文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：殷雯卿（19945767933） 核心观点 随着大美丽法案落地，美国债务上限问题得以解决，市场开始担忧三季度美国国债供给是否会大幅增加，并重演 2023Q3 利率快速冲高的情况。从国债净发行压力 来看， Q3 国债净发行额可能需要达到 1.12 万亿美元，仅次于 2020Q2 ，规模接近 2023Q3 财政部实际融资额（ 1.01 万亿美元），供给压力确实很大。但从历史 复盘来看，一则这一次美债发行大幅增长市场已有充分预期、二则利率快速走高也需要经济增长持续超预期来推波助澜，因此 2025Q3 不一定会重演 2023Q3 的利 率快速冲高。但 2023Q3 利率冲高后倒逼美联储结束加息周期，因此如果今年 Q3 美债利率同样出现大幅抬升，或倒逼美联储加速重启其宽松周期。 报告摘要 1 、 Q3 国债净发行压力有多大？或仅次于 2020Q2 国债净发行额≈财政赤字 +TGA 余额变动（财政部期末现金余额目标 - 期初现金余额）。 基于这一公式，根据 CBO 预测值， 2025Q3 财政赤字 =0.6 万亿美元， ...

Debt Issuance Pressure - The estimated net issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds for Q3 2025 is approximately $1.12 trillion, second only to Q2 2020, indicating significant supply pressure[2] - This figure exceeds the actual financing amount of $1.01 trillion in Q3 2023, suggesting a substantial increase in issuance pressure[11] - The projected fiscal deficit for Q3 2025 is $0.6 trillion, with a TGA net increase of $0.52 trillion contributing to the net issuance estimate[11] Historical Context - The supply panic in Q3 2023 was primarily due to actual financing of $1.01 trillion significantly exceeding the expected $0.85 trillion[27] - The low TGA balance at the start of Q3 2023 (actual $148 billion vs. expected $408.6 billion) contributed to the unexpected financing pressure[27] - Historical data suggests that the overall debt maturity pressure for Q3 2025 is not significantly elevated compared to previous periods[37] Interest Rate Dynamics - Rising Treasury yields in 2023 were influenced by stronger-than-expected economic data and hawkish Federal Reserve policies[3] - If similar yield increases occur in Q3 2025, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to accelerate its easing cycle[36] - The market anticipates that the significant increase in bond supply for Q3 2025 will not lead to a repeat of the panic seen in Q3 2023 due to better expectations[28] Debt Structure Adjustments - Adjusting the issuance structure by increasing short-term debt may alleviate some pressure on long-term bond supply, but not entirely[51] - The total estimated debt issuance for FY 2025 is $30.6 trillion, with Q3 2025 expected to account for $8.32 trillion of this total[45] - The proportion of short-term debt has been increasing, with the long-term debt issuance ratio dropping to around 16%[47]

Group 1 - The first issuance of a 50-year special government bond in 2023 had a weighted average winning rate of 2.1%, which is higher than the yield of similar maturity bonds in the interbank market and up by approximately 19 basis points from the low point in February [2][3] - The Ministry of Finance issued a total of 390 billion yuan in government bonds on May 23, with a cumulative issuance of 4.69 trillion yuan in the first four months of this year, exceeding the same period last year by over 1 trillion yuan [2][7] - The issuance of the 50-year special government bond was met with weak demand, as indicated by the higher winning rate compared to the secondary market, suggesting a lack of strong market sentiment [3][5] Group 2 - Following the announcement of the bidding results, long-term bond yields in the secondary market rose significantly, with the 24 special government bond yield increasing to 2.07% before settling at 2.055% [4] - The market experienced a "first suppress then rise" pattern due to supply shocks from government bonds, with the 10-year bond weighted rate at 1.67% aligning with expectations, while the 50-year bond's rate was 7 basis points higher than the secondary market [5][8] - The central bank's actions, including a 500 billion yuan MLF operation, indicate a focus on maintaining liquidity in the face of increased government bond supply [8][9] Group 3 - The issuance of government bonds has surged this year, with a total of 10.56 trillion yuan in interest rate bonds issued in the first four months, marking an increase of 3.31 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [7] - The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in super long-term special government bonds this year, an increase of 300 billion yuan from last year, alongside 500 billion yuan in special bonds to support state-owned banks [7][9] - Analysts suggest that the market's focus will shift to the balance of supply and demand, with the central bank's stance on monetary policy being crucial for maintaining a stable funding environment [6][8]