2026 年集运欧线期货期权白皮书 ——集运欧线：回首向来萧瑟处 也无风雨也无晴 集运产业链白皮书 证监许可【2011】1288 号 集运欧线期货期权白皮书编委会 格林大华期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院 王骏 交易咨询号：Z0021220 王凯 交易咨询号：Z0013404 纪晓云 交易咨询号：Z0011402 摘要 1 2025 年全年，集运欧线期现货价格均震荡走势，波动率明显下降。 长期视角看，集运需求取决于全球特别是中欧经济和贸易往来。欧盟是中国的第二大 贸易伙伴国，2026 年中欧贸易带来的集运需求仍有增量，但增量较低%。2026 年新船 继续交付，集运供给增速大概率超过需求，运力供需失衡矛盾越发明显。综合判断， 2026 年集运市场供需持续宽松，价格将承压下行。 2026 年市场最大的变数是红海复航。若红海复航，复航时间大概率为 2026 年春节后， 欧线运力过剩矛盾会进一步加剧，运价中枢可能进一步下移。但红海局势存在较大不 确定性，通航反复情况下，集运欧线价格仍将震荡走低，价格中枢略高，预估区间 1100-1700。 具体来看：春节前，预计期价震荡偏弱，主要是节前抢运和航司挺价影响，集运欧线 价格 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 集运指数：目前交投冷清，低估值下驱动有限 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 当前欧线现货运价受春节前货量真空期影响整体呈回落态势，各联盟报价分化调整。GEMINI 联盟（马士基 + 赫伯罗特），WK7 马士基开舱价降至 1995 | | | 美元 | / FEU，赫伯罗特维持 2300-2500 美元 / FEU；OA 联盟（COSCO、CMA CGM、EMC、OOCL）华北口岸中远海运已调至 2200-2300 美元 / FEU，华东 | | 现货运价 | 中性 | 口岸跟进后整体区间趋同；PA 联盟（ONE、HMM、阳明海运）受 ONE 表价传导，均值趋近 2000 美元 / FEU，部分集量特价低至 1800 美元 / FEU；MSC | | | | 独立运营并随市场节奏小幅下调，报价逐步下探。各联盟降价揽货以抢占货量，供需弱现实压制运价。 | | | | 目前已有3家头部航司提涨3月至3000美金 / FEU.。 | | | | 【1】据美国新闻网站 A ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) is expected to oscillate weakly. The 2602 contract is recommended for observation, the 2604 contract can consider rolling short positions, and the 2610 contract should hold short positions lightly and short on rallies in the medium - to - long - term. The trend strength of the container shipping index (European Line) is -1 [11][15]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Performance - The main 2604 contract of the container shipping index (European Line) closed at 1202.7 points, with an increase of 788 lots in positions and a decline of 0.07%. The secondary main 2602 contract closed at 1719.0 points, with a decrease of 1583 lots in positions and a rise of 0.5% [11]. 2. Fundamental Data 2.1 Futures Data | Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | Trading Volume/Open Interest (Yesterday) | Trading Volume/Open Interest (Day before Yesterday) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2602 | 1719.0 | 0.50% | 2673 | 8878 | -1583 | 0.30 | 0.54 | | EC2604 | 1202.7 | -0.07% | 40524 | 40832 | 788 | 0.99 | 1.13 | [1] 2.2 Freight Rate Index Data - SCFIS: European route was 1956.39 points, with a weekly increase of 8.9%; US West route was 1323.98 points, with a weekly increase of 5.9%. - SCFI: European route was $1719/TEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 1.7%; US West route was $2218/FEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 1.4% [1]. 2.3 Spot Freight Data - Different carriers' shipping prices from Shanghai to Rotterdam in the short - term European line vary. For example, Maersk's $/40'GP is 2420 and $/20'GP is 1510 [1]. 2.4 Exchange Rate Data - The US dollar index was 99.35, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.97 [1]. 3. Capacity Analysis - In January, the weekly average capacity was 30.9 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.4%. In February, the weekly average capacity was revised down to 27.1 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 17.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.5%. In March, the weekly average capacity was 28.4 million TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% and a month - on - month increase of 5%. The Spring Festival suspension is mainly concentrated from the second half of February to the first week of March. The average capacities before, during, and after the Spring Festival in 2026 were 31.3, 22.1, and 30.7 million TEU/week respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 2.3%, 3.3%, and 20.4%. The capacity pressure after the festival is relatively greater [12]. 4. Geopolitical Situation - Hamas officials are ready to transfer their responsibilities to the Palestinian technocratic institution. Trump is closely monitoring the situation in Iran and keeping all options open. Maersk's MECL route will resume structural operation at the end of January and has a contingency plan [13]. 5. Demand Analysis - In January, most shipping companies felt that the BCO/NVO cargo volume was good, but the FAK side was average. The peak of cargo volume usually occurs around mid - January and then declines. The Ministry of Finance's tax - refund policy adjustment is expected to boost the overall demand for container shipping (European Line) from January to March and have a negative impact on demand after April [14]. 6. Spot Freight Forecast - It is expected that the average FAK from the 3rd to 4th week will be adjusted down to the range of $2600 - 2670/FEU, which will set the first - phase delivery settlement price of the 2602 contract on January 26 [14]. 