行 业 及 产 业 建筑材料/ 装修建材 2026 年 03 月 03 日 防水提价，看好建材春旺行情 看好 ——建材行业事件点评 本期投资提示： 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 郝子禹 A0230524060003 haozy2@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郝子禹 A0230524060003 haozy2@swsresearch.com 联系人 郝子禹 A0230524060003 haozy2@swsresearch.com 行业点评 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 相关研究 - ⚫ 防水三强陆续提价 5%-10%。东方雨虹 3 月 1 日发函：将于 3 月 15 日起对工程端沥青 卷材和沥青涂料价格统一上涨 5%-10%；科顺股份 3 月 2 日发函，3 月 15 日起，对沥 青类卷材和沥青类涂料及高分子类卷材价格上涨 5-1 ...

摘要 防水产品涨价交流 20260302 下难度较大。 近三年行业涨价函的发布与落地节奏如何，价格最终通常如何演变？ 近三年整体呈现较为稳定的"循环"特征：开年或年底通常会出现涨价预期/通 知，实际执行主要集中在 3 月 15 号之前完成预热沟通与提价推进；3 月 15 号 到 6 月中旬左右往往是相对容易推动价格上移的窗口期，原因在于客户在获取 价格与授信政策后，通常会在一定程度上接受部分调价。随后若年内销量与需 求预期偏弱，价格端可能通过特批等方式出现回落；下半年往往趋于执行相对 持平的价格政策。品类差异上，非大宗、使用占比较特殊或不常用的产品提价 后相对不易快速回落；而热熔类防水卷材、SBS、APP、自粘类卷材及防水涂 料等使用量大、价格敏感度高的大宗品种，价格波动更为频繁且更易受竞争影 响。 预计"涨 5%以内"的判断口径是什么？涨价通常只覆盖新订单还是也会影响 存量项目？ 防水材料行业计划在 3 月 1 日至 15 日与客户沟通提价，目标幅度为 5%-10%，但考虑到市场环境，实际落地 5%以内较为可行。历史数据 显示，年初或年底常有涨价预期，3 月中旬至 6 月中旬是提价窗口期， 下半年价格趋于稳 ...

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 4183 | 0.47 | 4.15 | 2.46 | | 深证综指 | 2745 | -0.68 | 4.95 | 2.41 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 0.31 | 1.9 | 4.08 | | 中盘指数 | 0.13 | 8.01 | 22.39 | | 小盘指数 | -0.68 | 6.68 | 18.08 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 油服工程 | 11.58 | 27.37 | 59.71 | | 贵金属 | 10.24 | 8.83 | 78.57 | | 炼化及贸易 | 6.96 | 14.25 | 35.96 | | 航天装备Ⅱ | 6.45 | 8.05 | 123.89 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][9]. Core Insights - The company is poised for growth, with strong pricing power and an improving industry landscape. It has been restructuring its revenue sources, significantly increasing the share of non-residential and overseas income [5][8]. - The waterproofing industry has undergone significant changes over the past five years, with a shift in demand structure and an increase in market concentration. The company is expected to benefit from these trends [8][43]. - The company's financial performance is projected to recover, with expected revenue growth and improved profit margins in the coming years [6][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 1996, the company specializes in comprehensive waterproofing solutions, covering various sectors including construction waterproofing, civil materials, and energy solutions. It has participated in major national projects [18]. - The company has a stable governance structure, with concentrated ownership among key stakeholders [20]. Industry Changes - The demand structure in the waterproofing industry has shifted, with non-residential applications gaining importance and the share of second-hand housing transactions increasing significantly [44][50]. - The industry has seen a significant reduction in competition, with market consolidation occurring faster than in other segments of the real estate chain [54]. Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is expected to recover from a projected decline in 2025, with estimates of 6.22 billion yuan in 2025, followed by growth to 6.67 billion yuan in 2026 and 7.16 billion yuan in 2027 [6][10]. - The gross margin is anticipated to improve, with a forecasted increase to 28.1% in 2026 and 29.7% in 2027, reflecting the company's focus on high-margin products [6][10]. Investment Analysis - The company's valuation is currently below that of comparable companies in the consumer building materials sector, suggesting potential for upside as the market recovers [9][10]. - The report highlights the company's strong pricing power and willingness to increase prices, which could enhance profitability as market conditions improve [8][11].

