大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属早报 2025 年 08 月 26 日 银河投研黑色与有色 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 研究员：丁祖超 期货从业证号：F03105917 投资咨询证号：Z0018259 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号：F03113636 投资咨询证号：Z0018817 黑色金属每日早盘观察 现货价格：网价上海地区螺纹 3310 元（+320），北京地区 3250（+10），上海地区 热卷 3430 元（+30），天津地区热卷 3380 元（+20）。 【逻辑分析】 上周五夜盘黑色板块维持震荡偏弱走势，25 日建筑钢材成交为 11.11 万吨。上周 钢联数据公布，钢材继续复产，其中螺纹继续减产而热卷增产，五大材整体累库，但 累库速度放缓；近期钢材出口仍然存在较强韧性，热轧表需仍然偏强；而前一周资源 集中到货，库存明显累积，上周有所缓解，导致建材需求底部反弹。目前钢材需求出 现一定修复，铁水产量仍高，叠加钢材出口强劲，使得钢价存在支撑。而随着阅兵临 近，预计下周后半周左右铁水将开始减产，改善钢材供应压力；近期福建地区煤矿发 生事故，抬升市 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-08-26 股市趋势上⾏，股债联动弱化 股指期货：板块⾼低切换不改趋势上⾏。 股指期权：情绪持续乐观，买⼊看涨仍强。 国债期货：债市情绪回暖。 股指期货方面，板块高低切换不改趋势上行。周四沪指高开震荡， 盘中续创新高，量能基本持平。热点板块出现轮动，一是反内卷举措继续 发酵，叠加头部猪企中报成本下降、增加分红，催化农林牧渔、石油石化 行业领涨；二是中国香港的稳定币发行拉开序幕，催化跨境支付板块走 强。资金轮动下，前期热门板块出现回撤，机械设备、电力设备、国防军 工行业领跌，涨停板数量减少，高位股掀跌停潮。由于成交额维持高位， 杠杆资金继续流入，板块切换不改整体上行趋势，我们建议继续持有IM多 单，享受成长风格超额。 股指期权方面，情绪持续乐观，买入看涨仍强。昨日标的市场延续上 周乐观情绪，各品种全线上涨，双创品种仍有上行动能。期权市场成交额 破200亿大关，相比前一交易日上升36.72%，交易型资金进一步活跃。 期权市场各情绪指标均给出乐观预期：持仓量PCR极端高位，且部分品种 上方仍有一定空间；比值PCR各品种继续下 ...

报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 8 月 26 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 8 月 25 日，万得全 A 跳空高开后震荡上行，午间有所回落，随后再度走高， 收涨 1.80%，超 6 成个股上涨；指数现货方面，沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中 证 1000 收盘分别上涨 2.08%、2.09%、1.89%、1.56%，中小盘股表现更优。指数 期货表现弱于现货，IF、IH、IC、IM 主力合约分别收涨 1.83%、1.79%、1.46%、 0.87%（按前一交易日收盘价为基准计算 ...

没有意外，紧随北京， 上海的限购政策进一步打开。 8月25日，上海市住房城乡建设管理委、市房屋管理局、市财政局、市税务局、人民银行上海市分行、 市公积金管理中心等六部门联合印发《关于优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》（以下简称《通 知》），包括调减住房限购、优化住房公积金、优化个人住房信贷以及完善个人住房房产税等政策。 《通知》自2025年8月26日起施行。 公积金额度提高 "825新政"的四点内容 1 限购优化，外环外不限购 符合条件的居民家庭，沪籍家庭/单身人士，外环外不限购，外环内限购2套（维持不变）； 非户籍家庭/成年单身人士，自购房之日起，连续缴纳社保/个税满一年，外环外不限购；外环内（维持 不变），连续缴纳社保/个税满三年及以上，限购一套； 2 首套最高的额度，从160万提高到184万，多子女家庭，从192万提高到216万； 二套最高贷款额度从130万提高到149.5万； 支持提取公积金支付首付款、允许"又提又贷"； 3 商贷利率不区分首套、二套，都按首套算 在利率定价机制安排方面，不再区分首套住房和二套住房； 4 房产税政策完善 非沪籍家庭首套免征；二套及以上，免60㎡/人。 六点解读 1 8月 ...

中国人民银行上海总部8月25日发布的公告还明确，银行业金融机构应根据本机构经营状况、客户风险状况 等因素，合理确定每笔贷款的具体利率水平。 中国人民银行上海总部8月25日发布公告称，对上海市商业性个人住房贷款利率定价机制进行调整。在利率 定价机制安排方面，上海市商业性个人住房贷款利率不再区分首套住房和二套住房。同一天早些时候，上海 市住建委等六部门宣布了调减住房限购、优化住房公积金、优化个人住房信贷以及完善个人住房房产税等政 策。 对此，上海易居房地产研究院副院长严跃进对证券时报记者表示，该条政策赋予了银行一定的自主定价权， 有助于银行根据实际情况灵活调整策略，优化信贷资源配置，并精准地评估风险、提高风险管理水平。 "到了传统'金九银十'的阶段，信贷政策必须给力。尤其是外环外在符合条件下不限购房套数的政策，更需要 房贷政策的有力支持。"严跃进说。 8月25日上午，上海住建委等部门联合发布的《关于优化调整本市房地产政策措施的通知》（简称《通 知》）提到，调减住房限购政策，符合条件居民家庭在外环外购房不限套数。对符合上海市住房购买条件的 居民家庭，包括上海市户籍居民家庭、在上海市连续缴纳社会保险或个人所得税满1年 ...

