Group 1 - The article discusses President Trump's recent threats against Iran, indicating that the U.S. military will target bridges and power plants in Iran, emphasizing the urgency for the Iranian leadership to act [1][2] - Despite ongoing military actions by the U.S. and Israel for five weeks, approximately half of Iran's missile launchers remain intact, and Iran possesses thousands of suicide drones, complicating the military situation [2] - The U.S. Army, the largest branch of the military with around 450,000 active personnel, has deployed troops to the Middle East for air defense, with the 82nd Airborne Division soldiers arriving for potential ground operations in Iran [3] Group 2 - Brent crude oil prices surged to $141.36 per barrel, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis, driven by supply constraints following Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [4] - The current high spot prices reflect extreme tightness in physical supply, with the Brent crude futures market not fully capturing the impact of the blockade, according to Chevron's CEO [5] - Reports indicate that approximately 4 million barrels of oil have flowed out of the Strait of Hormuz, marking the largest single-day outflow since the onset of the Gulf War, although this is still a fraction of the normal daily flow [5]

Price Index Trends - The Business Price Index (BPI) rose significantly in March, reaching 1103 points, a month-on-month increase of 16.4% compared to the end of February[3] - The energy index increased by 25.3%, while the chemical index surged by 32.4%, but the non-ferrous index fell by 9.5% month-on-month[4] Commodity Price Movements - In the week of March 16-20, five energy commodities saw price increases of over 5%, accounting for 35.7% of the monitored items[4] - The average price of coal in the Bohai Rim region increased by 1.7%, while the chemical price index surged by 33.8% month-on-month[5] Real Estate Market - As of March 23, the second-hand housing price indices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen decreased by 1.0%, 1.8%, 1.4%, and 0.8% respectively[5] - The second-hand housing prices in these cities have seen significant highs over the past year, with peaks recorded at 159.44, 192.67, 181.71, and 251.13 points[6] Emerging Industries - The photovoltaic industry composite index fell by 13.2% in March, with significant declines in prices for battery cells and polysilicon[6] - Lithium carbonate futures prices decreased by 4.9% month-on-month, while DRAM spot prices fell between 5.3% and 8.9%[9] Shipping and Logistics - The China Container Freight Index (CCFI) rose by 9.0% in the fourth week of March, with significant increases in shipping rates to Los Angeles and New York[7] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) decreased by 5.1% month-on-month, indicating a mixed outlook for shipping costs[8] Food Prices - The average wholesale price of pork fell by 12.7% in March, while key vegetable prices dropped by 10.9%[9] - The price index for non-food items, represented by the ICPI, decreased slightly to 99.67, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.2%[10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the asymmetric pricing of diesel globally due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, highlighting the vulnerability of global supply chains and the significant price increases in various regions [2][3]. Price Increase Analysis - The global diesel price increase can be categorized into four groups based on the percentage rise since March: - **Extreme Increase Group (over 80%)**: Australia (87.79%) and the Philippines (107.08%) are heavily reliant on imports and face skyrocketing shipping costs due to the conflict [2][3]. - **High Increase Group (50-60%)**: The United States (57.4%), Singapore (50.2%), and the United Kingdom (49.3%) experience significant price hikes due to low domestic diesel inventories and strong demand [4]. - **Medium to High Increase Group (30-45%)**: China (44.2%), Canada (31.5%), Thailand (30.1%), and France (27.8%) see price increases, with China mitigating some impact through state controls and subsidies [4]. - **Low/Zero Increase Group**: India (0.0%) maintains stable prices due to strong government price controls and subsidies, while Malaysia (25.6%) may see further increases as data updates [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. Core Viewpoints of the Report Crude oil prices are expected to oscillate at a high level and may continue to rise in the short term due to increased geopolitical risks on the supply side, strong Asian refining activities on the demand side, and stable inventory with potential supply risks that could inhibit inventory accumulation [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contracts and Basis**: On March 30, 2026, the price of the SC main contract rose from 740.8 yuan/barrel on March 27 to 763.5 yuan/barrel, a 3.06% increase. The WTI and Brent main contract prices remained stable at 101.18 and 106.29 US dollars/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread strengthened from 0.91 US dollars/barrel to 4.15 US dollars/barrel, a 356.04% increase, and the SC - WTI spread strengthened from 6.02 US dollars/barrel to 9.26 US dollars/barrel, a 53.82% increase. The Brent - WTI spread remained stable at 5.11 US dollars/barrel, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread rose slightly from 16.9 yuan/barrel to 17.9 yuan/barrel, a 5.92% increase [1]. b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - **Supply Side**: Supply is affected by geopolitical risks. Houthi attacks on Israel and the US warning to Iran have increased concerns about supply disruptions. Vietnam's refineries are seeking to diversify their supply sources [2]. - **Demand Side**: Demand is strong, mainly driven by Asian refining activities. Vietnam's refineries have high production targets and capacity utilization, and India's export tax exemption may stimulate export demand. Asian naphtha refining profits have reached record highs [2]. - **Inventory Side**: On March 30, the Shanghai Futures Exchange data showed that the warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil futures remained unchanged at 3,511,000 barrels, fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged, low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 2,000 tons to 49,960 tons, and petroleum asphalt warehouse receipts decreased by 500 tons to 35,600 tons [2]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - **Futures Prices**: The SC price increased, while WTI, Brent, OPEC basket, and other prices remained unchanged. