Core Viewpoint - Lier Chemical is expected to significantly increase its profitability in the first half of 2025, with a projected net profit of 265 million to 275 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 185.24% to 196.00% due to rising prices and sales of its core product, glyphosate, alongside cost optimization efforts [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2023, Lier Chemical's revenue was 7.851 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.55% year-on-year, and the net profit was 604 million yuan, down 66.68% [2]. - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 7.311 billion yuan, a decline of 6.88% year-on-year, with a net profit of 215 million yuan, a drop of 64.34% [2]. - The company anticipates a strong recovery in 2025, with a significant increase in net profit driven by improved market conditions and strategic initiatives [2][3]. Group 2: Product and Market Dynamics - The price of glyphosate remains low, but the price of Lier Chemical's other core product, glufosinate, has rebounded from 23,500 yuan per ton in April 2025 to 25,500 yuan per ton by July 7, 2025, marking an increase of 8.5% [3]. - The company has expanded its market share in key regions such as Brazil and Argentina through a dual strategy of targeting large clients and overseas registrations [3]. - Domestic demand for glufosinate is rapidly increasing due to the promotion of genetically modified crops, supporting the company's production capacity growth [3]. Group 3: Capacity Expansion and Strategic Initiatives - Lier Chemical has established seven production bases in China, enhancing its competitive edge and ensuring a stable global supply chain [1][4]. - The company holds over 50% market share in glufosinate domestically and approximately 30% globally, benefiting from economies of scale [4]. - As of 2024, Lier Chemical's production capacities include 86,300 tons for active ingredients, 81,200 tons for formulations, and 123,500 tons for chemical products, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 43.4%, 36.2%, and 50.6% [4]. - The company is also pursuing acquisitions to further expand its industry chain, including a proposed acquisition of Shandong Huimeng Biotechnology Co., Ltd. [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural chemical industry [7][10]. Core Views - The agricultural chemical industry is expected to benefit from rising prices of potassium fertilizer and glyphosate, with supply constraints for the insecticide "Kangkuan" [2][5]. - The potassium fertilizer market is characterized by tight supply and demand, with a significant reliance on imports, which is projected to increase due to food security concerns [2][27]. - The phosphoric chemical sector is anticipated to maintain high price levels due to the scarcity of phosphate rock resources and increasing demand from new applications [3][51]. Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer - Global potassium fertilizer prices are expected to recover as demand increases, with China being the largest consumer and heavily reliant on imports [2][27]. - Domestic production of potassium chloride is projected to decrease slightly in 2024, while imports are expected to reach a historical high [27]. - The domestic potassium chloride price is forecasted to rise by approximately 100 yuan/ton in July due to increased port prices [2][45]. Phosphoric Chemicals - The price of phosphate rock is expected to remain high due to declining grades and increasing extraction costs, with a tight supply-demand balance [3][51]. - As of June 30, 2025, the market price for 30% grade phosphate rock in Hubei is 1,040 yuan/ton, while in Yunnan it is 970 yuan/ton, both stable compared to the previous month [3][51]. - The export policy for phosphoric fertilizers emphasizes domestic priority, with reduced export quotas expected to alleviate downward pressure in the domestic market [4]. Pesticides - The supply of "Kangkuan" has been unexpectedly restricted, leading to a potential price increase for the product [5]. - Glyphosate prices have risen by 1,300 yuan/ton in June, driven by increased demand from South America as planting areas for soybeans and corn expand [5][9]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the glyphosate sector, such as "Xingfa Group," which has a significant production capacity [9]. Key Company Recommendations - The report recommends "Yaji International" for potassium fertilizer, projecting production of 2.8 million tons in 2025 and 4 million tons in 2026 [5][49]. - For phosphoric chemicals, "Yuntianhua" and "Xingfa Group" are highlighted as key players due to their rich phosphate reserves [6]. - In the pesticide sector, "Xingfa Group" is recommended for its leading position in glyphosate production [9].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 07 06 年 月 日 基础化工 周观点："反内卷"有望带来细分板块景气修复 石化：伊以停火，油价回落。在伊以冲突加剧时，原本在 60-70 美元/桶区 间徘徊的布伦特原油价格一度冲高，最高时达到 78.85 美元/桶。随着以伊 局势的缓解，油价重回 60-70 美元/桶区间，截止 7 月 4 日，布伦特原油 收于 68.30 美元/桶，与本次冲突爆发前价格相比（6 月 12 日为 69.36 美 元/桶），地缘溢价已基本回吐。 原油重回基本面定价。根据最新预测，IEA、OPEC、EIA 在 6 月报中分别 预计 2025 年全球原油需求增量为 72、130、79 万桶/天，而全球供给增量 分别为 180、90、155 万桶/天，即在 IEA、EIA 的统计口径中，最新的原 油供求敞口分别达到+108、+76 万桶/天。而在基本面偏弱的背景下， OPEC+增产幅度仍屡超预期，继 5 月 41.1 万桶/天的超预期增产后（（比原 计划高出 27.3 万桶/天），5 月 31 日，OPEC 再度宣布将在 7 月实施 41.1 万桶/天的增产计划，增产 ...

