二手房市场有哪些边际变化？20260226 摘要 2025 年二手房市场呈现供给压力加大和价格加速下跌的特征，挂牌量 较年初增长 9%，重点城市挂牌价格指数全年下降 14%，以价换量策略 持续。 2025 年四季度重点城市二手房挂牌量开始下降，一线城市降幅大于二 线城市，但深圳因取消限售政策影响，挂牌量显著增加，成都亦有相似 特征。 2025 年四季度二手房成交量同比明显下降，但绝对值维持稳定。2026 年 1 月成交量环比回升，同比实现增长，但 2 月受春节影响季节性下滑。 2026 年"小阳春"成交表现预计良好，主要基于 2025 年全年二手房 带看维持高位和节后成交爬坡的支撑。 2026 年初二手房价格跌幅收窄，但更高频数据显示挂牌价格出现环比 回升，该变化可能受成交量偏少影响，仍需进一步跟踪。 量价边际改善由外部政策和市场内部供需关系修复共同推动，卖方惜售 和主动撤牌，低总价房源更接近买方可支付区间。 行业调整进入"下半场"，阶段性出现自发修复，但系统性止跌仍依赖 就业、收入等预期改善，后续需结合宏观经济表现观察。 Q&A 2025 年重点 20 城二手房市场的量、供给与价格分别呈现何种特征？ 202 ...

Group 1: Financial Data and Trends - As of the end of January 2026, the total social financing scale was 449.11 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2% [1] - The broad money supply (M2) increased by 9.0% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the nominal GDP growth, supporting stable growth in the real economy [1] - In January, resident deposits decreased by 3.39 trillion yuan year-on-year, while non-bank financial institutions saw an increase of 2.56 trillion yuan in deposits [1] Group 2: Robotics Rental Industry - The Chinese robot rental platform, Qingtian Rental, reported over 1,000 orders received for the Spring Festival period, with total orders expected to exceed 5,000, representing an 80% increase in overall GMV [2] - Qingtian Rental is implementing a "City Partner Strategy" to address delivery challenges due to explosive growth and is maintaining a monthly financing rhythm to adapt to market changes [2] Group 3: Beer Industry Performance - Anheuser-Busch InBev's Budweiser Asia and Heineken both reported declines in sales revenue, net profit, and volume for 2025, indicating a common trend of underperformance [3][4] - Heineken's 2025 net revenue was 28.75 billion euros (approximately 235.53 billion yuan), with a net profit of 1.88 billion euros (approximately 15.44 billion yuan), both showing consecutive declines [3] - Budweiser Asia's revenue for 2025 was 5.764 billion USD (approximately 40.31 billion yuan), down about 11.59% year-on-year, with a net profit of approximately 489 million USD (about 3.42 billion yuan), marking a 35.47% decline [3] Group 4: Real Estate Market - In January, the second-hand residential sales prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, with specific declines in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [9] - The price adjustments in the second-hand housing market have been ongoing for over four years, with recent data indicating a narrowing of the decline, suggesting improved price-performance ratios for buyers [9] - Notably, cities like Yangzhou and Zhanjiang experienced a month-on-month increase in second-hand residential prices in January [9] Group 5: Gold Market Regulation - Shenzhen's financial management authorities issued a set of ten prohibitive measures to regulate gold market activities, following previous incidents and market volatility [11] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange also announced adjustments to margin requirements and trading limits for gold and silver contracts to manage risks during the Spring Festival [11] - As of February 13, the spot gold price fluctuated between 4,900 and 5,000 USD per ounce, down approximately 10% from a previous high of 5,595 USD [11]

