创新式复苏
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申万菱信基金陈晓升:2026年将迎来“创新式复苏” 三大特征引领资本市场新阶段
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-02 07:21
Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted expectations for a significant bull market in A-shares, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" and its focus on innovation, investment in people, and international cooperation, which are anticipated to inject new momentum into the Chinese economy and support its recovery towards 2026 [1][6][7]. Group 1: Characteristics of the Recovery - The current recovery is expected to begin with price increases, influenced by new fiscal measures aimed at public services and living standards, alongside policies to counteract "involution," which may lead to a moderate rise in prices beneficial to innovative companies [2][8]. - This recovery is likely to be structural rather than rapid, driven by advantageous industries and companies, as existing structural issues within the economy, such as real estate adjustments and demographic challenges, remain unresolved [3][9]. - The recovery may also alter financial asset allocation, with a potential decline in bank loan rates being limited, while a shift in wealth from real estate to other financial products is anticipated, promoting a flow of capital towards high-quality assets [4][10].