Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of the Middle East geopolitical situation and Sino - US tariff policies. - In the case of high shipping capacity in week 44, it is expected that the price increase announcements in the first half of November will not be well - implemented. However, there are still upward driving forces at multiple price - increase announcement nodes in the future. - The current valuation of the December contract is high, and it may fluctuate with cargo bookings in the near future. Overall, it is recommended to conduct band trading mainly driven by spot prices. - In the case of repeated geopolitical situations, the far - month contracts have more room for increase, but the geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the 2026 contracts [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2510 closed at 1135.0 with a 3.17% increase, EC2512 at 1769.3 with a 5.19% increase, EC2602 at 1568.0 with a 3.02% increase, EC2604 at 1163.8 with a 0.75% increase, and EC2606 at 1361.0 with a 2.31% increase. The open interest of EC2510 decreased by 2024, while that of EC2512 increased by 2333 [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 634.3, with a month - on - month decrease of 52.4 and a week - on - week decrease of 46.3; the spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 201.3, with a month - on - month increase of 41.3 and a week - on - week decrease of 43.9 [1]. Index Information - **SCHIS**: Updated weekly, announced on 2025/10/20, the current value is 1140.38 points, with a 10.52% increase from the previous period [1]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/17, the current value is 1145 dollars/TEU, with a 7.21% increase from the previous period [1]. - **CCFI**: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/17, the current value is 1267.91 points, with a 1.49% decrease from the previous period [1]. - **NCFI**: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/17, the current value is 803.21 points, with a 14.96% increase from the previous period [1]. Shipping Capacity and Market Conditions - **Shipping Capacity**: The average weekly shipping capacity in October, November, and December is 26.9, 31.6, and 350,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended sailings, it is 26.9, 30, and 330,000 TEU. The shipping capacity in week 44 and week 45 is 334,000 and 300,000 TEU respectively, indicating high supply pressure [1]. - **Market Conditions**: Currently in the off - season, week 42 had good cargo collection, week 43 had good cargo collection for OA with a small number of cargo roll - overs, and PA and GEMINI had average cargo collection, maintaining a weak supply - demand balance. In week 44, with high shipping capacity, the pressure on cargo collection increased significantly, especially for the PA alliance [1]. Recent European Line Quotation - **Week 42**: The final offline prices were PA at 1500, GEMINI at 1600, and OA at 1800 US dollars, with an average of 1640 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market) [2]. - **Week 43**: The PA alliance further reduced the price by 100 to 1400 US dollars. The offline quotes were PA at 1400, GEMINI at 1600, and OA at 1800 US dollars [2]. - **November Price Increase Announcements**: Shipping companies announced price increases mostly in the range of 2500 - 2700 US dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the futures market. On Tuesday, MSK opened the booking at 2350 US dollars, in line with expectations [2]. Related News - On October 21, US Vice - President Vance arrived in Israel to promote the second phase of the Gaza cease - fire plan. - On the same day, US President Trump stated on his social platform that if Hamas continued to violate the agreement with the US, multiple US allies would "enter Gaza with strong force" at the US request. Trump also asked countries and Israel to hold back and hoped that Hamas would "make the right decision" [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of the Middle - East geopolitics and Sino - US relations policies. With high capacity in week 44, the implementation of price increases in the first half of November is expected to be poor, but there are still upward drivers at multiple price - increase announcement nodes later. The current valuation of December is not low, and it has returned to the stage mainly driven by spot (price increase announcements & implementation). In the case of repeated geopolitical situations, the upward space of far - month contracts is larger [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 are 1100.1, 1682.0, 1522.0, 1155.1, and 1330.3 respectively, with daily increases of 0.29%, 1.65%, 3.40%, 2.77%, and 3.68%. The position of EC2510 decreased by 628, while that of EC2512 increased by 442 [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602 are - 581.9 and 160.0 respectively, with daily decreases of 24.1 and 22.7 [1]. 