新华财经北京1月9日电债市周五（1月9日）偏弱整理，上日热情表现在股市强势之下被快速挤压，国债 期货主力小幅收跌，银行间现券收益率早间部分延续回落，午后仅超长债占优，其他期限收益率回升 1BP左右；公开市场单日净投放340亿元，资金利率走势延续分化。 机构认为，需要关注更多经济数据，以判断经济基本面是否在发生变化。开年后流动性充盈，市场资金 需求亦火热，质押式回购成交接近8.9万亿元创新高。而随着成交量的快速攀升，资金供需基本已达平 衡状态，市场利率仍会保持相对稳定。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.07%报110.87，10年期主力合约跌0.02%报107.765，5年期 主力合约跌0.03%报105.57，2年期主力合约跌0.03%报102.336。 银行间主要利率债收益率窄幅波动，超长端表现稍优，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率下行 0.6BP报2.3085%，10年期国开债"25国开15"收益率持平报1.975%，10年期国债"25附息国债16"收益率上 行0.1BP报1.889%。 中证转债指数收盘上涨0.89%，报513.79点，成交金额1012.05亿元。声迅 ...

Report Summary - The report focuses on the possible adjustment path of the term structure of interest-bearing bonds in 2026, analyzing local government bond issuance plans and related influencing factors [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - There is currently no evidence of changes in local government bond issuance terms from the plans of individual provinces; the adjustment space for general bonds is limited, and special bonds need adjustment, but the terms of special bonds for replacing implicit debts have always been long; historically, the issuance terms were adjusted downward after local government bonds "soared" in October 2023, but the current situation is different; in terms of national debt supply, the terms of general national debt have significantly shortened, and special national debt is the key focus [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Shandong's 2026 First Batch of Local Bond Issuance Plan - On December 26, Shandong announced its first batch of local bond issuance plans for 2026, with a total of 72.381 billion yuan of special bonds to be issued on January 5, 2026, with a weighted average term of 21 years. Among them, the new special bonds are 46.772 billion yuan, and the proportions of 10Y, 15Y, and 30Y are 16.2%, 25.3%, and 48.5% respectively; the refinancing special bonds for replacing implicit debts are 25.609 billion yuan, and the proportions of 10Y, 15Y, and 30Y are 6.6%, 47.0%, and 46.4% respectively. Compared with the first quarter of 2025, the term structure is relatively similar [2] Term Structure of Local Bond Issuance Plans of Announced Provinces - As of December 30, 24 regions have announced their local bond issuance plans for the first quarter or January of 2026, with a total amount of 1.88 trillion yuan. Some regions have reduced ultra-long-term varieties in their issuance plans compared with the first quarter of 2025. Local government general bonds have a relatively stable overall issuance term and limited adjustment space, while the terms of new, implicit debt replacement, and special refinancing special bonds have significantly lengthened in the past five years and have some adjustment space [2] Factors Affecting Local Bond Issuance Terms - In 2023, the weighted average issuance term of overall government bonds decreased, with the proportion of bonds over 10Y decreasing. The local bond issuance spread is a key indicator. Since June 2021, the average issuance spread of local bonds has significantly declined, but it increased in October 2023, and the issuance terms of general and special bonds decreased. In terms of national debt supply, the terms of general national debt have significantly shortened in recent years, while special national debt is the main provider of ultra-long bonds [2][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds. In the primary market, there are changes in net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, and fundraising directions. In the secondary market, the secondary spreads and trading volume of local government bonds have their own characteristics. [1][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 40 billion yuan, with a net financing decrease of 34.2 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net financing was 28.1 billion yuan, including 6 billion yuan in new general bonds, 29.3 billion yuan in new special bonds, 3.9 billion yuan in refinancing general bonds, and 0.9 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds. Next week, the planned issuance is 2 billion yuan, with a repayment of 5.2 billion yuan and a net repayment of 3.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 64.1 billion yuan compared to the previous week. [1][3] - **Issuance Terms**: This week, the 10 - year local government bonds had the highest issuance proportion (36%), and the proportion of 10 - year and above issuances was 87%, showing an increase compared to the previous week. The issuance proportions of 7 - year, 10 - year, 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year local government bonds were 5%, 36%, 18%, 7%, and 26% respectively. The issuance proportion of 30 - year local government bonds increased significantly, while that of 20 - year local government bonds decreased by about 14 percentage points. [1] - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: No special refinancing bonds were issued this week. In 2025, 34 regions have disclosed plans to issue a total of 2,298.2 billion yuan in special refinancing bonds, including 2,000 billion yuan in special bonds for replacing implicit debts. Among them, Jiangsu, Hunan, Henan, and Guizhou have 251.1 billion yuan, 128.8 billion yuan, 122.7 billion yuan, and 117.6 billion yuan respectively. This week, 1.2 billion yuan in special special bonds were issued. As of the end of this week, 1,366.8 billion yuan in