10 月以来的金融市场彻底颠覆认知，纽约期金 10 月 7 日首次冲破 4000 美元 / 盎司，年内暴涨 50%；比特币紧随其后，一度摸高 11.57 万美元，24 小时 15 万人因做空爆仓 4 亿美元。 更震撼的是市场反应：纽约期金突破 4000 美元整数关口，伦敦现货金飙至 3977 美元，这轮上涨根本不是 "投机炒作"，高盛早预警过，各国央行年购金量 将达 80 吨，美联储降息后资金还会疯狂涌入。黄金的底气，就在于全球已探明储量仅 5.6 万吨，挖完即止的稀缺性。 这波疯涨背后，藏着华尔街大佬戳破的真相："任何有价值的东西都不会无限供应，只要政府还在印钞，比特币和黄金就会继续飙升"。四季度这场 "稀缺性 对决印钞机" 的大戏，普通人看懂就能守住钱袋子！ 黄金，央行都在抢的 "终极支付手段" 10 月 7 日国家外汇管理局数据砸出定心丸：我国央行已连续 11 个月增持黄金，即便 9 月增量降至 4 万盎司，仍坚定推进储备多元化。要知道，当前我国黄 金储备占比仅 7.7%，远低于 15% 的全球平均水平，未来增持空间巨大。 "2100 万枚上限，永远不会多印 1 个！" 比特币的稀缺性写死在区块链代码里 ...

给各位粉丝爸爸汇报下，我和妻子共同孕育的小小宋，于 10 月 8 日下午，来到这个世界。 我过往的内容，感觉更适合放在工作日。可能是小小宋理解我，选择假期到来，让我这个老父亲，可以 不太打扰粉丝的情况下，写写碎碎念。 关于你的家庭 你的爷爷奶奶成长在田间地头上，唯有秸秆能撑起希望，肩膀能驮起来的只有太阳和月亮。 你的爸爸妈妈赶上了好时代，我们能在北京这样的城市有工作，是国家的培养，你爸妈个人的努力可能 只占 30% 。 希望你心中有理想，眼里有光，手中有力量。 我们来这个世界，不是为了繁衍后代。而是来看花怎么开，水怎么流。太阳怎么升起，夕阳何时落下。 关于你的母亲 你不是为我和妈妈而来，你是为了看更好的世界，甚至创造更好的世界而来。 我和妈妈也不是为了你而在一起，我和妈妈的存在，是为了成为你最好的记忆。 希望你有独立的精神，自由的思想，多彩的人生。 关于你的父亲 你爸爸没有很高的智商，高考是靠速效救心丸走过来的。但是没有智商遗传给你，我觉得也没关系。耐 心、倾听、爱，才是作为父亲最重要的三个要素。 你是第一次做儿子，而我也是第一次做父亲。所以，我应该并没有资格说，你哪里不好，哪里不对。 我对你的管教，指引，只 ...

自从我们8月底介入机器人板块以来，就一直在思考近期投资的范式是什么？ 在资金较为充裕的情形下，各个板块要"争夺资金话语权"，需要用"确定性"来吸引市场 易中胜富 就是 英伟达链 的Tier 1，也就是确定性 或者 稀缺性 【笔者按】 易中胜富 在7、8和9月初过分的耀眼，也强化了我们一直认为的"风格转换" 进入9月，在国内芯片制造先进制成突破，光刻机技术突破，阿里等大CSP自研突破的背景下，国产算力一路走高，而我也第一时间意识到预期纠结选择标 的，不如一键打包选择芯片制造产业链的上中下游~。 结果确实买在国产科创芯片的起爆点！至今浮盈39% 节前最后交易日华虹和佰维成了最靓的仔~ | 代码 名称 | 涨幅 | | --- | --- | | 688347 华虹公司 | +15.16% | | 688525 佰维存储 | 重研公社:回桃列名称 | 但其实也说明了，除了村龙，其他标的都以轮动的形式走强，哪怕寒武纪，海光信息，在GPU界的地位，都没法跟易中胜富四大天王相比。 除了菊厂占23%（甚至25年后还会扩大）外，其他包括寒武纪只有1%~3%的份额，而随着摩尔、沐曦、燧元等等上市GPU越来越多，寒武纪《原本稀缺 ...