7. Strategy Suggestions - For the 2602 contract, the valuation center may fall in the range of 1700 - 1750 points, and it is recommended to wait and see. For the 2604 contract, although there is a marginal benefit of the rush - shipping of photovoltaic and battery products in the first quarter, it cannot reverse the weak supply - demand balance in the off - season from March to April, and it can consider rolling short positions, with the upper pressure level referring to the range of 1200 - 1250 points. For the 2610 contract, hold short positions lightly and short on rallies in the medium - to - long - term, with the upper pressure level referring to the delivery settlement price of 1161 points of the 2510 contract [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of the Middle East geopolitical situation and Sino - US tariff policies. - In the case of high shipping capacity in week 44, it is expected that the price increase announcements in the first half of November will not be well - implemented. However, there are still upward driving forces at multiple price - increase announcement nodes in the future. - The current valuation of the December contract is high, and it may fluctuate with cargo bookings in the near future. Overall, it is recommended to conduct band trading mainly driven by spot prices. - In the case of repeated geopolitical situations, the far - month contracts have more room for increase, but the geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the 2026 contracts [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2510 closed at 1135.0 with a 3.17% increase, EC2512 at 1769.3 with a 5.19% increase, EC2602 at 1568.0 with a 3.02% increase, EC2604 at 1163.8 with a 0.75% increase, and EC2606 at 1361.0 with a 2.31% increase. The open interest of EC2510 decreased by 2024, while that of EC2512 increased by 2333 [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 634.3, with a month - on - month decrease of 52.4 and a week - on - week decrease of 46.3; the spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 201.3, with a month - on - month increase of 41.3 and a week - on - week decrease of 43.9 [1]. Index Information - **SCHIS**: Updated weekly, announced on 2025/10/20, the current value is 1140.38 points, with a 10.52% increase from the previous period [1]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/17, the current value is 1145 dollars/TEU, with a 7.21% increase from the previous period [1]. - **CCFI**: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/17, the current value is 1267.91 points, with a 1.49% decrease from the previous period [1]. - **NCFI**: Updated every Friday, announced on 2025/10/17, the current value is 803.21 points, with a 14.96% increase from the previous period [1]. Shipping Capacity and Market Conditions - **Shipping Capacity**: The average weekly shipping capacity in October, November, and December is 26.9, 31.6, and 350,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended sailings, it is 26.9, 30, and 330,000 TEU. The shipping capacity in week 44 and week 45 is 334,000 and 300,000 TEU respectively, indicating high supply pressure [1]. - **Market Conditions**: Currently in the off - season, week 42 had good cargo collection, week 43 had good cargo collection for OA with a small number of cargo roll - overs, and PA and GEMINI had average cargo collection, maintaining a weak supply - demand balance. In week 44, with high shipping capacity, the pressure on cargo collection increased significantly, especially for the PA alliance [1]. Recent European Line Quotation - **Week 42**: The final offline prices were PA at 1500, GEMINI at 1600, and OA at 1800 US dollars, with an average of 1640 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market) [2]. - **Week 43**: The PA alliance further reduced the price by 100 to 1400 US dollars. The offline quotes were PA at 1400, GEMINI at 1600, and OA at 1800 US dollars [2]. - **November Price Increase Announcements**: Shipping companies announced price increases mostly in the range of 2500 - 2700 US dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the futures market. On Tuesday, MSK opened the booking at 2350 US dollars, in line with expectations [2]. Related News - On October 21, US Vice - President Vance arrived in Israel to promote the second phase of the Gaza cease - fire plan. - On the same day, US President Trump stated on his social platform that if Hamas continued to violate the agreement with the US, multiple US allies would "enter Gaza with strong force" at the US request. Trump also asked countries and Israel to hold back and hoped that Hamas would "make the right decision" [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of the Middle - East geopolitics and Sino - US relations policies. With high capacity in week 44, the implementation of price increases in the first half of November is expected to be poor, but there are still upward drivers at multiple price - increase announcement nodes later. The current valuation of December is not low, and it has returned to the stage mainly driven by spot (price increase announcements & implementation). In the case of repeated geopolitical situations, the upward space of far - month contracts is larger [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 are 1100.1, 1682.0, 1522.0, 1155.1, and 1330.3 respectively, with daily increases of 0.29%, 1.65%, 3.40%, 2.77%, and 3.68%. The position of EC2510 decreased by 628, while that of EC2512 increased by 442 [1]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602 are - 581.9 and 160.0 respectively, with daily decreases of 24.1 and 22.7 [1]. 