鸡蛋期货主力涨超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 11月20日盘中，鸡蛋期货主力合约怕盘面表现偏强，最高上探至3222.00元。截止发稿，鸡蛋主力合约 报3219.00元，涨幅1.35%。 机构 核心观点 建信期货 鸡蛋短期以低位震荡对待 华联期货 鸡蛋2601压力位参考3300~3400 西南期货 鸡蛋考虑空单逐步止盈 建信期货：鸡蛋短期以低位震荡对待 基本面来看，10月末蛋鸡存栏量在今年首次出现环比下降，说明前期极差的养殖利润已经逐步反馈至供 应端，另外观察近四个月的补栏量同比数据也可以发现，在中期蛋鸡存栏或有持续小幅下行的预期，未 来关注蛋价低迷期及饲料成本的变化，若四季度低迷时间越长，明年一季度末及二季度出现反转的概率 及弹性相对就会越大一些。操作上，短期以低位震荡对待，现货低价或仍将持续一段时间，远月多单机 会可以逢低关注，但近期或仍存反复，近远月价差反套为宜。 华联期货：鸡蛋2601压力位参考3300~3400 市场延续"供强需弱"格局。供应端，10月在产蛋鸡存栏量为13.59亿只，同比仍增长5.59%，虽环比微降 0.66%，但整体处于历史高位；淘汰鸡平均出栏日龄达494天，显示产能 ...

Core Insights - The average price of external three yuan live pigs in China increased by 0.02 yuan/kg to 11.59 yuan/kg on November 18, 2025, while the average price of piglets rose by 0.03 yuan/kg to 19.11 yuan/kg [1][2] - The market sentiment is mixed, with some regions experiencing slight price adjustments, but overall, the market remains in a "strong supply, weak demand" situation [2] Price Trends - The average price of external three yuan live pigs across various regions shows slight increases, with notable prices including: - Heilongjiang: 11.71 yuan/kg - Guangdong: 12.21 yuan/kg - Shanghai: 11.95 yuan/kg [1] - The average price of piglets also varies by region, with the highest price in Guangdong at 20.28 yuan/kg [1] Market Dynamics - The recent drop in temperatures has led to increased optimism among farmers, with some engaging in limited curing activities in southern regions [2] - Despite the positive sentiment, overall consumption remains weak, impacting the sustainability of price increases [2] - The risk of disease in pig herds is rising with the temperature drop, which may lead to earlier market exits by farmers for disease control [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for China to address the structural imbalance in its economy, particularly focusing on the consumption shortfall, to maintain sustainable economic growth and modernization [3][4][5]. Economic Structure and Growth - China's economic growth has recently exhibited a "strong supply, weak demand" characteristic, where insufficient demand, especially in final consumption, has become a key constraint on economic growth [4][6]. - The article highlights that the structural imbalance in the economy is not only due to short-term factors but also has deeper systemic roots related to the allocation of public resources [4][7]. Consumption Shortfall - The consumption shortfall is identified as a critical issue, with the need to address it from a long-term perspective rather than merely responding to its immediate effects [4][10]. - The article suggests that the consumption rate in China is significantly lower than that of other G20 countries, indicating a structural weakness in consumer spending [24][33]. Policy Recommendations - The article proposes several policy recommendations for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, including optimizing public resource allocation to enhance household income and stimulate final consumption [14][15]. - It emphasizes the importance of reforming the household registration and land systems to support urban-rural integration and improve consumption capacity [14][15]. Supply-Side Improvements - The article notes that while supply-side capabilities have improved significantly, the persistent weak demand highlights the need for a balanced approach to economic growth [17][19]. - It points out that the recent advancements in industrial technology and productivity must be matched by an increase in domestic consumption to fully realize economic potential [19][20]. Structural Challenges - The article outlines five interconnected contradictions within the demand structure, including the relationship between external and internal demand, and the disparity between government and household consumption [6][39]. - It stresses that the service consumption sector is particularly weak, which further exacerbates the overall consumption shortfall [37][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoint of the Report - The bottom of the current urea price may gradually become clear. Although urea has rebounded recently, the strength is limited, and the valuation is still relatively low, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The new round of export quotas will alleviate the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to some extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price. Low prices may stimulate storage enterprises to enter the market. It is recommended to take profit on sold options and pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium and long term [3][29] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - From late October to now, the urea price has rebounded from the bottom, which is essentially a rebound and repair under low valuation. The new round of export quotas has boosted market sentiment, and the spot market's low - price transactions have improved. However, domestic supply pressure still suppresses the bullish sentiment, so the rebound strength is limited [3][8][29] 2. Basis and Spread - After the previous continuous decline in urea prices, the spot sentiment has improved, especially after the issuance of export quotas, which has promoted a slight strengthening of the basis. On October 20, the basis in Shandong was - 50 yuan/ton, and on November 11, it was - 30 yuan/ton. The 01 - 05 spread fluctuated. On October 20, the UR01 - 05 spread was - 75 yuan/ton, and on November 11, it was - 77 yuan/ton [9] 3. Supply - Side Analysis 3.1 Supply - The recent rebound in urea prices has slightly improved upstream profits, but they are still at a poor level, lower than the previous two years. Urea prices are still weak compared to coal prices. The upstream urea start - up has slightly increased. As of the week of November 6, the weekly urea start - up rate in China was 83.55%, a month - on - month increase of 2.61 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.92 percentage points. The gas - head start - up rate was 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 