"十五五"开局之年，中国经济站在新旧动能转换的十字路口。一面是"新质生产力"的火焰熊熊燃烧，一 面是"供强需弱"的海水冰冷刺骨。出口数据强劲，为何企业信心却在走弱？内需要如何激活？中国经 济，如何从"独善其身"走向"共同成长"？ 更多精彩内容，敬请关注2月25日周三晚22:30 东方卫视《两说》节目，第一财经 2月28日周六晚22:00 播出。 两说 Business Insights 经济学家 香中数字经济研究中心 北京大学国家发展研究院院 中国人民银行货币政策委员会委员 02\25 22:30 东方卫视首播 02\28 22:00 第一财经播出 ...

详见：国家发展改革委产业经济与技术经济研究所研究员涂圣伟文章《当前扩大内需须在供需两侧协同发力》 2026年1月3日，2026"购在中国"暨新春消费季启动仪式在上海举行。"购在中国"系列活动聚焦商品消 费、服务消费、消费场景三大主题，在全国举办"乐购新春"、精品消费月、国际消费季等专题活动， 营造浓厚消费氛围，激发消费市场活力。图为当日市民、游客在上海一家传统食品销售商店内选购。 新华社记者 方喆/摄 （策划：侯亚景） 改革开放以来，我国供需关系历经复杂变化，经济政策也在供给侧和需求侧之间相机抉择，推动了经济总体不断 向前发展。20世纪90年代中后期前，我国一直是供给短缺型经济，总需求持续大于总供给，彼时调控的重点是管 理总需求、平抑通货膨胀、稳定市场物价。1998—2012年左右，受亚洲金融危机、国际金融危机相继冲击，内需 不足问题开始突显出来，总供给大于总需求成为经济运行的主要矛盾，相应的政策更多是保持经济平稳运行、扩 大国内需求。党的十八大以来，我国经济发展进入新常态，经济运行的主要矛盾从总需求不足转变为供给结构不 适应需求结构的变化，矛盾的主要方面转到供给侧，深化供给侧结构性改革相应成为宏观调控的主线 ...

第一，供强需弱矛盾的形成与长期以来公共资源配置模式和发展路径相关。过去很长一段时期，我国生 产能力相对滞后，地方政府在进行公共资源配置时偏向于扩大投资、提高生产能力，用于社会民生和居 民消费的比例相对偏低。这种发展模式在特定历史阶段推动了生产能力的快速提升，但由于内需增长未 能实现同步，进而形成供需缺口。加入世界贸易组织后，我国深度参与国际分工，融入国际大循环，形 成了市场和资源"两头在外"的发展格局，国内产能通过世界市场得以消化，供需实现了阶段性平衡。当 然，这种主要依托外需实现的平衡，也是一种脆弱的平衡。近年来，世界经济增长动能不足，外部环境 的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性上升。世界贸易组织预测，2026年全球货物贸易量增速为0.5%，大幅低 于历史平均水平。我国是全球第一货物贸易大国，市场和资源"两头在外"的国际大循环动能明显减弱， 外需空间的结构性收缩已经成为长期趋势，但内需增长短期内还难以全面替代或弥补外需收缩产生的缺 口，供需失衡从隐性转为显性。 来源：求是网 为什么会出现供强需弱？回答这个问题，需要结合这些年来我国经济发展实践，认识清楚驱动总供给和 总需求发展的内在机制和影响因素。从生产体系和供给能 ...

申银万国期货研究所 戴鸿绪 （从业编号F03153282 交易咨询号Z0023729） 评 论 及 策 略 生猪市场整体呈现供强需弱格局。主力合约LH2605收盘报11265元/吨，下跌255元/吨，跌幅 2.21%。现货方面，全国外三元生猪出栏均价为10.92元/公斤，较昨日下跌0.26元/公斤，各 地价格普遍偏弱调整。供需层面，重点养殖企业出栏量达21.93万头，环比上涨8.15%；屠宰 企业屠宰量9.88万头，环比大幅上调20.89%，显示供应压力集中释放。与此同时，养殖端亏 损持续，其中自繁自养头均亏损135.59元，外购仔猪模式亏损71.54元/头，行业整体承压。 短期来看，市场处于节后供应恢复、消费相对平淡的阶段，若需求端无明显提振，猪价或延 续弱势震荡走势。 | | | | | daihx@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 生猪（LH） | | | | | | 1月 | 3月 | 5月 | 7月 | 9月 | 11月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 13145 | 1 ...

