证券研究报告 | 2025年10月10日 利民股份（002734.SZ） 优于大市 多个主营产品量价齐升，代森锰锌在巴西获原药及制剂登记 公司发布 2025 年前三季度业绩预告，业绩实现同比大幅增长。预计 2025 年 前三季度实现归母净利润3.84 亿元-3.94 亿元，同比增长649.71%-669.25%； 其中第三季度预计实现归母净利润 1.15 亿元-1.25 亿元，同比增长 490.85%-542.23%，环比下降 22.36%-28.57%。公司业绩大幅增长的主要原因 是公司主要产品销量和价格同比上涨、毛利率提升以及参股公司业绩上涨带 来投资收益增加。 核心产品景气度持续向好，盈利能力增强。据百川盈孚，2024 年 3 月中旬至 今，甲维盐和阿维菌素市场价格分别从 50、35 万元/吨上涨至 65、45.5 万 元/吨；2025 年 3 月以来，代森锰锌的市场价格从 2.35 万元/吨上涨至 2.75 万元/吨；百菌清市场价格已从 2024 年 1 月的 1.8 万元/吨上涨至 2025 年 10 月的 2.95 万元/吨；2025 年 7 月 4 日国内酒石酸泰乐菌素市场主流成交参考 价 29 ...

随着2025年三季度业绩预告逐渐进入密集披露期，A股市场将迎来新一轮"业绩验证潮"。 在全球景气度持续提升的背景下，部分A股半导体企业的前三季度业绩亮眼。 Wind数据显示，截至记者发稿，已有超过40家上市公司发布三季度业绩预告。从业绩预告类型来看， 今年前三季度业绩预喜（预增、略增、扭亏）公司数量占比在七成以上，显示出强劲的业绩增长势头。 其中，广东明珠、英联股份等公司更是以超10倍的业绩增幅，成为市场关注的焦点。 最高业绩增幅超16倍 从目前已经发布的业绩预告来看，广东明珠、英联股份等公司前三季度业绩增幅居前。 英联股份9月29日晚发布2025年前三季度业绩预告，预计公司前三季度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利 润3450万—3750万元，同比增长1531.13%—1672.97%。 公司表示，报告期内，公司营业收入和利润均实现了增长，主要来自于快消品金属包装易开盖板块的贡 献。报告期内，公司金属包装板块智能化、自动化产线的快速响应供货能力和生产产品质量的稳定性等 核心优势进一步显现，国内外市场占有率提升，公司营业收入实现稳步增长。同时，公司通过产品结构 调整等精益化管理方式提升了经营管理效率，实现降本增效， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recently released "Petrochemical Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" aims to address the challenges of overcapacity in refining and insufficient supply in high-end materials, targeting an average annual growth of over 5% in the industry's added value during this period [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The petrochemical industry is currently facing intensified competition in the basic organic raw materials market, slowing domestic demand growth, and increasing external uncertainties [4]. - In 2024, domestic refined oil demand is expected to peak and decline, leading to overcapacity in refining, with national refining capacity reaching 955 million tons per year [4]. - The government aims to control crude oil processing capacity within 1 billion tons by 2025 as part of the "14th Five-Year" modern energy system planning [4]. Group 2: Policy Measures - The plan emphasizes strict control over new refining capacity and the scientific regulation of new capacity for ethylene and paraxylene, while supporting the renovation of outdated petrochemical facilities and the demonstration of new technologies [4][5]. - By the end of 2025, the plan aims to complete the relocation and transformation of hazardous chemical production enterprises in densely populated urban areas [4]. Group 3: High-End Supply Enhancement - The plan identifies key areas such as electronic chemicals, high-end polyolefins, and specialty rubbers to enhance supply capabilities and promote domestic production of critical materials [6]. - The demand for new materials in emerging industries like new energy, low-altitude economy, and humanoid robots is expected to create new growth opportunities for the industry [7]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policy aims to prevent vicious competition within the industry, with recent actions indicating a shift towards optimizing the supply-demand structure [9]. - For instance, a recent announcement from Xinxiang Chemical Fiber to suspend production of 31,200 tons of viscose filament yarn for 90 days will impact approximately 13% of the industry supply [9]. Group 5: Investment Outlook - The release of the plan has renewed market expectations for the petrochemical sector, with analysts noting that the industry is likely to transition from a focus on scale expansion to optimizing existing capacity and pursuing high-quality growth [11]. - Future investment opportunities are anticipated in both price recovery cycles and the development of high-end new materials [11].

