GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：文华、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 品种 周度观点 需求：9月受到开学和双节需求短暂提振，各方面数据保持稳定。但下游消费仍无明显改善，屠 宰企业鲜品走货一般，多数维持以销定产节奏，鲜销率未出现明显波动。 供给：周内猪价继续回落，养殖户恐慌出栏情绪仍存，节前社会场大猪供应持续偏高；规模集 团场来看，高成本企业已进入持续亏损状态，受后市悲观预期影响，场家亦有小幅降重加快出猪 现象，综合带动周内生猪出栏均重微幅回落。 生猪 库存：9 月份对应半年前仔猪出生和外销情况，规模企业商品猪存栏增加，且 8 月份养 殖端销售缓慢，尤其规模企业部分计划延后至 9 月份，因此预计 9 月商品猪存栏或环比增加。 结论：生猪仍处于供强需弱的状态，三季度以来，行业已经召开了三次行业大型会议，对于降 产能、降体重、严格限制二次育肥做了要求，但能繁母猪存栏量的减少传递到商品猪出栏量需要 10 个月左右时间，短期内供给压力难以根本缓解。生猪仍将维持"弱现实强预期"的局面。 G ...

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 沪胶 偏弱运行 宝城期货 陈栋 国庆长假期间，美国政府意外"停摆"，引发系统性风险，导致全球金融市场避险情绪急剧升温，风险 资产普遍承压。与此同时，台风"麦德姆"登陆并侵袭了我国南部重要产胶区，或带来减产预期，但产业方 面的利多预期难敌宏观层面的偏空情绪。节后归来，国内沪胶期货 2601 合约虽呈现超跌反弹态势，然而 期价受到 5 日均线的反向压制，并且当前中短期均线空头趋势明显，预计后市沪胶或延续偏弱运行姿态。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 美国政府"停摆"的负面影响凸显 由于美国国会参议院在当地时间 10 月 6 日未能通过新的临时拨款法案，民主党与共和党的提案均再 次被否决，美国政府"停摆"状态持续。美国政府在 2018 年年底至 2019 年年初为期 35 天的"停摆"给 GDP 造成了 30 亿美元的损失，据美国国会预算办公室估算，此次美国政府每"停摆"一周，经济增速将会下降约 0.15 个百分点，若把私营机构受到的影响计算在内，经济增速可能会下降 0.2 个百分点。整体来看，美国 政府"停摆"给经济和需求带来较大影响，并拖累大宗商品价格走势，这对沪胶期货同 ...

一假期蛋价超预期下跌 币场快讯- 期货盘面大幅跳空低开 长期来看,蛋鸡养殖规模持续提升或拉长价格底部周期,耐心等待养 殖端超淘驱动去产能进程的到来。 > 交易策略 节前持续提示大规模集中淘鸡发生前维持高空思路不变,且节前建议 前期空单可继续持有。 当前河北现货跌破2.5元/斤,今日早报提示今日开盘盘面或跳空低开, 前期空单可继续持有,建议逢低可考虑逐步止盈。 现货表现 假期期间鸡蛋市场供强需弱施压蛋价大幅走低。10月8日河北馆陶粉 蛋价格为2.49元/斤,较9月30日跌0.35元/斤。 > 期货表现 今日鸡蛋期货近月合约大幅跳空低开,2511合约开盘2890元/500ka. 跌幅4.24%,截至收稿盘面为2902元/500kg;远月合约表现相对平稳。 分析逻辑 中短期来看,阶段性供强需弱格局持续,蛋价承压走弱、局部区域跌 至饲料成本。重点关注低价驱动淘鸡力度和规模。 格林大华 期货研究院 证监许可 [2011] 1288号 从业资格:F0242716 交易咨询资格:Z0011864 联系甲话0371-65617380 息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确推及灵量性不作后倒保证，不保证报告信息已做最新变更 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年10月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为20516吨，环比增长0.75%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为98286吨，环比增加2.15%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为 17896吨，环比增加2.00%。 3 成本端来看，外购锂辉石精矿成本为75407元/吨，日环比减少0.03%,生产所得为-2927元/吨，有所亏 损；外购锂云母成本为78268元/吨，日环比减少0.58%,生产所得为-7776元/吨，有所亏损；回收端生 产成本接近矿石端成本，排产积极性一般；盐湖端季度现金生产成本为31745元/吨，盐湖端成本显著 低于矿石端，盈利空间充 ...

