今日早参 2026 年 3 月 03 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：开年出行活跃、地产成交环比改善 春节假期居民消费、出行需求旺盛，个性化、体验性需求快速释放；节后复 工复产情况好于去年同期，上海发布楼市新政"沪七条"、率先拉开节后地 产政策调整序幕，地产成交（尤其是二手房）初现边际企稳迹象；外需方 面，1-2 月港口高频指标显示出口同比或较 12 月继续上行。出行及消费方 面，春运前 27 天（2 月 2-28 日）全社会跨区域人员流动量同比增长 5.9%， 其中铁路/公路/水路/民航发送人员同比增长 7.4%/5.7%/19.7%/6.3%；春节 假期国内居民旅游人次/收入同比增长 19%/18.7%，商务部数据显示智能眼 镜、具身智能机器人销售额同比分别增长 47.3%、32.7%，入境游产品订单 同比增长 18.4%。出口方面，高频指标显示偏高基数下 1-2 月出口同比增速 或较 12 月回升至 12%。节后复工复产进度好于同期：农历春节对齐后，百 年建筑网全国工地复工率/劳务上工率分别高于去 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, as a leading player in the waterproofing industry, is committed to providing high-standard products and services, with its offerings included in the recommended list by regulatory authorities [2] Group 1: Company Performance - Current performance fluctuations are primarily influenced by the slow recovery of demand in the construction waterproofing sector, the company's proactive optimization of its business structure to reduce the proportion of risky operations, and the prudent approach of provisioning for credit and asset impairments [2] - These factors reflect the cyclical adjustments in the industry and the company's strategic transformation phase [2] Group 2: Management Strategy - Under the leadership of the board, the company adheres strictly to corporate governance practices and is committed to high-quality development strategies [2] - The focus is on retail, construction, and overseas market expansion, alongside strengthening accounts receivable management and cost control to enhance operational quality [2] Group 3: Shareholder Engagement - The company places significant importance on the opinions of all shareholders and aims to fulfill its responsibilities to investors through standardized operations and continuous improvements [2] - The commitment is towards achieving long-term stable development [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company Dongfang Yuhong (002271.SZ) has successfully passed the B1-level fire performance testing for its 1.5mm and 1.8mm enhanced TPO waterproof membranes under the new national standard GB 8624—2025, marking a significant breakthrough in balancing waterproof and fireproof properties in flexible waterproof materials [1][11]. Group 1: New National Standard - The new national standard GB 8624—2025, set to be fully implemented on January 1, 2027, introduces a dedicated category for "roof covering materials and products," defining the fire performance grading for roofing waterproof membranes [3]. - This standard aims to fill the gap in fire safety standards for roofing materials, raising industry entry barriers and favoring companies with technological advantages [3][11]. Group 2: Technical Breakthrough - The enhanced TPO products are the result of deep optimization of formulations and performance by the company's R&D team, achieving a balance between waterproof and fireproof properties while maintaining low water absorption and excellent outdoor weather resistance [9][10]. - Dongfang Yuhong has established a comprehensive innovation system from basic research to technology transfer, supported by long-term R&D investments since 2009 [7]. Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - The company has received multiple awards for its TPO applications, reinforcing its market reputation and demonstrating the long-term reliability of its products [10]. - Recent strategic collaborations, such as with Shanghai Huaneng Clean Energy, aim to expand the application of TPO systems in clean energy projects, further enhancing market reach [10][11]. - The company is also progressing with its Houston base in the U.S., which will achieve a production capacity of 50 million square meters of TPO waterproof membranes [10].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Keshun Co., Ltd. (SZ300737) reached its daily limit with a price of 6.96 yuan, marking a 20% increase and a total market capitalization of 7.725 billion yuan [1] - The reasons for the stock surge include strong financial management, improved cash flow, and favorable real estate policies that may boost demand in the waterproofing industry [2] - Keshun Co., Ltd. provides comprehensive waterproofing solutions, and the recent positive trends in the real estate sector are expected to benefit its business development [2] Group 2 - The company has shown a 46.03% year-on-year improvement in net cash flow from operating activities, which has contributed to the stock price increase [2] - The adjustment of convertible bond conversion prices has enhanced their attractiveness, reflecting the company's confidence in long-term value [2] - Technical indicators such as MACD forming a golden cross and the stock price breaking through significant resistance levels may attract technical investors, further driving the stock price up [2]

