业发展带来了一定积极影响。草铵膦方面，随着草铵膦价格较长时期在低位 徘徊，产品性价比大幅提升，市场需求量持续增长，公司坚定看好草铵膦和精草铵膦的未来发展，公司 将持续提升现有优势，稳步扩大市场份额。 ...

人民财讯12月11日电，利尔化学（002258）在机构调研中表示，目前农药行业总体依旧竞争激烈，主要 大宗农药产品价格仍在底部盘整，但全球农药市场库存逐步回归正常水平，部分产品的市场需求回暖、 价格也出现止跌回升的迹象，给行业发展带来了一定积极影响。草铵膦方面，随着草铵膦价格较长时期 在低位徘徊，产品性价比大幅提升，市场需求量持续增长，公司坚定看好草铵膦和精草铵膦的未来发 展，公司将持续提升现有优势，稳步扩大市场份额。 ...