3.2 Shipping Indexes - **SCHIC**: Updated every Monday, the value on October 20, 2025, is 1140.38 points, with a 10.52% increase from the previous period [1]. - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated every Friday, the value on October 17, 2025, is 1145 dollars/TEU, with a 7.21% increase from the previous period [1]. - **CCFI (European Line)**: Updated every Friday, the value on October 17, 2025, is 1267.91 points, with a 1.49% decrease from the previous period [1]. - **NCFI**: Updated every week, the value on October 17, 2025, is 803.21 points, with a 14.96% increase from the previous period [1]. 3.3 Shipping Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The average weekly capacities in October, November, and December are 269,000, 316,000, and 350,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended, they are 269,000, 300,000, and 330,000 TEU. The capacities in week 44 and 45 are 334,000 and 300,000 TEU respectively, indicating high supply pressure [1]. - **Demand**: Currently in the off - season, the cargo collection in week 42 was good, and that in week 43 of the OA alliance was good with a small amount of container use in the south. The cargo volume of PA and GEMINI was average. The supply - demand relationship maintained a weak balance. In week 44, with high capacity, the cargo - collection pressure increased significantly, especially for the PA alliance [1]. 3.4 Shipping Quotes - **Week 42**: The final offline prices of PA, GEMINI, and OA are 1500, 1600, and 1800 dollars respectively, with an average of 1640 dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market) [2]. - **Week 43**: The PA alliance continued to reduce the price by 100 dollars to 1400 dollars. The offline quotes of PA, GEMINI, and OA are 1400, 1600, and 1800 dollars respectively [8]. - **November Price Increase Announcements**: Shipping companies announced price increases mostly in the range of 2500 - 2700 dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the futures market [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of Middle - East geopolitics and Sino - US relations policies. With high shipping capacity in week 44, the implementation of price increases in the first half of November is expected to be poor, but there are still upward drivers from multiple price increase announcements later. The valuation of the December contract is not low, and it has entered a period of band trading mainly driven by spot prices (announcements and implementations of price increases). Geopolitical factors have a large impact on 2026 contracts [2] - The supply pressure is high, with the average weekly shipping capacity in October, November, and December at 269,000, 316,000, and 350,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended sailings, the capacities are 269,000, 300,000, and 330,000 TEU. The capacities in week 44 and 45 are 334,000 and 300,000 TEU respectively. The market is in the off - season, with a weak balance between supply and demand. In week 44, the shipping capacity is high, and the pressure on cargo collection has increased sharply, especially for the PA alliance [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Contract Data - **Futures Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 are 1096.9, 1654.7, 1472.0, 1124.0, and 1283.1 respectively, with changes of - 0.36%, 0.22%, 2.99%, 0.37%, and 0.15% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 are 1580, 29837, 5161, 3030, and 172 respectively. The open interests are 9024, SERED, 9438, 13702, and 1545 respectively, with changes of - 1036, - 139, 79, - 257, and - 2 [2] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads of EC2510 - 2512, EC2512 - 2602 are - 557.8 and 182.7 respectively, with month - on - month changes of - 7.6 and - 39.2, and week - on - week changes of - 124.7 and - 19.9 [2] 3.2 Freight Index Data - **TETANT Index**: Updated every Monday, the value on October 13, 2025, was 1031.80 points, a decrease of 1.40% from the previous period [2] - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated every Friday, the value on October 17, 2025, was 1145 US dollars/TEU, an increase of 7.21% from the previous period [2] - **CCFI (European Line)**: The value on October 17, 2025, was 1267.91 points, a decrease of 1.49% from the previous period [2] - **NCFI**: Updated every week, the value on October 17, 2025, was 803.21 points, an increase of 14.96% from the previous period [2] 3.3 Recent European Line Quotation - **Week 42**: The final offline implementation prices of PA, GEMINI, and OA were 1500, 1600, and 1800 US dollars respectively, with an average of 1640 US dollars (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures market) [3] - **Week 43**: The PA alliance further reduced the price by 100 to 1400 US dollars. The announced price increase in November is to 2500 - 2700 US