碳酸锂期货早报 2025年9月30日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为20516吨，环比增长0.75%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为98286吨，环比增加2.15%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为 17896吨，环比增加2.00%。 供给端，2025年8月碳酸锂产量为85240实物吨，预测下月产量为86730实物吨，环比增加1.75%,2025 年8月碳酸锂进口量为21847实物吨，预测下月进口量为19500实物吨，环比减少10.74%。需求端，预 计下月需求有所强化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CIF价格日度环比有所增长，低于历史同 期平均水平，供需格局转向 ...

Group 1: Report on Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel price of finished products is expected to run weakly with fluctuations [3]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Production Status - Last week, the scale of maintenance of construction steel mills significantly decreased and the scale of resumption of production increased. There were 5 maintenance production lines, 12 less than the previous week, and 8 resumption production lines, 6 more than the previous week. The production affected by production line maintenance was 257,800 tons last week, and it is expected to be 189,600 tons this week [2]. - The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.18%, a week - on - week increase of 4.39 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points. The daily average hot metal output was 2.4055 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 117,100 tons [2]. - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 55.26%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 18.52 percentage points [2]. Price and Market Situation - The price of Tangshan Qian'an common billet was stable at 3,010 yuan/ton last weekend [2]. - Finished products fluctuated and declined last week, with a rebound during Friday's trading session, but the whole week was mainly characterized by downward fluctuations to a recent low. After the military parade, the previously shut - down production capacity gradually recovered, and the hot metal output increased rapidly last week. The demand side changed little, showing a characteristic of strong supply and weak demand, which is expected to continue in the short term [2]. Later Concerns - Macro policies, supply - side production reduction situation, and downstream demand situation should be focused on [3]

Core Viewpoint - The pig market shows signs of stabilization after a period of continuous decline, with a slight increase in prices observed on September 12, 2025 [1] Price Monitoring - On September 12, the average price of pigs nationwide was 13.72 yuan per kilogram, which is an increase of 0.01 yuan per kilogram compared to the previous day [1] - The price trend indicates a mix of 4 regions experiencing price increases, 7 regions seeing declines, and 20 regions remaining stable, reflecting a downward trend overall [1] Market Analysis - The market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, with a notable increase in the sentiment of sellers holding back on sales [1] - The upcoming double holiday is expected to trigger some stocking up in demand, but the impact on prices is anticipated to be limited [1] Price Differential - The average price differential for the external three yuan pig price across 21 major regions was approximately 0.49 yuan per kilogram, which is an increase of 0.03 yuan per kilogram from the previous day [1] - This price differential remains below the average transportation cost of 0.56 yuan per kilogram, indicating ongoing supply chain pressures [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory levels. The overall industry pattern is deteriorating, facing double pressure from significant capacity growth and continuous decline in real - estate demand. In the short term, there are opportunities for short - selling on rallies, but it is necessary to guard against the return of anti - internal competition sentiment. In the medium term, without policies to clear out outdated production capacity, the supply - demand pattern will remain weak, and the industry may need to reduce valuations to clear out excess capacity [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton month - on - month; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2730 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 660 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton month - on - month. Chlor - alkali integrated profit remains high, while ethylene - based profit declines, and overall valuation support is weak [11]. - **Supply**: PVC capacity utilization rate is 77.1%, up 0.3% month - on - month. Among them, calcium carbide method is 76.7%, up 0.7% month - on - month; ethylene method is 78.1%, down 0.9% month - on - month. Last month, maintenance volume decreased, and new device production was released, increasing supply pressure. This month, maintenance is expected to further decrease, and there are new device commissioning plans, so supply pressure will still be large [11]. - **Demand**: In July, exports to India rebounded due to the extension of BIS certification and anti - dumping. However, the final anti - dumping tax rate for India has been announced and is expected to be implemented in about a month, which will likely lead to a decline in exports. The overall downstream load is 43.5%, up 1.5% month - on - month, but still lower than the same period last year, and overall demand is weak. The key for the demand side is whether exports can exceed expectations [11]. - **Inventory**: At the end of the month, factory