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Keshun Co., Ltd. shows a significant decline in revenue and net profit, indicating potential challenges in the company's operations and market conditions [2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - As of January 20, Keshun Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 4.703 billion yuan for the period from January to September 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8.43% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period was 20.088 million yuan, down 84.08% year-on-year [2]. - Cumulative cash dividends since the company's A-share listing amount to 6.92 billion yuan, with 5.36 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 2: Shareholder and Market Activity - As of February 6, Keshun Co., Ltd. had a total of 29,600 shareholders, a decrease of 2.39% from the previous period [2]. - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 2.45% to 29,965 shares [2]. - On February 6, the company experienced a financing buy-in of 29.2335 million yuan, with a net financing outflow of 520,700 yuan, indicating a high level of trading activity [1]. Group 3: Business Operations - Keshun Co., Ltd. specializes in the research, production, and sales of new building waterproof materials, as well as providing waterproof engineering construction services [1]. - The revenue composition of the company includes waterproof membranes (51.11%), waterproof coatings (27.10%), waterproof engineering construction (17.31%), and other products (2.61%) [1].

Group 1 - The traditional building materials industry is expected to see price increases, particularly in waterproof coatings and gypsum board products, driven by thin industry profits and improved demand post-Spring Festival [1] - In the cement sector, production management is being enforced, and strict implementation of daily production limits could enhance capacity utilization during peak seasons, leading to a potential recovery in cement prices [1] - The float glass industry is experiencing high midstream inventory pressure, but accelerated cold repairs in March and April may lead to a phase of supply-demand recovery, which could also support glass price recovery [1] Group 2 - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization and recovery, with transaction volumes expected to continue a mild recovery in March, potentially stabilizing prices as the traditional demand peak season approaches [1] - The Building Materials ETF (159745) tracks the construction materials index (931009), which reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the building materials sector, including cement, glass, and ceramics, and is closely related to the real estate market and infrastructure investment [1]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating an expected performance that exceeds the market by more than 5% over the next six months [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that electronic fabric prices are increasing even during the off-season, with significant price hikes observed in January 2026. This trend is attributed to high demand from downstream AI applications, leading to a production shift towards high-end products, creating a capacity gap for traditional fabrics [4][3]. - The traditional building materials sector is also experiencing price increases, driven by a need for profitability amidst thin margins. Companies like Yuhong and Keshun have already raised prices for waterproof coatings, and this trend is expected to continue as demand improves post-holiday [4]. - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with increased transactions in key cities and a reduction in listings. This recovery is anticipated to support price stabilization as the market enters the traditional demand peak in March [4]. Summary by Sections Electronic Fabric Market - Prices for electronic fabrics and yarns have risen significantly, with Linzhou Guangyuan's mainstream price for electronic fabric reported at 5.3-5.5 yuan/meter, up from 4.8-4.9 yuan/meter at the end of January [4]. - The ongoing price increases are expected to continue into the peak demand season of March and April 2026 [4]. Traditional Building Materials - The report notes that major companies in the building materials sector are actively pursuing price increases, with a focus on waterproof coatings and gypsum board products [4]. - The report suggests that if production limits are strictly enforced, it could lead to improved capacity utilization and price recovery in the cement market [4]. Real Estate Market - The report indicates a recovery in the real estate market, with a notable increase in second-hand home transactions in major cities and a decrease in listings [4]. - It emphasizes the expectation of supportive policies in 2026, particularly regarding mortgage rate adjustments, which could further stabilize the market [4].

Summary of Dongfang Yuhong Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Dongfang Yuhong - **Industry**: Waterproofing materials and construction materials Key Points Market Expansion and Revenue Growth - Dongfang Yuhong has significantly increased its market share and concentration by expanding into non-real estate sectors such as water conservancy projects and old housing renovations, effectively countering the decline in the real estate market [2][3] - The Public Construction Group faced revenue challenges due to business adjustments, including the abandonment of major real estate clients, but the revenue decline has narrowed, with expectations of stabilization by 2026 [2][3] - The Civil Construction Group maintained over 9 billion in revenue through rapid growth in new categories like membrane repair and special mortars, with continued expansion into new categories and lower-tier markets expected to stabilize revenue [2][3] - The Sand Powder Group achieved rapid growth, with sales reaching 12 million tons in 2025, a 50% increase, and aims for 20 million tons in 2026, optimizing product structure to enhance gross margins [2][6][7] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively penetrating lower-tier markets through initiatives like the New Farmer Program and local market events, aiming to tap into growth potential in rural areas amidst overall C-end demand pressure [2][4] - Product category expansion is a key strategy, with new categories such as membrane repair and adhesives being introduced to counteract market changes, as existing C-end market share is already substantial [5] International Development - The Overseas Development Group focuses on trade, investment, and acquisitions, targeting North America, South America, Asia-Pacific, and the Middle East and Africa, with revenue projected to reach 4 billion in 2026 [2][8][10] - Successful entry into the Mexican market through partnerships, such as with Home Depot, has laid a foundation for future international expansion [9][10] Competitive Landscape - The waterproofing industry has seen intense competition, particularly price wars, leading to a need for effective price negotiation mechanisms among leading companies [11][12] - Despite some price adjustments, the lack of a cohesive pricing strategy has hindered significant price increases in the market [12][13] - In 2026, there is potential for establishing effective price negotiation mechanisms, as major companies express a desire to stabilize and improve profit margins [14] Financial Management - The company has successfully addressed historical accounts receivable issues, with expectations of continued improvement in 2026, allowing for a more streamlined operational approach [17] - Cost control measures have been implemented, with a projected decrease in overall expense ratios due to strict budget management and improved revenue performance [16] Coverage and Market Presence - Dongfang Yuhong has established a presence in county-level markets but aims to enhance coverage in rural areas, indicating significant growth potential in the coming years [15]