3.2 Shipping Indexes - **SCHIC**: Updated every Monday, the value on October 20, 2025, is 1140.38 points, with a 10.52% increase from the previous period [1]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated every Friday, the value on October 17, 2025, is 1145 dollars/TEU, with a 7.21% increase from the previous period [1]. - **CCFI (European Line)**: Updated every Friday, the value on October 17, 2025, is 1267.91 points, with a 1.49% decrease from the previous period [1]. - **NCFI**: Updated every week, the value on October 17, 2025, is 803.21 points, with a 14.96% increase from the previous period [1]. 3.3 Shipping Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The average weekly capacities in October, November, and December are 269,000, 316,000, and 350,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended, they are 269,000, 300,000, and 330,000 TEU. The capacities in week 44 and 45 are 334,000 and 300,000 TEU respectively, indicating high supply pressure [1]. - **Demand**: Currently in the off - season, the cargo collection in week 42 was good, and that in week 43 of the OA alliance was good with a small amount of container use in the south. The cargo volume of PA and GEMINI was average. The supply - demand relationship maintained a weak balance. In week 44, with high capacity, the cargo - collection pressure increased significantly, especially for the PA alliance [1]. 3.4 Shipping Quotes - **Week 42**: The final offline prices of PA, GEMINI, and OA are 1500, 1600, and 1800 dollars respectively, with an average of 1640 dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market) [2]. - **Week 43**: The PA alliance continued to reduce the price by 100 dollars to 1400 dollars. The offline quotes of PA, GEMINI, and OA are 1400, 1600, and 1800 dollars respectively [8]. - **November Price Increase Announcements**: Shipping companies announced price increases mostly in the range of 2500 - 2700 dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the futures market [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of Middle - East geopolitics and Sino - US relations policies. With high shipping capacity in week 44, the implementation of price increases in the first half of November is expected to be poor, but there are still upward drivers from multiple price increase announcements later. The valuation of the December contract is not low, and it has entered a period of band trading mainly driven by spot prices (announcements and implementations of price increases). Geopolitical factors have a large impact on 2026 contracts [2] - The supply pressure is high, with the average weekly shipping capacity in October, November, and December at 269,000, 316,000, and 350,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended sailings, the capacities are 269,000, 300,000, and 330,000 TEU. The capacities in week 44 and 45 are 334,000 and 300,000 TEU respectively. The market is in the off - season, with a weak balance between supply and demand. In week 44, the shipping capacity is high, and the pressure on cargo collection has increased sharply, especially for the PA alliance [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Data - **Futures Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 are 1096.9, 1654.7, 1472.0, 1124.0, and 1283.1 respectively, with changes of - 0.36%, 0.22%, 2.99%, 0.37%, and 0.15% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 are 1580, 29837, 5161, 3030, and 172 respectively. The open interests are 9024, SERED, 9438, 13702, and 1545 respectively, with changes of - 1036, - 139, 79, - 257, and - 2 [2] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602 are - 557.8 and 182.7 respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 7.6 and - 39.2, and week - on - week changes of - 124.7 and - 19.9 [2] 3.2 Freight Index Data - **TETANT Index**: Updated every Monday, the value on October 13, 2025, was 1031.80 points, a decrease of 1.40% from the previous period [2] - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated every Friday, the value on October 17, 2025, was 1145 US dollars/TEU, an increase of 7.21% from the previous period [2] - **CCFI (European Line)**: The value on October 17, 2025, was 1267.91 points, a decrease of 1.49% from the previous period [2] - **NCFI**: Updated every week, the value on October 17, 2025, was 803.21 points, an increase of 14.96% from the previous period [2] 3.3 Recent European Line Quotation - **Week 42**: The final offline implementation prices of PA, GEMINI, and OA were 1500, 1600, and 1800 US dollars respectively, with an average of 1640 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market) [3] - **Week 43**: The PA alliance further reduced the price by 100 to 1400 US dollars. The announced price increase in November is to 2500 - 2700 US dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the futures market [3] 3.4 Related News - On October 20, US President Trump stated that the cease - fire in the Gaza Strip was still in