伦敦现货价白银美 元_20250113_173521.xlsx 周期组："反内卷"政策对周期子行业的 影响探讨 2025 年 7 月 11 日 看好/维持 有色金属 行业报告 | 分析师 | 张天丰 电话：021-25102914 邮箱：zhang_tf@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480520100001 | | --- | --- | --- | | 分析师 | 曹奕丰 电话：021-25102904 邮箱：caoyf_yjs@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480519050005 | | 分析师 | 赵军胜 电话：010-66554088 邮箱：zhaojs@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480512070003 | | 分析师 | 刘宇卓 电话：010-66554030 邮箱：liuyuzhuo@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480516110002 | | 分析师 | 莫文娟 电话：010-66555574 邮箱：mowj@dxzq.net.cn | 执业证书编号：S1480524070001 | | 研究助理 | 闵泓朴 电话：02 ...

农药专家电话会 - 草甘膦及草铵膦近况交流 20250709 摘要 草甘膦市场在经历价格高峰后进入去库存阶段，目前已进入补库存阶段， 企业涨价意愿强烈，下游采购商购买意愿增强，共同推动价格上涨。但 当前库存仍高于历史水平，涨价过程预计缓慢，需持续观察市场需求。 草铵膦价格近一个月呈现下滑趋势，主要受国内产能过剩和库存高企影 响。中国农药工业协会发布氯离子限量标准，可能提升生产成本，从而 导致草铵膦价格大幅提升至 6 万元左右。 长江中下游地区存在草甘膦产能关停或检修情况，开工率与市场需求端 关系密切。有机硅开工下降影响草甘膦生产，甘氨酸价格对草甘膦价格 的影响主要集中在华东地区。 草铵膦生产过程中氯离子的限制将对行业产生较大影响，不符合新标准 的产品将被认定为质量不合格，企业需增加废液处理成本，符合新标准 的产品市场销售价格可能达到 6 万元左右。 农药行业通过提高产品质量标准来解决内卷问题，严格要求将使大量低 价产品因不符合标准而退出市场。安全事故频发促使应急管理部加强监 管，河南省要求硝化企业改用管式连续化装备和工艺。 Q&A 草甘膦价格近期上涨的主要原因是什么？ 草甘膦价格近期上涨主要有以下几个原因：首 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the issue of invasive species in Guangdong Province, highlighting their ecological impact and the need for effective control measures [4][39]. Invasive Species Overview - Guangdong is one of the regions in China with the highest number of invasive species, with hundreds identified that threaten local ecosystems and agricultural safety [4][5]. - Invasive species can damage crops, outcompete native plants, and disrupt ecological balance due to the absence of natural predators [5][6]. Specific Invasive Species 1. Pomacea canaliculata (Golden Apple Snail) - Originally from the Amazon basin, this species was introduced to China in the 1980s and has rapidly spread in Guangdong's rice fields [10][11]. - It has a high feeding rate, consuming up to 40% of its body weight daily, primarily targeting young rice seedlings and vegetables, which severely affects crop emergence rates [12]. - The reproductive capacity is significant, with each snail capable of laying 200-1000 eggs multiple times a year, making control efforts challenging [13][15]. 2. Mikania micrantha (Mile-a-Minute Vine) - This perennial vine, native to Central America, has spread widely in Guangdong, particularly in forested areas and orchards [20][21]. - It grows rapidly, extending over 20 cm per day, and can smother native plants, leading to their death and causing severe ecological damage [22][24]. 3. Bidens pilosa (Spanish Needle) - Originally from tropical America, this species is now common in Guangdong's farmland and wastelands [29][30]. - It has strong adaptability and prolific reproduction, competing with crops for light, water, and nutrients, which can hinder agricultural productivity [31][32]. Control Measures - The article emphasizes the importance of public participation in controlling invasive species and provides specific strategies for managing the highlighted species [37][39]. - For Pomacea canaliculata, methods include manual collection and the use of specific pesticides while adhering to safety regulations [18][16]. - For Mikania micrantha, mechanical removal and targeted herbicide application are recommended to prevent its spread [26][28]. - For Bidens pilosa, early removal before flowering and the use of selective herbicides are suggested to minimize its impact on crops [34][36].