Summary of Conference Call for Dongfang Yuhong Company Overview - **Company**: Dongfang Yuhong - **Industry**: Waterproofing and construction materials Key Points and Arguments Industry Demand and Market Share - The industry is experiencing a downward trend in demand for 2025, but there is a noticeable improvement in the competitive landscape, leading to an accelerated increase in market share for leading companies [2][3] - Dongfang Yuhong's sales of waterproof membranes exceeded 800 million square meters in the previous year, marking a 10% increase from 2024, setting a new annual sales record [2] Revenue and Pricing Pressure - Despite the pressure on average prices in 2025 compared to 2024, the overall revenue decline is minimal, with a slight decrease in the single-digit range [4] - The company faced significant price reductions in the second half of 2024 due to intense competition, impacting the average price in 2025 [3][4] Business Group Performance - The construction materials group has seen a revenue decline of approximately 8% compared to the same period in 2024, but there are positive marginal changes due to market adjustments and customer structure optimization [4][5] - The public construction group's revenue decline has narrowed significantly in the second half of 2025, indicating a potential stabilization in 2026 [6][7] Retail and Consumer Market - The retail segment, particularly the civil construction materials group, experienced a slight revenue decline, attributed to pressures in the retail market and housing sales [8][9] - Despite challenges, the retail segment is expected to maintain stability and possibly achieve growth through targeted strategies in rural markets and product diversification [12][36] New Product Development and Market Strategy - The company aims to increase the proportion of new waterproof products in its revenue to over 25% in 2026, which is expected to enhance overall profit margins [31][32] - Emphasis on developing products tailored for self-built homes in rural areas as part of a strategy to penetrate the lower-tier markets [36][37] Growth Opportunities - The sand powder group has become a leading player in the industry, with sales reaching 12 million tons, a significant increase from 8 million tons in 2024 [14] - The overseas development group is seen as a crucial growth engine, with plans to expand through acquisitions and partnerships in international markets [17][23] Competitive Landscape and Pricing Strategy - The competitive landscape has improved, with a clearer market structure among leading companies, which may reduce the likelihood of price wars [26][28] - The company is exploring mechanisms for price cooperation among leading firms to stabilize pricing and improve profit margins [33][34] Financial Outlook - The overall revenue for Dongfang Yuhong is expected to show significant improvement in 2026, driven by stabilization in public construction and growth in the sand powder and overseas development segments [24][25] Additional Important Insights - The company is focusing on optimizing its product structure to enhance gross margins, particularly in the industrial products sector [15][16] - The transition from a focus on construction materials to industrial applications is seen as a key growth area, with potential for higher profit margins [15][16] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, market challenges, and growth opportunities.

Group 1 - On February 2, Keshun Co., Ltd. experienced a decline of 6.46% in stock price, with a trading volume of 294 million yuan. The margin trading data indicated a financing purchase amount of 29.66 million yuan and a net financing purchase of 12.23 million yuan for the day [1] - As of February 2, the total margin trading balance for Keshun Co., Ltd. was 239 million yuan, with the financing balance accounting for 3.23% of the circulating market value, indicating a high level compared to the past year [1] - The company’s main business includes the research, production, and sales of new building waterproof materials, with revenue composition as follows: waterproof membranes 51.11%, waterproof coatings 27.10%, waterproof engineering construction 17.31%, and others 4.49% [1] Group 2 - As of December 10, the number of shareholders for Keshun Co., Ltd. was 29,100, a decrease of 1.38% from the previous period, while the average circulating shares per person increased by 1.40% to 30,450 shares [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, Keshun Co., Ltd. reported an operating income of 4.703 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 20.09 million yuan, down 84.08% year-on-year [2] Group 3 - Keshun Co., Ltd. has distributed a total of 692 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 536 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3] - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders included Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited as the sixth largest shareholder with 21.58 million shares, a new entry, while other institutional holdings showed changes in share quantities among the top ten shareholders [3]