effect. Egyptian officials said that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu had no intention of reaching the second - stage agreement of the Gaza cease - fire [4] - On October 20, the Israeli military resumed implementing the Gaza cease - fire agreement after retaliatory air strikes. On October 19, Israeli National Security Minister Ben - Gvir called on Prime Minister Netanyahu to fully resume military operations in the Gaza Strip [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate is expected to show a "U" - shaped movement. The European - line freight rate and futures price are predicted to remain in a weak and volatile state in the medium term until November, and then start to rebound. The short - term fluctuation range is expected to be between 900 and 1200 points [6][7]. - For trading strategies, the 12 - contract can be considered for low - buying opportunities, the medium - term high - selling strategy can continue, and the long - term strategy depends on the situation. A positive spread strategy for the 12 - 02 contracts can be attempted when their prices converge, and a "selling over - the - counter options + buying futures" hedging combination can be tried [8]. - The current supply - demand situation shows that the demand is weak overall, especially in the European line, and the supply growth rate has decreased as expected, but the stock still has pressure, resulting in a continued oversupply situation [6][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint Summary - **Trend Forecast**: The demand is relatively weak this year. The off - season is expected to last until November, and then pick up. The supply still has an oversupply situation due to insufficient idle capacity. The European - line freight rate and futures price are expected to be weak in the medium term and rebound in November. However, variables such as shipping company actions and macro - level impacts need to be noted [6]. - **Interval Outlook**: The short - term fluctuation range of the long - term European - line freight rate is [900, 1200] points [7]. - **Strategy Outlook**: The 12 - contract can be considered for low - buying opportunities, the medium - term high - selling strategy can continue, and the long - term strategy depends on the situation. A positive spread strategy for the 12 - 02 contracts can be attempted when their prices converge, and a "selling over - the - counter options + buying futures" hedging combination can be tried [8]. - **Risk Points**: Red Sea resumption of navigation, unexpected development of tariffs, etc. [9] 3.2 Market Review - **Container Shipping Freight Rate Review**: In the third quarter, the European - line settlement freight rate first rose seasonally in early July and then declined. The decline was mainly due to the "off - peak in peak season" of booking demand. The European - line spot freight rate index also showed a downward trend. The US - West line freight rate fluctuated widely due to factors such as tariffs and port fees. Overall, the third quarter showed an "off - peak in peak season" situation [12][13]. - **Container Shipping Futures Price Review**: The container shipping index (European line) futures price first rose with seasonal demand recovery and then declined due to oversupply. After reaching the lowest point in September, it rebounded slightly with shipping company price support. The volatility in the third quarter was relatively narrow [18]. - **Demand "Off - peak in Peak Season"**: The global container shipping market demand maintained a certain seasonality in the third quarter, but the year - on - year growth rate was relatively low. The European - line demand was relatively poor, as reflected by the low congestion index of European ports. The euro - zone economy was in a weak recovery state, unable to provide strong support for the futures price [23][25][28]. - **Supply Growth Rate Declined, Stock Still under Pressure**: - **High Effective Capacity**: The global container ship capacity growth rate has gradually slowed down but remains relatively high, higher than the average. This is one of the reasons for the high overall supply stock [30]. - **Slowdown in New Ship Orders and Deliveries**: In July and August, the new order volume and shipbuilding completion volume of container ships decreased significantly year - on - year, indicating that the market capacity is relatively saturated and the demand is not strong [40]. - **Stable Red Sea Diversion Structure**: The Red Sea diversion continues, and the transit volume of the Suez Canal is still low. However, the current diversion pattern is relatively stable, and its supporting effect on the freight rate of the Asia - Europe route is relatively weak [42]. 