inventory is 31.6 tons, with a month - on - month de - stocking of 3 tons; social inventory is 91.8 tons, with a month - on - month inventory build - up of 19.6 tons; overall inventory is 123.4 tons, with a month - on - month inventory build - up of 16.6 tons; warehouse receipts continue to increase. Currently in the inventory build - up cycle, if exports do not exceed expectations, inventory build - up will continue [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The document mainly presents multiple charts related to the PVC futures and spot market, including PVC term structure, spot basis, 1 - 5 spread, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume, but no specific text analysis is provided [15][16][23]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: Overall inventory has significantly increased. Factory inventory and social inventory trends are shown through charts, and the overall inventory is in a build - up state [31][37]. - **Profit**: Chlor - alkali integrated profit in Shandong using purchased calcium carbide, calcium carbide - based PVC profit, ethylene - based PVC profit, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide profit trends are presented through charts, showing that the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a high level this year, with relatively large valuation pressure [41]. 3.4 Cost Side Calcium carbide prices are fluctuating and rising, and inventory is increasing. The document also presents price trends of raw materials such as Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke, 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, liquid chlorine in Shandong, Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price, etc., but no specific text analysis is provided [47][48][50]. 3.5 Supply Side - In 2025, the capacity release of PVC is relatively large, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. A total of 250 tons of new capacity is expected to be put into production, including multiple projects using calcium carbide method and ethylene method [58][65]. - In August, PVC maintenance was relatively less, and the operating rate in September is expected to remain high. The operating rates of calcium carbide method, ethylene method, and overall PVC are presented through charts [66]. 3.6 Demand Side - The operating rates of downstream industries such as PVC pipes, films, and profiles are presented through charts, showing that the overall downstream operating rate has slightly rebounded but is still lower than the same period last year, and overall demand is weak [75]. - PVC export volume, export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and the relationship between China's housing completion area and new construction area are presented through charts. The key for the demand side is whether exports can exceed expectations. After the implementation of India's anti - dumping tax rate, export expectations are expected to weaken [77][80][82].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply - last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,138 tons, a 4.21% week - on - week decrease but higher than the historical average. In July 2025, production was 81,530 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 tons, a 3.27% increase. July's import volume was 13,845 tons, and next month's predicted import is 18,500 tons, a 33.62% increase [8][9]. - Demand - last week, the inventory of sample lithium iron phosphate enterprises was 93,640 tons, a 1.51% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of sample ternary material enterprises was 17,617 tons, a 1.86% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline [8]. - Cost - the daily CIF price of 6% concentrate is flat week - on - week, lower than the historical average, and the demand - led situation has weakened. Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 77,200 - 80,520 [9]. - Overall situation - due to capacity mismatch, supply is stronger than demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply: last week's production decreased week - on - week but was higher than the historical average. July's production and import volume are predicted to increase next month. - Demand: last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate enterprises decreased, while that of ternary material enterprises increased. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may decline. - Cost: the daily CIF price of 6% concentrate is flat week - on - week, lower than the historical average. - Expected range: lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate between 77,200 - 80,520 [8][9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Data**: - Lithium ore prices: the price of 6% lithium spodumene is $920/ton, flat week - on - week; the price of 2% - 2.5% lithium mica concentrate is 1,970 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week. - Lithium salt prices: the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 81,600 yuan/ton, a 0.12% week - on - week decrease; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 79,300 yuan/ton, a 0.13% week - on - week decrease. - Other prices: the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 56,400 yuan/ton, a 1.08% week - on - week increase [14]. - **Supply - Side Data**: - Lithium ore: the monthly production of lithium ore is expected to increase, and the import volume is also expected to increase