研究报告 鸡蛋周报 "旺季不旺"困局难破，蛋价持续探底之路 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 研究员：刘维新 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 上周鸡蛋期货盘面破位下行，主力 2510 合约创下上市以来新 低，截至上周五收盘，JD2510 合约报 3033 元/500 千克，跌 0.07%， 成交量 526,351 手，持仓 434,281 手。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2025 年 8 月 25 日星期一 上周鸡蛋市场延续弱势，主产区鸡蛋均价报 3.19 元/斤，虽 环比小幅上涨 5.63%，但仍处于历史同期低位，呈现"旺季不旺" 特征。周内短暂补库带动价格试探性反弹，但受新开产蛋鸡持续 增加及终端需求疲软影响，"供强需弱"矛盾依然突出，现货价 格最终承压阴跌。养殖持续亏损严重打击行业信心，补栏意愿低 迷，鸡苗均价环比下跌 2.29%至 2.99 元/羽，种蛋利用率仅约 50%。 同时淘汰鸡价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate last week showed an increase, with production reaching 19,980 tons, a 2.16% week - on - week growth and higher than the historical average. Demand - side inventory of sample enterprises also increased, with the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises rising by 0.51% to 95,081 tons and that of ternary material sample enterprises increasing by 4.45% to 17,296 tons. [8] - In terms of cost, the cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 82,375 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.04%, resulting in a profit of 2,126 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lepidolite was 86,253 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged, leading to a loss of 3,890 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. [9] - The overall assessment of the fundamentals is neutral. The basis on August 19th showed that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 1,840 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The overall inventory situation was complex, with the smelter inventory decreasing by 2.56% to 49,693 tons, lower than the historical average, while the downstream and other inventories increased, and the overall inventory decreased slightly by 0.11% to 142,256 tons, higher than the historical average, which is neutral. The disk showed that MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20, which is bullish. The net short position of the main contract decreased, which is bearish. [9] - In terms of expectations, in July 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 84,200 physical tons, a 3.27% increase. The import volume in July was 18,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 18,500 physical tons, a 2.78% increase. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 85,640 - 89,440 yuan/ton. [9] - The main logic is that the mismatch between production capacity leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. [12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,980 tons, a 2.16% week - on - week increase and higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,081 tons, a 0.51% week - on - week increase, and that of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,296 tons, a 4.45% week - on - week increase [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 82,375 yuan/ton, a 0.04% daily increase, with a profit of 2,126 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lepidolite was 86,253 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged, with a loss of 3,890 yuan/ton; the cost of the recycling end was close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that of the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - Fundamentals: Neutral; Basis: Bearish; Inventory: Neutral; Disk: Bullish; Main Position: Bearish [9]. - Expectations: In July 2025, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 physical tons, predicted to be 84,200 physical tons next month (3.27% increase); import volume was 18,000 physical tons, predicted to be 18,500 physical tons next month (2.78% increase). Demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 85,640 - 89,440 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Supply - side Data** - The weekly operating rate was 63.92%, remaining unchanged. The daily production cost of spodumene was 82,375 yuan/ton, a 0.04% increase. The monthly processing cost of spodumene was 19,810 yuan/ton, a 0.30% increase. The daily production profit of spodumene was 2,126 yuan/ton, a 98.88% increase. The daily production cost of lepidolite was 86,253 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The monthly processing cost of lepidolite was 35,300 yuan/ton, a 1.48% decrease. The daily production profit of lepidolite was - 3,890 yuan/ton, a 21.70% decrease. The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 142,256 tons, a 0.11% decrease. The smelter inventory was 49,693 tons, a 2.56% decrease. The downstream inventory was 48,283 tons, a 0.26% increase. Other inventory was 44,280 tons, a 2.36% increase. The monthly total production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 tons, a 4.41% increase. The monthly production of lithium concentrate was 44,810 tons, a 13.59% increase. The monthly production of lepidolite was 18,000 tons, a 7.60% decrease. The monthly production of salt - lake lithium was 12,340 tons, a 7.57% decrease. The monthly production of recycled lithium was 6,380 tons, a 9.81% increase. