点击蓝字，关注我们 分析师认为，鲍威尔的鸽派言论将支撑亚洲股市和货币市场。 本周，亚洲股市有望迎来强劲开局，亚洲货币也可能因此获得支撑。华尔街分析师们还指出，亚 洲股市与货币有望进一步走强。此前，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上的讲话表明，美 联储最快将于 9 月的下一次政策会议上采取降息举措。上周五，美国股市大幅上涨，使得道琼斯 工业平均指数创下今年来的新高。与此同时，新兴市场货币结束了连续六天的跌势，因为鲍威尔 的言论导致美元大幅贬值。 以下是分析师和策略师们的观点： 瑞穗证券高级市场经济学家Yusuke Matsuo表示："日本央行正在考虑加息，而美联储则在考虑降 息，因此这两家央行在政策利率方向上极有可能会背道而驰。 外汇市场预计将逐渐朝着日元升值 和美元贬值的方向发展，这反映出市场预期日本央行今年将再进行一次加息，而美联储将进行两 次降息。 " Asia Decoded首席经济学家Priyanka Kishore指出：" 美元走软可能会暂时提振亚洲货币，因为鲍威 尔表示可能会在 9 月降息。 但除非美联储承诺开启更大幅度的宽松政策，否则任何涨势都可能只 是暂时的。" Vantage Market ...

（原标题：鲍威尔"鸽声"点燃看涨情绪 分析师高喊亚洲股汇双涨在即） Asia Decoded首席经济学家Priyanka Kishore指出："美元走软可能会暂时提振亚洲货币，因为鲍威尔表 示可能会在 9 月降息。但除非美联储承诺开启更大幅度的宽松政策，否则任何涨势都可能只是暂时 的。" Vantage Markets分析师Hebe Chen称："鲍威尔发出的'愿望转化为现实'的信号将有助于填补亚洲市场稍 有波动的表面之下存在的裂痕。尽管该信号并不能保证其持久性，但这种提振作用在以科技股为主的板 块和市场(比如日本和台湾)中会最为明显，因为在这些地方市场情绪更为脆弱。对于投资者而言，这种 新的乐观情绪很可能会在 9 月 17 日之前一直保持风险偏好高涨的状态。" 智通财经APP获悉，本周，亚洲股市有望迎来强劲开局，亚洲货币也可能因此获得支撑。华尔街分析师 们还指出，亚洲股市与货币有望进一步走强。此前，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上的讲话表 明，美联储最快将于 9 月的下一次政策会议上采取降息举措。上周五，美国股市大幅上涨，使得道琼斯 工业平均指数创下今年来的新高。与此同时，新兴市场货币结束了连续六天的跌 ...

通胀上行预期交易强化 油价初见跌势尽头线 2025年08月22日 威尔鑫投资咨询研究中心 （文） 首席分析师 杨易君 来源：杨易君黄金与金融投资 周四国际现货金价以3347.02美元开盘，最高上试3352.37美元，最低下探3325.08美元，报收3338.33美元，下跌9.62美元，跌幅0.29%，振幅0.82%，日K线 呈强势震荡小阴线。 周四美元指数以98.22点开盘，最高上试98.68点，最低下探98.18点，报收98.66点，上涨440点，涨幅0.45%，振幅0.51%，日K线呈震荡上行中阳线。 周四Wellxin贵金指数（金银钯铂）以6888.60点开盘，最高上试6929.53点，最低下探6817.41点，报收6901.19点，上涨9.07点，涨幅0.13%，振幅2.15%， 日K线呈强势震荡小阳线。 周四市场运行看似杂乱无章，实则隐含通胀上行预期交易倾向。截止周五午盘的周内美元指数日K线，四阳一阴，总体表现强劲。但基本金属、贵金属， 尤其原油市场表现总体"先抑后扬"：周一、二基本金属、贵金属、原油市场在美元强势中承压，周三初见转折，周四则几乎无视美元继续走强而转强。 就市场表现而言，周四金价、贵 ...

