Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the impact of inflation and monetary policy in the context of the Chinese economy and global economic conditions, particularly focusing on the effects of high oil prices and input inflation on economic growth and monetary policy responses. Key Points and Arguments Inflation and Economic Indicators - March PPI is expected to turn positive at 1% year-on-year, while April CPI may rise to 1.47% due to base effects [1] - Export growth of 22% year-on-year in January-February has contributed to manufacturing recovery, but high oil prices (over $150) could lead to a 5%-8% decline in global GDP, triggering an input recession [1][2] - The divergence in interest rates between the US and China reflects the independent monetary policy stance of China, with short-term US rates rising rapidly while Chinese short-term rates are declining [1][4] Market Reactions to Input Inflation - The market's pricing logic for input inflation focuses on the slope and persistence of inflation, with oil prices rising approximately 42.8% month-on-month in March, leading to an expected PPI increase of 1.3% [2] - Current interest rates are close to market expectations, indicating that the market has adequately priced in March's inflation, although some participants believe there is still room for rates to rise due to uncertainties surrounding the duration of the conflict [2] Risks and Misconceptions - The market may overestimate the economy's ability to withstand high oil prices and underestimate the transmission pressure on Chinese exports [3] - Input inflation, driven by supply-side factors like rising oil prices, can suppress demand and potentially lead to stagflation, with predictions of a significant global economic downturn if oil prices remain high [3] - Optimistic views suggest that China may experience a "grab export" phenomenon similar to the pandemic period, but this is contradicted by the reality that rising oil prices will increase production costs, affecting China's competitive advantage [3] Domestic Monetary Policy Considerations - The domestic central bank's approach to input inflation differs fundamentally from that of developed countries, focusing more on economic growth rather than solely on inflation metrics [4] - Recent policy signals include a significant MLF operation on March 25, 2026, indicating a commitment to maintaining liquidity despite inflationary pressures [4] - The central bank's intention to keep monetary policy accommodative is reflected in the continued decline of short-term interest rates, contrasting with the rising short-term rates in the US [4] Additional Important Content - The potential for overseas central banks to raise interest rates in response to input inflation could lead to reduced total demand, significantly impacting China's export-driven growth [3] - The overall economic environment is different from the expansive fiscal and monetary conditions during the pandemic, limiting the effectiveness of similar strategies in the current context [3]

老师这两篇宏观长文的整体其实在说的就是一件事，那就是加密市场在为错误的尾部风险恐慌。浅浅理解了一下，加息解决不了油价，只会让脆弱的就业市场直接硬着陆。如果宏观真的崩了，美联储的底牌只剩降息。再看一眼币本位的 OI 和 ETF 净流入，大机构没下车，而散户在为降息延后恐慌。近三个月的 BTC ETF 流入量还是挺乐观的SUN XIAOCHUAN(Emperor of Xinjin) (@sun_xinjin):加息的风险被高估了1）22年的恶性通胀本质上是由“工资-通胀”恶性螺旋驱动，当时就业很紧（尤其服务业），工资增速高，居民储蓄率高，外加俄乌冲突引起供给侧冲击。现在的情况完全不一样，就业已经在危险区，工资增速也下来了，加息不但解决不了供给侧的问题，反而还容易带崩企业融资和失业。 https://t.co/ro6h3Txs6s ...

