瑞银指，由于新铁路项目的资本开支不断增加，加上利息支出上升，估计港铁在2025至2029年期间可能 面对1170亿港元的资金缺口。若土地市场持续低迷，地铁的净资产负债比率(将永久资本证券视为债务) 到2029年可能接近100%，令人关注长期股息的可持续性。 智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，维持港铁公司(00066)"沽售"评级，以反映风险/回报缺乏吸引 力。同时调低2025至2027年每股盈利预测2至12%，以反映较高的利息支出。目标价则由21.6港元升至 24港元，相当于每股资产净值折让30%。 该行指，港铁股息率为4.7%，而龙头开发商的平均股息率为5.4%，风险回报并不吸引，因为每股派息 上升空间有限，且独立信贷状况较弱，令股息率受压。另外，2009至2018年上升周期的历史表现显示， 港铁在住宅物业复苏初期的表现逊于龙头发展商。 瑞银料港铁2025年派息后的自由现金流为负129.8亿港元(2024年为负100.82亿港元)、2026至2029年派息 后的自由现金流预测为负85.17亿、263.69亿、344.7亿及350.78亿港元。该行料港铁今明两年每股派息均 为1.31港元。 ...

瑞银指，由于新铁路项目的资本开支不断增加，加上利息支出上升，估计港铁在2025至2029年期间可能 面对1170亿港元的资金缺口。若土地市场持续低迷，地铁的净资产负债比率(将永久资本证券视为债务) 到2029年可能接近100%，令人关注长期股息的可持续性。 瑞银发表报告，维持港铁"沽售"评级，以反映风险/回报缺乏吸引力，同时调低2025至2027年每股盈利 预测2至12%，以反映较高的利息支出，目标价则由21.6港元上调至24港元，相当于每股资产净值折让 30%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that since 2020, the rise in high dividend yields and improved transparency in fundamentals have driven the performance of Chinese banks, with a focus on the sustainability of dividends depending on profit outlook and liquidity [1][2] Group 1: Dividend Sustainability - The key issue for Chinese banks is the sustainability of dividends, which relies on profit prospects and liquidity [1] - UBS maintains an optimistic view on the sustainability of dividends and further increases in Chinese bank stocks [1] Group 2: Profit Growth and Forecasts - UBS's base case scenario predicts that Chinese banks will maintain stable profit growth and resume revenue growth from 2026, while keeping provisions steady [1] - The bank expects income transparency to improve from 2025, with net interest margin (NIM) bottoming out in 2026 [2] Group 3: Stock Ratings and Target Prices - UBS raised target prices for several banks, including increasing the target price for Bank of Communications from HKD 5.95 to HKD 8.6 and upgrading its rating from "Neutral" to "Buy" [1] - The target price for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China was raised from HKD 5.98 to HKD 7.79, and for China Construction Bank from HKD 7.4 to HKD 10.2 [1] Group 4: Market Performance - As of July 28, 2023, the MSCI China Bank Index has risen by 79% since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, outperforming both Hong Kong and A-share markets [2] - The proportion of H-shares held by southbound funds is expected to double from 19% in 2023 to 41% by 2025, driven by increased inflows, particularly from Chinese insurance companies [2] Group 5: Revenue Sources - Non-interest income, especially from investment and trading activities, is becoming a more significant revenue source, potentially contributing up to 5% of revenue growth by 2029 [2] - Although asset yield remains under pressure, positive deposit rate cuts, robust loan growth, and bond growth are expected to support net interest income [2]

Core Viewpoint - UBS report indicates that since 2020, the rise in high dividend yields and improved transparency in fundamentals have driven the performance of Chinese bank stocks. The sustainability of dividends is now a key issue, dependent on the profit outlook and liquidity of these banks [1] Group 1: Profit Outlook and Dividend Sustainability - UBS's base case scenario predicts that Chinese banks will maintain stable profit growth and resume revenue growth starting in 2026, while keeping a steady provisioning path. The firm holds an optimistic view on the sustainability of dividends and potential further increases for Chinese banks [1] Group 2: Stock Ratings and Target Prices - UBS has raised target prices across the board for Chinese bank H-shares, finding dividend returns above 5% attractive. The investment rating for Bank of Communications has been upgraded from "Neutral" to "Buy," with the target price increased from HKD 5.95 to HKD 8.6 [1] - The firm reiterated "Buy" ratings for Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of China, and CITIC Bank, with target prices adjusted: ICBC from HKD 5.98 to HKD 7.79, CCB from HKD 7.4 to HKD 10.2 [1] - China Merchants Bank's rating has been downgraded from "Buy" to "Neutral" due to high valuation and lower dividend yield compared to peers, with the target price raised from HKD 52 to HKD 56 [1]

I've read several articles recently suggesting that United Parcel Service (UPS -0.55%) should cut its dividend. The reasoning is that the world's largest package delivery company could create more value for shareholders if it did. While the idea of a dividend cut might be appealing to some, I suspect many income investors won't like it one bit. If you're in that group, you might be wondering if UPS' 6.7%-yielding dividend is sustainable. Here's what you need to know. Reasons for concernIf UPS already had am ...