dollars, with an average equivalent to about 1800 points on the futures market [3] 3.4 Related News - On October 20, US President Trump stated that the cease - fire in the Gaza Strip was still in effect. Egyptian officials said that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu had no intention of reaching the second - stage agreement of the Gaza cease - fire [4] - On October 20, the Israeli military resumed implementing the Gaza cease - fire agreement after retaliatory air strikes. On October 19, Israeli National Security Minister Ben - Gvir called on Prime Minister Netanyahu to fully resume military operations in the Gaza Strip [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate is expected to show a "U" - shaped movement. The European - line freight rate and futures price are predicted to remain in a weak and volatile state in the medium term until November, and then start to rebound. The short - term fluctuation range is expected to be between 900 and 1200 points [6][7]. - For trading strategies, the 12 - contract can be considered for low - buying opportunities, the medium - term high - selling strategy can continue, and the long - term strategy depends on the situation. A positive spread strategy for the 12 - 02 contracts can be attempted when their prices converge, and a "selling over - the - counter options + buying futures" hedging combination can be tried [8]. - The current supply - demand situation shows that the demand is weak overall, especially in the European line, and the supply growth rate has decreased as expected, but the stock still has pressure, resulting in a continued oversupply situation [6][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint Summary - **Trend Forecast**: The demand is relatively weak this year. The off - season is expected to last until November, and then pick up. The supply still has an oversupply situation due to insufficient idle capacity. The European - line freight rate and futures price are expected to be weak in the medium term and rebound in November. However, variables such as shipping company actions and macro - level impacts need to be noted [6]. - **Interval Outlook**: The short - term fluctuation range of the long - term European - line freight rate is [900, 1200] points [7]. - **Strategy Outlook**: The 12 - contract can be considered for low - buying opportunities, the medium - term high - selling strategy can continue, and the long - term strategy depends on the situation. A positive spread strategy for the 12 - 02 contracts can be attempted when their prices converge, and a "selling over - the - counter options + buying futures" hedging combination can be tried [8]. - **Risk Points**: Red Sea resumption of navigation, unexpected development of tariffs, etc. [9] 3.2 Market Review - **Container Shipping Freight Rate Review**: In the third quarter, the European - line settlement freight rate first rose seasonally in early July and then declined. The decline was mainly due to the "off - peak in peak season" of booking demand. The European - line spot freight rate index also showed a downward trend. The US - West line freight rate fluctuated widely due to factors such as tariffs and port fees. Overall, the third quarter showed an "off - peak in peak season" situation [12][13]. - **Container Shipping Futures Price Review**: The container shipping index (European line) futures price first rose with seasonal demand recovery and then declined due to oversupply. After reaching the lowest point in September, it rebounded slightly with shipping company price support. The volatility in the third quarter was relatively narrow [18]. - **Demand "Off - peak in Peak Season"**: The global container shipping market demand maintained a certain seasonality in the third quarter, but the year - on - year growth rate was relatively low. The European - line demand was relatively poor, as reflected by the low congestion index of European ports. The euro - zone economy was in a weak recovery state, unable to provide strong support for the futures price [23][25][28]. - **Supply Growth Rate Declined, Stock Still under Pressure**: - **High Effective Capacity**: The global container ship capacity growth rate has gradually slowed down but remains relatively high, higher than the average. This is one of the reasons for the high overall supply stock [30]. - **Slowdown in New Ship Orders and Deliveries**: In July and August, the new order volume and shipbuilding completion volume of container ships decreased significantly year - on - year, indicating that the market capacity is relatively saturated and the demand is not strong [40]. - **Stable Red Sea Diversion Structure**: The Red Sea diversion continues, and the transit volume of the Suez Canal is still low. However, the current diversion pattern is relatively stable, and its supporting effect on the freight rate of the Asia - Europe route is relatively weak [42]. 