Core Viewpoint - Scarcity is not a permanent condition but a phase that can change over time, as evidenced by the declining wholesale price of Moutai liquor, which challenges the notion of its uniqueness and value [1][3][13] Group 1: Dynamics of Scarcity - Scarcity is defined as a situation where supply is insufficient relative to demand, but for investors, a more practical standard includes limited supply, lack of substitutes, stable or growing demand, and time constraints [5] - The value of scarcity is temporary and can shift from being a wealth generator to a liability depending on market conditions [5][11] Group 2: Forms of Scarcity - Geographic scarcity is influenced by unique production conditions, as seen with Moutai from Guizhou, but can collapse under increased production and declining consumption [7] - Technological scarcity can lead to excess returns, exemplified by Microsoft's operating system dominance and Nvidia's AI chip success, while Intel's strategic missteps illustrate the loss of scarcity [7][9] - Non-renewable resources like rare metals and energy can also experience price drops due to over-extraction, undermining their perceived scarcity [9] Group 3: Impact of Economic Conditions - During economic downturns, high-end consumer goods are the first to feel the impact, leading to reduced demand for luxury items like Moutai, resulting in increased inventory and falling prices [11] - Understanding scarcity requires recognizing it as a dynamic balance rather than a fixed advantage, with the need to monitor supply-demand relationships and potential technological disruptions [11][13] Group 4: Conclusion on Scarcity - Scarcity is a cyclical phenomenon influenced by technological advancements, supply expansions, or shifts in consumer behavior, necessitating timely strategy adjustments by investors [13] - The true wisdom lies in identifying new forms of scarcity and seizing opportunities before they dissipate, rather than clinging to outdated beliefs [13]

编者按： 一阵消费风向的转变，能让昔日的"硬通货"跌落神坛。曾经的"公务宴请标配"、价格稳居高位的飞天茅台，批发价也跌到历史新低。 在经济趋势研究专家时寒冰看来，稀缺性并不是永恒的，而是受时间、供需与替代品影响。投资意义上的稀缺，指在某一阶段需求持续而供给跟不上、且 缺少可替代品。它可以来自地域，比如贵州茅台的独特产地；来自技术，如微软操作系统、英伟达的AI芯片优势；也可以是不可再生资源，如铟和可 可。 所以说，无论是做投资还是做实业，在消费降级的巨大威力面前，都必须顺势而为，及时进行调整，调整越早、越快，就越主动，反应越慢、越迟钝，就 越被动。 *文章摘自《全球视野下的投资机会》一书，作者为时寒冰。 如何定义稀缺性？ 物以稀为贵——以稀缺性为目标，是获取高盈利的捷径——但必须考虑时间因素，时间是成就、强化稀缺性的帮手，同时也是摧毁、击败稀缺性的利器。 据智通财经的报道，酒类行情监测平台"今日酒价"数据显示，2025年53度500ml飞天茅台散瓶批发参考价报1770元，再创上市以来的新低；与 平台上线时的2220元、2255元相比，两者累计跌幅均已超过20%。图源：新华社 经济学上给稀缺性下的定义是这样的：稀 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the performance of seven asset classes over a period of one and a half years, originally valued at 5 million [2][4] - The seven asset classes include stocks (Moutai, Nvidia, Microsoft), cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin), precious metals (gold), real estate (small apartment in Beijing), and luxury goods (LV bags) [2][3] - Nvidia has shown the highest return, with a price increase of 100.1%, while the real estate investment has suffered the most with a decline of 17.9% [5][6] Group 2 - Nvidia is highlighted as a leader in the AI sector, with expectations of a price increase of 50%-100% over the next 3-5 years, despite potential risks from competition and policy changes [10][12] - Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility, with a historical increase of 600% over the past decade, but it faces risks related to regulatory scrutiny and market consensus [13][15] - Microsoft benefits from its Azure cloud services and plans to increase subscription prices, although it faces intense competition from Amazon and Google [16] Group 3 - Gold prices have surged significantly, with a current price of 3644 USD per ounce, driven by factors such as increased money supply and central bank purchases [17][20][21] - Moutai, as a leading domestic liquor brand, has seen a decline in stock price and sales, but it retains a strong market position due to its brand value and cultural significance [23][27] - Luxury goods, particularly LV bags, are generally not good investments due to depreciation, but limited edition items may retain or increase in value [28] Group 4 - Real estate investments in core urban areas like Beijing have shown poor performance, with low rental yields and depreciation concerns [30][32] - The article suggests that each asset class has its own logic and cycle, emphasizing the importance of diversification in investment strategies [34]

