【冠通期货研究报告】 芳烃日报：淡季存需求压制 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 8 日 苯乙烯根据行业往期规律来看，1-3 月属于需求淡季，季节性累库的可能性 较大。 【宏观面分析】 据华尔街日报，知情人士透露，特朗普及其顾问正在筹划一项规模庞大的计 划，拟在未来多年内主导委内瑞拉石油产业。特朗普已向助手表示，他认为这一 行动有助于将油价压低至其偏好的每桶 50 美元水平。 央行：2026 年 1 月 8 日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价 位中标方式开展 11000 亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为 3 个月（90 天）。 【期现行情分析】 纯苯日内小幅震荡，上方压力依旧较大，整体仍然呈现供强需弱的状态，目 前仍然弱势对待。 苯乙烯小幅震荡，上方关注周线级别 40 日均线附近压力，一季度处于季淡 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 【基本面分析】 纯苯方面：截至 12 月 29 日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量 30 万吨，较 上期库存 27.3 万吨上升 2.7 万吨，环比增加 9.89%；较去年同期库存 19.22 万 吨累库 10.78 万吨 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 芳烃日报：淡季存需求压制 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 6 日 【基本面分析】 纯苯方面：截至 12 月 29 日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量 30 万吨，较 上期库存 27.3 万吨上升 2.7 万吨，环比增加 9.89%；较去年同期库存 19.22 万 吨累库 10.78 万吨，同比上升 56.09%。12 月 22 日-12 月 28 日，不完全统计到 货约 3.95 万吨，提货约 1.25 万吨。周期内，所统计库区中，3 个库区上升，4 个库区持稳。 苯乙烯方面：截至 2026 年 1 月 5 日，江苏苯乙烯港口样本库存总量：13.23 万吨，较上周期减 0.65 万吨，幅度-4.68%。商品量库存在 7.73 万吨，较上周期 减 0.6 万吨，幅度-7.20%。 纯苯日内小幅震荡，上方压力依旧较大，整体仍然呈现供强需弱的状态，目 前仍然弱势对待。 苯乙烯小幅震荡，上方关注周线级别 40 日均线附近压力，明年一季度处于 季淡季需求，产业适当参与套保。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 苯乙烯根据行业往期规律来看，1-3 月 ...

消息面 2025年12月26日沪铅期货库存录得27095.00吨，较上一交易日减少780.00吨。 1月2日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)：铅注册仓单162500吨。注销仓单76825吨，减少6025吨。铅库存 239325吨，减少2600吨。 2025年12月30日讯：西南地区一家中型再生铅冶炼企业表示，计划在1月将产量下调20%-30%。此举主 要是由于原料供应持续紧张，到厂原料量不断减少。企业为应对原料端压力，稳定生产节奏，故而采取 减产措施。 机构观点 国泰君安期货： 2026年铅市总体呈现供强需弱格局，价格以区间震荡为主。供应方面，矿端及废电池回收量小幅提升， 精炼铅产量继续增长；需求方面，以旧换新政策对替换消费形成一定托底，两轮电动车维持正增，储能 与铅碳电池具备潜在增量，但铅酸蓄电池出口受高沪伦比值、贸易摩擦及中东关税影响或出现下滑。整 体判断国内小幅过剩，沪铅运行区间16000–18000元/吨。季节性上，年初消费小阳春后价格承压，年中 电池厂补库叠加废电池供应有限，可能形成阶段性供需缺口，抬升价格。 东证期货： 近期再生铅开工减产有所增多，主要是受原料供应问题影响，同时华东和华北雾霾持续，环保管 ...