8月25日，"房可圆"微信公号发文称，为更好满足居民刚性住房需求和多样化改善性住房需求，促进房 地产市场平稳健康发展，8月25日，上海市住房城乡建设管理委、市房屋管理局、市财政局、市税务 局、人民银行上海市分行、市公积金管理中心等六部门联合印发《关于优化调整本市房地产政策措施的 通知》（以下简称《通知》），包括调减住房限购、优化住房公积金、优化个人住房信贷以及完善个人 住房房产税等政策。《通知》自2025年8月26日起施行。 一、调减住房限购政策 为更好满足居民改善性需求，促进宜居安居、职住平衡，《通知》明确进一步调减住房限购政策。一是 符合条件居民家庭在外环外购房不限套数。对符合本市住房购买条件的居民家庭，包括本市户籍居民家 庭、在本市连续缴纳社会保险或个人所得税满1年及以上的非本市户籍居民家庭，在外环外购买住房不 限套数，包括新建商品住房和二手住房。二是成年单身人士按照居民家庭执行住房限购政策。 按照上述规定，沪籍居民家庭和沪籍成年单身人士，在外环外购买住房不限套数；在外环内限购2套住 房。非沪籍居民家庭和非沪籍成年单身人士，自购房之日前在本市连续缴纳社会保险或个人所得税满1 年及以上的，在外环外购买住房 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant policy shift in Beijing's real estate market after a prolonged period of stagnation, with new measures introduced on August 8, 2023, aimed at optimizing and adjusting real estate policies [1] - The adjustments made in 2025 are characterized as a substantial acceleration compared to the more cautious changes in 2024, indicating a more aggressive approach to stimulate the market [1] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the potential impact of these policy changes on the Beijing real estate market, suggesting that they could lead to a revitalization of the sector [1] - The announcement was made by the Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Housing Provident Fund Management Center, indicating a coordinated effort by local authorities to address market challenges [1]

Group 1 - Beijing Beichen Industrial Co., Ltd. (00588) experienced a significant stock price increase, rising over 20% at one point and currently up 16.09% to HKD 1.01, with a trading volume of HKD 69.8964 million [1] - The surge in stock price is attributed to a new policy announced by the Beijing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission and the Beijing Housing Provident Fund Management Center, which will eliminate restrictions on the number of homes that eligible families can purchase outside the Fifth Ring Road starting from August 9, 2025 [1] - The policy adjustment includes changes to the housing provident fund regulations in four key areas, which may positively impact the real estate market in Beijing [1] Group 2 - Beichen Industrial's main business activities include real estate development, exhibition (including hotels), and commercial properties, with a focus on deepening regional development and expanding into new cities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The new policy implemented by Beijing's housing authorities allows residents to purchase an unlimited number of homes outside the Fifth Ring Road, which is expected to significantly boost the real estate market in that area starting from August 9, 2025 [1][3]. Market Reaction - The first weekend following the announcement saw a notable increase in the number of visitors to new housing projects outside the Fifth Ring Road, with one project reporting over 50 units reserved on the first day [1][2]. - Sales consultants reported a surge in customer traffic, with some projects receiving up to 300 groups of visitors in a single day [2][3]. Sales Performance - According to analysts, the increase in customer visits ranged from 40% to 200% compared to previous weekends, although actual purchase conversions increased by only 20% to 30% [3][4]. - The new policy is expected to attract more buyers to the market, particularly for new homes outside the Fifth Ring Road, leading to a potential sales peak [3][4]. Policy Implications - The removal of purchase limits for eligible families is anticipated to support market recovery and improve the balance between living and working locations [4]. - The adjustment in policies, including an increase in the maximum public housing fund loan for second homes from 600,000 to 1,000,000 yuan, is expected to alleviate financial pressure on families looking to upgrade their housing [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments to housing purchase and housing provident fund policies in Beijing aim to stimulate the real estate market and align with the city's overall urban planning strategy, marking the third relaxation of housing purchase restrictions since last year [1][3]. Policy Adjustments - The new policy removes the limit on the number of properties that can be purchased outside the Fifth Ring Road, allowing families to buy an unlimited number of homes in that area. Within the Fifth Ring Road, families can purchase up to two homes [3]. - The adjustments reflect a shift from allowing one additional purchase outside the Fifth Ring Road to completely removing the purchase cap, indicating a response to current supply and demand dynamics in Beijing's real estate market [3][5]. Housing Fund Policy Changes - The housing provident fund policy has been adjusted in four key areas, primarily relaxing the criteria for recognizing first-time home purchases. Individuals with no property can now apply for provident fund loans as first-time buyers, even if they have previously used such loans [7]. - This change allows eligible buyers to reduce their down payment by 10% to 15% when using combined loans for purchasing homes [7]. Market Impact - In the first half of this year, the transaction volume for new and second-hand homes in Beijing increased by 24.4% and 18.4% respectively compared to the same period last year, indicating a positive market trend [8]. - Following the implementation of the new policies, developers have actively promoted the changes to boost buyer confidence, with many showcasing the benefits of the new regulations in their marketing materials [10]. Buyer Sentiment - The adjustments to the housing provident fund have directly benefited buyers, as seen in the case of individuals who can now access higher loan amounts, thus enhancing their purchasing power [10]. - Additional social policies, such as childcare subsidies and free preschool education, have also contributed to a more favorable environment for potential homebuyers, further boosting their confidence in the market [12].