证券研究报告 | 策略报告 2025 年 11 月 24 日 12 月行业配置关注：产能出清与景气改善的线索 ——行业比较与配置系列（2025 年 12 月） 过去一个月市场在美联储降息预期降温、AI 泡沫担忧、涨价行情持续演绎等多重 因素影响下震荡下行，周期板块及防御行业表现较好，TMT、机械等行业跌幅居 前。展望 12 月份，行业配置重点关注"库存低位企稳+产能结构优化+景气持续 改善"的领域。结合中观景气、盈利能力、筹码分布、估值、交易、周期阶段和 赛道价值等多个维度，本期推荐关注非银、电力设备（电池、逆变器、风电设备）、 国防军工、煤炭、基础化工、钢铁等。 【本期关注】产能出清与景气改善的线索 风险提示：产业扶持度不及预期，宏观经济波动。 定期报告 相关报告 《11 月行业配置关注：三季报 业绩与"十五五"规划指引》 《10 月行业配置关注：高景气 持续与困境反转的线索》 《9 月行业配置关注：美联储降 息与 PPI 止跌的交易线索》 《8 月行业配置关注：反内卷与 中报业绩改善的线索》 《7 月行业配置关注：哪些领域 中报业绩有望高增或边际改善》 《A 股盈利有望止跌回升，配置 聚焦三条线索——A ...

本周观点：欧佩克降价增产，国际油价震荡运行，建议关注进口替代、纯内需、高股息等方向 华鑫证券近日发布化工行业研究：化工产品价格方面，本周部分产品有所反弹，其中本周上涨较多的 有：甲苯上涨25.22%，液氯上涨13.73%，甲基环硅氧烷上涨13.64%，硫酸上涨11.11%等，但仍有不少 产品价格下跌，其中丁二烯跌幅-7.89%，醋酸乙烯跌幅-4.35%，二氯甲烷跌幅-4.23%，燃料油跌 幅-3.80%。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 甲苯、液氯等涨幅居前，丁二烯、醋酸乙烯等跌幅较大本周涨幅较大的产品：甲苯（FOB韩国， 25.22%），液氯（华东地区，13.73%），甲基环硅氧烷（DMC华东，13.64%），硫酸（杭州颜料化工 厂105%，11.11%），硫磺（CFR中国合同价，10.00%），电池级碳酸锂（新疆99.5%min，8.78%）， 锂电池电解液（全国均价/磷酸铁锂电解液，8.70%），合成氨（河北金源，8.58%），硫酸（双狮 98%，8.00%），工业级碳酸锂（四川99.0%min，7.59%）。 本周跌幅较大的产品：双酚A（华东，-2.05%），PVC（华东乙烯法，-2.06%），丙烯（ ...

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Xingfa Group's stock price has dropped by 5.02%, currently trading at 31.25 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 34.477 billion CNY [1] - Xingfa Group, established on August 17, 1994, and listed on June 16, 1999, is primarily engaged in the mining and sales of phosphate rock, production and sales of chemical products such as phosphates, fertilizers, glyphosate, and organosilicon [1] - The revenue composition of Xingfa Group includes specialty chemicals (17.88%), pesticides (17.57%), trade logistics (17.19%), others (14.22%), fertilizers (13.16%), mining (10.60%), and organosilicon series (9.37%) [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of fund holdings, one fund under Huaan Fund has a significant position in Xingfa Group, with Huaan CSI 500 Index Enhanced A holding 8,900 shares, accounting for 0.57% of the fund's net value [2] - The Huaan CSI 500 Index Enhanced A fund has a total scale of 31.0349 million CNY and has achieved a return of 23.87% this year, ranking 2016 out of 4208 in its category [2] - The fund manager, Zhang Xu, has been in position for 5 years and 189 days, with the best fund return during his tenure being 142.52% [3]

