证券日报网讯新和成11月24日发布公告，在公司回答调研者提问时表示，公司布局草铵膦项目主要考虑 产业链的协同性，公司积极关注并培育植保，希望以此产品为契机进入植保行业。目前在进行草铵膦立 项准备工作，精草铵膦项目目前已获环评审批，大生产投建计划需结合公司战略及市场情况确定。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

证券研究报告 | 策略报告 2025 年 11 月 24 日 12 月行业配置关注：产能出清与景气改善的线索 ——行业比较与配置系列（2025 年 12 月） 过去一个月市场在美联储降息预期降温、AI 泡沫担忧、涨价行情持续演绎等多重 因素影响下震荡下行，周期板块及防御行业表现较好，TMT、机械等行业跌幅居 前。展望 12 月份，行业配置重点关注"库存低位企稳+产能结构优化+景气持续 改善"的领域。结合中观景气、盈利能力、筹码分布、估值、交易、周期阶段和 赛道价值等多个维度，本期推荐关注非银、电力设备（电池、逆变器、风电设备）、 国防军工、煤炭、基础化工、钢铁等。 【本期关注】产能出清与景气改善的线索 风险提示：产业扶持度不及预期，宏观经济波动。 定期报告 相关报告 《11 月行业配置关注：三季报 业绩与"十五五"规划指引》 《10 月行业配置关注：高景气 持续与困境反转的线索》 《9 月行业配置关注：美联储降 息与 PPI 止跌的交易线索》 《8 月行业配置关注：反内卷与 中报业绩改善的线索》 《7 月行业配置关注：哪些领域 中报业绩有望高增或边际改善》 《A 股盈利有望止跌回升，配置 聚焦三条线索——A ...

Group 1 - The company Jiuyuan Group plans to transfer 20% of its shares through a public solicitation of transferees, while its associated party Sichuan Huacai Technology Co., Ltd. will transfer an additional 3.5%, totaling 23.5% of shares [1] - Jiuyuan Group is currently the controlling shareholder with a 23.78% stake, and this transfer may lead to a change in the company's control and governance structure [1] - The introduction of a new controlling shareholder with advantages in the industry chain, channels, technology, or capital could enhance the company's governance and resource synergy, improving its competitiveness in the global agrochemical market [1] Group 2 - The price of glyphosate is expected to stabilize and recover due to the overcapacity in supply leading to a continuous decline in prices over recent years, with the average market price at 44,500 yuan/ton, down 11% year-on-year and 5.32% since the beginning of the year [2] - The agricultural industry's "anti-involution" actions are expected to alleviate disorderly competition, which may lead to a recovery in glyphosate prices [2] - The company is a major domestic producer of glyphosate and is expected to benefit from the anticipated increase in demand for glyphosate and refined glyphosate [2] - Projected net profits for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 506 million, 656 million, and 804 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +135.17%, +29.63%, and +22.52%, corresponding to PE ratios of 21, 16, and 13 times [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Insights - The company achieved significant year-on-year growth in performance, with revenue of 3.6 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, up 7.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 390 million yuan, up 661.7% year-on-year [4][12] - The growth is attributed to increased sales and prices of key products, improved gross margins, and increased investment income from affiliated companies [13] - The company is strategically positioning itself in AI and synthetic biology, with plans for the first fluorinated insecticide to be mass-produced in 2025 and collaborations to enhance pesticide development efficiency [14][15] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 3.6 billion yuan, a net profit of 390 million yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 380 million yuan, showing substantial increases of 7.6%, 661.7%, and 1014.9% respectively [4][12] - In Q3 2025, revenue was 1.15 billion yuan, up 9.7% year-on-year but down 7.6% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 120 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 522.3% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 24.6% [12][13] - The company expects revenue growth of 21%, 9%, and 8% for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profit growth of 528%, 12%, and 12% for the same years [15][16] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on synthetic biology and AI applications to enhance its product development capabilities, which is expected to open new growth avenues [14][15] - The strategic partnership with Green Xin Nuo Bio aims to develop peptide-based biopesticides, indicating a move towards industrialization of synthetic biology strategies [14] - The company has also adjusted prices for key products in response to raw material cost increases and market demand, indicating proactive market strategies [13]

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic environment shows a recovery in upstream sectors, while midstream sectors exhibit a mixed recovery, with the coal industry maintaining stability and the petrochemical sector continuing to face challenges [9] - The manufacturing sector, particularly in the new energy chain, is showing improvement, with demand for machinery and automotive sectors gradually recovering [9] - Consumer sectors are experiencing a divergence, with home appliances and food and beverage sectors showing positive trends, while the pharmaceutical sector faces increasing price pressures [9] Industry and Company Analysis Textile and Apparel Industry - Adidas reported a 12% increase in revenue for Q3 2025, with management raising the full-year guidance due to strong brand momentum and better-than-expected performance [10][11] - The company achieved a net profit of €485 million in Q3, with all regions and channels showing double-digit growth, except for North America, which was impacted by a decline in accessory sales [10][11] - The management has adjusted the