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices remained stable. - **Spreads**: SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads strengthened significantly, while the Brent - WTI spread remained stable. - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index, S&P 500, DAX index, and most other assets remained unchanged, and the RMB exchange rate had a 0.04% change [5]. b. Fuel Oil - **Futures Prices**: The FU and LU prices increased, while some international fuel oil futures prices remained unchanged. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices remained stable. - **Paper Prices**: Some paper prices were not available. - **Spreads**: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread was not available, and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased by 3.90%. - **Inventory**: Some Platts prices decreased, and Singapore's inventory increased [6]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation a. Supply - On March 30, Vietnam's Binh Son Refining and Petrochemical is negotiating to buy Russian crude oil, will increase purchases of African and US crude oil, and has secured 2.3 million barrels of Vietnamese crude oil for May and June production. It will produce 2 million tons of fuel in the second quarter with a capacity utilization rate of 123% and aims to produce 8.3 million tons of petroleum products in 2026 [7][8]. b. Demand - India exempts refineries in special economic zones from export taxes on diesel and aviation kerosene, and Indonesia will promote the B50 biodiesel policy [9]. c. Inventory - An oil storage tank in Haifa, Israel, was attacked, but the loss was minor. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's crude oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged, fuel oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged, low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased, and petroleum asphalt warehouse receipts decreased [10][11]. d. Market Information - The market's concern about long - term supply disruptions in the Middle East has increased, pushing Asian naphtha refining profits to a record high. Asian buyers are seeking alternative supply pricing mechanisms. Vietnam's refinery will put new oil storage tanks into use in May [12]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report includes various data charts such as WTI, Brent contract prices and spreads, US crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, and refinery operating rates [13][15][17].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The negotiation between the US and Iran has no obvious progress, and both sides have started a new round of chicken game. If the situation develops to the worst, the power plants and energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf will face a high risk of being attacked, leading to a short - term upward risk for oil prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - As of the day's close, the May - delivery light crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $3.24 to $102.88 per barrel, a 3.25% increase; the May - delivery Brent crude oil futures price rose 21 cents to $112.78 per barrel, a 0.19% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.41% at 760 yuan per barrel [1]. - The Kuwaiti oil tanker "Al - Salmi" was attacked by Iran in Dubai Port, causing hull damage and fire on board, but no casualties. The incident may lead to oil spills in the surrounding waters [1]. - The US Treasury extended the license to allow negotiations and signing of contingent contracts for the sale of Rosneft International's equity until May 1 [1]. - Sri Lanka's Ceypetco is negotiating with Russian oil companies to import petroleum products due to limited oil supply and soaring prices in the Middle East. It usually buys most of its crude oil from the UAE, and refined oil products from India and Singapore [1]. - Australian Prime Minister Albanese will hold a national cabinet meeting to address the energy crisis, with the main focus on strengthening the supply chain and discussing fuel rationing [1]. - Mexican President Obrador said that private companies are trying to buy fuel from Mexico's state - owned oil company and transport it to Cuba [1]. Investment Logic The lack of progress in US - Iran negotiations and the threats between the two sides increase the risk of attacks on power plants and energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, resulting in short - term upward pressure on oil prices [2]. Strategy Due to the high volatility of oil prices affected by short - term geopolitical situations, it is risky to participate in the crude oil market currently. It is recommended to use options to hedge risks [3]. Risks - Downward risks: The Middle East war eases, the Strait resumes navigation, and the energy crisis triggers a global economic crisis [4]. - Upward risks: The suspension time of the Strait of Hormuz exceeds expectations [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The EIA data shows that the accumulation of US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, and the overall oil product inventories continued to increase. The market focuses on the Middle East situation. Although some measures have