Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) is expected to oscillate weakly. The 2602 contract is recommended for observation, the 2604 contract can consider rolling short positions, and the 2610 contract should hold short positions lightly and short on rallies in the medium - to - long - term. The trend strength of the container shipping index (European Line) is -1 [11][15]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Performance - The main 2604 contract of the container shipping index (European Line) closed at 1202.7 points, with an increase of 788 lots in positions and a decline of 0.07%. The secondary main 2602 contract closed at 1719.0 points, with a decrease of 1583 lots in positions and a rise of 0.5% [11]. 2. Fundamental Data 2.1 Futures Data | Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | Trading Volume/Open Interest (Yesterday) | Trading Volume/Open Interest (Day before Yesterday) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2602 | 1719.0 | 0.50% | 2673 | 8878 | -1583 | 0.30 | 0.54 | | EC2604 | 1202.7 | -0.07% | 40524 | 40832 | 788 | 0.99 | 1.13 | [1] 2.2 Freight Rate Index Data - SCFIS: European route was 1956.39 points, with a weekly increase of 8.9%; US West route was 1323.98 points, with a weekly increase of 5.9%. - SCFI: European route was $1719/TEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 1.7%; US West route was $2218/FEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 1.4% [1]. 2.3 Spot Freight Data - Different carriers' shipping prices from Shanghai to Rotterdam in the short - term European line vary. For example, Maersk's $/40'GP is 2420 and $/20'GP is 1510 [1]. 2.4 Exchange Rate Data - The US dollar index was 99.35, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.97 [1]. 3. Capacity Analysis - In January, the weekly average capacity was 30.9 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.4%. In February, the weekly average capacity was revised down to 27.1 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 17.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.5%. In March, the weekly average capacity was 28.4 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% and a month - on - month increase of 5%. The Spring Festival suspension is mainly concentrated from the second half of February to the first week of March. The average capacities before, during, and after the Spring Festival in 2026 were 31.3, 22.1, and 30.7 million TEU/week respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 2.3%, 3.3%, and 20.4%. The capacity pressure after the festival is relatively greater [12]. 4. Geopolitical Situation - Hamas officials are ready to transfer their responsibilities to the Palestinian technocratic institution. Trump is closely monitoring the situation in Iran and keeping all options open. Maersk's MECL route will resume structural operation at the end of January and has a contingency plan [13]. 5. Demand Analysis - In January, most shipping companies felt that the BCO/NVO cargo volume was good, but the FAK side was average. The peak of cargo volume usually occurs around mid - January and then declines. The Ministry of Finance's tax - refund policy adjustment is expected to boost the overall demand for container shipping (European Line) from January to March and have a negative impact on demand after April [14]. 6. Spot Freight Forecast - It is expected that the average FAK from the 3rd to 4th week will be adjusted down to the range of $2600 - 2670/FEU, which will set the first - phase delivery settlement price of the 2602 contract on January 26 [14]. 7. Strategy Suggestions - For the 2602 contract, the valuation center may fall in the range of 1700 - 1750 points, and it is recommended to wait and see. For the 2604 contract, although there is a marginal benefit of the rush - shipping of photovoltaic and battery products in the first quarter, it cannot reverse the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season from March to April, and it can consider rolling short positions, with the upper pressure level referring to the range of 1200 - 1250 points. For the 2610 contract, hold short positions lightly and short on rallies in the medium - to - long - term, with the upper pressure level referring to the delivery settlement price of 1161 points of the 2510 contract [15].