农药需求与供给变化

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草甘膦行业点评:南美需求启动,关注双草投资机会
Tebon Securities· 2025-07-18 06:47
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a potential turning point for glyphosate due to demand stimulation and supply disturbances, with inventory levels significantly reduced by 60.76% from the year's peak [5]. - Glyphosate prices have increased to 25,500 CNY per ton, marking a 25.62% rise from the bottom, indicating a strong price recovery trend [5]. - The report suggests that the South American market is expected to drive overall demand for glyphosate, especially during the peak planting season from June to August [5]. - The global glyphosate production capacity is approximately 1.18 million tons per year, with China accounting for 810,000 tons (68.6%) [5]. - The introduction of new standards for glyphosate and glufosinate ammonium is expected to constrain supply, potentially benefiting companies like Limin Chemical and Limin Co. [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report provides a comparative performance analysis of the basic chemical industry against the CSI 300 index, showing fluctuations in market performance [3]. Related Research - Previous reports have focused on supply-side disturbances and investment opportunities in glyphosate [4]. Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes the significant reduction in glyphosate inventory, which is currently at 34,100 tons, down from a high of 86,900 tons earlier in the year [5]. - Exports of glyphosate to Brazil have shown substantial growth, with April and May exports increasing by 43.71% and 137.27% year-on-year, respectively [5]. - The price of glufosinate ammonium has become more competitive compared to glyphosate, with current prices at 43,700 CNY per ton, only 1.7 to 2.2 times that of glyphosate [5].