special special bonds have been disclosed for issuance in 2025. [2][19] - **Issuance Spreads**: This week, the weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds was 20.7bp, widening compared to the previous week. The 15 - year local government bonds had the highest weighted average issuance spread, reaching 25bp. The weighted average issuance spreads of 3 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year local government bonds narrowed, while those of the rest widened. Guangxi, Yunnan, and Xinjiang had weighted average issuance spreads exceeding 20bp. [2] - **Fundraising Directions**: As of the end of this week, the main fundraising directions of new special bonds since 2025 have been cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (28%), transportation infrastructure (17%), land reserve (17%), affordable housing projects (11%), and social undertakings (11%). Compared with 2024, the proportion of land reserve (+17.1%) increased significantly, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (-8.5%) decreased significantly. [2] - **Issuance Plans**: As of the end of this week, 34 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the fourth quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance scale in October and November, the total disclosed issuance scale for the fourth quarter is about 1.65 trillion yuan, with 176 billion yuan in December. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the fourth quarter is 935.7 billion yuan and 713.5 billion yuan respectively. Additionally, 18 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the first quarter of 2026, with a total disclosed issuance scale of about 1.07 trillion yuan, including 571.6 billion yuan in January. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the first quarter is 439.6 billion yuan and 625.7 billion yuan respectively. [3] 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 15 - year local government bonds were relatively high, and the secondary spread of 1 - year local government bonds narrowed. The secondary spreads of 3 - year and 15 - year local government bonds reached 18.9bp and 18.7bp respectively. From the perspective of the historical quantile in the past three years, the historical quantiles of the secondary spreads of 3 - year and 30 - year local government bonds were relatively high, at 79% and 55% respectively. Regionally, the secondary spreads of 10 - 15 - year local government bonds in strong and medium - strength regions were relatively high, both above 16bp, and the 3 - 5 - year local government bonds in each region also had relatively high secondary spreads. [5] - **Trading Volume**: This week, both the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased compared to the previous week. The local government bonds in Ningxia and Shenzhen had relatively high turnover rates. The trading volume of local government bonds this week reached 432 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.79%. Among them, the trading volume of Guangdong's local government bonds was large, reaching 40.5 billion yuan; the turnover rates of Ningxia and Shenzhen's local government bonds were relatively high, both reaching 2.3%. [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, local government bond issuance volume decreased, and net financing also decreased. The weighted - average issuance spread widened, and the proportion of long - term issuance increased. The proportion of funds allocated to land reserves in new special bonds increased [1][23][25]. - In the secondary market, the secondary spread of 15Y local government bonds was relatively high, and the spread of 20Y, 10Y, 1Y, and 5Y local government bonds narrowed significantly. The trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased, with relatively high turnover rates in Hebei, Qingdao, and Hunan [6][33][38]. 3. Summary according to the Directory 3.1 First - level Market Issuance Situation - **Net financing**: This week, local government bond issuance was 914 billion yuan, with a repayment of 1052 billion yuan and a net repayment of 137 billion yuan, indicating a decrease in issuance volume and net financing [1]. - **Issuance term**: The issuance proportion of 10Y local government bonds was the highest at 65%, and the proportion of 10Y and above issuance was 84%, showing an increase compared to last week. The proportion of 10Y issuance increased by about 38 percentage points, while the proportions of 5Y and 30Y issuance decreased by about 18 percentage points [1][12]. - **Local government bonds related to debt resolution**: This week, 1.2 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds were issued. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing hidden debts, totaling 1907.5 billion yuan [15]. - **Issuance spread**: The weighted - average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 20.4bp, wider than last week. The weighted - average issuance spread of 15Y local government bonds was the highest at 27.4bp, and the spreads of all maturities widened [23]. - **Allocation of raised funds**: As of the end of this week, the main allocation directions of new special bond funds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (25%), social undertakings (18%), affordable housing projects (18%), transportation infrastructure (15%), and land reserves (11%). The proportion of land reserve allocation increased by 10.7% compared to 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 12.3% [2][25]. - **Issuance plan**: As of the end of this week, 35 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance volume in July, the total planned issuance volume for the third quarter is expected to reach 2.85 trillion yuan, with 963.3 billion yuan planned for August. Next week, the planned issuance is 369.2 billion yuan, with a repayment of 160.4 billion yuan and a net financing of 208.8 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 222.5 billion yuan [3][28][30]. 