Group 1: Company Research - Fengyan Investment recently conducted research on Hongyang, noting that the price increase of core products in Q1 led to performance growth [1] - Major products such as Paraquat, Glyphosate, Chlorantraniliprole, and L-Glufosinate saw price increases, with Chlorantraniliprole's price recovering from 480,000 yuan/ton to 220,000 yuan/ton [1] - The company adheres to strict safety production regulations and environmental standards, with a biomass ethanol project in Yunnan having obtained approval for an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons [1] Group 2: Company Overview - Beijing Fengyan Investment Management Co., Ltd. was established on May 18, 2015, and has registered as a private securities investment fund manager [2] - As of the end of 2020, the company managed over 4 billion yuan across 14 funds, primarily funded by state-owned enterprises and financial institutions [2] - The company focuses on convertible bonds, exchangeable bonds, and other hybrid investment products, aiming to provide stable and high-cost performance investment returns [2] Group 3: Core Competencies - The company has extensive risk identification experience and strong project channel resources, having deepened cooperation with large state-owned enterprises and financial institutions [2] - A convertible bond scoring system has been established to effectively identify investment risks and values, with representative products achieving annualized returns exceeding 20% [2] - The core team has a background in various financial institutions, allowing for the creation of customized products and personalized services to quickly seize market investment opportunities [2]

Group 1: Company Overview and Products - The company primarily produces intermediates with capacities including: Pyridine 75,000 tons/year, 2,2'-Bipyridine 15,000 tons/year, 2,3-Dichloropyridine 9,000 tons/year, Dichloropyridine 5,000 tons/year, Dimethylpyridine 600 tons/year, and Pyrazole acid 2,000 tons/year [4] - Herbicide production includes: Paraquat with a capacity of 32,000 tons/year (actual volume 100,000 tons), and other herbicides with varying capacities [4] - The company is developing a new base in Yunnan with projects including a 50,000 tons/year Pyridine cycle economy project and a 100,000 tons/year biomass ethanol project [4][10] Group 2: Price Trends and Financial Performance - Prices for key products have increased: Paraquat from 10,300 RMB/ton to 12,500 RMB/ton, and other herbicides showing similar upward trends [4][6] - The first quarter performance showed growth due to rising core product prices and reduced financial costs post-restructuring [6] Group 3: Safety and Environmental Practices - The company adheres to strict safety and environmental regulations, implementing a dual prevention mechanism for risk management [9] - No major safety incidents have occurred in recent years, and the company maintains compliance with environmental standards due to its location in an ecologically sensitive area [9] Group 4: Future Projects and Market Position - The Yunnan biomass ethanol project leverages local resources and aims to produce 100,000 tons/year, utilizing a mature process with cost advantages in waste gas utilization [10][11] - The company is positioned to meet the growing demand for green carbon sources, particularly in Southeast Asia, enhancing its market competitiveness [11]

红太阳 20250701 摘要 红太阳公司已建成从木薯到乙醇，再到吡啶碱及化工中间体，最终到绿 色农药的完整生态圈，全面建成可再生资源到全球相关市场 50%以上份 额的绿色农药核心产业链。 2025 年第一季度，公司业绩同比增长约 54%-55%，主要得益于百草 枯等产品价格上涨及绿醇等产品市场需求回升，产能利用率提高。绿醇 目前接单价为 30 万元/吨，但已暂停报价和接单。 2025 年第二季度，百草枯折百产量 3.2 万吨，实物量 10 万吨，价格涨 至 12,500 元/吨，且有提价预期；敌草快二溴盐价格 17,500 元/吨，二 氯盐折本量 2 万吨，实物量 6 万吨，价格 18,500-19,000 元/吨；氯虫 苯甲酰胺产量 2 千吨，价格 30 万元/吨；金草价格 67 千元/吨。 氯虫苯甲酰胺生产受中间体 K 安供应紧张影响，价格上涨。去年国内总 销量约 1.1 万吨，富美实销量约 3,000 吨，有道化工约两三千吨，中山 化工约 800 到 1,000 吨，红太阳公司约七八百吨。 公司计划在云南曲靖新建 6,000 吨氯虫苯甲酰胺项目，包括配套的 K 酸 和 K 安设施，预计明年投产。公司已 ...

