随着夏季气温逐渐升高带来用电负荷攀升，近期全国多个省份密集调整分时电价机制，运用价格 杠杆以引导错峰用电。 江苏省发布的《关于优化工商业分时电价结构促进新能源消纳降低企业用电成本支持经济社会发 展的通知》（下称《通知》）将于6月起正式实施。其中，除了扩大分时电价执行范围、优化工 商业用户分时时段等常规操作之外，还罕见地调整了工商业用户分时电价计价基础，由用户到户 电价为基础进行上下浮动调整为以工商业用户购电价格为基础，并优化峰谷浮动比例。 第一财经记者注意到，此前山东、四川等省已在今年出台政策完善分时电价机制并开始执行，江 西、安徽、贵州等省则在今年4月或5月就政策优化方案向外征求意见。从细节上来看，建立季节 性差异化分时电价机制，进一步拉大峰谷价差并扩大执行范围几乎是各省的共识。 文 | 第一财经 马晨晨 多位行业人士对第一财经记者表示，分时电价改革是大势所趋，对于不同的主体而言影响有所差 异。一方面，它能够鼓励电力用户错峰用电，减轻发电企业和电网的供电压力；同时，执行分时 电价的中小企业能够据此合理安排生产，降低用能成本。但另一方面，部分新能源发电和储能项 目或将面临投资收益率的下滑压力，需要寻求更多价值 ...

Group 1: Overview of Time-of-Use Pricing Adjustments - The recent adjustments to time-of-use pricing mechanisms across various provinces aim to encourage off-peak electricity usage and alleviate supply pressure on power generation companies and the grid [1][2] - Jiangsu Province's new policy will implement a time-of-use pricing structure based on commercial users' purchase prices, optimizing peak and valley floating ratios [1][6] - Other provinces like Shandong and Sichuan have also made significant changes to their time-of-use pricing, with Shandong introducing a five-segment pricing system [2][3] Group 2: Impact on Users and Companies - The adjustments are expected to benefit electricity users by allowing them to manage production schedules more effectively and reduce energy costs [1][4] - However, some renewable energy generation and storage projects may face pressure on investment returns, necessitating new value creation strategies [1][7] - In Shandong, the implementation of time-of-use pricing has led to a significant increase in midday load, enhancing the consumption of renewable energy by 2.3 billion kilowatt-hours [4] Group 3: Specific Changes in Pricing Mechanisms - Jiangsu's new pricing mechanism will see peak prices increase by 80% compared to flat prices, while valley prices will decrease by 65% [6][7] - The adjustments in Jiangsu have resulted in a reduction of the peak-valley price difference, impacting the profitability of user-side energy storage projects [7][8] - The frequency of adjustments in time-of-use pricing is attributed to the increasing electrification of demand and the growing share of renewable energy in the power system [3][9] Group 4: Effects on Power Generation Companies - Power generation companies are also feeling the impact of the new time-of-use pricing, with projections indicating a reduction in net profits due to the adjustments [10][11] - Companies like Xichang Electric Power have reported expected decreases in revenue due to changes in peak and valley pricing structures [11] - The adjustments may not directly alter the grid-connected electricity prices but will influence long-term agreements between supply and demand sides, affecting overall revenue for power generation companies [11]

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the coal prices have reached the cost line for some mines, leading to an expected reduction in production. The supply side is constrained due to regular safety inspections and maintenance on major railways, which is anticipated to support coal prices during the off-season [1]. - The report emphasizes that while electricity demand is entering a low season, the combination of maintenance on railways and reduced import volumes is expected to stabilize coal prices [1]. - The report recommends several companies for investment, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, which are characterized by stable operations and high dividends. It also suggests关注淮北矿业, 平煤股份, and 电投能源 for their undervalued potential [1]. Recent Industry Policies and Developments - The report notes that the Xinjiang coal transportation project has been approved, which will enhance coal transportation capacity significantly, thus reducing logistics costs and supporting energy security [5]. - The report mentions the implementation of a differentiated electricity pricing mechanism in Shandong to optimize power resource allocation [9]. Price Trends - As of April 18, 2025, the prices for various types of coal have shown mixed trends, with some prices remaining stable while others have seen slight declines. For instance, the price for Shanxi's main coking coal remains at 1380 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous week [10][13]. - The report indicates that international coal prices have fluctuated, with Indonesian coal prices decreasing while South African prices have increased [11]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report states that the average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports has decreased by 4.10% week-on-week, while the outflow has dropped significantly by 20.04% due to adverse weather conditions [22]. - The coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports has increased by 6.93% week-on-week, indicating a buildup of stock amid declining demand [22]. Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs have risen by 6.95% week-on-week, reflecting increased transportation expenses [32]. - International shipping rates have shown mixed trends, with some routes experiencing slight increases while others have decreased [32]. Company Valuation - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalization, and earnings per share (EPS) projections for the coming years [36].