（3）需求稳定或增长。 时寒冰/文 物以稀为贵——以稀缺性为目标，是获取高盈利的捷径——但必须考虑时间因素，时间是成就、强化稀 缺性的帮手，同时也是摧毁、击败稀缺性的利器。 经济学上给稀缺性下的定义是这样的：稀缺性是指在获得人们所需要的资源方面存在的局限性，即资源 的供给相对需求在数量上的不足。资源的稀缺性可以进一步划分为绝对稀缺和相对稀缺。绝对稀缺是指 资源的总需求超过总供给；相对稀缺是指资源的总供给能够满足总需求，但分布不均衡会造成局部的稀 缺。通常人们所说的稀缺性是相对稀缺。 那么，我们在投资上如何对稀缺性下定义呢？我给它下的定义是，稀缺性是指在某个时间段内（时间长 短可以由稀缺性的强度而定），某种商品的需求稳定或增长而供应无法同步增长甚至还可能减少的特 性，并且，这种商品在某个阶段内缺乏充分的替代商品，从而导致该商品的供给在该时间段内无法满足 需求（消费需求与投资需求）。 这个定义强调以下几点： （1）供给有限。 （2）缺少替代商品或替代商品不足。 （4）强调在某个阶段内—这是重点。因为投资是有时间限定的。 某些商品在某一个时间段内有投资价值，在另外一个时间段则没有投资价值。很多人没有意识到进行这 种 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the discussion revolves around the significant impact of AI and investment strategies, particularly in relation to Apple and Moutai [2][3] - The speaker, Duan Yongping, emphasizes the importance of understanding AI and expresses a desire to learn more about its applications in investment [3][4] - Duan shares a personal investment experience with Apple, highlighting a return of 1881.8% over approximately 12 years, equating to an annualized return of about 24%, resulting in a profit of over $34 million [4] Group 2 - Duan discusses the concept of luck in investment success, suggesting that while luck plays a role, consistent effort and making the right decisions are crucial for achieving success [5][6] - The discussion includes a comparison of Moutai's new direct sales model to Apple's retail strategy, indicating that Moutai's approach could be beneficial for both consumers and the company [10][11] - Duan expresses a positive outlook on Moutai's new technology initiatives, particularly the establishment of a digital technology company aimed at enhancing anti-counterfeiting measures and digital business [12][13]

在艺术市场的潮汐涨落中，总需要一种超越短期波动的眼光，去定义那些真正穿越周期的价值。这份眼 光，既需要俯瞰全球版图的高度，也需要连接东西方收藏脉络的文化纵深。佳士得亚洲区主席程寿康 （Kevin Ching），正是为数不多兼具这两种视野的行业掌舵者之一。从资深律师到历任两大国际拍卖 巨头的区域领导者，他以其独特的跨界思维与资源整合能力，深度参与了亚洲艺术市场融入全球体系的 进程。2025年末，在佳士得交出年度业绩答卷之际，程寿康接受了《21世纪经济报道》记者的独家专 访。采访中，他不仅为我们解读了佳士得2025年关键的业绩数据，更试图为我们厘清在市场韧性、藏家 代际更迭与价值哲学之间，究竟什么才是收藏永恒的魅力。 业绩复盘：韧性的三重奏 另一显著的趋势是对雅逸精品的强劲需求。2025年，亚太区买家在佳士得全球雅逸精品拍卖中贡献了 37%的成交额，遥遥领先于其他地区市场。无论是珠宝、名表、手袋还是名酒，这些兼具审美、实用与 收藏属性的品类，其背后共同指向藏家对稀有材质、精湛工艺与顶级品相的极致追求。 2025年对于佳士得和全球艺术市场而言，是韧性彰显的一年。在全球经济充满不确定性的背景下，佳士 得全球成交总额同 ...

AI出现前，人类以"万物之灵"自居；但在AI之后，这个答案开始动摇。 在量子位MEET2026智能未来大会上，上海交通大学上海高级金融学院金融学教授 朱宁 发出灵魂拷问： 编辑部 整理自 MEET2026 量子位 | 公众号 QbitAI 在AI面前，人类是什么？ 问题虽然留给大家思考了，但身为一名经济学家，他还是从专业角度为我们勾勒了一幅清晰而令人警醒的图景： 当算力、创意、时间这些曾被视为"稀缺"的人类核心优势逐渐被AI吞没，那么以这些稀缺性为基础构建起来的整套经济学逻辑——从资源配 置、生产结构到收入分配，无疑也将随之被撼动。 所以更保险的做法是，未来不要去想哪个行业在AI面前是安全的、完全不会被替代的，而应该更多考虑如何更好地掌握AI技术，和AI共生。 为了完整体现朱宁的思考，在不改变原意的基础上，量子位对演讲内容进行了编辑整理，希望能给你带来更多启发。 MEET2026智能未来大会是由量子位主办的行业峰会，近30位产业代表与会讨论。线下到场参会观众近1500人，线上直播观众350万+，获得 了主流媒体的广泛关注与报道。 核心观点梳理 AI出现之后，稀缺的概念改变了 。如何在稀缺面前做出更好的选择，是 ...