日本7月份的通胀水平依然顽固，大米等食品价格持续飙升令日本央行加息预期再度升温。 8月22日周五，日本政府官方公布数据显示，其7月核心消费价格指数（CPI）同比增长3.1%，虽较6月的3.3%有 所放缓，但仍高于市场预期的3.0%及日本央行2%的目标。 此次核心通胀数据放缓，主要得益于能源价格的下跌，其7月能源价格同比下降0.3%，是自2024年3月以来的首次 下降。 然而，日本的通胀势头依然强劲。一个剔除了生鲜食品和能源价格、被视为能更准确反映潜在通胀趋势的"核心 中的核心"指标，7月份的同比增幅为3.4%，与前一个月持平。 数据发布后，市场反应迅速。日本国债收益率应声走高，而反映市场预期的掉期合约显示，交易员认为日本央行 在10月底前加息的概率已从一个月前的约42%攀升至51%。 Dai-Ichi Life Research Institute的高级执行经济学家Yoshiki Shinke指出，"仅仅因为核心CPI放缓就断定通胀正在减 弱是错误的"，他强调食品价格仍在加速上涨，反映出企业将成本转嫁给消费者的意愿。 物价上涨势头不减，大米是"元凶"？ 日本大米价格还在持续飙升。数据显示，7月大米价格同比上涨 ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. indices closed lower, with the S&P 500 index declining for the fifth consecutive trading day as investors await comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 152.81 points, or 0.34%, closing at 44,785.50 points; the Nasdaq dropped by 72.55 points, or 0.34%, to 21,100.31 points; and the S&P 500 decreased by 25.61 points, or 0.40%, to 6,370.17 points [1] Stock Performance - Walmart (WMT.US) saw a decline of over 4%, while Tesla (TSLA.US) fell by 1% [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose by 1.3%, with Xpeng Motors (XPEV.US) increasing by 11.6% and NIO (NIO.US) rising by over 9% [1] - Alibaba (BABA.US) experienced a drop of 1% [1] European Market - The German DAX 30 index increased by 13.51 points, or 0.06%, closing at 24,290.61 points; the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 20.71 points, or 0.22%, to 9,308.85 points [1] - The French CAC 40 index fell by 34.74 points, or 0.44%, to 7,938.29 points; the Euro Stoxx 50 index decreased by 11.47 points, or 0.21%, to 5,460.85 points [1] - The Spanish IBEX 35 index rose by 2.40 points, or 0.02%, to 15,297.50 points; the Italian FTSE MIB index increased by 130.19 points, or 0.30%, to 42,995.00 points [1] Commodity Prices - Light crude oil futures for October delivery rose by $0.81, closing at $63.52 per barrel, a gain of 1.29%; Brent crude oil futures for October delivery increased by $0.83, closing at $67.67 per barrel, a rise of 1.24% [2] - Spot gold fell by 0.30%, priced at $3,338.22 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures decreased by 0.17%, closing at $3,382.90 per ounce [3] Economic Indicators - The U.S. August PMI data indicates strong economic performance, with a 2.5% annualized growth rate, surpassing the first half's average of 1.3% [4] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose by 11,000 to 235,000, marking the largest increase in nearly three months, indicating potential layoffs and a weakening labor market [5] - The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage in the U.S. remained stable at 6.58%, the lowest level since October of the previous year [8] Company News - Apple (AAPL.US) raised the monthly subscription price for its streaming service Apple TV+ by 30% to $13, effective immediately for new subscribers in the U.S. and select international markets [9] - Deutsche Bank raised the target price for Estée Lauder (EL.US) from $98 to $100 [10] - Jefferies lowered the target price for Target (TGT.US) from $120 to $115 and for Baidu (BIDU.US) from $110 to $108 [10]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's bond market is experiencing a significant sell-off due to concerns over fiscal conditions and persistent inflation, leading to a surge in long-term government bond yields to their highest levels in a decade [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Yield Trends - On August 21, Japan's long-term government bond yields rose sharply, with the 10-year yield reaching 1.61%, the highest since October 2008 [1]. - The 20-year bond yield hit 2.655%, the highest since 1999, while the 30-year yield approached its historical high of 3.2% [1]. - As of 6 PM Beijing time, the 10-year yield was at 1.616%, the 20-year yield at 2.649%, and the 30-year yield at 3.197% [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Bond Yields - The primary driver of rising yields is investor expectations of new fiscal stimulus measures following the ruling coalition's loss in the July Senate elections, which will increase Japan's already high debt levels [1][3]. - Persistent inflation in Japan has raised the likelihood of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, further pushing up bond yields [2][4]. - A significant drop in demand for Japanese bonds has been noted, with net purchases of 10-year and longer bonds by overseas investors falling to 480 billion yen (approximately 3.3 billion USD) in July, just one-third of June's purchases [2][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The bond market has faced a "disastrous" decline in demand, attributed to rising inflation and potential fiscal stimulus, which increases the burden on Japan's already high leverage [3][6]. - Despite high yields, overseas investors had been attracted to Japanese bonds earlier this year, with net purchases reaching 9.2841 trillion yen in the first seven months, the highest since records began in 2004 [4]. - However, the trend has reversed since July, with concerns over fiscal imbalances and the Bank of Japan's gradual exit from the bond market contributing to reduced demand [4][6]. Group 4: Potential Interventions - Experts suggest that if the sell-off continues, the Bank of Japan may intervene to stabilize the bond market, potentially through liquidity injections or adjustments to its quantitative tightening strategy [7]. - The future trajectory of long-term bond yields will depend on monetary policy direction, fiscal expansion pace, and global interest rate environments [7].