研究报告 供强需弱格局延续，期价震荡寻方向 华龙期货投资咨询部 研究员：刘维新 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 节前一周，生猪期货盘面震荡偏弱运行，截至 2 月 13 日收盘， 生猪期货主力 LH2605 合约报 11500 元/吨，跌 0.22%，成交量 38318 手，持仓量 136660 手，日减仓 4468 手。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2026 年 2 月 24 日星期二 节前一周生猪价格持续走弱，周均价重心下移，截至 2 月 13 日，全国生猪出栏均价 11.58 元/公斤，较周初下跌 0.47 元/公斤， 跌幅 3.9%，受前期仔猪价格高企、市场承接力不足影响，叠加春 节假期临近，养殖端补栏意愿低迷，带动节前仔猪价格环比回落， 全国仔猪周均价 357.14 元/头，二元母猪市场交投清淡，均价 1429 元/头，后备养户补栏积极性偏低，受猪价下 ...

Core Viewpoint - Expanding domestic demand is essential for maintaining the sustainable and healthy development of China's economy, as highlighted by the 20th Central Committee's emphasis on addressing "insufficient effective demand" as a risk challenge [1] Group 1: Economic Dynamics - The dynamic balance between total supply and total demand is a prerequisite for the smooth operation of the socialist market economy, influencing overall output and price levels [2] - Historically, China's economic policies have shifted between supply-side and demand-side adjustments, reflecting changes in the supply-demand relationship [3] Group 2: Consumption and Investment - Consumption plays a foundational role in the national economy and is a key focus for expanding domestic demand, with current issues including low consumer spending and insufficient service consumption [5][6] - Investment dynamics show a weakening of investment momentum and a decline in the marginal return on capital, with private investment confidence notably low [5] Group 3: Structural Imbalances - The supply-demand imbalance is not only a matter of quantity but also reflects structural mismatches, with certain sectors experiencing oversupply while others face shortages [6] - The aging population and technological advancements are significant factors affecting supply-demand adjustments, with implications for long-term economic balance [12] Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To address the supply-demand imbalance, it is crucial to implement coordinated efforts between supply-side and demand-side policies, enhancing the adaptability and balance of supply and demand [14][15] - Promoting a virtuous interaction between consumption and investment is essential, with a focus on optimizing government investment structures and fostering private investment [15] Group 5: Domestic and International Circulation - Expanding domestic demand should not come at the expense of external demand; rather, it should enhance the connection between domestic and international markets [17] - A proactive open strategy is necessary to adapt to international changes, ensuring that China can effectively participate in global industrial cooperation and supply chain management [17]

Core Viewpoint - Expanding domestic demand is essential for maintaining the sustainable and healthy development of China's economy, with a focus on coordinating supply and demand sides to stimulate new demand and create new supply [2][14]. Group 1: Economic Dynamics - The dynamic balance between total supply and total demand is a prerequisite for smooth national economic circulation, influencing overall output and price levels [2]. - Historically, China's economy transitioned from a supply shortage to a demand shortage, with recent shifts indicating a structural mismatch between supply and demand [3]. Group 2: Consumption and Investment - Consumption plays a foundational role in the national economy, with current issues reflecting a persistent gap between effective demand and potential output, particularly in service consumption [5][6]. - Investment dynamics show a weakening of investment momentum and a decline in the marginal return on capital, with private investment confidence notably low [5]. Group 3: Structural Imbalances - The supply-demand imbalance is not merely a quantitative issue but also a structural mismatch, with traditional supply redundancy coexisting with a shortage of quality supply [6]. - Specific sectors, such as elderly care and childcare, exhibit significant gaps between supply and demand, highlighting the need for better alignment [6][10]. Group 4: Causes of Supply-Demand Imbalance - The supply-demand imbalance is linked to historical public resource allocation patterns that favored production capacity over consumer needs, leading to a persistent gap [10]. - The transition of China's economic development stage impacts the balance of supply and demand, with diminishing returns on traditional growth factors affecting consumer income and spending [11]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations - To address the supply-demand imbalance, it is crucial to implement coordinated efforts between supply-side and demand-side policies, enhancing the adaptability and balance of supply and demand [15][17]. - Promoting a virtuous interaction between consumption and investment is essential, with a focus on optimizing government investment structures and enhancing consumer spending [16]. Group 6: Domestic and International Circulation - Strengthening domestic demand does not imply neglecting external demand; rather, it aims to better connect domestic and international markets, leveraging China's large market size and production capacity [18].

