磷肥出口窗口期已至，磷肥高景气有望持续。根据中国化肥信息网，磷肥的出口指导具 体情况如下：1、2025年磷肥出口或将分阶段进行，首批集中在5-9月高峰期，第二批视国内 供需动态调整。2、法检时间缩减，预计半月左右时间。3、2025年磷肥出口配额总量比去年 减少。当前磷肥处于春耕后的淡季，出口有望缓解国内产能过剩问题，国际高价出口有望进 一步维持企业盈利水平，建议关注具备磷矿资源配套的大型磷化工企业：云天化。 化工安全事故频发引起重视，农药整体景气度有望抬升。5月27日，友道化学发生爆炸 事故，其生产的氯虫苯甲酰胺（商品名为"康宽"）的中间体合成涉及硝化、重氮化反应。硝 化反应是《首批重点监管的危险化工工艺目录》中18种危险工艺中的其中一种，国家应急管 理部在24年印发的《淘汰落后危险化学品安全生产工艺技术设备目录（第二批）》中已经明 确将间歇或半间歇釜式硝化工艺列为限制类，要求两年内改造为微通道反应器、管式反应器 或连续釜式硝化生产工艺。事故发生后，国务院高度重视并亲自挂牌督办，我们预计农药行 业或将展开全国范围的安全严查，涉及危险工艺的不合规产能或加快清退，助力农药行业景 气度回升。 风险提示：下游需求不及 ...

证券日报网讯中旗股份（300575）8月25日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司氯虫苯甲酰胺的投 产正在有序推进中，预计今年四季度投产并逐步供应市场。目前，公司已同步开展客户订单洽谈工作。 ...

中旗股份（300575.SZ）8月25日在投资者互动平台表示，公司氯虫苯甲酰胺的投产正在有序推进中，预 计今年四季度投产并逐步供应市场。 目前，公司已同步开展客户订单洽谈工作。 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：今年氯虫苯甲酰胺原药价格从22万元/吨飙升至35万元/ 吨，贵司目前有无客户下单？ （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

辽宁优创开启新一轮成长。葫芦岛一期包括年产4500吨杀虫剂、8050吨除草剂和3100吨杀菌剂、7000吨 农药中间体。据公司2024年年报，辽宁优创一期投资预算数34.8亿元，累计投入已达80%，其中，一阶 段已经建成，正在陆续进行调试生产，功夫菊酯、烯草酮等多个品种已拿出合格产品，二阶段正在设备 安装阶段。此外，公司正在加快编制葫芦岛二期项目清单。 自主研发+先正达赋能，打造领先农药创制平台公司自主创制水平领先，形成"农研公司+扬农化工本 部"的创制平台。据2024年年报，在我国年销售额超过亿元的6个自主创制品种中，公司有3个。 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、跟踪下游制剂库存数据、粮食作物价格，判断农药需求复苏，周期 见底回升；2、详细梳理扬农各工厂主要产品供需情况，行业扩张进入尾声，一体化配套的低成本优势 使公司具有超越同行的底部利润。 终端去库叠加粮价企稳，农药需求回暖，原药价格见底2021-2022年行业超额采购，制剂巨头先正达、 安道麦库存金额在2022下半年达到最高点，富美实的库存金额则在2023Q2达到峰值，库存/营业收入的 比例则普遍在2023Q3达到最高点。2024年底，三家农化企业库存 ...