二手房市场走出独立行情。 2026年1月，在传统楼市"淡季"，20个重点城市成交面积环比上涨10%。 不仅仅是1月，重点20城二手房成交已连续三个月上升。 01 从核心城市低总价房源挂牌情况来看，总价300万以下新增挂牌量自2025年下半年起已逐月减少。其中部分城市低总价房源价格开始"止跌"。 2025年底，住建部会议指出，要把新房市场和二手房市场作为一个整体来看待。 二手房市场的稳定，对于整体市场回稳有着非常重要的意义。 2026年1月，二手房市场取得"开门红"。 数据显示，2026年1月，重点20个城市二手房成交面积1483万平方米，环比上涨10%，同比上涨25%。 在传统1-2月楼市"淡季"，二手房市场的逆势回温成为观察当前市场供需关系的关键窗口。 从成交趋势来看，2025年11月至今，重点20城市二手房成交面积已连续三个月环比上升。 2025年全年，在经历3月"小阳春"后，重点20城二手房成交规模持续缩量，一直到第四季度出现筑底趋势。在10月触底之后，成交规模持续回升，当前达 2023年1月至今相对高位。 从价格来看，大部分城市二手房"以价换量"依然是主流，但核心城市二手房房价跌幅收缓，整体开始趋稳。 ...

最近一段时间，大家可能听到了不少北京楼市"回暖"的说法。我们也从不少业内人士以及一线经纪人员口中听到他们的感受，他们也觉得北京楼市近期确 实温度提高了。 今天进入2月了，1月北京的成交数据也出来了，那就让我们来看一下楼市是否回暖了。 01 根据住建委的网签数据，1月北京二手房网签量为15082套。这个成交量是个什么水平？其实如果只是环比上月（也就是去年12月），1月的成交量并没有 上涨，反而是下降了约12%。 但不能这么简单比较，每年的12月，因为年底是集中签约的时期，月网签量通常比较大。 如果要是同比去年1月，那么今年1月的成交量上涨了约21%。从市场一线的体感上看，不少中介机构和人员也都表示，二手房的带看量明显多了，交易量 也多了。 另外还有一个数据，就是最近一段时间北京的二手房挂牌量也回落了。目前北京二手房挂牌量大约14万套，相比之前2024年的高点下降了2万多套。 02 为何1月北京二手房市场会出现这样的变化？ 首先还是政策的影响。去年12月24日北京市出台楼市新政，优化非京籍购房社保、纳税年限，商贷利率不再区分首套、二套房，公积金二套房贷首付下调 等。而后在1月，财政部、税务总局、住房城乡建设部又出 ...

根据美联物业分行统计，上周末(1月31日至2月1日)香港10大二手指标屋苑录得约20宗买卖成交，较上 周末约12宗急升约67%，并创2024年3月23至24日周末约21宗后约22个月高位，并连续第6个周末维持双 位数的活跃水平。另外，根据该行统计，1月全月10大屋苑共录约252宗买卖，较去年12月约205宗升约 22.9%，亦创自2024年3月录约359宗后的22个月新高，并为2026年楼市开好局。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Beijing second-hand housing market is showing signs of recovery despite a decline in transaction volume in January 2026, with a total of 15,082 units signed, indicating a potential upward trend in the market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In January 2026, the net signing volume of second-hand residential properties in Beijing was 15,082 units, reflecting a decline both year-on-year and month-on-month [1] - The January figure represents a drop of over 12% compared to December 2025, which had a signing volume of 17,200 units [1] - The decline in January is attributed to seasonal factors, including the traditional Spring Festival holiday and the end-of-year rush effect leading to temporary over-exhaustion [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Since November 2025, the Beijing second-hand housing market has maintained a relatively high transaction volume for three consecutive months [1] - The market remains active in early 2026, with transaction volumes showing a continuous increase over the past two weeks [1] - The recent recovery in transaction volume is believed to be influenced by policy measures and a "self-repair" characteristic in pricing, as evidenced by a significant reduction in the number of listings [1] Group 3: Listing Data - The number of second-hand housing listings in Beijing has decreased significantly, currently around 144,000 units, which is over 20,000 units lower than previous market peaks [1]

