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7.21尿素日评:期货领涨现货跟风,需求谨慎压制上行空间
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-22 04:50
Core Viewpoint - The urea market is experiencing a slight price increase, driven by strong futures prices and improved demand from downstream buyers, although overall demand remains cautious and supply pressures persist [3][4][5]. Urea Futures Market - On July 21, the urea UR509 futures contract opened at 1790, reached a high of 1818, and closed at 1812, reflecting an increase of 54 compared to the previous trading day's settlement price, a rise of 3.07% [3]. - The futures market is buoyed by macroeconomic policies from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and a generally strong commodity market atmosphere, which has positively influenced spot market transactions [3]. - The release of new export quotas and replenishment of fall compound fertilizer factories are expected to marginally improve market demand, easing some supply-demand tensions [3]. Spot Market Analysis - The domestic urea market saw a slight price increase, with improved purchasing willingness from mid and downstream sectors, although overall supply remains strong against weak demand expectations [4]. - Price ranges in various regions include: Northeast (1750-1790 CNY/ton), East China (1810-1860 CNY/ton), Central China (1790-1950 CNY/ton), North China (1720-1810 CNY/ton), South China (1840-1950 CNY/ton), Northwest (1900-1910 CNY/ton), and Southwest (1750-2030 CNY/ton) [4][6]. Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by a cautious approach from buyers, with prices expected to remain under pressure due to strong supply and weak demand [5]. - The overall sentiment in the market is influenced by macroeconomic policies and expectations of increased exports, which may provide some emotional support for prices [5]. - Current supply levels remain high, with daily production slightly down but still at elevated year-on-year levels, indicating a surplus in the market [5]. Price Adjustments - Specific price adjustments on July 21 include: Guangdong (1900-1920 CNY/ton), Guangxi (1840-1850 CNY/ton), and Hebei (1760-1780 CNY/ton) [7][8].