分布式光储系统

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艾罗能源(688717):户储逐步修复,工商储业务起量将推动新增长
CMS· 2025-07-10 03:01
Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Strong Buy" [3][28]. Core Views - The company has been deeply involved in the distributed solar storage industry for many years and is increasing investments in new products and markets following its 2024 IPO. The residential storage business is recovering after a downturn in the second half of 2023, and the commercial storage business is expected to drive new growth due to the promotion of dynamic electricity pricing in Europe [1][7]. - The company is expected to benefit significantly from Australia's "Cheaper Home Batteries" subsidy program, which has a total scale of AUD 2.3 billion, aimed at reducing upfront costs for residential storage systems [15][7]. - The company has made substantial investments in research and development, with a significant increase in sales personnel and total salary expenses, indicating a strong commitment to expanding its product matrix and market reach [7][8]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to recover from CNY 3,073 million in 2024 to CNY 4,613 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 50% [2][28]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from CNY 204 million in 2024 to CNY 411 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 102% [2][28]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 51.0 in 2024 to 25.3 in 2025, indicating improved valuation as earnings recover [2][28]. Business Performance - The residential storage business is gradually recovering, with European inventory levels returning to normal and emerging markets showing increasing demand [15][7]. - The commercial storage business is expected to see significant growth, particularly in Europe, where the company has established a strong position and is poised to benefit from the introduction of dynamic pricing in Germany starting in 2025 [19][7]. - The company’s sales regions have expanded to over 110 countries, with non-European revenue increasing by over 60% in 2024, indicating successful market diversification [7][8]. Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of CNY 61.32 billion and CNY 70.67 billion in 2026 and 2027, respectively, with a gross margin of approximately 34% [28][39]. - The net profit forecast for 2026 and 2027 is CNY 6.91 billion and CNY 9.22 billion, respectively, indicating a healthy growth trajectory [28][39].