significantly. - Lithium carbonate: the weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased week - on - week, and the monthly production is expected to increase. The import volume decreased month - on - month. - Lithium hydroxide: the weekly production of lithium hydroxide decreased week - on - week, and the monthly production is expected to increase. The export volume increased month - on - month [19]. - **Demand - Side Data**: - Lithium battery: the monthly output of lithium batteries increased month - on - month, and the demand for lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is expected to increase. - New energy vehicles: the monthly production and sales of new energy vehicles decreased month - on - month, and the penetration rate increased [20]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - Price: the price of lithium ore has fluctuated in recent years, and the current price is at a relatively low level. - Production: the production of domestic lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica has increased year - on - year. - Import: the import volume of lithium ore has increased year - on - year, mainly from Australia. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic lithium ore supply - demand balance has been in a state of shortage in recent years [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - Production: the weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate has increased year - on - year, mainly from lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and recycled materials. - Import: the import volume of lithium carbonate has decreased month - on - month, mainly from Chile. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic lithium carbonate supply - demand balance has been in a state of surplus in recent months [32]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - Production: the weekly and monthly production of lithium hydroxide has increased year - on - year, mainly from smelting and causticizing. - Export: the export volume of lithium hydroxide has increased year - on - year, mainly to overseas markets. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic lithium hydroxide supply - demand balance has been in a state of surplus in recent months [41]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - Lithium spodumene: the production cost of lithium spodumene has decreased week - on - week, and the production profit has increased. - Lithium mica: the production cost of lithium mica is flat week - on - week, and the production profit has decreased. - Lithium carbonate import: the import profit of lithium carbonate has decreased week - on - week. - Other aspects: the cost and profit of other lithium compounds, such as lithium hydroxide and recycled lithium carbonate, also show different trends [46]. 3.7 Inventory - Lithium carbonate: the total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased week - on - week, with the inventory of smelters decreasing and the inventory of downstream enterprises increasing. - Lithium hydroxide: the inventory of lithium hydroxide decreased week - on - week [54]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - Price: the price of lithium batteries has fluctuated in recent years, and the current price is at a relatively low level. - Output: the monthly output of lithium batteries has increased year - on - year, mainly for power batteries and energy - storage batteries. - Demand: the demand for lithium batteries is expected to increase in the future, driven by the development of new energy vehicles and energy - storage industries [58]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - Price: the price of ternary precursors has fluctuated in recent years, and the current price is at a relatively low level. - Cost and profit: the production cost of ternary precursors has decreased week - on - week, and the production profit has increased. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic ternary precursor supply - demand balance has been in a state of surplus in recent months [63]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - Price: the price of ternary materials has fluctuated in recent years, and the current price is at a relatively low level. - Cost and profit: the production cost of ternary materials has decreased week - on - week, and the production profit has increased. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic ternary material supply - demand balance has been in a state of surplus in recent months [69]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - Price: the price of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium has fluctuated in recent years, and the current price is at a relatively low level. - Cost and profit: the production cost of phosphoric acid iron has decreased week - on - week, and the production profit has increased. The production cost of phosphoric acid iron lithium is flat week - on - week, and the production profit has decreased. - Supply - demand balance: the domestic phosphoric acid iron/phosphoric acid iron lithium supply - demand balance has been in a state of surplus in recent months [73]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - Production and sales: the monthly production and sales of new energy vehicles decreased month - on - month, and the penetration rate increased. - Retail - wholesale ratio: the retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles has increased year - on - year. - Inventory: the inventory warning index and inventory index of dealers have increased year - on - year [80].