alleviated short - term supply pressure, they are still less than the previous crude oil shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz. The possibility of a US - Iran negotiation is low, the situation in the Middle East remains tense, there is still a risk of crude oil price surges, and frequent Middle East news greatly disturbs crude oil prices. It is recommended to participate cautiously [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情分析 (Market Analysis) - When the deadline for Trump's "48 - hour" strike on Iranian power plants was approaching, Trump unilaterally extended the action by five days, causing crude oil prices to fall from high levels. However, the Middle East situation has not been substantially alleviated as Iran's attitude remains tough, and military actions continue. Crude oil prices rebounded after the fall [7] 3.2原油供给端 (Crude Oil Supply Side) - According to the OPEC latest monthly report, OPEC's average crude oil production in February was 28.63 million barrels per day, an increase of 164,000 barrels per day from January, mainly due to increased production in Venezuela, Iraq, etc. US crude oil production decreased by 11,000 barrels per day to 13.657 million barrels per day in the week of March 20, and is near the historical high. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory remained flat at 415.4 million barrels, the highest since the week of September 30, 2022, and has basically remained unchanged for five consecutive weeks [13] 3.3欧美成品油表现 (Performance of European and American Refined Oil Products) - The gasoline crack spreads in the US and Europe fell by $4.5 per barrel and $6.5 per barrel respectively; the diesel crack spreads in the US and Europe fell by $6.5 per barrel and $10 per barrel respectively. According to the latest data from the US Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.678 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.38% compared with the same period last year, with a reduced over - the - same - period high. Gasoline weekly production increased by 2.25% to 8.924 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 8.796 million barrels per day, a 0.41% decrease compared with the same period last year. Diesel weekly production decreased by 18.89% to 3.568 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 3.933 million barrels per day, a 1.66% decrease compared with the same period last year. The decrease in diesel and other oil products led to a 7.56% week - on - week decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [27][32] 3.4美国原油库存 (US Crude Oil Inventory) - On the evening of March 25, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories for the week ending March 20 increased by 6.926 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 477,000 barrels and 4.40% higher than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.593 million barrels, more than the expected decrease of 2.143 million barrels. Refined oil inventories increased by 3.032 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 1.292 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 3.421 million barrels. The accumulation of US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, and the overall oil product inventories continued to increase [41] 3.5地缘风险 (Geopolitical Risks) - On the 27th local time, the Israeli military launched air strikes on Iranian facilities, and the Iranian side retaliated on the 28th and 29th. The US military sent troops to the region, and the Houthi armed forces in Yemen launched attacks on Israel, making the situation in the Middle East more tense [47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the oil and petrochemical industry, recommending key companies such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum, China Petrochemical, and Intercontinental Oil and Gas [3][6][7]. Core Insights - The blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has led to a significant restructuring of the global oil market, with Brent crude prices exceeding $112 per barrel, marking a monthly increase of over 55%, the largest in recent years [6][7]. - The average daily oil throughput in the Strait dropped from 14.95 million barrels per day to 1.74 million barrels per day, a decline of 88.4%, with tanker traffic plummeting by 97.5% [10][11]. - Major oil-producing countries in the Persian Gulf have been forced to reduce production by a total of 9.26 million barrels per day, a decrease of 38%, which offsets OPEC+ plans for increased production [12][13]. - Refinery operating rates in major Asian oil-consuming countries have decreased by 8-15 percentage points, leading to a reduction in crude oil processing demand by approximately 3-4 million barrels per day [14][15]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude futures closed at $112.57 per barrel, with a week-on-week increase of 0.34%, while WTI futures rose by 1.44% to $99.64 per barrel [20]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased to 543, down by 9 rigs week-on-week and 49 rigs year-on-year [33][34]. Refining Sector - The comprehensive price spread for major refined products in Singapore increased to $73.70 per barrel, up by $3.40 from the previous week [52]. - The price spread for naphtha and ethylene has also seen significant increases, indicating improved refining margins [6][50]. Polyester Sector - PTA profitability has increased, while the profitability of polyester filament yarn has decreased, indicating mixed performance within the polyester supply chain [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that oil prices have upward elasticity, with companies like CNOOC, China Petroleum, and China Petrochemical expected to benefit from high oil prices in 2026 [6][7]. - It also highlights the potential for increased investment in oil and gas exploration and development, recommending companies such as CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering [6][7].