Group 1 - The report highlights that Xingfa Group's Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 16.17% year-on-year, driven by rising prices of glyphosate and other products, with a total revenue of 91.61 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a 5.96% year-on-year growth [3][4][9] - The report indicates that the average price of glyphosate reached 26,530 yuan per ton in Q3 2025, up 5% year-on-year, while the average price of phosphate rock remained high at 1,020 yuan per ton [4][6] - The acquisition of a 50% stake in Qiaogou Mining is expected to enhance the company's phosphate resource advantages, increasing its phosphate resource reserves from 3.95 billion tons to 5.80 billion tons [7][8] Group 2 - The report notes that Leap Motor's Q3 revenue surged by 97.3% year-on-year to 194.5 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 14.5%, marking a significant improvement [11][12] - The company is expanding its product lineup with the introduction of the D19 flagship model and the upcoming A10 model, which is expected to enhance its market position [13] - Leap Motor's export volume reached 17,000 units in Q3 2025, leading among new car manufacturers, and the company plans to accelerate its global localization strategy [14] Group 3 - Geely Automobile reported a Q3 revenue of 891.9 billion yuan, a 27% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 38.2 billion yuan, reflecting a 59% year-on-year growth [16][17] - The company has adjusted its annual sales target to 3 million units, with significant contributions from its Galaxy series of vehicles [18] - Geely's export volume reached 112,000 units in Q3 2025, indicating strong overseas demand and competitive positioning [19] Group 4 - The report on Lianqi Technology emphasizes its leadership in memory interconnect chips, with a revenue of 6.33 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a 57.83% year-on-year increase [21][22] - The global AI server shipment is projected to grow significantly, with Lianqi expected to capture a 36.8% market share in the memory interconnect chip market by 2024 [22][23] - The company has launched new products based on CXL technology, which are anticipated to drive future growth [23] Group 5 - The report indicates that Xinyang's Q3 revenue reached 387 million yuan, with a significant increase in beauty treatment service revenue, which grew by 304.6% year-on-year [25][26] - The company plans to expand its offline medical beauty stores to 50 by the end of the year, enhancing its market presence [25] - Despite a net loss in Q3, the company expects profitability improvements in Q4 due to seasonal demand recovery [26] Group 6 - Trip.com Group reported a Q3 net operating revenue of 18.3 billion yuan, a 16% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 19.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 194% year-on-year growth [29][30] - The company is benefiting from resilient domestic travel demand and strong growth in international business, particularly in cross-border travel [30][31] - The report anticipates continued growth in the global OTA business, with significant contributions from the Asia-Pacific region [31][32] Group 7 - Pinduoduo's Q3 revenue reached 108.3 billion yuan, a 9% year-on-year increase, with a Non-GAAP net profit of 31.4 billion yuan, up 14% year-on-year [39][40] - The report highlights a slowdown in advertising revenue growth, while transaction commission revenue continues to show steady performance [41] - The company is focusing on long-term value creation through increased investments in merchant support and platform development [42]

Core Viewpoint - Xingfa Group's glyphosate production capacity is currently at 230,000 tons per year, with an overall operating rate exceeding 80% [2] Company Summary - The total production capacity of glyphosate facilities is 230,000 tons per year [2] - The overall operating rate of the facilities is more than 80% [2] Industry Summary - The glyphosate production capacity and operating rates indicate a strong performance in the agricultural chemicals sector [2]

