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华能国际(600011):2024年业绩符合预期 分红水平稳中有升
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-03-31 06:31
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 245.6 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.1 billion yuan, an increase of 20%, aligning with expectations. The dividend per share was 0.27 yuan, up 35% year-on-year, with a payout ratio of 58.9%, which is better than anticipated [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The coal-fired power segment saw a year-on-year decrease in benchmark coal price by 9%, leading to a recovery in pre-tax profit to 0.02 yuan per kWh. The utilization hours for coal power decreased by 2.3% to 4,285 hours, with electricity prices down 2.2%, but significant reductions in fuel costs helped pre-tax profits recover to 7.2 billion yuan compared to 0.43 billion yuan in 2023 [1] - In the renewable energy sector, pre-tax profits for wind and solar power were 0.18 yuan and 0.15 yuan per kWh, respectively, with declines of 1% and 20% year-on-year. Solar power was affected by electricity price pressures, although its profit remained above industry levels [1] - The overseas business reported a pre-tax profit of 2.7 billion yuan from Singapore, down 38% year-on-year, while profits from Pakistan reached a record high of 0.97 billion yuan, up 61% [2] Group 2: Future Development Trends - The company plans capital expenditures of 69.4 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12%, primarily driven by solar power installations. The planned installed capacity for wind and solar power is 2.6 GW and 6.7 GW, respectively, with a total of approximately 10 GW of new renewable energy capacity expected [3] - The company anticipates a significant reduction in long-term contract electricity prices, with a projected increase of 5% over the benchmark price, down 8 percentage points year-on-year. However, early-year coal prices have decreased unexpectedly, alleviating some electricity price pressures [3] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to a greater-than-expected decline in coal prices, the company has raised its profit forecast for 2025 by 2.8% to 11.5 billion yuan. The revenue is expected to increase by 1.4% year-on-year to 243.9 billion yuan, with net profit projected to rise by 9.4% to 12.6 billion yuan [4] - The target prices remain unchanged at 10.49 yuan for A-shares and 5.35 HKD for Hong Kong shares, indicating an upside potential of 54.5% and 19.7% from current prices, respectively. The current trading multiples for A-shares are 12.4x and 11.0x P/E for 2025E and 2026E, while for Hong Kong shares, they are 7.6x and 6.7x P/E [4]