国信证券近日发布2025年石化化工行业10月投资策略：《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案 (2025-2026年)》的出台，旨在引导这一国民经济支柱产业在保持合理增速的同时，实现高质 量发展，其核心可概括为"稳增长、调结构、促创新"。方案明确要求2025-2026年，行业增 加值年均增长5%以上，并追求经济效益回升、创新能力增强等质的提升。 以下为研究报告摘要： 核心观点 石化化工行业2025年10月投资观点： 《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案(2025-2026年)》的出台，旨在引导这一国民经济支柱产 业在保持合理增速的同时，实现高质量发展，其核心可概括为"稳增长、调结构、促创新"。 方案明确要求2025-2026年，行业增加值年均增长5%以上，并追求经济效益回升、创新能力 增强等质的提升。 该方案有望推动落后产能淘汰、引领行业健康发展。化工行业老旧产能的淘汰工作具体 实施后有望引领行业供给侧逐渐优化，同时推动我国化工行业设备更新、增强化工装置整体 竞争力。方案指出加强重大石化、现代煤化工项目规划布局引导，严控新增炼油产能，合理 确定乙烯、对二甲苯新增产能规模和投放节奏，防范煤制甲醇行业产能过剩风险。这意味着 未来炼 ...

Core Insights - The introduction of the "Stabilizing Growth Work Plan for the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" aims to guide this pillar industry of the national economy to maintain reasonable growth while achieving high-quality development, focusing on "stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and promoting innovation" [1][17][18] - The plan sets a target for an average annual growth of over 5% in industry value added from 2025 to 2026, while also pursuing improvements in economic efficiency and innovation capabilities [1][17] Industry Analysis Petrochemical Industry - The plan is expected to promote the elimination of outdated production capacity and lead to healthier industry development, optimizing the supply side of the chemical industry [2][18] - The plan emphasizes the need to strengthen the planning and layout of major petrochemical and modern coal chemical projects, strictly control new refining capacity, and reasonably determine the scale and pace of new ethylene and paraxylene capacity [2][18] Fertilizer Industry - The plan aims to strengthen raw material supply security and stabilize production foundations for the fertilizer industry, requiring long-term agreements with suppliers of coal, phosphate rock, and natural gas [19] - The plan also encourages the optimization of product structure and the development of new fertilizers [19] Chemical Products Pricing - As of September 28, 2025, the China Chemical Product Price Index (CCPI) was reported at 3969 points, down 8.4% from January 2, 2025 [20] - The manufacturing PMI slightly rose to 49.4%, indicating limited improvement in the economic environment, with the production index at 50.8% [20] Investment Recommendations Potash Fertilizer - The global potash fertilizer industry is characterized by oligopoly, with a tight supply-demand balance, and prices are expected to remain high [21] - The company "Yaqi International" is highlighted for its significant potash resources and ongoing capacity expansion, with a projected production capacity of 5 million tons by 2025 [21] Pesticides - The pesticide industry is expected to see a recovery in prices due to increased demand from South America and limited export growth from India and the US [22] - "Lier Chemical" is recommended as a leading company in the chlorinated pyridine herbicide and glyphosate sectors [22] Fluorochemicals - The fluorochemical sector is anticipated to benefit from the implementation of quota systems for refrigerants starting in 2024, with a focus on the long-term price increase of refrigerants [23] - Companies such as "Juhua Co., Ltd." and "Dongyue Group" are recommended for their strong market positions in refrigerants and fluorinated liquids [23] Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) - The European Union's mandatory addition of 2% SAF in 2025 is expected to drive up prices for bio-jet fuel products, with "Zhuoyue New Energy" recommended for its competitive advantages in production capacity [24][9]

上 市 公 司 基础化工 2025 年 09 月 30 日 利尔化学 (002258) ——草铵膦和氯代吡啶类除草剂领先企业，工艺技术构筑 核心护城河 报告原因：首次覆盖 增持（首次评级） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 09 月 29 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 12.77 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 13.33/7.72 | | 市净率 | 1.3 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 3.13 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 10,205 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,862.53/13,479.43 | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 9.80 | | 资产负债率% | 43.87 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 800/799 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 09-30 10-31 11-30 12-31 01-31 02-28 03-31 04-30 05-31 06- ...

Company Overview - Jieya Co., Ltd. is a high-quality wet wipe manufacturer established in 1999, with major clients including Woolworths, Kimberly-Clark, Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Babycare, and Dongfang Zhenxuan [2][13] - The company experienced a decline in performance in 2024 due to a drop in wet wipe orders post-pandemic, with projected revenue and net profit of 54.7 million and 1.9 million respectively, resulting in a net profit margin of 3.5% [2][13] - In the first half of 2025, the company showed signs of recovery with revenue of 310 million, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, and a net profit of 33 million, up 22.6%, leading to a net profit margin recovery to 10.5% [2][13] Industry Analysis - The global wet wipe market is steadily growing, with a retail market size projected to reach 18.4 billion USD in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.7% [3][13] - In 2024, the top 10 companies in the global wet wipe market hold a combined market share of 41.3%, with Procter & Gamble and Kimberly-Clark being the largest players, holding 13.9% and 11.3% market shares respectively [3][13] - The Chinese wet wipe market is expected to exceed 12.9 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, and the top 10 brands holding a market share of 48.0% [3][13] Company Performance and Strategy - Jieya Co., Ltd. has a significant net profit margin advantage over competitors, with a net profit margin of 10.5% in the first half of 2025 compared to 4.08% for Hangzhou Guoguang, which reported revenue of 458 million and a net profit of 19 million [4][13] - The company has established strong relationships with international brand clients, with the top five clients accounting for 77.6% of revenue, and foreign sales increasing by 46.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [4][13] - Jieya is expanding its production capacity with a new factory in the United States, which is expected to produce 15 billion wet wipes annually, further enhancing its global market presence [4][13] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 77 million, 107 million, and 144 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 297.2%, 38.1%, and 34.7% [13] - The current market capitalization is estimated at 3.5 billion, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 45, 33, and 24 for the years 2025 to 2027 [13]