3.3 Core Concerns - **Tariff Changes**: In the third quarter, tariff changes were relatively small compared to the second quarter. However, recent US tariff announcements on EU and other products will have a negative impact on the international trade environment and the container shipping market in the medium and long term. The follow - up results of China - US tariff negotiations also need to be continuously monitored [46][47]. - **Shipping Company Measures**: Shipping companies have been issuing price - increase letters, but the actual implementation effect has been poor except in June. However, their price - increasing actions can have a short - term positive impact on the futures market sentiment. Whether shipping companies can maintain the current price quotes will affect the valuation of the futures price [50]. - **Fundamentals**: In the fourth quarter, the demand is expected to remain weak until November and then pick up, but overall it may still be relatively weak. The supply growth rate is expected to continue to decline but remain at a high level, and the oversupply situation will continue [53]. 3.4 Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook - **Valuation**: Currently, the valuation is weak but has the potential to increase. The shipping companies' price - supporting actions in mid - October have led to a recovery in the futures price valuation. The current basis has converged to a reasonable range [54][55]. - **Demand Side**: - **Trade - Related Macroeconomic Indicators**: The OECD composite leading indicator shows that China's overall export demand in the fourth quarter may be relatively stable but slightly weak [56]. - **Trade Recovery**: Based on past experience, China's export trade data usually increases from mid - November, but there is a possibility of blurred seasonality this year [58]. - **Authoritative Institution Forecasts**: Clarksons has raised the trade volume forecast for the Asia - Europe route in the next two years, but the increase is relatively small [60]. - **Supply Outlook**: The total container ship capacity in 2025 is expected to increase by 6.6% year - on - year, and the capacity of 17000 + container ships is expected to increase by 6.1% year - on - year. The oversupply situation is expected to continue in the fourth quarter [60][63].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a clear industry investment rating but offers trading strategies and potential price ranges for specific contracts [14] Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate index SCFIS increased by 9.6% on June 30, exceeding expectations. The current 08 contract is at a discount to the spot freight rate in early July. Ship - owners' pricing strategies vary, with Maersk adopting a low - price strategy, while the OA and PA alliances may raise prices in mid - July. If the spot freight rate rises in late July, the 2508 contract may experience a small subsidy water market; if the price increase fails, the 2508 contract's neutral valuation is around 1750 points. The strategy is to short the 2510 contract at high prices, with the upper pressure level at 1500 points [11][12][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data - Yesterday, the container shipping index fluctuated weakly. The main 2508 contract closed at 1761.4 points, down 1.92%; the second - main 2510 contract closed at 1339.0 points, up 0.31%. The EC2506 final delivery settlement price was 1919.3 points [11] 2. Freight Index Data - On June 30, the SCFIS index was reported at 2123.24 points, a 9.6% increase. The index converted to spot freight is about $3050/FEU, corresponding to the average FAK of shipping companies in late June. The FAK of shipping companies in early July is between $2900 - $3640/FEU, with an average of about $3400/FEU, corresponding to an SCFIS index of around 2380 points in early July [11] 3. Spot Freight Data - Maersk lowered its price by $200/FEU in the second week of July, while other shipping companies' list prices did not follow the large - scale price cut. The OA alliance's FAK price is between $3500 - $3560/FEU, the PA alliance's list price is between $3300 - $3400/FEU, and MSC's NAC price in early July is $3640/FEU [12] 4. Fundamental Data - In July, there was 1 additional blank sailing and 1 additional pending voyage compared to last week. In August, the number of blank sailings remains at 4, and the number of pending voyages is revised down from 3 to 1. If pending voyages are not considered, the average weekly capacity in August is 30.6 million TEU/week; if considered, it rises to 31 million TEU/week. It is expected that the space for shipping companies to actively reduce capacity in August is relatively limited [13][14] 5. Market Outlook and Strategy - Due to the incomplete start of Christmas cargo exports and concentrated shipments from long - term contract customers, the cargo volume is expected to have a normal seasonal increase in July, with a possible turning point at the end of July. The increase in capacity in July is roughly equivalent to the historical increase in cargo volume. The strategy is to short the 2510 contract at high prices, with the upper pressure level at 1500 points [14]