炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中信证券研究 文|裘翔 高玉森 陈泽平 张铭楷 陈峰 刘春彤 我们判断本轮ETF集中赎回潮基本结束，权重股迎来修复窗口；大周期维度下的风格切换正在发生，从 小盘切大盘，从题材切质量；沃什被提名美联储主席代表了"美国版脱虚向实"的政策意愿，无论是否能 成功践行理念，对全球风险资产的风格都会产生巨大影响。站在A股视角，从资源热到周期热，涨价线 索的全面演绎可能贯穿一季度。周期板块的底层共性是利润率修复空间大，背后是中国的政策从扩大规 模逐步向提质增效的转变。配置的底层思路还是应围绕中国具备竞争优势的行业在全球定价权的重估， 化工、有色、电力设备、新能源的底仓配置思路依然成立，但对投机属性越发明显的贵金属板块要开始 保持警惕；消费和地产链的躁动修复理应发生在春季，这与制造、科技并不对立。 ETF集中赎回潮基本结束 权重股迎来修复窗口 沪深300ETF本周累计净赎回2443亿元，与前一周净赎回总额2374亿元相当，不过本周五净赎回额仅为 73亿元，为1月15日以来单日净赎回额首次回落至300亿元以下。1月截至29日，全市场宽基类ETF净赎 ...

1月27日，《证券日报》从中国汽车流通协会乘用车市场信息联席分会（以下简称"乘联会"）了解到， 2025年汽车行业收入实现同比增长，但成本增速更快，全年利润同比仅微增，行业利润率降至4.1%； 而2025年12月份利润率更是下滑至1.8%，环比、同比均出现明显走弱迹象。 在2025年中国汽车产销量再创历史新高的背景下，汽车产业链"赚钱难"的问题也更加凸显。 乘联会秘书长崔东树对《证券日报》记者表示，汽车行业去库存和改善账期效果是好于工业企业总体水 平的。2025年，各地大力度推动"两新"政策落地实施，有效释放内需活力，消费品以旧换新政策加力扩 围效果明显，但汽车行业效益改善明显落后于其他消费品。 行业利润率偏低 2025年，汽车产销累计分别完成3453.1万辆和3440万辆，同比分别增长10.4%和9.4%，产业基本盘继续 做大。乘用车首次实现年度产销双超3000万辆，商用车也回到400万辆以上的景气区间；新能源汽车在 12月份的新车销量占比达到52.3%，全年占比达47.9%。 "量增利薄"的背后，一方面是竞争加剧导致的价格让利，另一方面是成本波动对盈利的持续侵蚀。业内 分析人士认为，2025年工业企业单位 ...

Company and Industry Summary Industry: Food and Beverage Sector Key Points - **Company Focus**: The analysis centers on Anjijia, a leading player in the food and beverage sector, particularly in the frozen food market [1][2]. - **Sales Performance**: Anjijia has received positive sales feedback recently, indicating a potential strengthening of its leading market position. The company has also reduced promotional efforts on some products, suggesting a strategic shift to stabilize pricing amidst competitive pressures [1][2]. - **Product Innovation**: The company is shifting its strategy towards product innovation, with a focus on new product launches. In 2025, Anjijia plans to drive growth through new products, including the recent acquisition of the "Anzhai" brand to enter the halal market [1][2]. - **Channel Upgrades**: Anjijia is prioritizing channel upgrades, particularly in large B2B customizations, with a focus on supermarkets and new retail channels in 2025 [1][2]. - **Profit Margin Improvement**: The expected scale effects from customized products are anticipated to enhance gross margins. The company is also expected to see improvements in net profit margins as high-margin consumer products gain traction and as sales through supermarkets and new retail channels increase [3][4]. - **Seasonal Demand Recovery**: The current season is characterized by a recovery in demand for frozen food, with a gradual easing of price competition. The company is positioned to benefit from this seasonal uptick, with expectations for revenue growth driven by low base effects and improved performance in specific product categories [4]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Analysts suggest focusing on Anjijia due to its stable seasonal sales and potential for profit margin recovery. Other companies to watch include Babi, which is successfully expanding its new store formats, and Lihigh, which is benefiting from channel advantages and favorable policies [4]. Risks - **Consumer Spending**: There are risks associated with the recovery of consumer spending not meeting expectations, which could impact sales [5]. - **Increased Competition**: The food and beverage industry is facing heightened competition, which may affect pricing and market share [5]. - **Product and Channel Development**: There are concerns that the promotion of new products and the expansion of distribution channels may not proceed as planned, potentially hindering growth [5].

