Core Insights - The East Asian regional cooperation is at a critical juncture, facing challenges from de-globalization, technological competition, and geopolitical tensions, necessitating a shift from the traditional "Flying Geese" model to an innovative "Flying Flock" model for economic resurgence [1][10] Group 1: The "Flying Geese" Model - The "Flying Geese" model, proposed by Japanese economist Akamatsu, describes a linear industrial transfer from advanced economies to lower-cost regions, characterized by vertical division of labor and export-driven growth [2][3] - This model has historically driven East Asia's economic miracle, but its foundational conditions have changed, leading to a lack of new "Little Dragons" and "Little Tigers" [2][3] Group 2: Changes in Economic Dynamics - China's rapid development has transformed East Asia's economic landscape, positioning it as a "leading goose" and disrupting the traditional gradient transfer model [3] - The global value chain is undergoing restructuring, with modular division of labor replacing complete industrial transfers, making it harder for latecomer countries to achieve comprehensive industrialization [3] - Revolutionary changes in technology paradigms, with digital and green economies emerging as new growth engines, require countries to build digital and green infrastructures to keep pace with development [3][4] Group 3: Geopolitical Impacts - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S. push for economic decoupling from China, are reshaping global supply chains and disrupting the previously stable regional industrial division [4] Group 4: Lessons from the "Flying Geese" Model - Despite the decline of the "Flying Geese" model, its successful experiences can inform current strategies, emphasizing the need for East Asian economies to embrace openness and inclusivity against protectionism [5] - A new development framework, termed the "multi-core innovation collaborative network," is proposed, moving away from a linear model to a decentralized structure with multiple core nodes [5][6] Group 5: Implementation of the New Model - To realize the new "Flying Flock" model, regional cooperation is essential, including upgrading trade agreements like RCEP, investing in new infrastructure, and establishing regional innovation funds [8][9] - Countries must actively engage in regional governance, with China playing a pivotal role as a network hub, while developed economies like Japan and South Korea should act as key nodes to facilitate regional industrial upgrades [9] Group 6: Political Consensus and Cooperation - The advancement of East Asian regional cooperation is not solely an economic issue; it also requires rebuilding political consensus and cooperation to counteract the resurgence of Cold War mentalities [10]

Group 1: Tariff Policy Characteristics - Trump's tariff policy exhibits a "country-specific differentiation and important goods overlay" dual-track feature, aiming to reshape bilateral trade mechanisms while addressing trade deficits[4] - The tariff rates imposed on the UK were set at 10%, the lowest tier, due to concessions made by the UK government on imports of US food and agricultural products[5] - The US has reached agreements with the EU, Japan, and South Korea for a 15% tariff increase, with the EU committing to invest $600 billion in the US and Japan investing $550 billion in various sectors[5] Group 2: Impact on Global Supply Chains - The tariff policy is expected to significantly disrupt global supply chains, with localization and regionalization becoming mainstream trends in supply chain restructuring[4] - The US is projected to maintain control over high-end supply chain segments, with China evolving into an indispensable "central node" in global supply chains[24] - The EU is anticipated to become a key recipient of mid-to-high-end technology supply chain transfers, while ASEAN and Latin America can leverage "friend-shoring" and "near-shoring" advantages[24] Group 3: Economic and Trade Implications - The US's trade deficit in categories like transportation equipment and machinery is projected to exceed $1 trillion by 2024, prompting a focus on tariffs for semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles[10] - The cumulative tariff rate for Indian goods entering the US has reached 50%, the highest among current global tariffs, indicating a significant leverage point for negotiations[6] - The US's import volume is nearing $3.3 trillion in 2024, granting it substantial influence over global supply chain adjustments[18]