Group 1 - The article highlights a significant increase in gold and silver prices, with spot gold breaking above $4550, currently reported at $4543.9 per ounce, and spot silver rising to $71 per ounce, marking a 5% increase [1] - International crude oil futures are also on the rise, with WTI crude oil nearing a 4% increase, currently at $98 per barrel, and Brent crude oil up by 1.8%, reported at $103 per barrel [1] - Goldman Sachs has revised its energy price forecasts, predicting that oil prices will rise over 20% and natural gas prices over 30% by the end of 2026, with risks skewed to the upside [1] Group 2 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced a significant drop, falling nearly 500 points during trading, with the index down 432.85 points or 0.94% [3] - The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices also saw declines, with the Nasdaq down 311.32 points or 1.45% and the S&P 500 down 62.77 points or 0.97% [3] - Reports indicate that Israel and the U.S. have attacked Iran's nuclear facility, which includes a heavy water reactor, escalating geopolitical tensions [3][4] Group 3 - Former White House economist Nouriel Roubini predicts a greater than 50% chance of the U.S. escalating its conflict with Iran, suggesting that President Trump may opt for military action rather than retreat [4] - Roubini also mentioned that the incoming Federal Reserve chair may have no choice but to raise interest rates to protect their reputation at the start of their term [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral - Arbitrage: Suspended - Options: Sell put options [7] 2. Core View of the Report - Amidst significant macro - disturbances, copper prices maintain a volatile pattern. With the decline in oil prices, the market's pricing of interest rate hikes may be gradually corrected. Given the high US debt scale, interest rate hikes are difficult to implement. Enterprises with hedging needs are advised to buy hedges at low prices, with a hedging volume of about one month [1][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On March 26, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 95,950 yuan/ton and closed at 95,350 yuan/ton, a - 0.25% decrease from the previous trading day's close. In the overnight session, it opened at 95,350 yuan/ton and closed at 95,150 yuan/ton, a 0.21% decrease from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - The Shanghai copper 2604 contract gapped lower and fell to 95,070 yuan/ton, closing at 95,160 yuan/ton. The monthly spread was between Contango 30 yuan/ton and Backwardation 10 yuan/ton, with an import loss of 90 - 40 yuan/ton. Shanghai's electrolytic copper sales sentiment was 2.74 and procurement sentiment was 2.57, showing a decline and an increase respectively. It is expected that today's spot discount will remain at the current level [2] Important Information Summary - Geopolitical: US President Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to 8 pm on April 6, 2026, Eastern Time. Economic data: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 5,000 to 210,000, and the number of continued claims decreased by 32,000 to 1.819 million. The OECD expects the global economic growth rate to be 2.9% in 2026 and 3% in 2027, with the US economic growth slowing from 2% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027 and an inflation rate of 4.2% in 2026 [3] Supply - Side Information Mining End - Jubilee Metals Group launched the second - phase drilling of the Molefe copper mine to define the extension of the eastern mineralization zone. Boliden's Garpenberg copper mine was affected by an earthquake, with an expected EBITDA impact of about 400 million Swedish kronor in Q1 2026, and the production scale was significantly reduced [4] Smelting and Import - Mitsubishi Materials will stop the copper concentrate processing business of its Onahama smelter and refinery by the end of March 2027 due to intensified overseas competition and a significant decline in TC/RCs [4] Consumption Information - In January 2026, China's copper foil imports were 7,133.71 tons, a 15.77% year - on - year increase and a 0.69% month - on - month decrease; in February, imports were 6,442.72 tons, a 9.55% year - on - year increase and a 9.69% month - on - month decrease. From January to February, the cumulative imports were 13,576.44 tons, a 12.73% year - on - year increase. In January, exports were 6,136.04 tons, a 94.70% year - on - year increase and a 13.33% month - on - month increase; in February, exports were 4,820.50 tons, a 59.68% year - on - year increase and a 21.44% month - on - month decrease. From January to February, the cumulative exports were 10,956.54 tons, a 77.57% year - on - year increase. After the significant decline in copper prices, downstream procurement意愿 increased, and some enterprises adjusted processing fees and margin ratios [5][6] Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Information - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 350 tons to 359,825 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 5,670 tons to 246,441 tons. On March 26, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 427,400 tons, a decrease of 40,300 tons from the previous week [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [7] - Arbitrage: On hold [7] - Options: Sell put options [7] 2. Core