Core Insights - In October, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size turned negative year-on-year, primarily due to the divergence in volume and price, uneven transmission of upstream price increases, and rising financial costs leading to a contraction in profit margins [1] - The industry is experiencing increased differentiation, with most sectors seeing a decline in profit growth; upstream industries performed slightly better than midstream and downstream, while only the beverage and tea sector benefited from a low base effect, resulting in marginal profit improvement [1] - Passive inventory replenishment highlights weak demand; future policy support and demand recovery are needed to stimulate inventory replenishment, alongside deepening anti-involution which may aid in improving PPI and restoring profit margins, although profit recovery may be gradual [1] - Caution is advised regarding demand falling short of expectations and issues related to cost transmission [1] Industry Analysis - The overall profit growth rate has declined across most industries, indicating a challenging environment for industrial enterprises [1] - Upstream industries are showing slightly better performance compared to midstream and downstream sectors, suggesting a potential shift in focus for investors [1] - The beverage and tea industry stands out as a rare exception, benefiting from a low profit margin base, which has allowed for some recovery in profits [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Tianfeng Securities has given a "buy" rating to Sankeshu (603737.SH) based on its strong performance in the home decoration paint sector and effective strategic transformation [2] - The report highlights that both sales volume and price of home decoration paint have increased, indicating a positive market trend [2] - Profit margins have significantly improved, and cash flow has turned positive, which are critical factors for the company's financial health [2] Group 2 - The report mentions potential risks, including the possibility that the company's channel expansion may not meet expectations [2] - There is a concern regarding the significant increase in raw material prices, which could impact profitability [2] - The report also notes the risk of a downturn in the real estate market exceeding expectations, along with intensified market competition [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company's Q2 revenue met expectations, but profit margins faced further pressure due to fluctuations in old customer orders and the ramp-up of new factories [1] - New customer orders saw significant growth year-on-year, although some old customer orders declined due to external factors such as consumer demand in Europe and the US, and tariff uncertainties [2] - The company's gross margin fluctuated due to the efficiency ramp-up of new factories and adjustments in production capacity among older factories [3] - The company is maintaining an aggressive capacity expansion strategy, with new factories in Vietnam and Indonesia expected to enhance profitability in the coming years [4] - Profit forecasts have been adjusted downward for the current year due to uncertainties in trade environments, but a recovery in profit margins is anticipated in 2026 as new factory efficiencies improve [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 12.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, while net profit was 1.664 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.4% [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 7.31 billion yuan, up 9.0% year-on-year, with net profit at 902 million yuan, down 17.3% [1] Customer Dynamics - The company experienced a significant increase in new customer orders, primarily from brands like Adidas and New Balance, contributing to a 6.14% increase in sports shoe sales to 11.5 million pairs in H1 2025 [2] Production and Capacity - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 13.1%, down 3.2 percentage points year-on-year, with Q1 and Q2 margins at 14.2% and 12.3%, respectively [3] - The company is actively expanding production capacity with new factories, which typically take 1.5 to 2 years to reach full efficiency [4] Profit Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 26.66 billion yuan, 30.15 billion yuan, and 34.18 billion yuan, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 13%, and 13% respectively [5]

Core Viewpoint - Texas Instruments (TI) is reportedly planning another price increase, which is expected to be larger than the previous increase in June. The price hike will primarily affect industrial and automotive products [5][8]. Group 1: Price Increase News - In early August, rumors circulated that TI would raise prices again, with claims that the increase would be more significant than the one in June [3][5]. - Multiple sources indicate that TI is set to adjust the cost of over 60,000 components, effective August 4 [5][8]. - Some distributors have confirmed the authenticity of the price increase news, while others have not yet felt its impact [8][9]. Group 2: Market Performance and Demand - TI's overall market demand has been weak, with a notable decline in revenue from 20 billion USD to around 15 billion USD over the past two years, but signs of recovery have emerged in 2024 [14][16]. - The second quarter of 2025 showed a revenue increase of 16% year-over-year, with total revenue reaching approximately 4.448 billion USD [16][18]. - TI's cash flow remains strong, with operating cash flow totaling 6.44 billion USD over the past 12 months, and free cash flow improving to 1.763 billion USD [18]. Group 3: Regional Insights - In the Chinese market, TI's revenue accounted for about 20% of total revenue, with a year-over-year growth of approximately 32% in the second quarter of 2025 [19]. - The industrial sector was the main driver of revenue growth in China, with significant increases across various sub-sectors [19].

Core Viewpoint - Oriental Selection (01797) has seen its stock price rise over 80% this month, with a current increase of 7.37% to HKD 21.85, and a trading volume of HKD 1.147 billion [1] Financial Performance - Daiwa reported that Oriental Selection's Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) for the first half of fiscal year 2025 is expected to reach RMB 4.8 billion, with the "With Hui Together" channel led by Dong Yuhui contributing a quarter of this total [1] - Following Dong Yuhui's departure, the GMV has rebounded due to the expansion of sales channels, and the gross margin for self-branded products has improved to a healthy level of 21%, up from 10% in the second half of 2024 [1] Operational Strategy - The company has been reducing its workforce since December last year and expanding its product offerings to include high-margin categories such as health supplements and pet products, which is expected to further improve profit margins in the second half of fiscal year 2025 [1] - Zheshang Securities noted that after two years of challenges, the company's operations are stabilizing, and GMV is expected to turn positive by June 2025 as the high base effect diminishes [1] Market Position - Oriental Selection continues to focus on developing its key products, with GMV stabilizing and profit margins recovering, indicating significant growth potential for self-operated products [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oriental Selection (01797) has seen a significant stock price increase of over 80% this month, with a current price of HKD 21.85 and a trading volume of HKD 1.147 billion [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Daiwa reported that Oriental Selection's Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) for the first half of the 2025 fiscal year is expected to be RMB 4.8 billion, with the "With Hui Together" channel led by Dong Yuhui contributing a quarter of this total [1] - Following Dong Yuhui's departure, the GMV has rebounded due to the expansion of sales channels, indicating a recovery in performance [1] - The gross margin for self-branded products has improved to a healthy level of 21% in the first half of 2025, up from 10% in the second half of 2024, attributed to reduced discounts [1] Group 2: Strategic Developments - The company has been reducing its workforce since December last year and expanding its product range to include high-margin categories such as health supplements and pet products, which is expected to further improve profit margins in the second half of 2025 [1] - Zheshang Securities noted that after two years of challenges, the company's operations are stabilizing, and GMV is expected to turn positive by June 2025 as the high base effect diminishes [1] - Oriental Selection continues to focus on developing major products, with GMV stabilizing and profit margins recovering, indicating significant growth potential for self-operated products [1]