3.3 Core Concerns - **Tariff Changes**: In the third quarter, tariff changes were relatively small compared to the second quarter. However, recent US tariff announcements on EU and other products will have a negative impact on the international trade environment and the container shipping market in the medium and long term. The follow - up results of China - US tariff negotiations also need to be continuously monitored [46][47]. - **Shipping Company Measures**: Shipping companies have been issuing price - increase letters, but the actual implementation effect has been poor except in June. However, their price - increasing actions can have a short - term positive impact on the futures market sentiment. Whether shipping companies can maintain the current price quotes will affect the valuation of the futures price [50]. - **Fundamentals**: In the fourth quarter, the demand is expected to remain weak until November and then pick up, but overall it may still be relatively weak. The supply growth rate is expected to continue to decline but remain at a high level, and the oversupply situation will continue [53]. 3.4 Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook - **Valuation**: Currently, the valuation is weak but has the potential to increase. The shipping companies' price - supporting actions in mid - October have led to a recovery in the futures price valuation. The current basis has converged to a reasonable range [54][55]. - **Demand Side**: - **Trade - Related Macroeconomic Indicators**: The OECD composite leading indicator shows that China's overall export demand in the fourth quarter may be relatively stable but slightly weak [56]. - **Trade Recovery**: Based on past experience, China's export trade data usually increases from mid - November, but there is a possibility of blurred seasonality this year [58]. - **Authoritative Institution Forecasts**: Clarksons has raised the trade volume forecast for the Asia - Europe route in the next two years, but the increase is relatively small [60]. - **Supply Outlook**: The total container ship capacity in 2025 is expected to increase by 6.6% year - on - year, and the capacity of 17000 + container ships is expected to increase by 6.1% year - on - year. The oversupply situation is expected to continue in the fourth quarter [60][63].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a clear industry investment rating but offers trading strategies and potential price ranges for specific contracts [14] Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate index SCFIS increased by 9.6% on June 30, exceeding expectations. The current 08 contract is at a discount to the spot freight rate in early July. Ship - owners' pricing strategies vary, with Maersk adopting a low - price strategy, while the OA and PA alliances may raise prices in mid - July. If the spot freight rate rises in late July, the 2508 contract may experience a small subsidy water market; if the price increase fails, the 2508 contract's neutral valuation is around 1750 points. The strategy is to short the 2510 contract at high prices, with the upper pressure level at 1500 points [11][12][14] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Data - Yesterday, the container shipping index fluctuated weakly. The main 2508 contract closed at 1761.4 points, down 1.92%; the second - main 2510 contract closed at 1339.0 points, up 0.31%. The EC2506 final delivery settlement price was 1919.3 points [11] 2. Freight Index Data - On June 30, the SCFIS index was reported at 2123.24 points, a 9.6% increase. The index converted to spot freight is about $3050/FEU, corresponding to the average FAK of shipping companies in late June. The FAK of shipping companies in early July is between $2900 - $3640/FEU, with an average of about $3400/FEU, corresponding to an SCFIS index of around 2380 points in early July [11] 3. Spot Freight Data - Maersk lowered its price by $200/FEU in the second week of July, while other shipping companies' list prices did not follow the large - scale price cut. The OA alliance's FAK price is between $3500 - $3560/FEU, the PA alliance's list price is between $3300 - $3400/FEU, and MSC's NAC price in early July is $3640/FEU [12] 4. Fundamental Data - In July, there was 1 additional blank sailing and 1 additional pending voyage compared to last week. In August, the number of blank sailings remains at 4, and the number of pending voyages is revised down from 3 to 1. If pending voyages are not considered, the average weekly capacity in August is 30.6 million TEU/week; if considered, it rises to 31 million TEU/week. It is expected that the space for shipping companies to actively reduce capacity in August is relatively limited [13][14] 5. Market Outlook and Strategy - Due to the incomplete start of Christmas cargo exports and concentrated shipments from long - term contract customers, the cargo volume is expected to have a normal seasonal increase in July, with a possible turning point at the end of July. The increase in capacity in July is roughly equivalent to the historical increase in cargo volume. The strategy is to short the 2510 contract at high prices, with the upper pressure level at 1500 points [14]