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate was 427,626 tons, a 17.25% decrease. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate was 17,697.62 tons, a 16.31% decrease. The monthly net import volume was 17,267.97 tons, a 17.22% decrease. The supply - demand balance was 2.682 million tons, a 67.31% increase [16]. - **Demand - side Data** - The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate was 59%, a 5.36% increase. The monthly production was 252,200 tons, a 9.70% increase. The monthly operating rate of ternary precursor was 50.97%, a 2.93% increase. The monthly production was 68,640 tons, a 5.75% increase. The weekly inventory of ternary materials was 17,296 tons, a 4.45% increase. The monthly total battery loading volume was 55,900 GWh, a 3.95% decrease. The loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 10,900 GWh, a 1.87% increase. The loading volume of ternary batteries was 44,900 GWh, a 5.27% decrease. The production of new energy vehicles was 1,268,000 units, a 0.16% decrease. The sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.329 million units, a 1.68% increase. The export volume of new energy vehicles was 205,000 units, a 3.30% decrease. The penetration rate of new energy vehicle sales was 48.67%, a 6.36% increase [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The rebound space of urea prices is limited due to the persistent pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. If export demand cannot make up for the shortfall, urea prices will face significant downward pressure [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 in Shandong increased by 17 yuan/ton (0.98%), in Shanxi remained unchanged, UR05 increased by 7 yuan/ton (0.39%), and UR09 increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.58%) [1] - Domestic spot prices (small - granules): In Henan, it increased by 20 yuan/ton (1.16%); in Hebei, by 10 yuan/ton (0.58%); in Northeast, remained unchanged; in Jiangsu, increased by 30 yuan/ton (1.75%) [1] - Upstream costs: Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged [1] - Downstream prices: The prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan, and melamine prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] Basis and Spread - Basis (Shandong spot - UR) increased by 23 yuan/ton [1] - Spread (01 - 05) increased by 10 yuan/ton [1] Market Situation - The trading volume of the main contract 2601 was 2601 lots and the open interest was 183,795 lots. The opening price was 1750 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1767 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1745 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1754 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1755 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand - The domestic urea supply is strong, with daily production close to 190,000 tons at a high level, and the upstream enterprise inventory is about 860,000 tons. Domestic agricultural demand may gradually enter the off - season [1]

| | 尿素早评20250818: 供强需弱格局难改 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日慶 | 变化值 单位 8月15日 8月14日 | | | | | 変化值 | | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) 0.64% | | 尿素期货价格 (收盘价) | UR01 山东 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1737.00 1700.00 | 1726.00 1720.00 | 11.00 -20.00 | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1783.00 | 1771.00 | 12.00 | 0.68% | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1721.00 | 1715.00 | 6.00 | 0.35% | | | | | | | | -1.16% | | 期现价格 | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1610.00 | 1620.00 | -10.00 | -0.62% | | 国内现货价格 | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1720.00 | 1740.00 | -20.00 | -1.15% | | (小顆粒) | 河北 | 元/ ...