民生证券近日发布化工行业周报：根据中国化肥信息网，磷肥的出口指导具体情况如 下：1、2025年磷肥出口或将分阶段进行，首批集中在5-9月高峰期，第二批视国内供需动态 调整。2、法检时间缩减，预计半月左右时间。3、2025年磷肥出口配额总量比去年减少。当 前磷肥处于春耕后的淡季，出口有望缓解国内产能过剩问题，国际高价出口有望进一步维持 企业盈利水平。 以下为研究报告摘要： 化工周观点： 重点关注半年报业绩好的标的。建议开始寻找二季度景气度好，业绩有望超预期的标 的，建议关注圣泉集团、海利得、卓越新能和瑞联新材。首先是与宏观经济波动相关性较 弱，受益AI资本开支持续提升的新材料行业，圣泉集团是AI服务器中核心电子树脂的主要 国内供应商，随着下游服务器出货量持续放量，公司业绩有望环比提升。其次是海外有工 厂，受益于美国关税冲突的细分行业龙头，建议关注涤纶工业丝的领军企业海利得。并建议 关注公司自身产能增长，随着新项目新产品投产，业绩有望上一个台阶的卓越新能。此外， 瑞联新材已发布2025年半年度业绩预增公告，得益于医药板块收入同比大幅增长、产品结构 优化，预计2025年上半年归母净利润将同比增长69.93%。 磷肥 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pesticide industry is experiencing a bottom rebound in prices after the overseas inventory destocking, indicating a gradual recovery in industry prosperity [1][6]. Industry Overview - As of July 27, the domestic raw material price index for pesticides is 75.35, reflecting a 4.3% increase from the 25-year low, signaling a recovery in the pesticide industry [1][6]. - Export demand remains strong, with the peak season for exports to the U.S. from year-end to April and to South America from June to August [1][6]. - In the first half of 2025, the export volumes of herbicides, insecticides, and fungicides were 122.9 million tons, 260.9 million tons, and 132.5 million tons, respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 13.6%, 31.9%, and 24.4% [1][6]. Policy Developments - The China Pesticide Industry Association launched a three-year action plan called "Zheng Feng Zhi Juan" on July 24, aiming to improve market order and product quality by 2027 [2][4]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs announced the "One Product, One Certificate" policy, which will be implemented on January 1, 2026, to regulate the pesticide market [2][5]. Industry Challenges - The pesticide industry is facing severe internal competition, characterized by overcapacity and price wars among distributors and retailers [3][4]. - The production capacity for certain pesticides far exceeds global demand, leading to unsustainable competition [3]. - The low cost and quick registration process for similar formulations contribute to intensified price competition [3]. Future Outlook - The ongoing "Zheng Feng Zhi Juan" and "One Product, One Certificate" policies are expected to catalyze a recovery in the pesticide industry, potentially leading to a favorable market cycle [6]. - Optimized product structures are anticipated, particularly for glyphosate, glufosinate, chlorantraniliprole, and other key products, driven by regulatory changes and market demand [6]. Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Yangnong Chemical (600486.SH), Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035.SZ), Xin'an Chemical (600596.SH), Jiangshan Co., Ltd. (600389.SH), and others [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the chemical industry, specifically recommending Shengquan Group, Hailide, and Zhuoyue New Energy [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with strong performance in the first half of the year, particularly those expected to exceed earnings forecasts in Q2 2025. It highlights Shengquan Group's role as a major domestic supplier of electronic resins for AI servers, benefiting from increasing server shipments. Hailide is noted for its leadership in the polyester industrial yarn sector, which is expected to benefit from U.S. tariff conflicts. Zhuoyue New Energy is recognized for its capacity growth and new product launches, which are anticipated to elevate its performance [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Overview - The chemical industry index closed at 3727.14 points, down 1.46% from the previous week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.29% [10]. - Key chemical products such as TDI, epoxy chloropropane, lithium hydroxide, formic acid, and phosphoric acid saw significant price increases [21]. Key Sub-Industry Tracking - **Phosphate Fertilizers**: The report indicates a peak export window for phosphate fertilizers, with exports expected to alleviate domestic overcapacity and maintain profitability for large phosphate chemical companies like Yuntianhua [2]. - **Pesticides**: Following a chemical safety incident, the report anticipates a nationwide safety inspection that may lead to the elimination of non-compliant production capacities, potentially boosting the pesticide industry's outlook [3]. - **Polyester Filament**: The report notes a slight increase in polyester filament prices, driven by rising production costs and a modest uptick in demand, although overall market conditions remain weak [24][25]. Company Performance Forecasts - Shengquan Group is projected to have an EPS of 1.03 in 2024, with a PE ratio of 31, while Hailide's EPS is expected to be 0.35 with a PE of 16. Zhuoyue New Energy is forecasted to achieve an EPS of 1.24 with a PE of 35 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The basic chemical sector has underperformed the market recently, with a weekly decline of 1.5% compared to a 0.9% drop in the Shanghai Composite Index [6][12] - The "anti-involution" initiative in the pesticide industry aims to improve market order and product quality by 2027, addressing severe price competition and illegal production [25][27] - The pesticide industry is experiencing significant overcapacity and price wars, leading to a decline in profits despite an increase in export volumes [26][28] - The implementation of the "one product, one certificate" policy is expected to reshape supply in the pesticide sector [27][29] - The pesticide industry is showing signs of recovery, with a rebound in prices and increasing export demand, particularly in the herbicide and insecticide segments [28][29] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The basic chemical industry index has decreased by 1.5% in the past week, ranking 11th among 31 sectors [12] - Year-to-date, the basic chemical industry