点击注册小程序 近期化工园区安全事故多发，看好化工行业龙头长期价值 当前化工行业仍处于景气下行周期，企业或减少对安全的投入，从而导致近期我国化工园区安全事故多发，后 续对于涉及硝化、氯化等高危化工反应的项目审批和生产监管将进一步趋严。而化工行业头部企业凭借更严格 的安全生产管控流程、更优质的生产装置设备、更先进的工艺生产技术，将保障存量高危化工反应装置的有序 生产。化工行业头部企业在涉及高危反应的中间体、产品增量受限的情形下，可以凭借现有产品的稳定生产而 受益。 光引发剂中间体、己内酰胺及己二酸生产企业发生安全事故，建议关注细分子行业龙头 25年6月9日，扬帆新材全资子公司江西扬帆的109车间发生一起火灾事故，江西扬帆拥有3170吨中间体产能， 主要为巯基化合物及衍生品，此着火事件将对茴香硫醚等中间体的供应造成一定影响，进而对光引发剂907的 供应造成影响。后续来看，在当前光引发剂产品低利润的情形下，叠加产品的持续升级迭代，行业集中度将逐 步提升，产品供需格局的优化，利好龙头企业。25年6月8日，中国平煤神马集团尼龙科技有限公司的空分装置 低压氮气球罐下部突然撕裂造成意外事故，该公司是平煤神马集团己二酸、己内 ...

2025 年 6 月 23 日 行业研究 山东暂停高密仁和化工产业园资格，看好化工行业龙头长期价值 ——基础化工行业周报（20250616-20250620） 要点 山东暂停高密仁和化工产业园资格，氯虫苯甲酰胺原药及中间体供应受到影 响。25 年 5 月 27 日，山东省潍坊市高密仁和化工产业园内山东友道化学有 限公司发生重大生产安全事故，目前已暂停高密仁和化工产业园化工园区资 格。6 月 5 日起，除安全隐患整治、环境污染治理、智能升级改造项目以 外，不得办理新建，改建、扩建和技术改造项目相关手续；已办理相关手续 尚未开工的，一律不得开工建设；两年内不得扩区调区。友道化学的工厂爆 炸将影响氯虫苯甲酰胺原药及其中间体的短期供应。目前 K 胺市场供应紧 缺，氯虫苯甲酰胺的成本端支撑偏强，叠加氯虫苯甲酰胺市场货源紧缺，价 格上涨，根据百川盈孚，6 月 20 日，97%氯虫苯甲酰胺的市场价格为 30.5 万元/吨。此外，氯虫苯甲酰胺竞品，例如甲维盐、茚虫威、虱螨脲、虫螨腈 等的价格也有望上涨。建议关注：1）布局有氯虫苯甲酰胺的利尔化学等； 2）布局有 K 胺的联化科技；3）布局有氯虫苯甲酰胺竞品的扬农化工等。 近期 ...

摘要 以伊冲突最新进展，周期如何看？20250622 美国打击伊朗核设施，直接升级伊以冲突，霍尔木兹海峡作为全球石油 运输要道，日均输送 2000 万桶石油，占全球石油液体消耗量的 20%， 若封锁将导致能源通胀和油价飙升至每桶 120-130 美元。 伊以冲突升级后，VLCC 运价从 2.2 万元飙升至 5 万元以上，但中远海 能等股票涨幅有限，表明运价表现超过股价。随着美国介入，VLCC 运 价预计将继续上涨，相关股票配置价值提升。 若霍尔木兹海峡关闭导致油价飙升至 130 美元，将对航空股产生重大影 响，虽燃油附加费可覆盖部分成本，但会抑制需求。航空公司股价更多 受供需关系影响，可采取调整加仓策略。 快递行业价格战趋缓，义乌快递两次涨价，无人车末端应用迅速推进， 单票降本 0.6-0.8 元。顺丰速运件量增长率领先，收入成本剪刀差缩小， 资本开支下降，分红率提升，发展前景较好。 本周化工产品价格指数上涨，受油价推动，但需求淡季限制转嫁能力， 成本压力增大。涤纶 POY 价格上涨但价差收窄，粘胶短纤企稳，库存下 降，预计 8 月中下旬至 9 月旺季将带来化纤板块盈利修复机会。 Q&A 伊以冲突最新进展及其 ...

编号：2025-003 转债简称：113649 转债简称：丰山转债 证券代码：603810 证券简称：丰山集团 江苏丰山集团股份有限公司 | 投资者关系活动类别 | ?特定对象调研 | ?分析师会议 | | --- | --- | --- | | ?媒体采访 | | ?业绩说明会 | | ?新闻发布会 | | ?路演活动 | | ?现场参观 | | ?其他：线上交流 | | 华安证券 | 胡倩倩 | | | 万柏投资 | 许竹媛 | | | 泓德基金 | 赵端端 | | | 万家基金 | 王紫钰 | | | 财通资管 | 刘宏杰 | | | 圆信永丰基金 | | 齐昊麟 | | 招商基金 | 吴艾伦 | | | 参与单位名称及人员姓名 | | | | 京管泰富 | 郎朗 | | | 高腾国际资管 | 吕栋 | | | 瑞奇期货 | 刘期彧 | | | 华龙证券 | 刘可新 | | 董事会秘书 赵青 上市公司接待人员姓名 证券事务代表 梁慧颖 一、公司基本情况介绍 二、沟通交流的主要问题： 答：据公司了解，目前宁夏及内蒙工厂尚未开工，原材料价格目 前仍维持在高位，导致相关产品价格维持在一季度水平。 答：公司产品 ...