View of the Report - Despite a significant decline in the global equity market and commodities due to the possible interest rate hike, the prices of most non - ferrous metals, including copper, rebounded last night. With the decline in oil prices, the market's pricing of interest rate hikes may be gradually corrected. Given the high US Treasury debt, interest rate hikes are difficult to implement. Enterprises with hedging needs are advised to buy on dips for hedging, with a hedging volume of about one month [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Futures Quotes - On March 25, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 93,600 yuan/ton and closed at 95,590 yuan/ton, a 1.66% increase from the previous trading day's close. Last night, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 95,950 yuan/ton and closed at 96,250 yuan/ton, a 0.69% increase from the afternoon close [1] 3.1.2 Spot Situation - Yesterday morning, the 2604 contract of Shanghai copper futures opened with a gap up, reached a high of 96,260 yuan/ton and then fell back, finishing at 95,500 yuan/ton. The spread between months was between Contango 20 yuan/ton and Backwardation 20 yuan/ton, and the import profit was 150 - 240 yuan/ton. The sales and purchase sentiment in Shanghai's electrolytic copper market changed in opposite directions. In the morning, the discount of flat - copper was 80 - 60 yuan/ton, that of good copper was 60 - 50 yuan/ton, and that of non - registered copper was 170 - 150 yuan/ton. Then some holders sold off, widening the discount. In the second period, the discount was further reduced, and trading volume increased. After the copper price jumped, downstream buyers were cautious, and holders were more willing to sell. The price difference between good copper and flat - copper narrowed. It is expected that the current spot discount will continue [2] 3.2 Important Information Summary 3.2.1 Geopolitical Situation - Iran denied the possibility of negotiations with the US. Iran put forward five conditions for a cease - fire. Non - belligerent ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz safely after coordination. Cosco Shipping Lines resumed new booking business for ordinary containers to some Middle - East countries [3] 3.2.2 Mining End - Bezant Resources acquired an additional 20% stake in the Hope and Gorob Mining joint - venture for 1.11 million pounds, increasing its share to 90%. The project has good resource potential. After the acquisition, the company will accelerate related work. Rio Tinto is promoting the Resolution copper mine to start production, aiming for formal operation in the early to mid - 2030s. The mine is expected to produce over 40 billion pounds (about 18.1 million tons) of copper in its lifetime, but may need to export some copper concentrates due to the poor economic efficiency of the US copper smelting industry. Rio Tinto has obtained land control rights and started a $500 - million drilling activity [4] 3.2.3 Smelting and Import - In January 2026, China imported 64,900 tons of anode copper, a 5.74% increase month - on - month and a 1.48% increase year - on - year. In February, the import volume was 56,900 tons, a 12.33% decrease month - on - month and a 0.81% increase year - on - year. The cumulative import volume from January to February was 121,700 tons, a 1.16% increase year - on - year [5] 3.2.4 Consumption - From January to February 2026, China's cumulative import volume of copper foil was 13,576.44 tons, a 12.73% increase year - on - year, and the cumulative export volume was 10,956.54 tons, a 77.57% increase year - on - year. After the sharp decline in copper prices, downstream purchasing willingness increased, and some enterprises raised processing fees and margin ratios [5][6] 3.2.5 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 900 tons to 360,175 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 10,599 tons to 252,111 tons. On March 25, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 467,700 tons, a decrease of 55,400 tons from the previous week [6] 3.3 Price and Basis Data - The report provides data on SMM 1 copper (including different types of copper), LME (0 - 3), inventory of different exchanges, warehouse receipts, spreads between contracts, import profit, and the ratio of copper to other metals at different time points (March 26, 2026; March 25, 2026; March 19, 2026; February 24, 2026) [24][27][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has a significant impact on the global energy supply and financial markets. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has led to a sharp decline in oil exports from Middle Eastern countries, and also affected the prices of various commodities and the performance of stock markets [6][7][19]. - The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range and shows a cautious stance. It has adjusted inflation and economic growth expectations, and the future interest - rate adjustment path is more conservative [7]. - The prices of different commodities show different trends. Some commodities are affected by supply - demand relationships, geopolitical factors, and macro - economic factors, and their price trends are complex and variable [4][11][13]. - The A - share market has been affected by external geopolitical shocks, but there is a technical need for a rebound after the decline. However, due to the uncertainty of the Middle East situation, the real stabilization of the market may require patience [18][19][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Chemicals - **Price Changes**: On March 25, 2026, compared with March 24, 2026, among chemical products, the prices of natural rubber, 20 - number glue, and crude oil increased, with increases of 0.555%, 0.977%, and 0.149% respectively; the prices of other products such as plastic, polypropylene PP, and PTA decreased, with the largest decline of 2.884% for ЬХ [4]. Macro News - **Middle East Energy Crisis**: Iran's energy facilities were attacked, and Iran retaliated by targeting the energy facilities of the US and some Middle Eastern countries. The oil exports of Middle Eastern countries have dropped significantly, with a decrease of about 61% - 71% compared with the average level in February [6]. - **Fed Policy**: The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, and the future interest - rate adjustment path is more conservative. It has also adjusted inflation and economic growth expectations [7]. - **China - US Relations and Domestic Policy**: China and the US will continue to communicate about Trump's visit to China. China has launched a second - round pilot project to extend the land contract for another 30 years [8]. Main Variety Morning Meeting Views Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The international sugar price is supported by the reduction of production expectations in major producing countries and high oil prices. The domestic sugar price may fluctuate within a range in the short term, with the upper pressure around 5460 - 5470 yuan and the lower support at 5400 yuan [11]. - **Corn**: The price has broken through the previous shock range, and the market sentiment has weakened. One can pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on the rebound, with the lower support at 2360 yuan/ton [11]. - **Peanut**: The supply is tight, and the oil mill's purchase provides support, but the food - grade peanut consumption is weak. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term, and one can take a wait - and - see or range - trading strategy [11]. - **Pig**: The supply is sufficient, the market is oversupplied, and the price is still looking for a bottom. The short position can be reduced [11]. - **Egg**: The spot price is stable and slightly strong, showing a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The short - term disk is mainly fluctuating and strong, and it is recommended to operate intraday [13]. - **Jujube**: The market is in the off - season of consumption, and the supply exceeds demand. The disk is in a bottom - shock pattern, and it is recommended to operate intraday within the range [13]. - **Cotton**: The supply is slightly affected by the issuance of import quotas, and the demand in the traditional peak season is fulfilled. The price is under short - term callback pressure, but there is support around 15200 yuan. One can consider going long at the support level [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The price is rising, and the export is expected to strengthen, but one needs to be vigilant against the risk of the near - month contract correction [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply is stable, and the iron - water output provides support, but the price may fluctuate due to geopolitical factors. One can wait for the opportunity to go long at a low price after the correction [15]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with obvious upper pressure [15]. - **Urea**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the futures price may continue to operate at a high level in a consolidation state [15]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: The price of gold and silver is supported by the uncertainty of the Middle East situation, the slowdown of the US dollar's rise, and the long - term demand, and it is operating in a high - level shock state [15]. - **Copper and Aluminum**: The price has followed the market to correct due to the change in geopolitical risk sentiment. One should wait patiently for the price to stop falling and stabilize [15][17]. - **Alumina**: The supply may increase, and one can take a long - biased view at a low price, but be vigilant against macro risks [17]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The inventory is decreasing, the demand is increasing, and the price is supported at a low level. One needs to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical factors and raw - material price fluctuations [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The short - term cost is supported, and the idea is to go long on the correction, but there is a risk of chasing the high [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is weak, and after the price breaks through the key resistance, one should be cautious and wait and see, and be vigilant against the correction risk [17][18]. Option Finance - **Stock Index and Option**: On March 24, A - share indexes rose, and the trading volume of options changed. Trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can trade according to the price trend. The A - share market is affected by external factors, and the real stabilization may require patience [18][20].

