Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Strong Buy" [3][28]. Core Views - The company has been deeply involved in the distributed solar storage industry for many years and is increasing investments in new products and markets following its 2024 IPO. The residential storage business is recovering after a downturn in the second half of 2023, and the commercial storage business is expected to drive new growth due to the promotion of dynamic electricity pricing in Europe [1][7]. - The company is expected to benefit significantly from Australia's "Cheaper Home Batteries" subsidy program, which has a total scale of AUD 2.3 billion, aimed at reducing upfront costs for residential storage systems [15][7]. - The company has made substantial investments in research and development, with a significant increase in sales personnel and total salary expenses, indicating a strong commitment to expanding its product matrix and market reach [7][8]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to recover from CNY 3,073 million in 2024 to CNY 4,613 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 50% [2][28]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from CNY 204 million in 2024 to CNY 411 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 102% [2][28]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 51.0 in 2024 to 25.3 in 2025, indicating improved valuation as earnings recover [2][28]. Business Performance - The residential storage business is gradually recovering, with European inventory levels returning to normal and emerging markets showing increasing demand [15][7]. - The commercial storage business is expected to see significant growth, particularly in Europe, where the company has established a strong position and is poised to benefit from the introduction of dynamic pricing in Germany starting in 2025 [19][7]. - The company’s sales regions have expanded to over 110 countries, with non-European revenue increasing by over 60% in 2024, indicating successful market diversification [7][8]. Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of CNY 61.32 billion and CNY 70.67 billion in 2026 and 2027, respectively, with a gross margin of approximately 34% [28][39]. - The net profit forecast for 2026 and 2027 is CNY 6.91 billion and CNY 9.22 billion, respectively, indicating a healthy growth trajectory [28][39].

证券研究报告 | 行业深度报告 2025 年 07 月 02 日 储能系列报告（11） 欧洲工商储有望迎来需求爆发 中游制造/电力设备及新能源 工商储作为灵活性资源在电力市场的作用日益凸显，欧美成熟的电力市场为其 提供了畅通的盈利模式。过去由于工商业电价较居民更低，造成工商储经济性 要求更高，当前在欧洲装机远低于户储。但得益于产业链价格下行、针对性政 策支持及动态电价的普及，工商储的经济性拐点已经到来，行业有望迎来需求 爆发。针对工商储应用场景对安全、防护及经济的严苛要求，国内主要企业均 已推出的能量密度更高、部署更快、成本更低、安全性更强的一体化方案，有 望充分受益于市场需求的增长。 风险提示：行业政策变动，贸易壁垒加剧，行业竞争加剧等。 重点公司主要财务指标 | 公司简称 | 公司代码 | 市值 | 24EPS | 25EPS | 25PE | PB | 投资评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 阳光电源 | 300274.SZ | 142.4 | 5.32 | 5.85 | 11.7 | 3.5 | 强烈推荐 | | 德业股份 ...