Group 1: Northbound Capital Analysis - In Q2 2025, Northbound capital actively increased positions in both traditional economy sectors and new tracks, with significant additions in non-ferrous metals, transportation, public utilities, non-bank financials, and construction decoration [2][22] - Major reductions were observed in food and beverage, home appliances, and machinery sectors, indicating a shift from core assets to traditional economy and from old tracks to new tracks [2][22] - The absolute holding amounts showed significant decreases for companies like BOE A (-38.39%), Luxshare Precision (-38.29%), and Wuliangye (-30.22%) [23][24] Group 2: Dollar Outlook - The report suggests that the downtrend of the dollar is expected to continue at least until mid-2025, with recent upticks being merely a "rebound" rather than a "reversal" [3][29] - Factors contributing to the dollar's decline include deteriorating U.S. fiscal conditions and a loss of attractiveness as a global reserve currency [3][27] - The report anticipates a potential rebound in Q3 2025, but maintains that the overall downtrend remains dominant [29] Group 3: Credit Bond ETF Strategy - Since May, the credit bond market has exhibited independent trends, driven by rapid growth in credit bond ETF scales and expectations for future space [4][30] - The trading activity of component bonds has significantly increased, with higher turnover rates compared to non-component bonds [30][31] - The report indicates that the valuation of component bonds may further compress, with potential trading opportunities in non-component bonds due to liquidity premiums [32] Group 4: Company-Specific Insights - Daikin Heavy Industries is positioned as the only supplier in the Asia-Pacific region capable of delivering offshore products to the European market, with a strong order backlog [11][35] - The company has transitioned to a DAP (Delivered at Place) product model, enhancing its service offerings and increasing order value [11][35] - Revenue projections for Daikin Heavy Industries are set at 6.51 billion, 8.40 billion, and 9.74 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profit estimates adjusted to 1.05 billion, 1.37 billion, and 1.76 billion yuan respectively [11][36] Group 5: Chemical Industry Analysis - Xin'an Chemical is recognized as a leading player in the glyphosate and silicone markets, with expectations for improved market conditions in the silicone sector [12][20] - The company has a glyphosate production capacity of 80,000 tons and is expanding its product range under a "1+2+N" strategy [12][20] - Revenue forecasts for Xin'an Chemical are projected at 15.5 billion, 17.3 billion, and 18.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits expected to reach 299 million, 651 million, and 802 million yuan [12][20]

有机硅+农药，有机硅产能国内排名第五，草甘膦销售市占率行业前三，向上布局工业硅及硅矿，实现原 材料配套，客户包括宁德、比亚迪等名企，这家公司化工新材料围绕"磷基、硅基"产业链拓展产品矩阵。 前言 《电报解读》是一款主打时效性和专业性的即时资讯解读产品。 侧重于挖掘重要事件的投资价值、分 析产业链公司以及解读重磅政策的要点。即时为用户提供快讯信息对市场影响的投资参考，将信息的价 值用专业的视角、朴素的语言、图文并茂的方式呈现给用户。 ...

长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者黄聪 尚纬股份（603333.SH）变更新的领导班子后，尚未摆脱亏损局面。 7月8日晚间，尚纬股份公告显示，预计2025年上半年净利润为-2700万元到-3500万元。 尚纬股份介绍，2025年上半年，受宏观经济环境和市场竞争加剧的影响，公司销售收入下降，预计实现营业收入 5.49亿元，与上年同期相比，下降了约25%，导致经营业绩亏损。 尚纬股份由李广元创立，2016年6月，他因涉嫌单位行贿罪、行贿罪和虚开增值税专用发票罪，被判11年有期徒 刑。 随后，李广元将尚纬股份交给了哥哥李广胜打理，但后者因犯操纵证券市场罪，被判处有期徒刑三年二个月。 兄弟俩身陷囹圄后，2025年5月，尚纬股份控股股东由李广胜变更为福华通达化学股份公司（以下简称"福华化 学"），实际控制人由李广胜变更为张华。 就此，尚纬股份的"李氏兄弟时代"落幕。 2025年6月，尚纬股份选举叶洪林为公司董事长，其重振上市公司业绩的压力较大。 扣非净利最高预亏3900万 尚纬股份是集高端特种电缆产品的研发、生产、销售和服务于一体的国家高新技术企业。 7月8日晚间，尚纬股份发布2025年半年度业绩预亏公告，经财务部门初步测算 ...