Group 1: Economic Impact of Oil Prices and Monetary Policy - The Chicago Fed President indicated that rising oil prices may force the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy, with all options under consideration, including potential interest rate hikes if inflation remains uncontrolled [2] - GasBuddy reported that the average gasoline price in the U.S. reached $3.95, the highest since August 2022, increasing over 30% since the onset of the U.S.-Iran conflict [2] - Goldman Sachs adjusted the probability of a U.S. recession to 30% over the next 12 months, citing the impact of rising energy prices on economic growth and inflation [4] Group 2: Global Central Bank Trends - The European Central Bank has also hinted at potential interest rate hikes, indicating a shift from a global easing cycle to tightening, increasing the risk of reduced liquidity worldwide [3] Group 3: Shipping and Energy Transport - The shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted by 95% since the U.S.-Iran conflict began, with only 144 vessels passing through from March 1 to March 23, compared to approximately 138 vessels daily before the conflict [6] - Despite the ongoing conflict, there are signs of a gradual return to limited shipping through the Strait, with both the U.S. and Iran showing willingness to negotiate [6] Group 4: Data Market Developments in China - The National Data Bureau of China announced plans to accelerate the establishment of a unified data property registration system, with daily token usage exceeding 140 trillion, a significant increase from previous years [8] - By the end of 2025, over 100,000 high-quality data sets are expected to be established, vastly surpassing the digital resources of the National Library of China [8] Group 5: Beauty Industry Mergers and Acquisitions - Estée Lauder is in talks to merge with Spanish beauty group PUIG, as it faces declining sales, with net sales projected to drop to $14.33 billion by fiscal year 2025 [10] - The beauty market is shifting towards consolidation, with larger companies relying on acquisitions to strengthen their competitive positions, while smaller brands can still find opportunities in niche markets [11] Group 6: Financial Products and Market Trends - Several banks have reported failures in fundraising for new financial products due to not meeting minimum thresholds, with at least 29 products affected [14] - The average yield of bank wealth management products fell below 2% for the first time, leading to decreased attractiveness and increased competition in the market [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stainless - steel futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly, break through the MA10 pressure, and the upper limit to be concerned about is 14,500 yuan/ton. The raw material supply is shrinking, the production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, but the cost support has moved up. The downstream demand is in the traditional off - season, and exports will face pressure. The current inventory level is basically the same as that of the same period last year, and the inventory pressure is controllable. With the resumption of work of downstream enterprises, it is gradually entering the destocking cycle. The long - position atmosphere is relatively strong in terms of technical analysis [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 14,290 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 255 yuan/ton; the spread between the 05 - 06 contracts of stainless - steel is 55 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The net long - position volume of the top 20 futures positions is - 1,434 hands, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 1,610 hands; the position volume of the main contract is 124,889 hands, with a ring - to - ring increase of 6,453 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity is 43,659 tons, with a ring - to - ring increase of 1,934 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 14,950 yuan/ton, with no change; the market price of scrap stainless - steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,750 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of stainless - steel is 435 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 30 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, with a ring - to - ring increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 21,400 metal tons, with no change. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, with a ring - to - ring increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 996,100 tons, with a ring - to - ring increase of 100,700 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 136,150 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 1,700 yuan/ton; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 1,105 yuan/nickel point, with no change. The monthly Chinese chromite output is 757,800 tons, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless - steel is 1.8581 million tons, with a ring - to - ring increase of 110,900 tons; the weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless - steel is 624,200 tons, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 12,800 tons. The monthly export volume of stainless - steel is 458,500 tons, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 58,769.96 million square meters, with a ring - to - ring increase of 5,313.26 million square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 37,300 units, with a ring - to - ring increase of 3,700 units. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 32,100 units, with a ring - to - ring increase of 9,500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, with a ring - to - ring increase of 1,000 units [2] 3.6 Industry News - The US - Iran negotiation is in a stalemate. Trump said the US and Iran had a "strong" dialogue and formed the main points of an agreement, and would suspend attacks on its energy facilities for 5 days. But Iran has repeatedly denied having a dialogue with the US. - State Power Investment Corporation plans to invest 200 billion yuan in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 17%. In the first quarter, it will complete an investment of 23 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 35%. - US Vice - President Vance had a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss the efforts to start negotiations with Iran and the elements of a potential agreement to end the war with Iran. Netanyahu said he had a phone call with Trump and emphasized that Israel was still attacking Iran and Lebanon. - Fed's Goolsbee said inflation is the primary risk, not ruling out the possibility of raising interest rates, and still retaining the space for interest - rate cuts this year. Milan said that if there are second - round effects of inflation and wage increases, interest rates may need to be raised, but currently does not think it is necessary to consider raising interest rates. Daly said too much forward - looking guidance