上 市 公 司 食品饮料 2025 年 08 月 23 日 金徽酒 (603919) ——业绩符合预期，产品结构继续提升 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： 2025 年 08 月 22 日 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 20.11 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 24.18/15.47 | | 市净率 | 2.9 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 2.49 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 10,201 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,825.76/12,166.06 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 06 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 6.65 | | 资产负债率% | 29.34 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 507/507 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 08-22 09-22 10-22 11-22 12-22 01-22 02-22 03-22 04-22 05-22 06 ...

机构：中金公司 研究员：吴其坤/冯启斌/郑学建/杨鑫 1H25 业绩符合市场预期 建议关注联营企业中航信移动科技（"航旅纵横"经营方）经营动向。根据公司2024 年年报，截至2024 年末公司持有中航信移动科技有限公司20.66%的股权。根据中国民用航空网，航旅纵横App 于7 月正式 上线"民航官方直销平台"功能，用户可在单一界面完成多家航司直销机票的比价和购买；航旅纵横作为 平台方，不收取机票代理费。我们建议继续关注近期航旅纵横用户活跃度变化，以及对其商业化的潜在 影响。 盈利预测与估值 我们维持公司2025、2026 年盈利预测23.27 亿元、25.81 亿元不变。当前股价对应13.6 倍2025 年市盈率 和12.1 倍2026 年市盈率。维持跑赢行业评级和目标价13 港元不变（对应15 倍2025 年市盈率和13 倍 2026 年市盈率），较当前股价有10.2%的上行空间。 风险 民航需求不及预期；成本增长高于预期；大额减值准备计提。 营业成本同比有所下滑；回款情况改善。1H25 公司营业成本同比下滑4.2%，主要受益于：1）由于部 分固定资产和无形资产已完成折旧摊销，折旧摊销成本同比下滑17.6 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with total revenue of 14.796 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 35.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.344 billion yuan, down 45.3% year-on-year [6] - The report predicts that the net profit for 2025-2027 will be 5.03 billion yuan, 5.05 billion yuan, and 5.39 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -24.6%, 0.4%, and 6.8% [6] - The company’s dividend policy indicates a minimum annual dividend of 7 billion yuan for 2025-2026, implying a dividend yield of 6.5% [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 28.876 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -12.8% [5] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 72% for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 10.1% [5] - The company reported a net profit margin of 18.95% in Q2 2025, a decrease of 9.63 percentage points year-on-year [6] Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, the revenue from liquor sales was 14.494 billion yuan, down 35.4% year-on-year, with sales volume at 78,200 tons, a decrease of 32.4% [6] - The average price per ton of liquor was 185,000 yuan, down 4.5% year-on-year [6] - Revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 12.67 billion yuan, down 36.5%, while ordinary liquor revenue was 1.84 billion yuan, down 27.2% [6] Cash Flow and Liabilities - The net cash flow from operating activities in Q2 2025 was -1.92 billion yuan, with cash received from sales down 47.5% year-on-year [6] - The company's contract liabilities and other current liabilities at the end of Q2 2025 amounted to 6.101 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous quarter [6]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 78.584 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.614 billion yuan, up 22.2% year-on-year [1] - In Q4 2024, the revenue was 22.416 billion yuan, down 11.0% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 239.2% to 1.343 billion yuan [1] - For Q1 2025, the revenue reached 15.858 billion yuan, a 3.8% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.127 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 181.0% [1] Financial Performance - The company delivered 93 civil vessels in 2024, achieving 112.74% of the annual target, with a total weight of 7.2134 million deadweight tons [2] - The gross profit margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 10.2% and 12.8% respectively, with Q1 2025 showing a significant increase due to the delivery of high-priced vessels [2] - The net profit margin improved to 4.6% in 2024 and 7.1% in Q1 2025, reflecting year-on-year increases of 0.65 and 4.48 percentage points respectively [2] Order Backlog and Structure - As of the end of 2024, the company had a backlog of 322 civil vessel orders, totaling 216.962 billion yuan, along with 63 repair orders worth 9.18 billion yuan [3] - The order structure has been optimized, with the company holding a leading position globally in various vessel types, including container ships and VLGCs [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged, with the current stock price corresponding to a P/E ratio of 16.4x for 2025 and 13.0x for 2026 [3] - The target price has been adjusted down by 12.8% to 41.00 yuan, reflecting a potential upside of 40.0% from the current stock price [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is in line with expectations, with a stable growth target for 2025. The company achieved a total revenue of 36.011 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 12.243 billion yuan, up 17.29% year-on-year [6][8] - The company aims to maintain steady revenue growth in 2025, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 expected to grow by 6.1%, 7.9%, and 9.1% respectively [6][8] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue forecast for 2025 is 38.328 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.4% [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected at 12.994 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.1% [5] - Earnings per share for 2025 is estimated at 