Group 1: Market News and Important Data - The price of light - sweet crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $1.58 to $65.59 per barrel, a gain of 2.47%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for November delivery in London rose 99 cents to $69.14 per barrel, a gain of 1.45%. The main SC crude oil contract closed up 1.14% at 495 yuan per barrel [1] - China's weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory decreased by 0.43 million barrels to 209.84 million barrels, a 0.21% decline; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 0.41 million barrels to 88.22 million barrels, a 0.47% decline; diesel commercial inventory decreased by 2.67 million barrels to 102.52 million barrels, a 2.54% decline; total refined oil commercial inventory decreased by 3.08 million barrels to 190.73 million barrels, a 1.59% decline [1] - Russian President Putin said that it is possible to reach a consensus on ensuring Ukraine's security [1] - Russia and the US Foreign Ministry will hold consultations [1] - The US issued a sanctions notice against entities related to Iran, aiming to weaken Iran's ability to attack the US and its allies [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - Western sanctions on Iranian oil have limited impact on its exports. Iranian oil exports have remained resilient this year, basically the same as or slightly higher than last year. Due to the low operating rate of local refineries this year, some sensitive oil may be hoarded in storage tanks. In the future, to achieve production - sales balance, Iranian oil may either offer large discounts to refineries or cut exports and production as the current inventory hoarding is not sustainable and quota shortages will limit the absorption capacity of local refineries [2] Group 3: Strategy - The short - term driving force for oil prices is strong. Short - term strategy is to go long on diesel cracking (event - driven), and medium - term strategy is to hold short positions [3] Group 4: Risks - Downside risks include significant OPEC production increases and macro black swan events [3] - Upside risks include tightened supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]