全球经济趋势对化工行业有何影响？ 2025 年全球经济增长预期为 2.8%，较去年有所回落。新兴国家表现相对较好， 但发达国家仍面临高通胀压力，整体需求增速偏弱。此外，中美贸易战等因素 影响了国内出口，特别是醋酸、聚醇酶和草甘膦等主要化工品的出口量有所下 磷化工上游资源短缺：磷矿资源短缺维持高景气，虽有新产能，但投产 不及预期及政策限制，磷矿释放量或低于预期，利好云天化和七花集团 昌宏股份。 AI 服务器升级带动材料产业：AI 服务器升级换代带动材料产业升级换代 需求，如高德素质 PP 产业受益显著，东泰科技收入端预计有较大增长， 明年也有新产品释放。 降。因此，尽管全球经济保持小幅增长，但对化工行业的需求支撑力度有限。 景气为引，成长相随—化工行业 2025 年度中期投资策略 20250708 摘要 化工行业整体下行：毛利率和利润持续下降，受商品价格指数 CCPI 及 煤炭、原油价格影响，航空产品价差显示行业普遍亏损，尚未出现明确 拐点。 全球经济增长放缓：2025 年全球经济增长预期回落至 2.8%，发达国家 高通胀压力持续，新兴市场表现相对较好，中美贸易战影响化工品出口， 需求支撑力度有限。 资本开支增 ...

反内卷，怎么反？ 总量联合行业投资机会全解析 20250708 摘要 当前反内卷政策强调结构性调整，旨在通过提高高质量供给比例实现产 业升级，与 2016 年钢铁、煤炭行业去产能政策不同，后者主要解决周 期性供求失衡，而当前问题更多是结构性的，有质量好的供给不足，有 质量差的供给过剩。 新修订的《反不正当竞争法》增加了关于治理内卷式竞争的规定，明确 禁止地方政府违法违规补贴行为，并要求严格执行公平条例，加强对低 价、低质产品及偷工减料等行为的监管，规范市场环境。 2023-2024 年中国工业用电量增长远快于工业增加值，但目前工业增 加值在增长，用电量在下降，表明投资放缓，产能出清顺应时局。传统 行业如钢铁、化工可能通过自发出清和政府帮助改善供给格局。 光伏产业面临硅料环节产能过剩、全产业链亏损销售等挑战。监管层可 能加强对低价销售的惩罚措施，并关注硅料产能收储整合平台公司的设 立。风电、储能、新能源车等子行业也有望受益。 Q&A 反内卷政策的背景和主要目标是什么？ 反内卷政策的背景源于 2025 年 7 月 1 日召开的二十届第六次财经委会议，会 议的主要议题是共同推进全国统一大市场建设，具体聚焦在综合整治 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Sichuan Hebang Biotechnology Co., Ltd., is actively responding to regulatory inquiries regarding its 2024 annual report, particularly focusing on its mining operations and financial disclosures related to its mineral resources [1][2]. Mining Operations - The company holds a total of 40 mining rights, including 34 exploration rights and 6 mining rights, with an investment of approximately 620 million yuan for acquiring these rights [1][2]. - The mining sector has become a core contributor to the company's operating profits, with an expected profit contribution of 250 million yuan from phosphate rock sales in 2024 [1][2]. - The company employs a phased investment and rolling development strategy in its mining operations to manage risks and ensure cash flow [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a total operating income of 8.547 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 3.13% year-on-year, with a net profit of 31 million yuan, down 97.55% from the previous year [1][12]. - The phosphate and salt mines have generated significant revenue, with phosphate sales expected to increase as construction projects are completed [5][12]. Investment Strategy - The company is strategically expanding into the mining sector, aligning with macroeconomic policies and market conditions, while leveraging its existing resources and personnel expertise [9][10]. - The company has established a robust management structure and has recruited over 180 new employees in the mining sector since 2024, enhancing its operational capabilities [8][9]. Risk Management - The company utilizes a joint venture model for overseas mining projects to mitigate risks and ensure compliance with local regulations [10][11]. - A comprehensive risk control framework is in place for both domestic and international mining operations, focusing on environmental protection, safety, and regulatory compliance [10][11]. Sales and Revenue Breakdown - The company has achieved significant sales in its mining operations, with phosphate and salt mines contributing to the majority of its revenue [5][12]. - The sales model primarily involves internal sales within the group, with a high collection rate of 90% on receivables [5][12].

[Table_Reportdate] 2025年07月08日 标配 行 业 周 报 [证券分析师 Table_Authors] [table_main] 投资要点： 行 业 研 究 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 张晶磊 S0630524090001 zjlei@longone.com.cn 证券分析师 谢建斌 S0630522020001 xjb@longone.com.cn [table_stockTrend] -17% -9% 0% 8% 17% 25% 34% 24-07 24-10 25-01 25-04 申万行业指数:基础化工(0722) 沪深300 [相关研究 table_product] 1.卫星化学（002648）：美国恢复对 华乙烷出口，看好公司稀缺性、成长 性——公司简评报告 2.小米、荣耀等新产品频出，关注新 材料国产化进程——基础化工行业 周报（2025/6/23-2025/6/29） 3.供给优化的弹性β，需求驱动的优 质α——基础化工2025中期投资策 略 [Table_NewTitle 反内卷政策持续发力， ...