10.65 yuan [5] - The gross profit margin for 2025 is expected to be 76.2% [5] - Return on equity (ROE) for 2025 is projected at 31.2% [5] - The company reported a total revenue of 16.523 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 7.72% [6][8] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, the revenue from mid-to-high-end liquor was 26.532 billion yuan, up 14.35% year-on-year, while other liquor categories generated 9.342 billion yuan, up 9.4% year-on-year [6] - The company achieved a revenue of 135 billion yuan in its home province, with a year-on-year growth of 11.72%, and 224 billion yuan from outside the province, up 13.81% year-on-year [6] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The operating cash flow for 2024 was 12.172 billion yuan, a significant increase of 68.47% year-on-year [7] - The company reported a net profit margin of 34.03% for 2024, an increase of 1.27 percentage points year-on-year [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company's performance in Q1 2025 met expectations, with a focus on the future sales performance of its whiskey products [7] - The pre-mixed beverage business is under pressure, while the whiskey business is in its early stages and requires monitoring for future sales [7] - The company has a strong brand advantage in the pre-mixed beverage industry and has made significant progress in its product matrix since 2022 [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 was 3,048 million, a decrease of 6.6% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 719 million, down 11.2% [6][7] - For Q1 2025, total revenue was 737 million, a decline of 8.1% year-on-year, but net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 7.0% to 181 million [7] - The company forecasts net profits of 809 million, 910 million, and 1,022 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.6%, 12.4%, and 12.3% [7][6] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 69.67%, an increase of 2.97 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw material prices [7] Business Performance - The pre-mixed beverage and flavoring business generated revenues of 2,677 million and 337 million respectively in 2024, with year-on-year changes of -7.17% and +6.3% [7] - The whiskey business began contributing revenue in Q1 2025, with the launch of "Bailide" blended whiskey [7] - The company is optimistic about the future growth of its whiskey business, contingent on successful sales operations and positive dealer order intentions [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Dong'e Ejiao is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with total revenue of 1.719 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.24%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 425 million yuan, up 20.25% year-on-year [9] - The company's product lines, particularly the Ejiao series, are experiencing steady growth, with various marketing strategies being employed to enhance sales and reach target demographics [9] - The company has initiated a mid-term dividend distribution, with a high dividend payout ratio of 99.7% in 2024, reflecting its commitment to returning value to shareholders [9] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.864 billion, 2.215 billion, and 2.565 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19, 16, and 14 [9] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 5.921 billion yuan in 2024 to 8.918 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.47% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 1.557 billion yuan in 2024 to 2.565 billion yuan in 2027, with a CAGR of approximately 15.83% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to rise from 2.42 yuan in 2024 to 3.98 yuan in 2027 [1] - The company's return on equity (ROE) improved to 4.04% in Q1 2025, with a gross margin of 73.62% and a net profit margin of 24.73% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the year 2024, indicating challenges in the steel industry and a shift towards growth in new materials [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.19 billion, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 140 million, down 45.5% [2]. - The cash flow from operating activities was 430 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.4% [2]. - For Q4, the company reported revenue of 1.19 billion, a decline of 16.4%, with net profit at 10 million, down 69.7% [2]. Group 2: Segment Performance - The steel refractory materials segment generated revenue of 4.43 billion, down 7.8%, while the new materials segment saw a significant increase of 40.3%, reaching 820 million [3]. - The new materials division successfully entered multiple clients' approved supplier lists, including Greenmeadow, and has begun bulk supply of high-efficiency sedimentation agents [3]. - Domestic revenue was 3.74 billion, down 6.6%, while overseas revenue was 1.45 billion, down 1.2% [3]. Group 3: Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 was 19.0%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points, attributed to weak downstream demand and intensified competition [4]. - The total expense ratio increased to 16.9%, up 2.5 percentage points, with sales, management, financial, and R&D expense ratios rising [4]. - The net profit margin for 2024 was 2.5%, down 2.1 percentage points, while Q4 net profit margin was 0.9%, down 2.3 percentage points [4].