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart's trendy toy business is increasingly connecting with the luxury goods sector, as evidenced by the appointment of LVMH's Greater China President, Wu Yue, to its board of directors [2][5]. Group 1: Strategic Developments - Wu Yue's appointment may indicate Pop Mart's further exploration into the core circle of international fashion trends [3]. - The company has been compared to luxury brands like Hermes due to its high gross margin of nearly 70% since its performance explosion [3]. - Pop Mart's collaboration with LVMH and its luxury brands could signify a shift from mere marketing to deeper strategic interactions [13]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for scarcity is a common pursuit in both the trendy toy and luxury goods industries, where exclusivity enhances social status and identity recognition [6]. - Pop Mart's products, particularly in the secondary market, have seen a decline in premium pricing, indicating a cooling of consumer interest compared to previous "one toy hard to find" scenarios [4][11]. - The company aims to balance IP value, scarcity, and revenue scalability, which remains a long-term challenge [15]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Challenges - In the first half of 2025, the MEGA series generated nearly 1 billion yuan, accounting for 7% of total revenue [10]. - Pop Mart's stock price has dropped over 45% since its peak, with a market capitalization loss exceeding 200 billion HKD, reflecting investor concerns over declining resale prices and market sentiment [16][17]. - The company is facing a "availability paradox," where increased production capacity is transforming its core IP LABUBU from a scarce trend symbol to a mass-market product, potentially signaling a decline in popularity [19]. Group 4: Future Prospects - Pop Mart is expanding its international presence, with plans to open 200 new stores by the end of the year, maintaining a pace of approximately three new stores per week [14]. - The company is also diversifying its IP portfolio, with notable growth from new IPs like CRYBABY and Star People, which are expected to contribute significantly to revenue [14]. - Collaborations with major brands and the development of immersive experiences are part of Pop Mart's strategy to deepen emotional connections with consumers [27].

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline, dropping from a historical high of $126,000 in early October to below $93,700, erasing over 30% of its gains for the year and entering a "technical bear market" [1] Group 1: Reasons for the Decline - Institutional investors are withdrawing large amounts of capital, leading to a loss of core market support, with Bitcoin ETF inflows shifting from stable to net outflows [3] - Changes in the macroeconomic environment, including the impact of Trump's tariff policies and a cooling of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, have negatively affected risk assets, with Bitcoin being sold off as a high-risk asset [3] - A leveraged bubble has burst, resulting in 160,000 liquidations within 24 hours and a total liquidation amount of $580 million, exacerbating losses and triggering a chain reaction of sell-offs [3] - Long-term holders are accelerating their sell-off, with some early investors viewing $100,000 as a psychological profit-taking point, selling at a rate of over 1,000 BTC per hour [4] Group 2: Implications for Medium to Long-term Investors - Caution is advised for short-term investors as market sentiment is extremely pessimistic and institutional funds have not yet returned, suggesting a need to wait for stabilization signals before attempting to buy the dip [6] - The long-term investment thesis remains intact due to Bitcoin's scarcity and institutional demand, with potential buying opportunities if prices drop to key support levels (e.g., $60,000 to $65,000) [6] - Investors should be wary of high leverage traps, as the volatility in cryptocurrency markets can lead to significant losses; focusing on spot trading is recommended [7]

Core Insights - The rising trend of refrigerator magnets being more expensive than refrigerators reflects a shift in consumer behavior and market dynamics [1][6] - The price increase of refrigerator magnets is driven by high profit margins on low-cost items and the emotional value they provide to consumers [2][7] Profit Margins and Market Dynamics - The profit margin for refrigerator magnets is significantly higher than that of refrigerators, with the latter's gross margin declining from 19.94% in 2016 to 11.15% in 2024 due to market saturation and competition [2] - In contrast, low-cost items like refrigerator magnets can have profit margins that reach several hundred percent, making them more lucrative for retailers [2] Manufacturing Costs - Manufacturing costs for refrigerator magnets include direct material, labor, and manufacturing expenses, which can be substantial despite the low material costs [3][4] - The complexity of designs and the need for manual coloring contribute to higher production costs, with some molds costing between 200,000 to 500,000 yuan [3][4] Cultural and Emotional Value - Refrigerator magnets serve as cultural and emotional artifacts, often linked to travel experiences, which enhances their perceived value [7][8] - The trend of collecting and showcasing refrigerator magnets on social media platforms indicates a growing consumer preference for items that carry personal significance [7][8] Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The increasing size of refrigerators means that consumers are willing to spend more on magnets, with some high-end or limited-edition magnets priced significantly higher than standard ones [5][6] - The market for refrigerator magnets is influenced by their scarcity and cultural significance, leading to higher prices for unique or IP-linked designs [8] Broader Implications for Manufacturing - The distinction between traditional manufacturing and value-added manufacturing is highlighted by the success of refrigerator magnets, which combine design, marketing, and cultural elements [9] - The evolution of manufacturing in China reflects a shift towards products with higher emotional and cultural value, as seen in the rising prices of refrigerator magnets compared to the declining prices of refrigerators [9]