Group 1 - The domestic waterproofing industry is experiencing accelerated clearing and optimization, with leading companies increasing their market share as prices recover from a low point [1] - Under multiple pressures such as downstream demand adjustments, regulatory upgrades, and stricter environmental standards, waterproofing prices have bottomed out, leading to the exit of small and medium-sized enterprises and a concentration of market share among top companies [1] - Oriental Yuhong, as the industry leader, has strengthened its market position, with its market share increasing from 15.8% in 2019 to 22.0% in 2024 [1] Group 2 - The company is expected to benefit in the short term from industry profit recovery and improved operational quality, while in the medium to long term, it will gain new growth potential from expanding product categories and accelerating overseas strategies [1] - A target price of 17.73 CNY per share is set for 2025, based on a 25 times price-to-earnings ratio, maintaining a "buy" rating for the company [1]

Group 1: Waterproof Industry Insights - The waterproof industry has experienced the most severe clearing among consumer building materials, with the top four companies expected to capture nearly 50% market share by 2024 [3][4] - The industry's profitability is at a bottom position, with leading companies nearing breakeven in B-end engineering business, indicating potential for recovery in 2026 as price stabilization and recovery attempts begin [3][4] - The rapid increase in industry concentration reduces unnecessary price competition and enhances the feasibility of price increases among leading firms [4] Group 2: Future Profitability and Market Dynamics - In 2026, the industry is expected to continue attempts at price recovery, supported by lower asphalt prices at the beginning of the year, which will aid in profitability improvement [5] - The improvement in competition dynamics is anticipated to positively impact sales expenses, employee numbers, and accounts receivable turnover days for major companies [5] - Major companies are diversifying their business expansion beyond traditional domestic waterproof engineering, which may further enhance their market position [5] Group 3: Aviation Industry Outlook - The Chinese civil aviation sector is projected to continue recovering in 2025, with passenger traffic expected to grow by 5-6%, leading to a significant reduction in losses and potential profitability [10] - The supply side is entering a low-growth phase, with fleet size expected to increase by approximately 3.7% by November 2025, while passenger load factors are anticipated to reach historical highs [10][11] - The industry is expected to experience a "super cycle" starting in 2026, driven by steady demand growth and a recovery in customer structure, which will support price and profitability increases [12]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 China International Roofing and Building Waterproofing Technology Exhibition, themed "Good Waterproof, Good House, Good Future," showcases the comprehensive strength of Dongfang Yuhong, attracting numerous experts and clients for in-depth exchanges [1][3]. Group 1: Exhibition Highlights - Dongfang Yuhong's exhibition design incorporates international styles and brand culture, demonstrating the company's achievements in technological innovation, development layout, and industrial ecology over 30 years [3]. - The exhibition covers the entire industry chain from basic waterproof materials to high-end system solutions, showcasing core product series, classic engineering cases, and overseas market expansion results [3][4]. - The company aims to become the most valuable enterprise in the global building materials industry, driven by technological innovation and global vision [3][9]. Group 2: Product Innovations - Tian Ding Feng, a subsidiary of Dongfang Yuhong, independently showcased its core technologies and customized solutions in the non-woven fabric sector, including a high-strength polypropylene geotextile that has been successfully applied in major projects like Beijing Daxing International Airport [4]. - The exhibition featured a diverse range of roofing solutions, including integrated photovoltaic tiles and various types of roofing materials, attracting global attention [4]. Group 3: Forum Insights - The 2025 International Waterproof High-end Forum emphasized the importance of technological innovation for sustainable development in the waterproofing industry, advocating for collaborative innovation across the entire industry chain [5][7]. - Experts from Dongfang Yuhong shared insights on service standardization and green high-performance waterproof product solutions, highlighting the company's latest breakthroughs in environmentally friendly materials [7]. Group 4: Global Recognition - Dongfang Yuhong's international market integration is a key path for achieving high-quality growth, transitioning from product export to technology export and from single-item output to system services [8]. - The company received multiple awards at the exhibition, including recognition for its innovative products and services, enhancing its global competitiveness [8]. Group 5: Future Vision - Dongfang Yuhong is committed to creating a lasting safe environment for humanity and society, driving development through innovation and building a safe barrier for a better life in collaboration with global partners [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue at 4.7 billion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year, and net profit at 20 million yuan, down 84.1% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Revenue for the third quarter was 1.48 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.9% compared to the same period last year, with a net profit of -30 million yuan, down from 30 million yuan in the previous year [1] - The decline in revenue is attributed to a reduction in domestic engineering construction projects and slower project progress, leading to decreased demand in the waterproof market [2] - The net profit decline exceeded the revenue decline due to increased credit impairment provisions and reduced other income and non-operating income [2] Group 2: Margin and Cost Management - The gross profit margin improved to 24.3% in the first three quarters, up from 23.0% in the same period last year, driven by an optimized revenue structure and growth in high-margin overseas and retail businesses [2] - The company has reduced financial expenses from 70 million yuan in the previous year to 40 million yuan, and sales expenses also saw a slight decline [2] Group 3: Cash Flow and Receivables - Operating cash flow showed significant improvement, with a net cash flow from operating activities of -820 million yuan, better than -1.5 billion yuan in the previous year, due to enhanced collection of receivables and optimized supplier payment methods [2] - Accounts receivable at the end of the period stood at 4.07 billion yuan, down from 4.73 billion yuan in the previous year [2] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 50 million yuan, 230 million yuan, and 370 million yuan respectively, down from previous estimates [3] - Despite the downward revision, macro-level support policies for real estate and infrastructure are expected to boost industry confidence, and the waterproof industry is closely linked to new real estate projects [3] - As a leading player in the waterproof sector, the company maintains advantages in brand, channel, and customer resources, and is expected to stabilize its scale during the industry downturn [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and net profit due to continued weak downstream demand and tightened credit policies. The gross margin has improved slightly due to stable raw material prices and ongoing optimization of product and channel structures [7] - The company has proactively adjusted product prices in response to market conditions, indicating a potential recovery in profitability as the competitive landscape improves. This includes price increases of 3%-13% for certain waterproof coatings and 3%-7% for waterproof membranes [7] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 shows a recovery trend, with expected net profits of 0.42 million, 1.28 million, and 2.09 million respectively, reflecting growth rates of -5.81%, 207.23%, and 64.19% [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.703 billion, a decrease of 8.43% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.20 billion, down 84.08% year-on-year. The Q3 revenue was 1.483 billion, down 10.93% year-on-year, with a net profit of -0.27 billion [7] - The company's gross margin for Q3 was 23.56%, an increase of 1.38 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating cash flow showed a net outflow of 0.824 billion, which improved by 0.680 billion year-on-year [7][8] - The financial forecasts indicate a revenue decline in 2024 and 2025, with expected revenues of 6.829 billion and 6.327 billion respectively, followed by a recovery in 2026 and 2027 [6][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is experiencing revenue pressure due to a contraction in demand, with a proactive tightening of engineering business operations. The revenue for 1H2025 was 3.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.23%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 47 million yuan, down 49.98% [7][9] - The overall gross margin improved to 24.68%, an increase of 1.23 percentage points, attributed to the company's focus on high-end markets and premium projects, as well as a 2.18% decrease in raw material costs [7][9] - The company has announced price increases for certain waterproofing products, which is seen as a response to raw material pressures and a move to combat low-price competition in the industry [9] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue forecast for 2025 is 6.48 billion yuan, with a projected decline of 5.17% year-on-year, followed by a recovery in 2026 and 2027 with growth rates of 10.34% and 10.39% respectively [6][10] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 93 million yuan in 2025, with significant growth projected in the following years, reaching 264 million yuan by 2027 [6][10] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.08 yuan in 2025, increasing to 0.24 yuan by 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 63.18x, 32.18x, and 22.35x for the next three years [6][10] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a performance of -4% over the last 12 months, compared to a 10% increase in the market benchmark [4]