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项昊宇:东亚区域经济发展呼唤新型“雁群模式”
Huan Qiu Wang· 2025-09-14 22:58
Core Insights - The East Asian regional cooperation is at a critical juncture, facing challenges from de-globalization, technological competition, and geopolitical tensions, necessitating a shift from the traditional "Flying Geese" model to an innovative "Flying Flock" model for economic resurgence [1][10] Group 1: The "Flying Geese" Model - The "Flying Geese" model, proposed by Japanese economist Akamatsu, describes a linear industrial transfer from advanced economies to lower-cost regions, characterized by vertical division of labor and export-driven growth [2][3] - This model has historically driven East Asia's economic miracle, but its foundational conditions have changed, leading to a lack of new "Little Dragons" and "Little Tigers" [2][3] Group 2: Changes in Economic Dynamics - China's rapid development has transformed East Asia's economic landscape, positioning it as a "leading goose" and disrupting the traditional gradient transfer model [3] - The global value chain is undergoing restructuring, with modular division of labor replacing complete industrial transfers, making it harder for latecomer countries to achieve comprehensive industrialization [3] - Revolutionary changes in technology paradigms, with digital and green economies emerging as new growth engines, require countries to build digital and green infrastructures to keep pace with development [3][4] Group 3: Geopolitical Impacts - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S. push for economic decoupling from China, are reshaping global supply chains and disrupting the previously stable regional industrial division [4] Group 4: Lessons from the "Flying Geese" Model - Despite the decline of the "Flying Geese" model, its successful experiences can inform current strategies, emphasizing the need for East Asian economies to embrace openness and inclusivity against protectionism [5] - A new development framework, termed the "multi-core innovation collaborative network," is proposed, moving away from a linear model to a decentralized structure with multiple core nodes [5][6] Group 5: Implementation of the New Model - To realize the new "Flying Flock" model, regional cooperation is essential, including upgrading trade agreements like RCEP, investing in new infrastructure, and establishing regional innovation funds [8][9] - Countries must actively engage in regional governance, with China playing a pivotal role as a network hub, while developed economies like Japan and South Korea should act as key nodes to facilitate regional industrial upgrades [9] Group 6: Political Consensus and Cooperation - The advancement of East Asian regional cooperation is not solely an economic issue; it also requires rebuilding political consensus and cooperation to counteract the resurgence of Cold War mentalities [10]