Key Points - The central bank acknowledges a resilient global economy but highlights challenges such as supply-demand imbalances [2][8] - The report indicates that exports will likely remain a crucial support for China's economy in 2026 [2][10] - The midstream manufacturing sector is expected to benefit the most from exports, with a clearer outlook for the next three to six months [2][11] Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [14][18] - The report introduces the goal of guiding reasonable growth in financial totals and balanced credit allocation [14][15] - The central bank plans to utilize various policy tools flexibly and efficiently, including interest rate adjustments [14][15] Structural Policy Changes - The report prioritizes expanding domestic demand over technological innovation in structural monetary policy [18][19] - There is an expectation for new policies related to domestic demand to be introduced, particularly in the context of financial support for key sectors [18][19] Exchange Rate Management - The central bank aims to enhance the exchange rate's role as a stabilizer for the macroeconomy and international balance of payments [19] - The report indicates that a more flexible and two-way floating exchange rate may become the norm, with risks associated with betting on a one-sided exchange rate [19][19]

Core Viewpoint - The polyethylene (PE) futures market has experienced a cooling sentiment, with prices under pressure and a weekly decline of 2.88%, closing at 6812 points, influenced by weakening crude oil prices and a supply-demand imbalance as the Chinese New Year approaches [5][23]. Supply Side - The supply side has seen a slight decrease in the number of shutdowns, with a total of approximately 370,000 tons of production capacity affected by maintenance. The operating rate for the PE industry is at 85.91%, an increase of 0.56% week-on-week, while weekly production reached 712,400 tons, up by 0.64% [8][26]. - China remains a net importer of PE, with a decrease in foreign offers and low purchasing intentions from importers. The cumulative PE export volume is 503,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9,510 tons, while imports have decreased to 5,446,300 tons, down by 237,700 tons year-on-year [10][28]. Demand Side - Demand is entering a seasonal lull as the Chinese New Year approaches, with downstream factories shutting down, leading to a decrease in overall operating rates to 33.73%, down by 4.03% [11][29]. - In the agricultural film sector, the operating rate is at 30.18%, down by 4.38%, while the PE packaging film sector is at 38.82%, down by 3.25%. The PE pipe sector has an operating rate of 23.67%, down by 4.16% [13][31]. Inventory - Domestic PE inventory has shown a significant accumulation in production enterprises, with a total inventory of 379,700 tons, an increase of 56,700 tons week-on-week. Trade inventories have slightly decreased to 23,200 tons [14][32]. Cost Side - The cost side remains uncertain due to geopolitical factors affecting crude oil prices. The upcoming negotiations between the U.S. and Iran may influence oil prices, but current trends show limited support for PE costs. The volatility in propylene and methanol futures prices has also decreased [16][34]. Summary - In the short term, the PE market is expected to lean towards a supply strong and demand weak scenario, with high production rates and accumulating inventories. The market sentiment is cautious due to the upcoming holiday and potential geopolitical risks, suggesting a recommendation for reduced positions ahead of the holiday [19][37].

【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 6 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力低开低走，日内震荡偏弱。120 分钟布林带走紧口 喇叭，短线震荡信号，盘中短线压力关注布林带中轨附近，支撑关注布林带下轨 附近。成交量较昨日减 47834 手，持仓量较昨日增 7849 手；日内最高 1205，最 低 1184，收盘 1190，（较昨结算价）跌 22 元/吨，跌幅 1.82%。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 需求方面，纯碱企业出货量 73.74 万吨，环比下降 2.98%；纯碱整体出货率 为 95.23%，环比-1.82%。下游以低价刚需补库为主，采购积极性不佳。 利润方面，据隆众资讯统计，联碱法理论利润（双吨）为-29 元/吨，环比 下降 2.5 元/吨。氨碱法理论利润-88.8 元/吨，环比下降 0.45 元/吨。周内原料 端矿盐价格稳定，动力煤价格震荡上移，成本略有增加。 三、主要逻辑总结 纯碱的核心矛盾仍是供强需弱导致的库存持续累积，行业供需错配格局未改 善。持续增加的库存施压盘面，虽短期受反内卷情绪以及 ...