2.29 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.09 percentage points. The weekly coal - head urea output was 1130000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 140000 tons. The estimated daily output is expected to remain at a high level of about 190000 - 200000 tons next week [11] 3.2 Inventory - Due to the continuous release of high supply, domestic urea inventory has always been at a high level in the past five years. Since June, there has been an obvious phenomenon of export container gathering at ports, which has alleviated the domestic supply - demand pressure to some extent. After the new round of export quotas, there may be another round of container gathering. As of the week of November 6, the weekly enterprise inventory of urea in China was 1342000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 170000 tons. The weekly port inventory was 205000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 66000 tons. The new round of export quotas and winter storage demand may reduce the inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter [16] 4. Demand - Side Analysis 4.1 Export - Since June, domestic urea exports have begun to relax, and the export volume has increased significantly. The new round of export quota is about 600000 tons, which will help alleviate the current domestic supply pressure. Even if the urea price drops again, it will probably stimulate the storage demand of enterprises, and there is support at the previous low price [20][22] 4.2 Domestic - The fourth quarter is the off - season for domestic demand, and the relatively concentrated demand is mainly winter storage demand. The current pattern of strong supply and weak demand may make storage enterprises relatively cautious. However, the supply - demand pressure has been reflected in the current urea price, and the price is at a low level. It is a good choice for storage enterprises to gradually build inventories at the current price. As of November 6, the weekly inventory of compound fertilizers was 630000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80000 tons. The weekly output was 1070000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 73000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 66000 tons. The weekly start - up rate of melamine was 52.23%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.27 percentage points [23] 5. Summary and Outlook - The market review is consistent with the previous content. The price bottom of urea may gradually become clear. It is recommended to take profit on sold options and pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium and long term [29][30]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the context of strong supply and weak demand, the log futures market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend. The supply is expected to increase this week, and the spot price is declining, putting pressure on the market. However, the current futures price is relatively low, and the significant inversion between domestic and foreign prices provides some support for import costs, limiting the downside space of the futures price [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On November 10, the prices of log futures contracts 2511, 2601, 2603, and 2605 were 740.0, 782.5, 795.0, and 813.0 respectively, with price changes of -2.0, 4.0, 2.5, and 7.5 and corresponding percentage changes of -0.27%, 0.51%, 0.32%, and 0.93% compared to November 7 [1] - The 11 - 01 and 11 - 03 spreads were -42.5 and -55.0 respectively, down 6.0 and 4.5 from November 7 [1] - The 11 - contract and 01 - contract basis were 10.0 and -32.5 respectively, with changes of 2.0 and -4.0 from November 7 [1] - Among the spot prices, the prices of most types of logs in ports remained unchanged, except for the 4A medium - radiation pine in Taicang Port, which decreased by 10 to 760, a decline of 1.30% [1] - The CFR prices of 4 - meter medium A radiation pine and 11.8 - meter spruce in the outer market remained unchanged at 116 dollars/JAS cubic meter and 126 euros/JAS cubic meter respectively [1] Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On November 10, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.120, with no change from November 9. The import theoretical cost, calculated with a 15% over - length, was 811.79 yuan, down 0.43 yuan from November 9 [1] Supply: Monthly - In October, the port shipment volume from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 201.3 million cubic meters, an increase of 24.7 million cubic meters (13.99%) from September. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 54, an increase of 8 (17.39%) from September [1] Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of November 7, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs was 293 million cubic meters, an increase of 5 million cubic meters (1.74%) from October 31. The inventories in China, Shandong, and Jiangsu were 191.50, 82.45, and 82.26 million cubic meters respectively, with changes of 3.2, 0.2, and 0.24% compared to October 31 [1][2] Demand - As of November 7, the daily average outbound volume of logs was 6.63 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.35 million cubic meters (6%) from October 31. The daily average outbound volumes in China, Shandong, and Jiangsu were 6.63, 3.79, and 2.28 million cubic meters respectively, with changes of 0.35 (6%), 0.60 (19%), and - 0.15 (-6%) compared to October 31 [2] Forecast of Arrival - From November 10 - 16, 2025, the number of expected arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China was 12, a decrease of 4 (25%) from last week. The total arrival volume was about 39.5 million cubic meters, a decrease of 13.6 million cubic meters (26%) from last week [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Demand side: Last week, the loss - making area of steel mills further expanded, blast furnace maintenance increased, and hot metal production decreased month - on - month, reaching the level of the