would create a false sense of certainty and still expects four interest - rate cuts in 2026 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report expects Shanghai zinc to stabilize and adjust, and suggests paying attention to the range of 22,500 - 23,500 yuan/ton [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,975 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 175 yuan/ton; the 05 - 06 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is - 25 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,103 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 47 US dollars/ton; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 185,428 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 5,547 lots [3]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 1,772 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 287 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 0 tons, with no change [3]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 152,266 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4,918 tons; the LME inventory is 117,175 tons, with a day - on - day decrease of 500 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,860 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 190 yuan/ton; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 23,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 630 yuan/ton [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is - 115 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 20.79 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.82 US dollars/ton [3]. - The ex - factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 19,610 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,950 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Balance - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is 29,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 55,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 9,200 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 84,300 tons [3]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - The global zinc mine output of ILZSG is 1.0104 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 59,600 tons; the domestic refined zinc output is 675,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 21,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 414,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 180,800 tons; the refined zinc import volume is 4,518.01 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 19,594.63 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 3,866.38 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,847.88 tons [3]. 3.5 Social Inventory - The zinc social inventory is 236,000 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4,700 tons [3]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - The output of galvanized sheets is 2.4 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.38 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 tons [3]. - The new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 53.1326 million square meters; the housing completion area is 63.2042 million square meters, with a month - on - month decrease of 540.2771 million square meters [3]. - The automobile output is 3.4115 million vehicles, with a month - on - month decrease of 107,500 vehicles; the air - conditioner output is 21.6289 million units, with a month - on - month increase of 6.6029 million units [3]. 3.7 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option of zinc is 19.43%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.25%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option of zinc is 19.43%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.25% [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option of zinc is 23.91%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.31%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money option of zinc is 20.39%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.17% [3]. 3.8 Industry News - The US - Iran negotiation is in a stalemate. Trump said the US and Iran had a "strong" dialogue and formed the main points of an agreement, and would suspend attacking its energy facilities for 5 days. But Iran has repeatedly denied having a dialogue with the US [3]. - State Power Investment Corporation plans to invest 200 billion yuan in 2026, a year - on - year increase of 17%. In the first quarter, it will complete an investment of 23 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 35% [3]. - US Vice - President Vance talked with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu about the efforts to start negotiations with Iran and the elements of a potential agreement to end the war with Iran [3]. - Fed's Goolsbee said inflation is the primary risk, not ruling out the possibility of raising interest rates, and still retaining the space for rate cuts this year. Milan said if there are second - round effects of inflation and wage increases, interest rates may need to be raised. Daly said too much forward - looking guidance would create a false sense of certainty [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on the U.S. bond market and investor sentiment, highlighting a cautious outlook amid fluctuating interest rates and inflation concerns [3][4]. Group 1: U.S. Bond Market Dynamics - The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell to 4.34% on March 23, following concerns that the Federal Reserve may not lower interest rates this year [4] - The 2-year Treasury yield also dropped to 3.84%, marking its largest single-day decline in nearly a month, while the 30-year yield retreated to 4.91% after nearing 5% [4] - Despite a temporary rebound, the bond market has seen significant volatility, with the 2-year Treasury experiencing its highest daily price fluctuations since August of the previous year [6][7] Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Market Reactions - Investors remain cautious, preparing for further volatility in the bond market due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainty regarding the resolution of conflicts in the region [6] - Analysts suggest that the market is sensitive to developments regarding Iran and the status of the Strait of Hormuz, which remains a critical shipping route [6] - The global bond market has lost over $2.5 trillion in value since March, with total market capitalization dropping from nearly $77 trillion to $74.4 trillion, a decline of 3.1% [9] Group 3: Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations - The article notes that rising energy prices due to Middle Eastern conflicts have heightened inflation concerns, leading traders to prepare for potential interest rate hikes [4][9] - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may need to raise rates later in the year to curb demand and control inflation [7] - The UK bond market is facing significant challenges, with expectations of multiple rate hikes by the Bank of England due to its reliance on energy imports [9][10]