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The egg market is in a "peak season with weak performance" situation, facing a prominent contradiction of "strong supply and weak demand." The egg price has reached a low level in recent years, and the futures market has been declining to correct the premium. The start of back - to - school stocking this week is expected to be an important variable to stabilize the market [6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review (1) Futures Price - Last week, the egg futures market broke through the lower limit. The main 2510 contract hit a record low. As of the close on Friday, the JD2510 contract was reported at 3033 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 0.07%, with a trading volume of 526,351 lots and an open interest of 434,281 lots [4][13]. (2) Spot Price - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas last week was 3.19 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 5.63%, but still at a low level in the same period of history. The market showed a pattern of "weak reality," with the core contradiction of "loose supply and weak demand" remaining unresolved. The start of back - to - school stocking this week is expected to relieve the current supply - demand pressure [17]. (3) Chicken Chick Price - Last week, the average price of commercial chicken chicks in key national regions was 2.99 yuan per chick, a month - on - month decrease of 2.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.57%. The current utilization rate of hatching eggs is about 50%. Since February, the industry has been in deep losses, which has severely dampened the confidence of the breeding side, and the willingness to replenish chicks is poor [21]. (4) Old Hen Price - Last week, the average price of old hens in the representative market was 5.22 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 6.62%. The price decline continued. Due to the pessimistic expectation of the future market, most farmers chose to cull old hens, while some farmers had a wait - and - see attitude [25]. 2. Fundamental Analysis (1) Supply Side - **In - laying Hen Inventory**: In July, the national in - laying hen inventory was about 1.292 billion. It is expected that the number of newly - laid hens in August will be greater than the number of old hen slaughter, and the in - laying hen inventory will continue to increase, increasing the production capacity pressure [30]. - **Shipping Volume in Producing Areas**: The average daily shipping volume in the main producing areas was 6,066.71 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.56% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.94%. The logistics efficiency in the egg - producing areas decreased this week, and the egg price rose and then fell. The market bearish sentiment spread, and the inflow of cold - stored eggs into the market affected the fresh egg sales [35]. - **Old Hen Slaughter**: The total slaughter volume of old hens in the sample points last week was 513,100, a month - on - month increase of 6.63%. The average slaughter age was 502 days, unchanged from the previous month. The increase in slaughter volume was due to the continuous losses of farmers and the weakening of confidence in the peak season [40]. (2) Demand Side - **Arrival Volume in Selling Areas**: The arrival volume in the main selling areas rebounded slightly last week, but the increase in arrival volume did not effectively translate into consumption power, and the market remained weak [45]. - **Old Hen Slaughter Volume**: According to statistics, the total slaughter volume of old hens in 22 designated slaughter enterprises last week was 3.4307 million, a month - on - month increase of 44.26%. The increase in slaughter volume was due to the continuous low egg price, which severely dampened the breeding confidence, and farmers' culling willingness increased significantly [48]. (3) Inventory - As of last Friday, the national production - link inventory was 0.87 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.13 days. The egg inventory increased month - on - month, mainly due to the increase in supply from newly - laid hens and the weak terminal demand [52]. (4) Laying Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - Last week, the laying hen breeding cost was 3.55 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.28%. The breeding profit was - 0.34 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 35.85%. The price of corn and soybean meal showed different trends last week [56]. 3. Market Outlook - In August, the laying hen inventory continued to increase month - on - month, and the egg price reached a low level in recent years. The futures market continued to decline to correct the premium. Although it has entered the seasonal peak season, the terminal demand boost is far lower than expected, showing a prominent "peak season with weak performance" feature. The start of back - to - school stocking this week is expected to be an important variable to stabilize the market [57]. 4. Operation Strategy - **Single - side**: Adopt a bearish strategy when the price is high. - **Arbitrage**: Gradually take profit on previous arbitrage orders. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [8][58].