Group 1 - The majority of economists predict that the Bank of Japan will raise the key interest rate by at least 25 basis points later this year, with the proportion of such predictions increasing from over half to nearly two-thirds in recent weeks [1] - Despite recent weak employment data in the US reviving expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, 70% of analysts believe this will not delay the Bank of Japan's moderate tightening monetary policy [1] - In a survey conducted from August 12 to 19, 67 out of 73 economists (92%) expect the Bank of Japan to maintain the current interest rate at its September meeting, while 63% of 71 respondents anticipate a rate hike of at least 25 basis points to 0.75% in the next quarter [1] Group 2 - In the week of August 16, Japan's stock market experienced the largest foreign capital inflow in nearly four months, driven by expectations of a US rate cut and strong domestic economic growth data [3] - The Japanese Ministry of Finance reported that foreign investors purchased approximately 1.16 trillion yen (about 78.7 billion USD) worth of Japanese stocks in the last week, marking the largest single-week buying volume since April 5 [3]

路透调查显示，近三分之二的经济学家预测日本央行将在今年晚些时候再次上调关键利率至少25个基 点，该比例较半月前超过半数的情况持续上升。尽管近期美国就业市场疲软的消息令市场对美联储下月 降息的预期重燃，但本次调查中70%的分析师表示，仅凭这一点不会延缓日本央行推行适度紧缩货币政 策的步伐。在8月12日至19日的调查中，73位经济学家中有67位（占比92%）预测日本央行在9月会议上 将维持利率不变。但71位受访者中有45位（占比63%）预计央行将在下一季度至少加息25个基点至 0.75%，上月调查为54%。在具体预测下次加息时点的40位经济学家中，38%选择10月作为最可能时 机，30%认为将在明年1月，18%则预测在今年12月。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Gold is expected to trade in a high - level range; silver is likely to decline slightly [2][4]. - Copper lacks a clear driver, and its price will oscillate [2][11]. - Zinc will trade within a range [2][14]. - The decreasing inventory of lead will support its price [2][17]. - Tin will trade within a range [2][20]. - Aluminum will trade in a high - level range; alumina will rise slightly in a sideways movement; cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][25]. - Nickel will have a narrow - range oscillation based on fundamental logic, and investors should be wary of news - related risks; stainless steel prices will oscillate due to the game between macro - expectations and reality [2][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price and Trading Volume**: For gold, the closing prices of沪金2510 and黄金T+D decreased by 0.31% and 0.33% respectively, while Comex黄金2510 increased by 0.99%. For silver,沪银2510 and白银T+D decreased by 1.57% and 1.74% respectively, and Comex白银2510 increased by 1.48%. The trading volumes and open interests of some contracts also changed [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of ETFs, domestic and foreign exchanges showed different trends, such as a decrease in SPDR黄金ETF持仓 by 4 and an increase in Comex白银库存 by 600,232 ounces [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed's July meeting minutes released hawkish signals; Trump pressured Fed governor Lisa Cook; Fed's potential payment innovation with the industry; China's August LPR remained unchanged [5][22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity is 1; silver trend intensity is - 1 [9]. 3.2 Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪铜主力合约 decreased by 0.30% during the day and increased by 0.13% at night; the closing price of伦铜3M电子盘 increased by 0.38%. The trading volumes and open interests of both contracts changed [11]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of沪铜 decreased by 275 tons, and that of伦铜 increased by 1,200 tons. Various spreads such as LME铜升贴水 and现货 - to - futures spreads also changed [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed's meeting minutes were hawkish; China's August LPR remained unchanged; PT Smelting's maintenance was extended; Codelco's smelter restarted; Glencore applied for investment incentives; China's July copper imports data were released [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity is 0 [13]. 3.3 Zinc - **Price and Related Data**: The closing price of沪锌主力 increased by 0.27%, and that of伦锌3M电子盘 decreased by 0.50%. Other data such as trading volume, open interest, and various spreads also changed [14]. - **News**: The US PPI reached 3.3%, and the growth rate of M2 was approaching 5%, which might lead to inflation [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [14]. 