full-year revenue growth expectation to approximately 9%, with an operating profit target raised to about €2 billion [10][11] Agricultural Chemicals Industry - The potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a tight supply-demand balance, with domestic production expected to decrease by 2.7% in 2024, while imports are projected to increase by 9.1% [12][13] - The average price of potassium chloride in October was reported at ¥3228 per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.3% [12] - The demand for lithium iron phosphate is rising, with production capacity reaching 5.92 million tons per year, and prices increasing by 7% in October [13] Livestock and Agriculture - The investment strategy for November 2025 recommends focusing on Hong Kong-listed dairy farming stocks, with expectations for beef prices to accelerate [17] - The report highlights a potential turning point in the domestic beef cycle, with optimism for both domestic and international markets [17] - The prices of live pigs and poultry are showing upward trends, with live pig prices increasing by 6% month-on-month [18] Medical Devices - Mindray Medical's international business is growing steadily, with Q3 revenue expected to accelerate compared to Q2 [26] - The company reported a revenue of ¥258.34 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit of ¥75.70 billion, despite facing price pressures in the domestic market [26][27] - The company is focusing on enhancing its global supply chain and local production capabilities, with international revenue accounting for over 50% of total revenue [26] Pharmaceutical Industry - The report on Baicheng Pharmaceutical indicates a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, attributed to intensified competition in the generic drug market [28][29] - The company is transitioning towards innovative drug development, with over 15 projects in the pipeline, focusing on neurology, autoimmune diseases, and oncology [29] - The production capacity utilization is expected to improve as the company secures contracts for multiple drug varieties [29] Orthopedic Devices - Weigao Orthopedics reported a 10% increase in revenue for Q3 2025, driven by sales model integration and refined management practices [31] - The company is focusing on optimizing its sales structure and enhancing clinical service levels, which has led to increased revenue and volume across multiple product lines [31][32] - The net profit margin has improved significantly, reflecting effective cost control and operational efficiency [32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [6][9]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer supply and demand are tightly balanced, with international prices remaining high. China's potassium chloride production is expected to decrease slightly in 2024, while imports are projected to reach a historical high [1][27]. - The long-term price center for phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs in China, alongside growing demand from downstream sectors like lithium iron phosphate [2][5]. - The demand for lithium iron phosphate continues to rise, with production and prices increasing significantly in recent months, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [3][51]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - China's potassium chloride production is forecasted at 5.5 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 2.7% year-on-year, while imports are expected to reach 12.633 million tons, a 9.1% increase [1][27]. - The average market price for potassium chloride in October was 3,228 RMB/ton, showing a year-on-year increase of 28.3% [1][45]. - The report recommends focusing on potassium fertilizer companies, particularly "Yaji International," which is expected to produce 2.8 million tons and 4 million tons of potassium chloride in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4][50]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock market is characterized by tight supply and high prices, with 30% grade phosphate rock prices remaining above 900 RMB/ton for over three years [2][52]. - As of October 31, 2025, the price for 30% grade phosphate rock in Hubei was 1,040 RMB/ton, while in Yunnan it was 970 RMB/ton, both stable compared to the previous month [2][52]. - The report highlights companies with rich phosphate reserves, recommending "Yuntianhua" and "Xingfa Group," while suggesting attention to "Hubei Yihua" and "Yuntu Holdings" for their potential in increasing self-sufficiency in phosphate rock [5]. Pesticides - The report anticipates an increase in exports of glyphosate and glufosinate to the Northern Hemisphere during the seasonal peak from November to January [4][8]. - The price of glyphosate in the East China market rose to 27,300 RMB/ton, a 17.67% increase since April [4][8]. - The report recommends "Yangnong Chemical" for its long-term growth potential, along with other companies like "Lier Chemical" and "Xingfa Group" for their strong market positions [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [6][9]. Core Views - The potassium fertilizer supply and demand are tightly balanced, with international prices remaining high. China, being the largest consumer, has a dependency on imports