Core Viewpoint - UBS maintains a "Sell" rating on MTR Corporation (00066) due to unattractive risk/return profile and lowers earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 2% to 12% reflecting higher interest expenses [1] Financial Projections - Target price increased from HKD 21.6 to HKD 24, representing a 30% discount to net asset value per share [1] - Estimated funding gap of HKD 117 billion for MTR from 2025 to 2029 due to rising capital expenditures on new railway projects and increased interest expenses [1] Dividend and Cash Flow Analysis - MTR's dividend yield is 4.7%, compared to an average of 5.4% for leading developers, indicating limited upside for dividends and weak independent credit status [1] - Projected negative free cash flow after dividends for 2025 is HKD -12.98 billion, with further negative projections for 2026 to 2029 of HKD -8.517 billion, HKD -26.369 billion, HKD -34.47 billion, and HKD -35.078 billion respectively [1] - Expected dividend per share for the next two years is HKD 1.31 [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS maintains a "sell" rating on MTR Corporation, reflecting a lack of attractive risk/reward profile, while lowering earnings per share forecasts for 2025 to 2027 by 2% to 12% due to increased interest expenses [1] Financial Projections - Target price raised from HKD 21.6 to HKD 24, representing a 30% discount to net asset value per share [1] - Estimated funding gap of HKD 117 billion for MTR from 2025 to 2029 due to rising capital expenditures on new railway projects and increased interest expenses [1] Debt and Dividend Concerns - If the land market remains sluggish, the net asset-to-debt ratio (considering perpetual capital securities as debt) could approach 100% by 2029, raising concerns about the sustainability of long-term dividends [1]