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中国动力(600482):低估的船机龙头,船舶周期方兴未艾
CMS· 2025-12-26 09:03
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for China Power [1][3]. Core Views - China Power is currently undervalued due to the pressure on ship market volume and prices this year. However, there are signs of recovery in the short term, and long-term growth is expected from bulk carriers and oil tankers, along with the trend towards alternative fuels [1][7]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic ship engine market, with a significant increase in revenue and profit expected in the coming years [7][9]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, China Power achieved revenue of 40.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.21 billion yuan, up 63% year-on-year [7][9]. - The company’s revenue growth rates are projected at 17% for 2025, 15% for 2026, and 12% for 2027, with net profits expected to reach 2.2 billion yuan, 3.1 billion yuan, and 4.25 billion yuan respectively [8][70]. Market Outlook - The ship market is showing signs of recovery, with expectations for increased demand for bulk carriers and oil tankers. The aging fleet and low order-to-capacity ratios for these vessels indicate a tightening supply in the future [2][30][35]. - The report highlights that the global shipbuilding market is currently in an upward cycle driven by the need for fleet renewal and compliance with environmental regulations [23][24]. Valuation - China Power's current price-to-book (PB) ratio is below 1.2, and the projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for 2026 is only 15 times, both indicating a significant undervaluation compared to historical averages [7][72]. - The company has over 40 billion yuan in cash, which is close to its market capitalization, providing a strong safety margin for investors [15][72]. Business Segments - The diesel engine segment is becoming the core profit driver for China Power, with its revenue share increasing significantly. By 2027, it is expected to contribute approximately 30 billion yuan to net profits [11][70]. - The report emphasizes the structural opportunities in the ship engine market due to the rising penetration of alternative fuels and the expected increase in orders and prices for ship engines [7][57].