index has increased by 13.6%, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices [12][18] Key News and Company Announcements - The "anti-involution" campaign was officially launched on July 24, 2025, aiming to enhance compliance and product quality in the pesticide industry [25][27] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has introduced new regulations to improve pesticide management, effective January 1, 2026 [25][27] Product Price and Price Spread Analysis - The chemical product price index has shown a slight increase of 0.8% week-on-week, with 77 products experiencing price rises [37][40] - Significant price increases were noted for ammonium sulfate (+16.1%) and epoxy chloropropane (+10.5%) [40] Investment Recommendations - Core assets in the chemical sector are entering a long-term value zone, with potential for valuation and profit recovery [9][10] - Industries facing supply constraints are expected to see performance elasticity, particularly in vitamins and refrigerants [10][11] - Emphasis on sectors with upward demand certainty, such as civil explosives and modified plastics, is recommended [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural chemicals industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The China Pesticide Industry Association has initiated a three-year "Rectification and Governance" action to address issues such as hidden additives, illegal production, and disorderly competition in the pesticide industry. This initiative aims to improve market order, enhance product quality, and strengthen compliance awareness among enterprises by the end of 2027 [3][4]. - The central government has shown a strong commitment to combating "involution" in the industry, emphasizing the need for self-discipline and the elimination of low-price competition. This includes the introduction of a new growth plan for the petrochemical and chemical industries [6][7]. - The pesticide industry is undergoing a structural optimization due to stricter environmental regulations, with a shift towards green, clean, and low-carbon production. The market is expected to see a rise in the use of high-efficiency, low-risk new chemical pesticides and biological pesticides, while phasing out older, more toxic products [8][9]. Summary by Sections Section 1: "Rectification and Governance" Action - The action prohibits the addition of hidden ingredients or unregistered active ingredients in products and aims to establish a credit information platform for pesticide companies [4][5]. - Companies are required to enhance quality control and resist using low-quality raw materials, while also promoting the improvement of product quality standards [5]. Section 2: Government Initiatives - The central government has frequently addressed the issue of "involution," indicating a strong desire to regulate industry competition and promote the exit of inefficient capacities [6][7]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to introduce a growth plan for key industries, including petrochemicals and chemicals, to optimize supply and eliminate outdated production capacities [7]. Section 3: Industry Trends - The pesticide industry is experiencing a shift towards cleaner production methods, with policies aimed at reducing pesticide usage and promoting sustainable practices [8][9]. - The market concentration in the pesticide production sector is expected to increase, with a focus on green development and the exit of non-compliant small enterprises [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese pesticide industry is launching a three-year "Rectification and Governance" action to address issues such as hidden additives, illegal production, and disorderly competition, aiming for significant improvements by the end of 2027 [1][2]. Summary by Sections Overall Requirements and Goals - The action is guided by Xi Jinping's thoughts and aims to rectify industry chaos through self-discipline, standard improvement, and law enforcement collaboration, promoting high-quality development [2]. Key Tasks - **Prohibition of Hidden Additives**: Companies must comply with regulations regarding raw material procurement and maintain traceable sales records. A "white list" for suppliers is encouraged [3]. - **Detection Standards**: Experts will develop standards for detecting hidden components to support market inspections [4]. - **Integrity Evaluation**: Companies' compliance with regulations will be included in a credit evaluation system, and a credit information platform will be established [5]. - **Combat Illegal Production**: Companies should avoid sourcing from illegal production channels and cooperate with authorities for enforcement actions [6]. - **Reporting Mechanism**: A dedicated email for reporting illegal activities has been established, with rewards for verified reports [6]. - **Quality Control**: Companies must resist using unregistered low-quality raw materials and work on improving quality standards for key products [7]. - **Resisting Price Undercutting**: Companies are urged to avoid selling below cost and to innovate to enhance product quality and market competitiveness [8][9]. - **Industry Competition Norms**: Specific competition norms will be developed for products facing severe internal competition to curb malicious practices [10]. Support Measures - **Organizational Coordination**: A special task force will be established to oversee the action [11]. - **Standard System Improvement**: The association will work on developing relevant standards and promoting them to national and industry standards [11]. - **Social Supervision**: A four-party mechanism involving government, associations, enterprises, and operators will be established for active supervision [12]. - **Public Awareness**: Efforts will be made to educate the public and industry on the importance of compliant pesticide use [13].