（文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京12月19日电据彭博报道，知情人士透露，基于最新的经济增长与通胀展望，欧洲央行官员 预计利率削减周期极有可能已经结束。他们表示，在经历了从4%峰值开始的八次降息后，除非再次发 生重大冲击，否则存款利率应当能够维持在2%的水平。不过，目前任何关于加息的讨论都被视为"为时 过早"。一位决策者提醒道，如果通胀率连续数月低于目标，则仍有可能进一步放宽货币政策。 ...

Market Overview - The three major indices, including the Russell, reached highs following a Federal Reserve rate cut, despite mixed results on the day of the cut [1] - There is a wait-and-see approach from institutional investors regarding market movements and rate cut implications [2] Small Caps Analysis - Small caps are viewed as a potential catch-up trade, especially since they have underperformed compared to indices like NASDAQ since their last all-time high in 2021 [3][4] - Small cap stocks typically rely on short-term rates for funding, making them more sensitive to changes in Federal Reserve policy [5] - Long-term valuation analysis indicates that small cap value stocks are trading at a 15% to 20% discount to their intrinsic value, suggesting potential for growth if a catalyst, such as Fed easing, occurs [6] Valuation Perspectives - Current market valuations are high, with major indices trading close to historic highs, but rate cuts could make these valuations more acceptable [8] - Historical data shows that high valuations can lead to positive outcomes during earnings expansion and rate-cutting environments [9] Investment Strategies - The current market environment suggests a need for defensive positions in portfolios, with healthcare identified as a sector that has strong fundamentals but has lagged behind [13] - There is a bullish sentiment towards small caps as a procyclical trade, aligning with the overall positive market mood [12][13] Gold Market Insights - Opinions on gold vary, with some analysts suggesting it is currently too expensive to buy, while others advocate for investment due to risks associated with a waning dollar and increasing central bank activity [15]