Core Viewpoints - Consumption and investment data have significantly weakened, but industrial production remains relatively resilient [3][88] - The economic indicators for July reflect some mid-term risks, but policies are being intensified, suggesting that economic growth will remain within a reasonable range in the second half of the year [5][90] Consumption - The social retail sales (社零) in July grew by 3.7%, lower than the expected 4.9% and previous value of 4.8%. The decline is attributed to the slow disbursement of national subsidy funds, particularly affecting "old-for-new" products [2][9] - Service consumption showed relative stability, with restaurant income slightly improving to 1.1% and cumulative service retail sales maintaining a high level at 5.2% year-on-year [3][88] - Categories such as furniture and home appliances saw significant declines in growth rates, with furniture down by 8.1 percentage points to 20.6% and home appliances down by 3.7 percentage points to 28.7% [3][9] Investment - Fixed asset investment in July fell sharply, reflecting short-term weather disturbances and mid-term impacts such as declining investment prices and a reduction in real estate projects. The monthly year-on-year decline was 4.6 percentage points to -4.7%, marking the lowest level since Q1 2020 [4][13] - The construction sector, particularly outdoor projects, was significantly affected by extreme weather, leading to a more substantial decline in infrastructure and real estate investments compared to overall fixed investment [4][13] - Manufacturing investment also saw a notable decline, with equipment purchase investment growth dropping by 11.3 percentage points to 6% [4][13] Real Estate - Real estate sales continued to decline in July, with corporate financing weakening and a lagging impact from reduced projects. The growth rate of corporate credit financing fell sharply by 13.5 percentage points to -15.8%, the lowest in two years [4][89] - New construction and completion areas also saw significant declines, with new starts down by 6% to -15.4% and completion areas down by 27.7% to -29.4% [4][89] - The average down payment ratio for home purchases decreased to 68.1%, indicating a shift in market dynamics [4][89] Production - Despite significant weaknesses in consumption and investment, industrial production maintained relative resilience, primarily due to improvements in export-related production chains. The industrial added value in July decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 5.7% year-on-year, but still remained at a high level [4][33] - Strong performance was noted in industries such as black metal rolling (8.6%), transportation equipment (13.7%), and general equipment (8.4%), while sectors like metal products and electrical machinery faced declines due to equipment updates and internal competition [4][33] Summary - The economic landscape in July continued to show weak domestic demand and strong external demand. Although short-term factors significantly influenced July's data, there is potential for further declines in manufacturing and real estate investments in the second half of the year. It remains crucial to enhance service and infrastructure investments and stabilize consumer demand [5][90]

文 | 赵伟、屠强、贾东旭 联系人 | 屠强 、耿佩璇 事件： 7月，社零当月同比3.7%、预期4.9%、前值4.8%；固定资产投资累计同比1.6%、预期2.7%、前值 2.8%；房地产开发投资累计同比-12%、预期-11.5%、前值-11.2%；新建商品房销售面积累计同比-4%；工 业增加值当月同比5.7%、预期5.8%、前值6.8%。 核心观点：消费、投资数据明显走弱，但工业生产保持相对韧性 社零：国补资金下达较慢致"以旧换新"类商品增速回落，服务消费表现相对较好。 家具（-8.1pct至 20.6%）、家电（-3.7pct至28.7%）回落明显；汽车（-6.1pct至-1.5%）下行或与部分地区暂停汽车置换补 贴（仍保留报废更新补贴）有关。服务消费表现相对稳健，餐饮收入（1.1%）小幅改善，1-7月服务零售 额累计同比（5.2%）保持高位。旅游咨询租赁、交通出行、文体休闲、通讯信息等服务类零售额均保持 两位数增长。 投资：7月增速大幅回落反映短期天气因素扰动，但投资价格回落、设备自然更新周期结束、地产项目减 少等中期影响也值得关注。 7月固定投资当月同比回落4.6pct至-4.7%；极端天气影响施工进度 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate decreased by 7.31% week - on - week, higher than the historical average. The demand side showed a decrease in inventory for some sample enterprises, and the cost side had different trends for different raw materials. The market is expected to see strengthened demand next month, with potential inventory reduction, and the supply - demand pattern is shifting towards demand - driven. The lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 66,200 - 69,480 [8]. - The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are also some利多 factors such as manufacturers' production cut plans and a decrease in imports from Chile, while利空 factors include high - level supply from ore/salt lake ends and insufficient demand from the power battery end [9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 17,268 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 7.31% [8]. - **Demand**: The inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium sample enterprises was 93,672 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.27%. The inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,499 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.32% [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 68,421 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.02%, with a production profit of 1,755 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica was 75,292 yuan/ton, unchanged daily, with a production loss of 6,997 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and high production enthusiasm [8]. - **Base Difference**: On August 5th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 3,360 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 51,958 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.18%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 45,888 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.18%, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 43,880 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.42%. The total inventory was 141,726 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.00%, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Disk Surface**: The MA20 of the disk surface is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Force Position**: The net short position of the main force decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: In July 2025, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 physical tons, and it is predicted to be 84,200 physical tons next month, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%. The import volume in July was 18,000 physical tons, and it is predicted to be 18,500 physical tons next month, a month - on - month increase of 2.78%. Demand is expected to strengthen next month, with potential inventory reduction. The CIF price of 6% concentrate is flat daily and lower than the historical average. The supply - demand pattern is shifting towards demand - driven, and the lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 66,200 - 69,480 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price**: The futures closing prices of different contracts showed a downward trend, with the decline ranging from 0.86% to 2.75% [14]. - **Base Difference**: The base difference of different contracts showed an upward trend, with the increase ranging from 35.43% to 81.40% [14]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 14,443, a 14.60% increase from the previous value [14]. - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium salt, and other upstream products had different trends, with some remaining unchanged and some showing slight decreases or increases [14]. - **Prices of Cathode Materials and Lithium Batteries**: The prices of cathode materials and lithium batteries also had different trends, with most showing only slight changes [14]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Overview - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate showed different changes, and the production and processing costs of lithium spodumene also had corresponding trends [16]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The production and inventory of phosphoric acid iron - lithium and ternary materials showed different changes, and the monthly production and export of phosphoric acid iron also had corresponding trends [16]. 3.4 Other Supply - Related Data - **Lithium Ore Supply**: The price, production, import, and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore had different trends over time [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate Supply**: The production, import, and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources and grades showed different trends over time [27]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Supply**: The production, export, and capacity utilization rate of lithium hydroxide from different sources showed different trends over time [34]. 3.5 Cost - Profit Data - **Lithium Compound Cost - Profit**: The cost and profit of different lithium compounds, including lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and recycled lithium, showed different trends over time [39][42][45]. 3.6 Inventory Data - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate from different sources showed different trends over time [47]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources showed different trends over time [47]. 3.7 Demand - Related Data - **Lithium Battery Demand**: The price, production, shipment, and export of lithium batteries showed different trends over time [50]. - **Ternary Precursor Demand**: The price, cost, profit, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different trends over time [56][59]. - **Ternary Material Demand**: The price, cost, profit, production, and inventory of ternary materials showed different trends over time [62][64]. - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron - Lithium Demand**: The price, cost, profit, production, export, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron - lithium showed different trends over time [66][69]. - **New Energy Vehicle Demand**: The production, sales, export, and penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time [74][75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is shifting towards demand - led. Although there are some positive factors such as factory production cuts and reduced imports from Chile, the overall market is still affected by over - supply due to high - level supply from ore/salt lake ends and weak demand from the power battery end. The downward trend is difficult to change [8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 17,268 tons, a 7.31% week - on - week decrease, but still higher than the historical average. In July 2025, the production was 81,530 tons, and it is predicted to reach 84,200 tons next month, a 3.27% increase [8]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 93,672 tons, a 1.27% week - on - week decrease, and that of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,499 tons, a 0.32% week - on - week decrease. Next month, demand is expected to strengthen and inventory may decline [8]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 68,189 yuan/ton, a 1.02% daily decrease, with a production profit of 2,136 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 75,292 yuan/ton, a 1.21% daily decrease, with a production loss of 6,850 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the enthusiasm for production scheduling is average [8]. - **Base Difference**: On August 1st, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,350 yuan/ton, and the base difference of the 09 contract was 2,430 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter's inventory was 51,958 tons, a 6.18% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 45,888 tons, a 7.18% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The overall inventory was 141,726 tons, a 1.00% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Market**: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closes below MA20. The net short position of the main contract is increasing [8]. - **Expectation**: The CIF price of 6% concentrate has a daily decrease and is lower than the historical average. The 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate between 67,360 - 70,480 [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and other related products showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of lithium ore 01 increased by 0.61% from 69,140 to 69,560, and the base difference of 01 decreased by 37.41% from 2,860 to 1,790 [13]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate was 63.92%, a 2.77% increase. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 tons, a 4.41% increase. The monthly import of lithium concentrate decreased by 17.25%, and the monthly import of lithium carbonate decreased by 16.31% [17]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 290,700 tons, a 1.86% increase. The monthly export of lithium iron phosphate was 2,031,541 kg, a 115.75% increase. The monthly production of ternary materials was 68,640 tons, a 5.75% increase [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time. The production of lithium spodumene mines and lithium mica in China has also shown different trends in different years [24]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows different situations in different months. For example, in July 2025, the balance was 2,816 tons [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) has different trends. The monthly production in July 2025 was 81,530 tons. The monthly capacity also shows different levels [29]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate varies monthly. In July 2025, the balance was 2,682 tons [33]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Utilization Rate**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has different trends in different years. The production from different sources (smelting and causticizing) also shows different situations [36]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows different values in different months. In July 2025, the balance was - 3,149 tons [38]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The cost and profit of producing lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and recycled materials have different trends. For example, the profit of producing lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is positive, while that from lithium mica is negative [8][41][44]. - **Profit of Different Processes**: The profit of processes such as purifying industrial - grade lithium carbonate, carbonizing lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate also shows different trends [44]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects shows different trends. The overall inventory is higher than the historical average [8][49]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The inventory of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelters also shows different trends [49]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price and Production**: The price of batteries and the production of battery cells show different trends over time. The monthly production of battery cells and the monthly loading volume of power batteries also change [53]. - **Inventory and Export**: The inventory of lithium battery cells and the export volume of lithium batteries also show different trends [53][56]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Production**: The price of ternary precursors and the production capacity utilization rate show different trends. The monthly production of ternary precursors also changes [59]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors shows different values in different months. In July 2025, the balance was - 6,410 tons [62]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary materials and the cost - profit trend show different situations. The weekly operating rate and inventory of ternary materials also change [65][67]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/ Lithium Iron Phosphate - **Price and Production**: The price of phosphoric acid iron/lithium iron phosphate and the production capacity and production volume show different trends. The monthly production of phosphoric acid iron and lithium iron phosphate also changes [69][72]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate shows different trends [73]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Penetration Rate**: The production, sales, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles show different trends over time. The retail - wholesale ratio and dealer inventory index also change [77][78][81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, supply increased last week, demand remained weak, costs in Xinjiang decreased during the wet season, and it is expected to oscillate between 8305 - 8695 [6]. - For polysilicon, supply is expected to increase in August, demand shows signs of decline but may rebound later, and it is expected to oscillate between 47790 - 50610 [9][11]. - The main logic for the market is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, making the downward trend difficult to change [16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 81,000 tons, a 3.85% week - on - week increase [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 70,000 tons, a 1.40% week - on - week decrease. Demand is persistently low [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passed 553 was 2354 yuan/ton, and cost support weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On August 1st, the spot price of non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 1050 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 540,000 tons, a 0.93% week - on - week increase; sample enterprise inventory was 171,450 tons, a 3.40% week - on - week decrease; major port inventory was 119,000 tons, a 0.83% week - on - week decrease [6]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed below MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling is decreasing and remains at a low level, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support is increasing, and it is expected to oscillate between 8305 - 8695 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's output was 26,500 tons, a 3.92% week - on - week increase. The scheduled production in August is expected to be 130,500 tons, a 22.76% increase compared to the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer output was 11GW, a 1.78% week - on - week decrease; inventory was 181,500 tons, a 1.56% week - on - week increase. Silicon wafer production is currently in a loss state. The scheduled production in August is 53.29GW, a 1.02% increase compared to the previous month [10]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,500 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 9500 yuan/ton [10]. - Basis: On August 1st, the price of N - type dense material was 46,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 2200 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [13]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 