Core Viewpoint - Xingfa Group achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.318 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.31% [1] Financial Performance - In Q3, the net profit attributable to shareholders reached 592 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 16.17% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 42.15% [1] Market Conditions - The price of the company's main product, phosphate rock, remains high, while prices for glyphosate and other products continue to rise [1] Strategic Developments - The company acquired a 50% stake in Qiaogou Mining, further enhancing its phosphate resource advantages [1] - Post-acquisition, the company's mining rights for phosphate resources will increase from 395 million tons to 580 million tons, significantly boosting phosphate mining capacity [1] Competitive Position - The enhancement of phosphate resource advantages and new material projects are expected to provide new profit growth points, maintaining a "buy" rating for the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xingfa Group's stock has shown significant growth this year, with a 67.39% increase, indicating strong market performance and investor interest [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Xingfa Group achieved a revenue of 23.781 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.85% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 1.318 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.31% year-on-year [2]. Stock Market Activity - As of November 19, Xingfa Group's stock price was 34.65 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 38.228 billion yuan [1]. - The stock experienced a trading volume of 1.066 billion yuan on the same day, with a turnover rate of 2.85% [1]. - Over the past five trading days, the stock price increased by 6.35%, and over the last 20 and 60 days, it rose by 31.25% and 37.77%, respectively [1]. Shareholder Information - As of October 31, the number of shareholders for Xingfa Group increased to 54,600, a rise of 10.89% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 9.82% to 20,224 shares [2]. Dividend Distribution - Xingfa Group has cumulatively distributed 4.814 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 2.869 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the eighth largest circulating shareholder, holding 12.038 million shares, an increase of 1.8178 million shares from the previous period [3]. - Penghua Zhongzheng Subdivision Chemical Industry Theme ETF was a new entrant among the top ten shareholders, holding 11.5706 million shares [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Xingfa Group's stock price dropped by 5.03% to 33.81 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.411 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 3.69%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 37.301 billion CNY [1] - Xingfa Group, established on August 17, 1994, and listed on June 16, 1999, is primarily engaged in the mining and sales of phosphate rock, production and sales of chemical products such as phosphates, fertilizers, glyphosate, and organosilicon, as well as trading activities [1] - The revenue composition of Xingfa Group includes: specialty chemicals 17.88%, pesticides 17.57%, trade logistics 17.19%, others 14.22%, fertilizers 13.16%, mining 10.60%, and organosilicon series 9.37% [1] Group 2 - Among the top ten circulating shareholders of Xingfa Group, a fund under Southern Fund holds a position. The Southern CSI 500 ETF (510500) reduced its holdings by 219,000 shares in the third quarter, now holding 11.2325 million shares, which accounts for 1.02% of the circulating shares [2] - The estimated floating loss for the Southern CSI 500 ETF today is approximately 20.1061 million CNY [2] - The Southern CSI 500 ETF was established on February 6, 2013, with a latest scale of 140.098 billion CNY, achieving a year-to-date return of 28.29% and a one-year return of 23.95% [2]

Market Overview - The market exhibited a clear style with significant local gains, particularly in the aquaculture sector, which opened strongly but later retreated [3][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index closed down by 0.46%, 0.11%, and 0.2% respectively, indicating a mixed market performance [4] Aquaculture Sector - The aquaculture sector saw a collective surge at the opening, with stocks like Zhongshui Fishery and Kaichuang International hitting the upper limit, but most stocks fell back after the initial spike [7] - The sector opened over 10% higher but ultimately closed up by 4.57%, driven by heightened market sentiment following previous minor movements and regulatory news regarding Japanese seafood imports [7] Fujian Local Stocks - Fujian local stocks experienced a strong rally, with notable performances from Sanmu Group (7 consecutive gains) and Jiumuwang (4 consecutive gains), among others [12] - The sector closed up by 6.87%, influenced by weekend catalysts and the suspension of leading stock Hefuchina, prompting funds to seek low-position rebounds [12][13] Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium battery sector surged due to a significant increase in lithium carbonate futures prices, with stocks like Furui Co. achieving 8 consecutive gains [3][7] Jiangshan Co. - Jiangshan Co. was noted for its traditional glyphosate concept but experienced a high opening followed by a drop, closing down by 1.59% [10][11] Other Notable Stocks - Stocks related to the "day" theme, such as Risheng Group and Zhuoyue New Energy, saw local gains, with Furui Co. being the standout performer with 8 consecutive gains [18]

证券日报网讯和邦生物（603077）11月14日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，就双甘膦、草甘膦产 品，公司已与Nufarm、润丰股份（301035）、好收成、江山股份（600389）等众多国内外知名农化品 生产商、农业服务商已经形成良好的供应链关系。同时，公司严格按照规定履行信息披露义务，在定期 报告中披露了前五大客户和供应商的销售额、采购额等数据。 ...