Core Insights - The Shanghai second-hand housing market is showing contradictory signals in September 2025, with 91% of neighborhoods reducing listing prices while transaction volumes are stabilizing and increasing [1][2][3] - The "8.25" policy implemented on August 25, 2025, is gradually influencing the market dynamics, particularly benefiting suburban housing demand [1][11] Listing Prices - Over 90% of neighborhoods have seen a decrease in listing prices, with an average decline of 13.6% over the past year [3] - The listing price index dropped from a peak of 90.3 in September 2024 to 78 in September 2025, indicating a significant downward trend [3] Transaction Activity - The total transaction volume of second-hand homes exceeded 18,000 units in September, marking a 3% increase from the previous month [1] - The proportion of neighborhoods with rising transaction prices increased to 45% in September, up from 41% in August [5] Price Negotiation - The negotiation space for second-hand homes narrowed from 19% in August to 15% in September, indicating a convergence in price expectations between buyers and sellers [8] Demand Segmentation - The increase in transaction activity is primarily driven by the rising prices in first-time buyer neighborhoods, with 47% of these areas experiencing price increases [15] - The policy changes have activated demand from first-time buyers and reduced purchasing costs, leading to a notable increase in market activity [12][11] Regional Performance - The suburban areas, particularly Jinshan and Fengxian districts, have seen significant increases in transaction volumes, with Fengxian accounting for 5.05% of total transactions in September [15] - The majority of neighborhoods with rental yields above 2% are also located in suburban areas, reinforcing the notion that first-time buyers are the key drivers of price stabilization [18][21] Future Outlook - The ongoing trend of "price for volume" is expected to continue, but significant price variations are emerging across different districts, indicating a complex market landscape [24] - The ability of mid-to-high-end neighborhoods to gain traction will depend on new listings and the introduction of quality products in the new housing market [24]