exceeding 60% [1][25]. - The long-term price center for phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs in China, alongside growing demand from downstream sectors like lithium iron phosphate [2][5]. - The demand for lithium iron phosphate continues to rise, with production and prices increasing significantly, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [3][51]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - China's potassium chloride production is projected to decrease by 2.7% to 5.5 million tons in 2024, while imports are expected to reach a record high of 12.633 million tons, up 9.1% year-on-year [1][25]. - As of October 2025, the average market price for potassium chloride is 3,228 CNY/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.3% [1][45]. - The report recommends focusing on potassium fertilizer companies, particularly "Yaka International," which is expected to produce 2.8 million tons and 4 million tons of potassium chloride in 2025 and 2026, respectively [4][50]. Phosphate Chemicals - The phosphate rock supply-demand balance is tight, with the market price for 30% grade phosphate rock remaining high at 1,040 CNY/ton in Hubei and 970 CNY/ton in Yunnan [2][52]. - The report highlights the increasing demand for phosphate in new applications, particularly in the lithium battery sector, which is driving up prices for related products [3][51]. - Key companies recommended in the phosphate sector include "Yuntianhua" and "Xingfa Group," which have rich phosphate reserves [5][9]. Pesticides - The report anticipates an increase in exports of glyphosate and glufosinate to the Northern Hemisphere during the seasonal peak from November to January, with prices rebounding from historical lows [4][8]. - The domestic glyphosate industry is operating at a high capacity of 92.42%, with inventory levels at a two-year low, supporting price increases [4][8]. - Recommended companies in the pesticide sector include "Yangnong Chemical" and "Lier Chemical," which are well-positioned to benefit from the expected demand surge [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Xinhecheng (002001), is progressing well with its projects, including the production of methionine and vitamin products, while showing positive market activity with significant net inflows of capital on October 31. Group 1: Company Projects - The methionine project in Shandong is currently in the pilot testing phase and is progressing smoothly [2] - The 70,000-ton methionine expansion project has received environmental assessment approval and is also progressing well [2] - The company’s 8,000-ton vitamin A and 60,000-ton vitamin E products are chemically synthesized, with ongoing plans for expansion in the PPS production capacity [2] Group 2: Market Activity - On October 31, the main capital saw a net inflow of 90.38 million yuan, indicating a clear accumulation trend [3] - Retail investors experienced a net outflow of 46.84 million yuan, while speculative funds saw a net outflow of 43.54 million yuan [3]

Group 1 - The company is actively focusing on and nurturing the plant protection industry, considering the synergy of the industrial chain [2] - The main products currently being developed are glyphosate and refined glyphosate, with plans determined by approval and market conditions [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% within the next six months [8][13]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.709 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.31%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 381 million yuan, up 189.07% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.202 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.48%, despite a quarter-on-quarter decline of 9.03%. The net profit for the same period was 111 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 183.98% [1]. - The company has shown resilience in profitability during the traditional off-season for the agricultural pesticide industry, with core products experiencing price declines but still managing to improve profit margins [1][2]. - The company is the largest producer of chlorinated pyridine herbicides and has ongoing projects that are expected to enhance its profitability in the future [2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 7.921 billion yuan, 9.173 billion yuan, and 10.426 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 510 million yuan in 2025, 683 million yuan in 2026, and 924 million yuan in 2027, indicating significant growth [2]. - The report highlights an improvement in gross margin, which increased by 3.23 percentage points year-on-year and 1.15 percentage points quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025 [1]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company has a high market share in chlorinated pyridine herbicides, and the industry landscape is favorable for growth [2]. - The report notes that the current phase of destocking in overseas markets is nearing completion, which could positively impact pricing and profitability for the company [1][2]. - The company is actively working on several construction projects that are expected to elevate its production capacity and profitability in the coming years [2].