Group 1: Rare Earths - The strategic value of rare earths is highlighted as an irreplaceable "countermeasure" in geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the context of US-China trade tensions [8][14]. - The recent announcement of strict export controls on rare earths by the Chinese government has significantly increased market expectations for potential export restrictions to the US, driving up the prices and interest in rare earth stocks [16][39]. - Demand for rare earths is expected to surge due to global energy transitions and technological advancements, particularly in electric vehicles, wind energy, and military applications [20][23][31]. - China dominates the global rare earth supply chain, controlling over 60% of production and 85% of refining capacity, creating a significant barrier for other countries attempting to establish their own supply chains [25][27]. - Recent price increases for rare earths have been substantial, with prices for certain elements like dysprosium and praseodymium skyrocketing, reflecting the supply-demand imbalance [32][34]. Group 2: Gold - Gold prices have reached historical highs, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty [43][45]. - Factors supporting gold price increases include expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a global trend towards "de-dollarization," leading central banks to diversify their reserves [44]. - The performance of gold ETFs, particularly the gold ETF (518680), has been strong, with significant net inflows and a high annual growth rate, making it an attractive investment option [48][50]. - The strategic role of gold in investment portfolios is emphasized, with recommendations for a substantial allocation to hedge against risks associated with credit assets [46]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Both rare earths and gold are identified as key strategic assets in the current market environment, offering unique investment opportunities amid ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [51][53]. - The contrasting roles of rare earths as a growth asset and gold as a defensive asset provide investors with a balanced approach to navigating market volatility [51][52].

Core Concept - The article emphasizes the importance of scarcity in determining value and wealth accumulation, suggesting that understanding and leveraging scarcity can significantly shorten the distance to financial success [1][3][18] Group 1: Definition and Importance of Scarcity - Scarcity is defined as "less is more," where valuable resources are limited, leading to higher demand and value [3] - Examples of scarcity include gold, which symbolizes wealth due to its limited availability, and real estate in prime locations, which retains value because of finite land [3][8] Group 2: Types of Scarcity - **Resource Scarcity**: Limited natural resources such as prime school district properties and rare minerals can stabilize or increase in value when acquired [7][8] - **Skill Scarcity**: Individuals who possess unique problem-solving abilities or leadership skills are considered scarce talents, commanding higher salaries compared to their peers [9] - **Cognitive Scarcity**: Those who can foresee trends and adapt accordingly, such as early adopters of mobile internet or AI, demonstrate a form of scarcity in knowledge [10] Group 3: Creating Personal Scarcity - To become irreplaceable in a primary job, individuals should focus on solving problems that others cannot, thereby increasing their value [12] - In secondary ventures, finding niche markets with high barriers to entry can create differentiation and scarcity [13] - Aligning oneself with emerging trends allows individuals to capitalize on scarcity by becoming a connector in new markets [14] Group 4: Wealth Accumulation through Scarcity - Wealth accumulation is not evenly distributed; it tends to favor those who provide scarce value, explaining why a small percentage of people hold a majority of wealth [16] - To achieve significant financial goals, such as earning 10 million, one must focus on providing scarce resources rather than relying solely on hard work [16][18]

Core Insights - Financial markets have experienced a significant upheaval since October, with gold prices surpassing $4000 per ounce, marking a 50% increase year-to-date, and Bitcoin reaching a peak of $115,700, leading to $400 million in liquidations for short sellers [1][3][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The surge in gold and Bitcoin prices is attributed to the fundamental principle that valuable assets are limited in supply, especially in the context of ongoing money printing by governments [3][5] - Central banks, including China's, have been increasing their gold reserves for 11 consecutive months, with a notable increase in diversification efforts despite a slight decrease in September [5][14] - The current gold reserve percentage in China stands at 7.7%, significantly lower than the global average of 15%, indicating substantial room for future increases [5] Group 2: Investment Trends - The market is witnessing a shift towards assets with inherent scarcity, such as gold and Bitcoin, as inflation erodes the purchasing power of fiat currencies [9][11] - Predictions suggest that Bitcoin's price could exceed $120,000 in the fourth quarter, driven by anticipated supply cuts and continued monetary easing [7][14] - Institutional interest in both gold and Bitcoin is growing, with emerging market central banks projected to purchase 70 tons of gold annually and significant increases in Bitcoin holdings by entities like Grayscale [14] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Recommended asset allocation includes a conservative approach of investing 10% of household funds in physical gold or gold ETFs, while a more aggressive strategy suggests allocating 5% to Bitcoin [17][21] - Investors are advised to avoid high-risk products such as gold futures and Bitcoin contracts, which have led to significant losses for many traders [19][21] - Long-term holding strategies are emphasized, with data indicating that investors who hold gold for five years or Bitcoin for three years tend to achieve substantial returns [21]