same period last year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, a month - on - month increase of 1.38 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.84 percentage points. The daily average hot metal production was 2.14 million tons less than last week, a month - on - month decrease, and 0.16 million tons more than last year, a year - on - year increase [1][4][5]. - Supply side: Last week, overseas shipments decreased month - on - month, but the arrival volume increased significantly, and the supply remained strong. The total global iron ore shipments were 32.138 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.745 million tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports nationwide was 156.2413 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.512 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3555 million tons, an increase of 0.0433 million tons [1][5]. - Overall: With strong supply and weak demand, the iron ore is expected to show a weak trend [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3034 | - 72 | - 2.32 | 5791624 | 2824366 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3245 | - 63 | - 1.90 | 2193217 | 1365348 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 760.5 | - 39.5 | - 4.94 | 1655900 | 537495 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1270.0 | - 16.0 | - 1.24 | 5683778 | 984216 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1756.5 | - 20.5 | - 1.15 | 108828 | 49120 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Futures market: Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated and declined. Due to continuous contraction of demand and weakened procurement by steel mills, prices were under downward pressure. - Spot market: The quotation of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 773 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the price of Super Special powder was 673 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 100 yuan/ton [4]. 3.3 Industry News - Hebei: Many places in Hebei lifted the emergency response to heavy pollution weather on November 9th as the meteorological conditions improved and the pollutant diffusion ability increased significantly [9]. - China's debt policy: During the 15th Five - Year Plan period, China will further implement a package of debt resolution plans, do a good job in the replacement of local government's existing implicit debts, and establish a unified long - term regulatory system for local government debts [9]. - Sino - US trade: The US Treasury Secretary said that the Sino - US trade agreement might be signed as early as this week. China is willing to work with the US to implement the important consensus of the two heads of state and promote the healthy, stable, and sustainable development of Sino - US relations [9]. - Real estate bond financing: In October 2025, the total bond financing of the real estate industry was 51.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 76.9% due to the low base in the same period last year [9]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report includes 37 charts showing various data such as the futures and spot trends of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore; the basis trends; steel mill profits; steel production and inventory; blast furnace operating rates; and iron ore shipment and arrival volumes [7][10][12] etc.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the domestic urea market showed a "first decline then rise" trend, affected by weather, supply - demand, and policy. Currently, the urea price is relatively low, and with the expected stabilization of coal prices, the downside space is limited. However, the supply will remain at a high level year - on - year, the demand is in the off - season, and the "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern persists. In the fourth quarter, the urea market will face continuous supply pressure, lack strong demand drivers, and is likely to fluctuate at a low level [2][26] Group 3: Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - In mid - and early - October, after the National Day holiday, continuous rainfall delayed agricultural activities, weakening terminal purchasing willingness and increasing enterprise inventories. With the weakening of export support, prices declined. In mid - and late - October, prices reached a low of 1460 - 1470 yuan/ton, then demand increased, and positive policy signals boosted confidence, leading to price recovery. As of October 31, the Shandong Linyi market price was 1590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, and the urea 2601 contract closed at 1625 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 2.69% [6] Agricultural需求季节性推迟 - In October, agricultural urea demand was "delayed" due to continuous rainfall, which postponed corn harvest and wheat sowing, delaying fertilizer demand. Farmers adopted a "buy - as - you - use" strategy, increasing supply - demand imbalance. In the compound fertilizer sector, production and capacity utilization decreased in October, with a production of 362.87 million tons, a 22.16% month - on - month decline, and an average capacity utilization of 28.18%, down 8.02% month - on - month and 1.94% year - on - year. In September, urea exports were strong, with 137.12 million tons, but exports may decline in October [10][11][12] Supply高位运行 - In October, China's urea production was 588.19 million tons, an increase of 13.42 million tons from the previous month and a decrease of 0.71 million tons from the same period last year. There were new device overhauls and new capacity resumptions, with a slight reduction in overhaul losses, leading to production growth [17] Factory库存压力较大 - In October, domestic urea factory inventories first rose and then fell. In mid - and early - October, rainfall reduced demand and increased inventories. In mid - and late - October, inventories decreased slightly but remained high. At the end of October, factory inventories were 155.43 million tons, a 33.82% month - on - month and 30.30% year - on - year increase. Port inventories decreased significantly, ending at 21 million tons, a 57.69% month - on - month and 4.11% year - on - year decrease [19][20] 后市展望 - In terms of cost, coal prices are expected to stabilize, and cost support for urea prices may emerge. In terms of supply - demand, gas - based urea enterprises will enter the overhaul period in November, but coal - based production will remain high, and supply pressure persists. In November, agricultural demand enters the off - season, with demand mainly supported by reserves. Overall, the "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern remains, and the market is likely to fluctuate at a low level in the fourth quarter [26]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the pig and egg industries is cautiously bearish [3][5] Core Views - The supply-demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the pig industry is difficult to change, and the long-term supply pressure is obvious, mainly due to the superposition of consumption decline and supply increase after the Spring Festival; in the egg industry, although the存栏 of laying hens is gradually declining, the supply-demand pattern of oversupply has not changed in the off-season of egg consumption [2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pig 2601 contract yesterday was 11,735 yuan/ton, a change of -80.00 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.68%; Spot: The price of ternary live pigs in Henan was 12.21 yuan/kg, a change of -0.32 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 12.49 yuan/kg, a change of -0.14 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 11.84 yuan/kg, a change of -0.16 yuan/kg. The national average wholesale price of pork in agricultural product markets was 17.98 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.0% from last Friday; beef was 66.30 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.1%; mutton was 63.27 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.7%; eggs were 7.29 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.0%; white-striped chickens were 17.61 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.8% [1] Market Analysis - Next week, the group's pig slaughter is expected to increase. The national inventory of pigs over 5 months old decreased by 0.1% month-on-month and narrowed by 2.4% year-on-year; the number of newborn piglets increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 6.6% year-on-year, with large-scale farms increasing by 1.8% month-on-month and 11% year-on-year. The second-round fattened pigs entering the market this month are also expected to be slaughtered at the end of the year, and the consumption side may not be able to absorb the increased supply, so the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2512 contract yesterday was 3,158 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of +12.00 yuan from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.38%; Spot: The egg price in Liaoning was 2.69 yuan/jin, a change of -0.20 from the previous trading day; in Shandong, it was 2.85 yuan/jin, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 2.69 yuan/jin, a change of -0.04. On November 3, 2025, the national production link inventory was 1.15 days, an increase of 0.09 days from yesterday, an increase of 8.49%; the circulation link inventory was 1.29 days, an increase of 0.05 days, an increase of 4.03% [3] Market Analysis - In the early part of this month, there was a demand for restocking in supermarkets and e-commerce platforms during the "Double Eleven", and the approaching "Double Twelve" at the end of the month also boosted egg demand, but in the off-season of consumption, the e-commerce marketing activities had limited impact on demand, and the overall demand was still insufficient. Although the存栏 of laying hens is gradually declining, the supply-demand pattern of oversupply has not changed [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (Maintain) [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 914 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.01%, and net profit attributable to the parent company at 39.09 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 281.30% [1] - The subsidiary, Kubuchi Animal Husbandry, is gradually starting production, which is expected to enhance profitability [1] - The company is expanding its community group buying and supermarket channels, which is anticipated to further boost sales [2] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company forecasts net profit attributable to the parent company to be 77 million yuan, 105 million yuan, and 136 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.37, 0.50, and 0.65 yuan per share [1][5] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 27.8, 20.4, and 15.8 times respectively [1][5] - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 1.4 billion yuan in 2025 to 1.8 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [5][7] Market Conditions - The domestic dairy industry is currently characterized by a "strong supply, weak demand" situation, which is expected to continue affecting raw milk prices [3] - The company is actively engaging in community group buying platforms and expanding into well-known supermarket chains, which may help mitigate some of the supply-demand pressures [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, PP will remain in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with upward pressure difficult to relieve. The high level of PP device maintenance can only alleviate part of the supply pressure, while the large inventory of supply and the upcoming new device production make it hard to fundamentally solve the supply - surplus problem. On the demand side, downstream speculative replenishment has led to high raw material inventory and weak spot trading [1]. - In the near term, the bearish trend of PP is expected to continue as it is difficult to reverse the fundamental situation. To see PP stabilize