3.2 Secondary - market Situation - **Secondary spread**: The secondary spread of 15Y local government bonds was relatively high at 16.5bp. The spreads of 20Y, 10Y, 1Y, and 5Y local government bonds narrowed significantly. From a historical percentile perspective in the past three years, the historical percentiles of 1Y and 3Y local government bond secondary spreads were relatively high, both reaching 45% [6][33]. - **Trading situation**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased compared to last week. The turnover rates of local government bonds in Hebei, Qingdao, and Hunan were relatively high. The trading volume reached 349.1 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.66%. Shandong, Sichuan, Hebei, and Hunan had large trading volumes, and the turnover rates in Hebei, Qingdao, and Hunan were all above 1.4% [6][38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in the week of July 06, 2025. It points out that the net financing of local government bonds decreased in the primary market, with long - term issuance proportion declining, the issuance spread narrowing, and the proportion of land reserve investment increasing. In the secondary market, the secondary spreads of 3Y and 15Y local government bonds are advantageous, and the trading volume and turnover rate have slightly increased [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: This week, local government bonds issued a total of 721 billion yuan, with a repayment of 505 billion yuan and a net financing of 216 billion yuan. The issuance volume and net financing decreased [1]. - **Issuance Term**: The issuance proportion of 10Y local government bonds was the highest at 21%, and the proportion of 10Y and above decreased to 69% compared with last week. The issuance proportion of 20Y local government bonds decreased significantly by about 8 percentage points [1]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Government Bonds**: No special refinancing bonds were issued this week. In 2025, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing implicit debts, totaling 18,246 billion yuan. Among them, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, and Guizhou plan to issue 2,511 billion yuan, 1,148 billion yuan, 1,113 billion yuan, and 1,059 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Issuance Spread**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds this week was 8.6bp, narrowing compared with last week. The weighted average issuance spread of 30Y local government bonds was the highest at 12.9bp. Except for the 3Y and 5Y local government bonds, the issuance spreads of other terms narrowed [1]. - **Fund - Raising Direction**: As of the end of this week, the main investment directions of newly - added special bonds in 2025 were cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction (30%), transportation infrastructure (20%), affordable housing projects (13%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserve investment increased by 11.3% compared with 2024, while that of cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure construction decreased by 7.2% [2]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 30 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the third quarter of 2025, with a total of 2.62 trillion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance in July is 12,796 billion yuan. The planned issuance of new bonds and refinancing bonds in the third quarter is 16,585 billion yuan and 9,623 billion yuan respectively. Next week, the planned issuance of local government bonds is 2,250 billion yuan, with a repayment of 1,216 billion yuan and a net financing of 1,034 billion yuan, an increase of 818 billion yuan compared with this week [3]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spread**: This week, the secondary spreads of 3Y and 15Y local government bonds are advantageous, and the secondary spreads of local government bonds over 10Y narrowed significantly. The secondary spreads of 3Y and 15Y local government bonds are relatively high, reaching 16.9bp and 15.8bp respectively. From the historical quantile of the past 3 years, the historical quantile of the secondary spread of 30Y local government bonds is relatively high at 68%. Regionally, the secondary spreads of local government bonds over 20Y and 3 - 5Y in various regions are relatively high [4][5]. - **Trading Situation**: This week, the trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds increased slightly compared with last week. The turnover rates of local government bonds in Sichuan, Jiangxi, and Fujian are relatively high. The trading volume of local government bonds this week reached 5,475 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 1.06%. Sichuan had the highest turnover rate at 7.0%, and the turnover rates in Jiangxi, Fujian, Guangdong, Hunan and other places were at relatively high levels, all above 1.0% [5].