2025年纯碱行业延续熊市格局，"高供应、高库存、低估值"特征明显。2026年纯碱行业仍处在产能扩张 周期，需求难有增量，基本面或延续供强需弱格局。在高库存压力下，2026年纯碱价格重心或小幅下 移，行业亏损进一步加剧。预计2026年纯碱价格中枢为1100~1200元／吨，现货价格低点或降至1050元 ／吨附近。建议上游企业关注宏观利好和阶段性减产带来的卖出套保机会。 供应压力仍存 2021—2023年纯碱行业景气度高，行业利润一度升至2000元／吨。高利润驱动开工率提升和新产能投 放，行业快速进入熊市周期。2025年国内纯碱新增产能590万吨，产能增速约为15%，产能增速明显高 于2024年。2023—2025年国内纯碱新增产能近1400万吨，累计增幅约40%。新产能释放带动国内纯碱产 量大幅增加。国家统计局数据显示，2025年1—11月，国内纯碱产量同比增加139万吨，至3625万吨，增 幅为4.0%。 2026年国内纯碱产能投放计划明显减少，主要包括金山湖北潜江的150万吨／年联碱产能和湖南雪天盐 碱新材料的100万吨／年联碱产能。根据百川资讯统计，2026年新项目或于下半年甚至年底才能投产， 对年内供 ...

长江期货聚烯烃周报 聚烯烃：去库力度不足，上行压力较大 01 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员： 张 英 执业编号:F03105021 投资咨询号:Z0021335 2025-12-29 01 核心观点总结 重点关注：下游需求情况、俄乌谈判、委内瑞拉局势、原油价格波动 资料来源：iFIND，隆众资讯，长江期货 1 市场变化：12月26日塑料主力合约收盘价6465元/吨，环比+2.29%。LDPE均价为8466.67元/吨，环比-0.97%，HDPE均价 为6800元/吨，环比-3.03%，华南地区LLDPE（7042）均价为6480.56元/吨，环比-1.88%。LLDPE华南基差收于15.56元/吨， 环比+94.54%，1-5月差-76元/吨（-28）。聚丙烯主力合约收盘价6292元/吨，较上周末+79元/吨，环比+1.27%。生意社聚 丙烯现货价报收6153.33元/吨（-1.60%）。PP基差收-139元/吨（-179），1-5月差-114元/吨（-33）。 2 基本面变化：1、供应端：本周中国聚乙烯生产开工率82.64% ...

文 ： 华创证券首席经济学家 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 4、央行删掉了"防范资金空转"的表述，这意味着一旦国内经济有较大下行压力，央行货币政策的掣肘相对 较小，可随时灵活加码。 5、总而言之，四季度例会没有更改我们对于后续贷款增速和M2增速回落的判断，宏观流动性最宽松的时 间段可能已经过去，这意味着估值进一步抬升存在难度，资本市场要更关注基本面。 6、对于权益资产而言，当下供需均衡仍在改善的路径上，且股债比较指标（股债夏普比率差值）也显示股 票更具配置优势。我们战略看多股票的观点不变。但我们提示股票拔估值的摩擦力会越来越大，要更关注 基本面和安全边际。 联系人： 文若愚（微信 LRsuperdope） 事项 2025年12月24日，中国人民银行发布四季度货币政策委员会例会，我们学习心得如下。 核心观点 1、央行"供强需弱"的表述与前期中央经济工作会议的表述一脉相承。后续央行或限制用于生产侧的贷款。 2、需求层面，央行重提"优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量"的表述，参照前期央行专栏 《盘活存量资金 提 高资金使用效率》 ，这可能意味着短期房地产和地方融资平台的信贷增长或难以显著改善，相反高科技 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 货币政策重点在于调结构 ——2025 年四季度货币政策委员会例会学习心得 事 项 2025 年 12 月 24 日，中国人民银行发布四季度货币政策委员会例会，我们学习 心得如下。 4、央行删掉了"防范资金空转"的表述，这意味着一旦国内经济有较大下行 压力，央行货币政策的掣肘相对较小，可随时灵活加码。 5、总而言之，四季度例会没有更改我们对于后续贷款增速和 M2 增速回落的 判断，宏观流动性最宽松的时间段可能已经过去，这意味着估值进一步抬升存 在难度，资本市场要更关注基本面。 6、对于权益资产而言，当下供需均衡仍在改善的路径上，且股债比较指标（股 债夏普比率差值）也显示股票更具配置优势。我们战略看多股票的观点不变。 但我们提示股票拔估值的摩擦力会越来越大，要更关注基本面和安全边际。 7、对于债市而言，十年期国债收益率突破前低需要货币政策的超预期的非常 规宽松，四季度货政例会看不到这一信号。后续只要经济循环和资本市场风险 偏好在持续改善，那么 2%以下的十年期国债其上行压力仍存。 风险提示： 货币政策超预期 宏观快评 2025 年 12 月 25 日 核心观点 1、 ...

