刚需性

Search documents
当市场分化时,如何找到那些能穿越周期的赛道?
吴晓波频道· 2025-03-19 16:44
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant valuation disparity in the A-share market, highlighting the need for investors to identify core industries that can consistently create value amidst market fluctuations [2][3]. Group 1: Demand Characteristics - The concept of "just demand" is crucial for identifying core industries, focusing on whether the target market meets essential, high-frequency, or addictive needs [3][4]. - Industries serving C-end consumers include essential needs like food and entertainment, while B-end services focus on helping businesses save or earn money [4]. - Some industries may appear to have strong demand but are actually based on non-essential or misleading needs, such as blind boxes or unregulated financial products [3][5]. Group 2: Scarcity and Competitive Advantage - Scarcity, or the "moat" concept, is a key standard for assessing core industries, emphasizing the need for unique advantages to ensure profitability [5][6]. - Industries with high demand but low entry barriers, like the restaurant sector, often struggle with profitability, while sectors like high-end liquor benefit from strong brand advantages [6][9]. - Three types of moats are identified: strong moats (brand IP), moderate moats (capacity cycles and regulatory barriers), and weak moats (talent and channel resources) [9][12][15]. Group 3: Growth Potential - Growth potential requires standardization and replicability within industries, which is essential for scaling and sustained growth [16][17]. - Industries that undergo structural upgrades can experience growth even in declining markets, as seen in the liquor industry from 2016 to 2021 [21][22]. Group 4: Stability and Risk Assessment - Stability involves evaluating the overall risk of an industry, considering factors like policy, geopolitical, and market risks [24]. - Industries such as gaming and education are heavily influenced by regulatory changes, while others may face risks from supply chain volatility or consumer sentiment [24].