Report Summary - The report focuses on the possible adjustment path of the term structure of interest-bearing bonds in 2026, analyzing local government bond issuance plans and related influencing factors [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - There is currently no evidence of changes in local government bond issuance terms from the plans of individual provinces; the adjustment space for general bonds is limited, and special bonds need adjustment, but the terms of special bonds for replacing implicit debts have always been long; historically, the issuance terms were adjusted downward after local government bonds "soared" in October 2023, but the current situation is different; in terms of national debt supply, the terms of general national debt have significantly shortened, and special national debt is the key focus [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Shandong's 2026 First Batch of Local Bond Issuance Plan - On December 26, Shandong announced its first batch of local bond issuance plans for 2026, with a total of 72.381 billion yuan of special bonds to be issued on January 5, 2026, with a weighted average term of 21 years. Among them, the new special bonds are 46.772 billion yuan, and the proportions of 10Y, 15Y, and 30Y are 16.2%, 25.3%, and 48.5% respectively; the refinancing special bonds for replacing implicit debts are 25.609 billion yuan, and the proportions of 10Y, 15Y, and 30Y are 6.6%, 47.0%, and 46.4% respectively. Compared with the first quarter of 2025, the term structure is relatively similar [2] Term Structure of Local Bond Issuance Plans of Announced Provinces - As of December 30, 24 regions have announced their local bond issuance plans for the first quarter or January of 2026, with a total amount of 1.88 trillion yuan. Some regions have reduced ultra-long-term varieties in their issuance plans compared with the first quarter of 2025. Local government general bonds have a relatively stable overall issuance term and limited adjustment space, while the terms of new, implicit debt replacement, and special refinancing special bonds have significantly lengthened in the past five years and have some adjustment space [2] Factors Affecting Local Bond Issuance Terms - In 2023, the weighted average issuance term of overall government bonds decreased, with the proportion of bonds over 10Y decreasing. The local bond issuance spread is a key indicator. Since June 2021, the average issuance spread of local bonds has significantly declined, but it increased in October 2023, and the issuance terms of general and special bonds decreased. In terms of national debt supply, the terms of general national debt have significantly shortened in recent years, while special national debt is the main provider of ultra-long bonds [2][3]