镍&不锈钢 2 0 2 5 / 1 2 / 1 6 急急急急 | 作者：陈琳萱 | 研究助理：王若颜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号：F03108575 | 从业资格证号：F03134422 | | 交易咨询证号：Z0021508 | 联系方式：wangruoyan@zjtfqh.com | | 邮箱：chenlinxuan@zjtfqh.com | 审核：李文涛 | | 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 | 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 | 观点小结 | 镍 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 震荡 | 近期受基本面过剩预期强化影响，沪镍盘面快速下探，最低触及111700元/吨，刷新年内低点。现货端跟跌压力同步加大，精炼镍短期减产未改过 剩格局，叠加硫酸镍价格回落、镍板企业转产驱动不足，纯镍12月产量预计环比提升。今年镍价表现在有色金属中尤为疲软，一方面传统领域消 | | | | 费难以带来提振，另一方面镍产能仍有投放预期，中长期来看，"供强需弱"的矛盾逐步累积，镍价重心将进一步下移。 | | 镍矿价格 | 中性 | 截至12月12日，菲 ...

整体而言，五矿期货表示，国内供强需弱的现实下，国内需求偏差，难以扭转供给过剩的格局，基本面 较差，短期情绪偏强带动反弹，中期在行业实质性大幅减产前仍然以逢高空配的思路为主。 12月22日，国内期市能化板块有涨有跌。其中，PVC期货主力合约震荡走低1.71%，报收于4591.00元/ 吨。 需求端，西南期货分析称，本周国内下游制品企业开工下降，主要受硬制品开工下降影响；成本利润 端，烧碱价格下行，液氯周均上行，氯碱利润整体下降。 现货方面，12月22日，临沂地区PVC行情延续弱势，经销商报盘普遍低报出货为主，市场气氛一般，实 际成交低迷。目前电石法5型主流报价在4320-4360元/吨区间。 供应端，华联期货指出，上周开工率环比延续走低，主要是部分装置降负荷影响，但总体供应仍在高 位。明年几乎没有新增产能，供应扩张进入尾声。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The polyolefin price trend was divided this week. The continuous decline in the PE agricultural film operating rate led the L main contract to seek the bottom unilaterally. The PP operating rate was decent, and the slight increase in the BOPP operating rate supported the PP main contract price. Overall, the fundamental situation remained one of strong supply and weak demand, and there was significant upward pressure on polyolefins as a whole. It is expected that the PE main contract will fluctuate weakly, with attention on the 6300 support level. The PP main contract will fluctuate within a range, with attention on the 6200 support level. The LP spread is expected to narrow [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic - **Weekly Market Review**: On December 19, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6320 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.56%. The average price of LDPE was 8550 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 1.54%. The average price of HDPE was 7012.5 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.60%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6605 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.42%. The LLDPE South China basis was 285 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.75%. The 1 - 5 month spread was -48 yuan/ton (-38) [12]. - **Key Data Tracking - Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on December 19 was -48 yuan/ton (-38), the 5 - 9 month spread was -47 yuan/ton (-14), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 95 yuan/ton (52) [18]. - **Key Data Tracking - Spot Price**: The spot prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of decline [20][21]. - **Key Data Tracking - Cost**: WTI crude oil was reported at 56.54 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.99 US dollars per barrel from the previous week. Brent crude oil was reported at 60.12 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 1.10 US dollars per barrel from the previous week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1070 yuan/ton (-30) [23]. - **Key Data Tracking - Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was -279 yuan/ton, an increase of 202 yuan/ton from the previous week. The profit of coal - based PE was -13 yuan/ton, an increase of 163 yuan/ton from the previous week [29]. - **Key Data Tracking - Supply**: This week, the operating rate of polyethylene production in China was 83.86%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly polyethylene output was 67.96 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29%. The maintenance loss this week was 9.86 tons, an increase of 0.87 tons from the previous week [32]. - **Key Data Tracking - 2025 Commissioning Plan**: A total of 543 tons of new polyethylene production capacity was planned to be put into operation in 2025, with some already commissioned and some scheduled for December 2025 [35]. - **Key Data Tracking - Maintenance Statistics**: Many polyethylene production enterprises had equipment under maintenance, with uncertain restart times for most [37]. - **Key Data Tracking - Demand**: This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural films was 45.18%, a decrease of 1.22% from the previous week. The operating rate of PE packaging films was 48.96%, a decrease of 0.63% from the previous weekend. The operating rate of PE pipes was 31.00%, unchanged from the previous weekend [39]. - **Key Data Tracking - Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear films was the highest, accounting for 37.3%, with a difference of 1.8% from the annual average level. The difference between the low - pressure film and the annual average data was significant, currently accounting for 8.6%, with a difference of 1.8% from the annual average level [42]. - **Key Data Tracking - Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 46.87 tons, an increase of 1.22 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 2.67% [45]. - **Key Data Tracking - Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11332 lots, unchanged from the previous week [48]. PP - **Weekly Market Review**: On December 19, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6213 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a week - on - week decrease of 0.83% [52]. - **Key Data Tracking - Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of various PP products showed different degrees of decline [54][56]. - **Key Data Tracking - Basis**: On December 19, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi was 6253.33 yuan/ton (-0%). The PP basis was 40 yuan/ton (-84), and the 1 - 5 month spread was -81 yuan/ton (-42) [58]. - **Key Data Tracking - Month Spread**: The 1 - 5 month spread on December 19 was -81 yuan/ton (-42), the 5 - 9 month spread was -27 yuan/ton (16), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 108 yuan/ton (26) [63]. - **Key Data Tracking - Cost**: The cost situation was the same as that of plastic, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices decreasing and anthracite price at the Yangtze River port also decreasing [68]. - **Key Data Tracking - Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was -522.08 yuan/ton, an increase of 82.14 yuan/ton from the previous weekend. The profit of coal - based PP was -576.20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.40 yuan/ton from the previous weekend [73]. - **Key Data Tracking - Supply**: This week, the operating rate of PP petrochemical enterprises in China was 79.40%, an increase of 1.15 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 81.82 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.26%. The weekly output of PP powder was 6.66 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.72% [75]. - **Key Data Tracking - Maintenance Statistics**: Many PP production enterprises had equipment under maintenance, with uncertain restart times for most [78]. - **Key Data Tracking - Demand**: This week, the average downstream operating rate was 53.80% (-0.19). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 44.00% (-0.06%), the operating rate of BOPP was 63.24% (+0.31%), the operating rate of injection molding was 58.50% (-0.05%), and the operating rate of pipes was 42.07% (-0.23%) [80]. - **Key Data Tracking - Import and Export Profit**: This week, the import profit of polypropylene was -318.03 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 4.63 US dollars per ton compared with the previous week. The export profit was -1.18 US dollars per ton, an increase of 1.26 US dollars per ton compared with the previous week [86]. - **Key Data Tracking - Inventory**: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 53.78 tons (+0.13%); the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina decreased by 1.73% week - on - week; the inventory of traders decreased by 4.34% week - on - week; and the port inventory decreased by 1.03% week - on - week. The finished product inventory of large - scale plastic weaving enterprises was 1012.13 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.59%. The raw material inventory of BOPP was 10.12 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.91% [89][95]. - **Key Data Tracking - Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 10934 lots, a decrease of 4813 lots from the previous week [99].