and rebound, improvements in the spot market, repair of basis, high device maintenance in the fourth quarter, high demand growth, and no increase in imports are required [5]. - In the long term, from the production forecast in the first quarter of 2026, new PP device production will be relatively limited, mainly focusing on digesting existing capacity. Coupled with an overall optimistic macro - expectation, PP is expected to show a bottom - up recovery [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Supply - demand aspect**: Although recent device maintenance has alleviated some supply pressure, the large inventory of supply and the upcoming 400,000 - ton new device of Guangxi Petrochemical make it difficult to fundamentally solve the supply - surplus problem. On the demand side, downstream speculative replenishment has led to high raw material inventory, weakening the demand - side support [1]. - **Macro aspect**: This week, crude oil prices peaked and fell. The result of the Sino - US trade negotiation, a 10% reduction in fentanyl tariffs, was lower than market expectations, leading to a weakening of the macro - environment and a general decline in chemical products. Macro - sentiment and cost - side fluctuations have a greater impact on the PP market [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Recent strategy review**: A unilateral long - at - low strategy was proposed on September 19 and closed after the National Day due to the decline in propane prices during the holiday [10]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range forecast**: The predicted price range of polypropylene in the next month is 6,500 - 7,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.94% and a historical percentile of 20.9% over the past three years [11]. - **Hedging strategy**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short PP2601 futures (25% hedging ratio, entry range 6,900 - 7,000 yuan/ton) and sell call options (50% hedging ratio, entry range 20 - 40) to lock in profits and reduce costs. For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy PP2601 futures (50% hedging ratio, entry range 6,500 - 6,550 yuan/ton) to lock in procurement costs [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: The coal price rose due to the shutdown of Shaanxi Shiyangou Coal Mine after an accident; relevant departments mentioned rectifying involution - style competition and establishing a fair and innovative business environment; a 450,000 - ton device of Quanzhou Guoheng malfunctioned and is expected to stop until November 7; two new PP lines (900,000 tons in total) of Daxie Petrochemical are expected to stop for 3 - 4 months due to upstream technical transformation [18]. - **Negative information**: The result of the Sino - US meeting in Busan, a 10% reduction in fentanyl tariffs, was lower than market expectations, leading to a decline [14]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Event Concerns - The meeting result of OPEC+ on December's crude oil production; the situation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict; relevant policy recommendations after the Fourth Plenary Session [19]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral trend and fund movement**: The market was mainly oscillating in the first half of the week and declined in the second half. This week, the trading volume decreased slightly, and the net short positions of the top five profitable seats increased significantly. Market sentiment has slightly improved, with more long - short competition [21]. - **Basis structure**: After speculative replenishment, downstream inventory is high, weakening spot demand. As of Friday, the basis in North China was - 170 yuan/ton (weakened by 48 yuan compared to last week), - 70 yuan/ton in East China (weakened by 8 yuan), and - 40 yuan/ton in South China (strengthened by 32 yuan) [23]. - **Spread structure**: Due to the relatively optimistic macro - expectation and fewer PP device productions in the first half of next year, the L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure [26]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - Due to the continuous weakness of PP, the profit situation of each production line is not optimistic. The recent increase in propane prices has led to a decline in PDH device profits, currently at - 300 yuan/ton. If the profits are further compressed, PDH devices may reduce production [31]. 3.5 Supply - demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - demand Balance Sheet Deduction - From the balance sheet, the future supply - demand pressure is not too large. The key is to digest the existing inventory. Maintaining supply - demand balance requires high device maintenance in the fourth quarter, a high demand growth rate (current apparent demand growth rate is 11%), and limited increase in imports [39]. 3.5.2 Supply - side and Deduction - The current PP operating rate is 77.06% (+1.13%). This week, devices such as Yulong Petrochemical and Zhongjing Petrochemical restarted, slightly increasing the operating rate. In November, devices such as Daxie Petrochemical and Maoming Petrochemical will be under maintenance, but the upcoming 400,000 - ton new device of Guangxi Petrochemical and the large existing capacity make it difficult to fundamentally relieve the supply pressure [45]. 3.5.3 Import - export and Deduction - **Import**: Due to the weak overseas prices, some low - price PP supplies may flow into China, but the increase is expected to be limited. - **Export**: Weak overseas demand and the off - season for exports restrict PP exports, but some enterprises have increased export orders by reducing prices this week [48]. 3.5.4 Demand - side and Deduction - The current average downstream operating rate is 52.61% (+0.24%). Affected by previous price fluctuations, downstream speculative replenishment has led to high raw material inventory and pre - empted some replenishment demand. This week, the spot market was inactive, with weak trading and a weak basis [55].