3.4 Lead - **Price and Related Data**: The closing price of沪铅主力 decreased by 0.59%, and that of伦铅3M电子盘 decreased by 0.33%. The inventory of沪铅 and伦铅 decreased, and other data such as trading volume, open interest, and spreads also changed [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Fed's meeting minutes were hawkish; China's August LPR remained unchanged [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity is 0 [18]. 3.5 Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of沪锡主力 decreased by 0.09% during the day and 0.23% at night; the closing price of伦锡3M电子盘 increased by 0.01%. The trading volumes and open interests of both contracts changed [21]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The inventory of沪锡 decreased by 184 tons, and that of伦锡 increased by 85 tons. Various spreads also changed [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to other metals, including Fed's meeting minutes, Trump's pressure on the Fed, etc. [22]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity is - 1 [24]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Related Data**: For aluminum,沪铝主力 and LME铝3M prices changed; for alumina,沪氧化铝主力 price changed. Various data such as trading volume, open interest, spreads, and enterprise profits also changed [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's August LPR remained unchanged; Trump pressured Fed governor Lisa Cook [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy trend intensities are all 0 [27]. 3.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Industry Chain Data**: The closing prices of沪镍主力 and不锈钢主力 changed. Various data in the industrial chain such as import profit, spreads, and raw material prices also changed [28]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Multiple events in the Indonesian nickel industry, including potential export suspension, project production, environmental violations, and production suspension; a steel mill in Shandong reduced production [28][31]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel trend intensities are both 0 [33].

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan, under Governor Ueda, has raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years, marking a significant shift from its previous ultra-loose monetary policy [1] - Ueda's cautious stance is evident as he becomes one of the more dovish members of the nine-member policy committee, expressing concerns about the economic impact of U.S. tariffs [1][3] - The recent outlook report from the Bank of Japan indicates that tariffs could complicate future interest rate decisions, reflecting a cautious approach towards the economic outlook [1][3] Group 2 - The July meeting minutes reveal that persistent food inflation has led some committee members to warn of potential second-round price effects, which could justify further rate hikes [2] - Despite hawkish signals from some committee members, Ueda emphasizes that domestic demand and wage-driven inflation remain below the central bank's target, supporting a slower pace of rate increases [2] - The internal dynamics of the committee show a shift in influence, with former dovish members losing power and hawkish members warning about the risks of rising inflation due to food price increases [2][3] Group 3 - Ueda and his deputy, Shinichi Uchida, maintain a dovish stance, focusing on the downside risks facing Japan's fragile economy and the potential negative impacts of U.S. tariffs [3] - Concerns about the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports and capital spending are prevalent, with economists predicting a decline in corporate profits that could affect capital expenditures [3] - The trade agreement between Japan and the U.S. has not fully clarified the timeline for tariff reductions, leading to uncertainty about the future economic landscape [3] Group 4 - The governor proposes policies and interest rate proposals to the committee, which have historically been approved by majority or unanimous votes [4] - Since the current committee framework was established in 1998, the governor's proposals have never been rejected, indicating strong leadership [4] Group 5 - There is a perception that the current committee lacks strong dissenters, making it unlikely for hawkish members to oppose the governor's wishes regarding interest rate hikes [5] - Ueda's leadership within the committee appears to be solid, suggesting that his cautious approach may prevail despite the presence of hawkish sentiments [5]