229,000 tons, a 5.76% week - on - week decrease, remaining at a high level compared to the same period in history [13]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 09 contract closed above MA20 [13]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions [13]. - Expectation: Supply production scheduling continues to increase, demand shows signs of decline but may rebound later, cost support remains stable, and it is expected to oscillate between 47790 - 50610 [11]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts decreased, with the 09 contract down 2.97% week - on - week [19]. - Spot prices of some products remained stable, while the price of East China oxygen - passed 553 silicon decreased by 1.02% [19]. - Social inventory increased by 0.93% week - on - week, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 3.41% week - on - week, and major port inventory decreased by 0.83% week - on - week [19]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures prices of some contracts decreased, and the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable [21]. - Weekly silicon wafer output increased by 5.74% week - on - week, and inventory decreased by 22.06% week - on - week [21]. - Monthly battery cell output increased by 1.90% month - on - month, and the export volume increased by 24.25% [21]. - Monthly component output increased by 1.73% month - on - month, and the export volume decreased by 8.44% [21]. 3.3 Other Aspects - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product price difference trends show historical price and basis changes [23]. - Industrial silicon inventory trends show the historical inventory changes of different regions and ports [27]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends show the historical production and capacity utilization changes of sample enterprises [29]. - Industrial silicon component cost trends show the historical price changes of main production areas' electricity prices, silica prices, graphite electrodes, and some reducing agents [34]. - Industrial silicon cost - sample region trends show the historical cost and profit changes of 421 in Sichuan and Yunnan and oxygen - passed 553 in Xinjiang [37]. - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets show the historical supply, demand, import, export, and balance situations [38][41]. - Industrial silicon downstream - organic silicon trends show the production, price, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [44]. - Industrial silicon downstream - aluminum alloy trends show the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloys [52]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon trends show the cost, price, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other aspects of polysilicon [62]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - component composition cost - profit trends (210mm) show the cost and profit trends of 210mm component compositions [80]. - Industrial silicon downstream - polysilicon - photovoltaic grid - connected power generation trends show the trends of new power generation capacity, power generation composition, and solar power generation [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation of supply exceeding demand, with the downward trend difficult to change due to capacity mismatch. The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 66,740 - 69,820. It is predicted that the demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be reduced, and the supply - surplus situation will intensify [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [9][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,630 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.53%, higher than the historical average. The predicted production for next month is 81,150 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.57%, also higher than the historical average. The 6% spodumene CIF price decreased daily and is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 93,672 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.27%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,552 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.40%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month [8]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of imported spodumene concentrate is 68,893 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.87%, with a production profit of 2,075 yuan/ton; the cost of imported lepidolite is 76,215 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.75%, with a production loss of 7,136 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production scheduling enthusiasm is average. The salt lake end has sufficient profit margins and strong production scheduling motivation [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory is 143,170 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%, higher than the historical average. The smelter inventory is 55,385 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.57%, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory is 42,815 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.74%, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Position**: The net short position of the main contract has decreased, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Expected Market**: The import volume of lithium carbonate in June 2025 was 17,698 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.31%. The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 66,740 - 69,820 [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of most lithium - related products showed a downward trend. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased from 72,950 yuan/ton to 72,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.30% [14]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.80% to 62.2%. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 was 78,090 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.34%. The import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 17.25% month - on - month [18]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 2.09% to 229,900 tons, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate lithium increased by 2.30% to 68,360 tons. The monthly power battery loading volume increased by 1.93% to 58,200 GWh [18].