Company Overview - Jieya Co., Ltd. is a high-quality wet wipes manufacturer established in 1999, with major clients including Woolworths, Kimberly-Clark, Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, Babycare, and Dongfang Zhenxuan [2][13] - The company experienced a decline in performance in 2024 due to a drop in wet wipes orders post-pandemic, with projected revenue and net profit of 547 million and 19 million CNY respectively, resulting in a net profit margin of 3.50% [2][13] - In the first half of 2025, the company showed signs of recovery with revenue of 310 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 8.8%, and a net profit of 33 million CNY, up 22.6%, leading to a net profit margin recovery to 10.50% [2][13] Industry Analysis - The global wet wipes market is steadily expanding, with a retail market size projected to reach 18.4 billion USD in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.7% [3][13] - In China, the wet wipes market is expected to exceed 12.9 billion CNY in 2024, growing by 4.3% year-on-year, with the top 10 brands holding a market share of 48.0% [3][13] Competitive Position - Jieya Co., Ltd. has a significant net profit margin advantage over competitors, with a 10.50% margin compared to Hangzhou Guoguang's 4.08% [4][13] - The company’s top five clients accounted for 77.6% of its revenue in 2024, with international brand clients driving a 46.2% increase in foreign revenue in the first half of 2025, raising the foreign revenue share to 60.3% [4][13] - The establishment of a production facility in the United States is expected to enhance the company's global competitiveness, with a projected capacity of 15 billion wet wipes annually [4][13] Financial Projections - Forecasts for Jieya Co., Ltd. indicate net profits of 77 million, 107 million, and 144 million CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 297.2%, 38.1%, and 34.7% [13] - The current market capitalization is estimated at 3.5 billion CNY, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 45, 33, and 24 for the years 2025 to 2027 [13]

推荐及受益标的 推荐标的：【化工龙头白马】万华化学、华鲁恒升、恒力石化、荣盛石化、赛轮轮胎、 扬农化工、新和成、龙佰集团、盐湖股份等；【氟化工】金石资源、巨化股份、三美股份、 昊华科技等；【铬盐】振华股份；【化纤行业】新凤鸣、桐昆股份、华峰化学等；【农化& 磷化工】兴发集团、利民股份、云图控股、亚钾国际、和邦生物等；【硅】合盛硅业、硅宝 科技；【纯碱&氯碱】博源化工、三友化工等；【其他】黑猫股份、苏博特、江苏索普等。 【新材料】OLED：瑞联新材、莱特光电、奥来德、万润股份、濮阳惠成；胶膜：洁美科 技、东材科技、长阳科技；其他：阿科力、松井股份、利安隆、安利股份等。受益标的： 开源证券近日发布基础化工行业周报：《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025－2026 年）》印发【石化化工】工业和信息化部、生态环境部、应急管理部、中国人民银行、市场 监管总局、金融监管总局、供销合作总社等7部门联合发布《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案 （2025－2026年）》（以下简称《工作方案》）。 以下为研究报告摘要： 本周行业观点：草铵膦、锦纶行业反内卷有序推进，有望助力行业景气上行（1）草铵 膦：9月23日，中国农药工业协会公众号 ...

投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究报告 《UCO-SAF 供需持续偏紧，欧盟对美 SAF 征收反侵销税或凸显中国 SAF 竞 争力—行业点评报告》-2025.9.25 《本周电石价格上涨，国内生物酶解 法 rPET 产业化进程提速—化工行业 周报》-2025.9.21 《2025 年 8 月 PPI 环比持平，环氧氯 丙烷供给偏紧，价格上行—化工行业 周报》-2025.9.14 《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025-2026 年）》印 发，草铵膦、锦纶行业反内卷有序推进 ——行业周报 基础化工 基础化工 2025 年 09 月 28 日 | 金益腾（分析师） | 徐正凤（分析师） | | --- | --- | | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | xuzhengfeng@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520020002 | 证书编号：S0790524070005 | 本周行业观点：草铵膦、锦纶行业反内卷有序推进，有望助力行业景气上行 （1 ...