2026年开年，北京二手房市场平稳开局。据北京商报记者统计，1月北京二手房网签量达15082套，连续 三个月站稳1.4万套关口，市场企稳态势巩固。从市场表现来看，入学需求的释放推动部分区域客源心 态发生转变，此前持观望态度的购房者加速入市，相关片区单月成交量连续三个月保持在60—70套区 间。与此同时，在以刚需房源为成交主力的区域，随着高性价比刚需房源供应减少，改善型房源的成交 量出现回升。 连续三个月站上1.4万套关口 北京商报记者统计数据显示，2026年1月北京二手房网签量达15082套，至此，北京二手房网签量已连续 三个月稳定在1.4万套以上。 具体来看，北京二手房市场自2025年11月起持续回暖，2025年11月至2026年1月，二手房网签量依次为 14446套、17200套、15082套。 合硕机构首席分析师郭毅表示，从需求端来看，市场成交已连续三个月稳定在15000套左右的水平， 2026年1月一线城市成交更是连续三周突破4000套，预示楼市"小阳春"期间网签量有望维持高位，市场 成交将实现稳健企稳。 成交量稳定的背后，业主定价趋于理性是重要因素之一。石景山区西黄村片区某头部中介经纪人陈少华 向北 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent recovery in the second-hand housing market in certain cities is attributed to simultaneous supply and demand factors, with a notable decrease in listings and an increase in transaction volumes and prices [2][3]. Group 1: Supply Factors - The decline in second-hand housing listings is influenced by seasonal factors, as sellers typically withdraw listings before the Spring Festival, anticipating a better market post-holiday [3]. - Additionally, the rapid decline in second-hand housing prices in the latter half of last year has led some homeowners to withdraw listings to protect their asset values or switch to rental options, exacerbating the seasonal impact [3]. Group 2: Demand Factors - The demand side has seen a shift, with delayed interest in school district properties due to last year's price drops, leading to a concentrated release of demand in the first quarter as school enrollment requirements approach [3]. - There has been a significant increase in the transaction speed of lower-priced properties, with homes priced around 3 million in Shanghai making up over 50% of transactions, indicating a resurgence of first-time buyers in major cities [3]. Group 3: Price Stability and Market Dynamics - The potential stabilization of second-hand housing prices hinges on the sustainability of the decline in listings, as experts anticipate an increase in listings post-Spring Festival [4]. - The current market recovery is characterized by a lack of explicit policy intervention, suggesting that genuine demand is being gradually stimulated, with both first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade their homes actively participating in the market [4]. - The market is undergoing a self-regulation process to rebalance supply and demand, indicating a positive trend towards a healthier second-hand housing market [4].

Core Viewpoint - The resilience of Beijing's second-hand housing market is gradually becoming evident, with transaction volumes stabilizing and showing signs of recovery following recent policy adjustments [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 29, the net signed transactions for second-hand homes in Beijing reached 14,528 units, with an estimated total for the month expected to exceed 15,000 units, marking two consecutive months of transactions above 14,000 units [3][4]. - The average daily net signed transactions post-policy implementation (December 25-28) were 511 units, indicating a stable market performance [3]. - The inventory of second-hand homes in Beijing is currently stable at over 150,000 units, showing a significant decrease compared to the beginning of the year, with monthly transaction volumes maintaining a stable level of around 10% [3][4]. Group 2: Buyer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The market is currently characterized by a rational adjustment in expectations from both buyers and sellers, with a shift from significant discounts to minor negotiations [4][5]. - The recent policy changes have stimulated interest among potential buyers, particularly first-time homebuyers, leading to increased inquiries and visits to properties [6][8]. - The adjustment in mortgage rates and down payment requirements has lowered the entry barriers for buyers, significantly reducing their financial burden [6][7]. Group 3: Demand Factors - The release of policies catering to families with multiple children and the easing of purchase restrictions have aligned with the housing needs of buyers, particularly those with educational requirements for their children [9][10]. - There has been a notable increase in inquiries from parents seeking homes in areas with good educational resources, particularly as the school enrollment season approaches [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from the Ministry of Finance outlines new regulations regarding the value-added tax (VAT) on the sale of residential properties by individuals, effective from January 1, 2026, which introduces a 3% VAT for properties sold within two years of purchase and exempts properties sold after two years from VAT [1]. Group 1 - Individuals selling residential properties purchased within two years will be subject to a full VAT rate of 3% [1]. - Properties sold after being owned for two years will be exempt from VAT [1]. - The new policy will come into effect on January 1, 2026, and will replace previous regulations regarding the transition from business tax to VAT [1].