Group 1 - The value of diamonds is being redefined due to the rise of lab-grown diamonds, which are similar in appearance and properties to natural diamonds but are significantly cheaper [1][2][3] - The traditional marketing strategy of De Beers, which emphasizes the rarity and timelessness of diamonds, is becoming less effective in the face of technological advancements that allow for the easy production of diamonds [2][3] - The luxury goods market, including diamonds, is facing a crisis as the scarcity that once defined their value is being challenged by the availability of alternatives, such as lab-grown diamonds [3] Group 2 - The issue of counterfeit and knockoff products is becoming more prevalent, impacting the luxury market, but high-end brands like Hermès still maintain demand due to their unique craftsmanship and brand prestige [2] - De Beers faces challenges in maintaining diamond scarcity while ensuring that diamonds remain a common choice for engagement rings among consumers in the U.S. [2]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the white goods industry, particularly focusing on major players such as Midea, Haier, and Gree, as well as international competitors like Daikin and AO Smith [2][4][30]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Structure**: The white goods industry is characterized by a historical foundation dating back to the 1990s, leading to a potential oligopolistic market structure with a few dominant players [2][4]. 2. **Valuation Discrepancies**: Current valuations of Chinese white goods companies are significantly lower compared to their international counterparts. For instance, Midea is valued at 18 times earnings, Haier at 11 times, and Gree at 8 times, while Daikin and AO Smith are valued at 20-30 times [4][5]. 3. **Performance Metrics**: In 2022, Haier reported a 20% growth in the first quarter, which positively influenced the entire sector's performance and valuations [3][4]. 4. **Stability and Scarcity**: The ability to achieve valuation premiums is linked to stability and scarcity. Companies with stable earnings and strong market positions can command higher valuations [6][30]. 5. **Shareholder Returns**: There is a notable trend of increasing shareholder returns among leading companies, with Midea raising its dividend payout ratio to 70% and Haier to 50% [22][30]. 6. **Economic Sensitivity**: The sensitivity of white goods companies to real estate cycles is relatively low, with estimates suggesting only a minor impact on revenues from fluctuations in the real estate market [19][20]. 7. **Cost Structure**: The cost structure of these companies is influenced by raw material prices, with a significant correlation observed between the costs and commodity prices like copper and steel [9][20]. 8. **Market Expansion**: The discussion highlights the need for Chinese companies to expand their presence in overseas markets while managing operational cycles effectively [28][30]. 9. **Competitive Landscape**: The competitive landscape is described as challenging, with significant price competition affecting profit margins, particularly in the air conditioning segment [25][30]. 10. **Future Outlook**: The report suggests that the valuation gap between Chinese and international companies may close over time as domestic firms enhance their shareholder return strategies and market positions [27][30]. Additional Important Insights - **Oligopoly Formation**: The white goods industry is likely to continue evolving towards an oligopoly due to the high barriers to entry and the scale advantages enjoyed by leading firms [2][21]. - **Investment Sentiment**: There is a growing recognition among investors of the importance of stable returns, which may shift market perceptions and valuations over time [26][30]. - **Long-term Strategy**: Companies are encouraged to focus on long-term strategies that prioritize brand development and market share rather than short-term capital expenditures [28][30]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and arguments presented during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the white goods industry.

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the enduring value of Moutai, highlighting its financial attributes, collectible nature, and long-term growth certainty as key factors that contribute to its market resilience [1][2][4]. Group 1: Financial Attributes - Moutai has been referred to as "liquid gold," with a historical price equivalence to "10 grams of gold" in 2021, showcasing its financial appeal [1]. - The auction average price of Moutai old liquor is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.7% from 2020 to 2025, significantly outpacing gold's 5.3% growth during the same period [2]. Group 2: Scarcity and Production - Moutai's production capacity for 2024 is limited to 57,200 tons, representing only 0.6% of China's total liquor production, indicating a structural scarcity [2]. - The production process involves 30 steps and 165 stages, with a minimum aging period of five years, further constraining expansion opportunities [2]. Group 3: Cultural Significance - Moutai's unique aging process enhances its flavor over time, with prices for 30-year and 50-year variants reaching over 10,000 yuan, reflecting the quantifiable value of time [3]. - The company integrates cultural elements into its products, such as the "Scattered Flower Moutai" and "Singing Moutai," which combine traditional art with limited editions, enhancing their collectible appeal [3]. Group 4: Resilience and Growth - Moutai has demonstrated strong resilience, successfully pivoting its strategy during the 2013 "ban on official liquor" by targeting high-net-worth individuals and business consumers [4]. - In Q1 2025, Moutai reported revenue of 50.6 billion yuan and a net profit of 26.8 billion yuan, showcasing its ability to grow even during industry downturns [4]. Group 5: International Expansion - Moutai's overseas sales reached 5.189 billion yuan in 2024, marking a significant increase of 19.27% year-on-year, indicating strong international demand [5]. - The company exported over 2,100 tons of liquor in 2024, with high-value Moutai sales exceeding 100 tons, reflecting a growing consumer base in emerging markets [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent drastic price drop of Labubu blind boxes in the secondary market highlights the cyclical nature of capital speculation, transitioning from hype to collapse [1] Group 1: Product Overview - Labubu is a plastic doll from Pop Mart, marketed as a blind box collectible [3] - The product was previously sold at inflated prices, with individual dolls fetching up to ten times their original price due to perceived scarcity [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The price collapse was triggered by a sudden large-scale restock during the 618 shopping festival, which shattered the illusion of scarcity [3][4] - The brand employed a strategy of "hunger marketing" combined with periodic restocking to create initial scarcity and drive up market interest [4] Group 3: Speculation and Consumer Behavior - Speculators and middlemen exploited information asymmetry and technology to hoard products, misleading consumers about their investment value [4] - The true production cost of the dolls is relatively low, indicating that the perceived value is artificially constructed [5] Group 4: Investment Insights - The article warns against investing in products driven by speculative hype rather than intrinsic value, emphasizing the importance of companies with genuine innovation and brand strength [5] - The collapse of Labubu's prices serves as a reminder that speculative bubbles inevitably burst, reinforcing the principle that detached speculation from actual value leads to failure [5]