Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The high contribution rate of net exports to China's GDP in Q1 2025 does not mean high dependence on exports; instead, it is mainly due to import substitution [2][4] - China's exports may remain at a relatively high level in the second half of 2025, and the economy may be better than expected, leading to an upward movement in bond yields and the stock market [6][8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs China's Export Dependence - China's export-to-nominal GDP ratio is relatively low compared to most countries and historical levels. In 2023, it was 19% (ranked 130th), lower than South Korea (44%, ranked 56th), Germany (43%, ranked 62nd), France (34%, ranked 86th), and Japan (22%, ranked 120th). From 1970 - 2006, it trended upward, reaching a maximum of 35%; from 2007 - 2019, it trended downward, with a minimum of 17%; from 2020 - 2024, it rebounded slightly, ranging from 17 - 19% [3] Import Substitution - In Q1 2025, the high contribution rate of net exports to GDP (nearly 40%) was mainly due to a low import growth rate (-7%) rather than a high export growth rate (+5.7%). The low import growth is related to import substitution, which may continue for a long time due to China's complete industrial chain and high - cost - performance products. In June 2025, China maintained a high - export and low - import situation [4][5] Export Outlook - Due to the "global trade dynamic balance" and the "wide fiscal" policies of major economies, China's exports may remain relatively stable. As long as the US continues its loose fiscal policy, its total demand and imports will not decline significantly, and China's total exports will remain stable. "Anything But Bond" may become the dominant global strategy [6] Economic Expectations and Market Trends - Some market views believe that China's economy may face pressure in the second half of the year. However, considering the stable export situation, the economy in the second half of 2025 may be better than expected, leading to a correction in market expectations and an upward movement in bond yields and the stock market [7][8]

作者：钟渝梅 陶川 关税风险下，主要外贸大省都在积极应对、 " 闯关突围 " 。 在全国出口额几乎被广东、江苏、浙江、山东、上海 " 包揽 " 的情况下，观 测五大外贸省的出口形势也成为 " 贸易冲突 2.0" 的一大风向标。 讨论关税的影响几何，重要的是观察外贸大省们如何应对。 从出口产品 多元化和对美出口依赖度的角度来看， 山东的 " 抗风险 " 能力更强，而广东、上海、江苏就稍弱些； 从内需对冲外需下行压力的角度来 看， 山东、江苏的空间更大，而广东、上海需要更多的政策予以支持。 往前看，五个外贸省中，谁能更好地抵御接下来的外贸冲击？ 我们尝试从 出口产品多元化程度、对美出口依赖度、内需韧性 这三个角度 出发，给予这个问题更好的回答： 视角一：出口产品的多元化程度。 鉴于美国将关税暂缓 90 天为国内出口的 " 退中求进 " 提供了缓冲，我们认为 在这 90 天时间内，将更 有利于 出口产品多元化程度较高的省份 去 " 抢转口 " 。通过估算（图 5 ）， 五大外贸省份的出口产品多元化程度排名为：山东 ≈ 浙江＞ 广东＞上海＞江苏。 这也意味着至少二季度山东、浙江这两大外贸省份面临的出口下行压力相对偏小 ...

"关税冲击下的中国"系列（一） 关税观察: 外贸大省招几何？ 2025 年 04 月 24 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 研究助理：钟渝梅 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100124080017 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhongyumei@mszq.com ➢ 关税风险下，主要外贸大省都在积极应对、"闯关突围"。在全国出口额几乎 被广东、江苏、浙江、山东、上海"包揽"的情况下，观测五大外贸省的出口形 势也成为"贸易冲突 2.0"的一大风向标。因此讨论关税的影响几何，重要的是 观察外贸大省们如何应对——从出口产品多元化和对美出口依赖度的角度来看， 山东的"抗风险"能力更强，而广东、上海、江苏就稍弱些；从内需对冲外需下 行压力的角度来看，山东、江苏的空间更大，而广东、上海需要更多的政策予以 支持。 ➢ 对于外贸大省而言，出口对经济造成的负面影响正逐步显现。其实从 2024 年开始，五大外贸省的出口金额增速就明显高于其他省份，"抢出口"现象主要还 是集中在外贸大省。然而今年外贸大省与其他省份之间的出口增速差距渐小，"抢 出口"的"动力"开始边际走弱 ...