Report Overview - This is an early report on crude oil and refined oil, focusing on market data, news, inventory, and weekly views [2] 1. Market Data 1.1 Price and Spread Changes from March 23 - 27, 2026 - WTI rose from $88.13 to $99.64, up $5.16 [3] - BRENT increased from $99.94 to $112.57, up $4.56 [3] - SC increased by 7.70, OMAN by 9.34 [3] - BRENT 2 - month spread rose by 1.13, reaching 7.25 [3] - WTI - BRENT spread changed by 0.60, reaching - 12.93 [3] - Domestic gasoline - BRT decreased by 270.00 [3] - Japan naphtha - BRT increased by 7.98, reaching 315.61 [3] 1.2 Other Market Indicators - On March 27, 2026, BFO reached 111.68, up 1.9 from March 23 [3] 2. Daily News 2.1 Iran - US Tensions - Iran's Parliament Speaker says armed forces are waiting for US ground operations [3] - US and Israel attacked an Iranian dock near the Strait of Hormuz, causing 5 deaths and 4 injuries [4] - US Vice - President says the US has no intention of staying in Iran and will withdraw soon [4] - US government has discussed seizing Kharg Island [5] 2.2 Revenue Potential of Strait of Hormuz - If Iran sets up a toll system in the Strait of Hormuz, its monthly revenue could reach over $800 million, equivalent to 15% - 20% of Iran's monthly oil export revenue in 2024 [4] 3. Weekly Inventory 3.1 EIA Report for the Week of March 20, 2026 - US crude oil exports decreased by 1.576 million barrels per day to 3.322 million barrels per day [5] - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 0.011 million barrels to 13.657 million barrels per day [5] - Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.926 million barrels to 456 million barrels, a 1.54% increase [5] - US crude oil product four - week average supply was 20.678 million barrels per day, a 2.37% increase compared to the same period last year [5] - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory remained at 415.4 million barrels [5] - US commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.464 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.73 million barrels per day from the previous week [5] 4. Weekly View - This week, oil prices fluctuated at high levels. On Friday, due to the tense situation between the US and Iran, the absolute price strengthened again. The Brent month - spread reached a new high, and the Oman crude oil discount weakened significantly. Crude oil spot prices around the world converged [5] - The US has not ruled out a ground offensive, but it's unclear to what extent Trump will approve the Pentagon's plan. The passage of VLCCs through the Strait of Hormuz remains interrupted, and Saudi Arabia has fully shifted to Yanbu Port for exports, with a maximum export volume of 5 million barrels per day. Currently, there is no supply interruption in Saudi Arabia, and the subsequent export situation at Yanbu Port should be monitored [5] - In the refined oil market, the cracking spread of European diesel reached a new high, the refined oil inventory in the European ARA region decreased significantly, and the refined oil inventory in the US increased. Before the passage through the strait is restored, the fundamental supply interruption will continue. With the recent escalation of the situation, the absolute price will rise, but attention should be paid to the price fluctuation risk caused by Trump's TACO [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economic and political situation is complex, with the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran having a significant impact on the energy market, leading to increased fuel costs in the shipping industry and potential disruptions to the supply chain [10][16]. - The Chinese economy shows a mixed picture, with some positive signs in industrial profits but also challenges in areas such as manufacturing PMI and consumer spending [2][19]. - The financial market is experiencing volatility, with bond ETFs becoming a safe - haven due to rising risk aversion, and the stock and bond markets being affected by energy price increases and inflation expectations [21][22]. 3. Summary by Directory Macro Data - GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter and the same period last year [1]. - The manufacturing PMI in February 2026 was 49.0%, down from the previous month and the same period last year, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1]. - The non - manufacturing PMI in February 2026 was 49.5%, remaining the same as the previous month but lower than the same period last year [1]. - Social financing in February 2026 was 2385.5 billion yuan, slightly lower than the previous month but higher than the same period last year [1]. - M0, M1, and M2 growth rates in February 2026 were 14.1%, 5.9%, and 9.0% respectively, showing an upward trend compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - New RMB loans in February 2026 were 900 billion yuan, higher than the previous month but lower than the same period last year [1]. - CPI in February 2026 was 1.3% year - on - year, up from the previous month and a significant improvement from the same period last year [1]. - PPI in February 2026 was - 0.9% year - on - year, an improvement from the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - Fixed - asset investment in the first two months of 2026 increased by 1.8% year - on - year, a significant improvement from the previous year [1]. - Retail sales of consumer goods in the first two months of 2026 increased by 2.8% year - on - year, lower than the previous year [1]. - Exports in February 2026 increased by 39.6% year - on - year, a significant improvement from the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - Imports in February 2026 increased by 13.8% year - on - year, also showing an upward trend [1]. Commodity Investment Comprehensive - From January to February, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year - on - year, and the growth rate of operating income improved significantly [2]. - China's Ministry of Commerce launched two trade barrier investigations against the US in response to the latter's 301 investigations [2]. - From April 22, QFIIs and RQFIIs can trade 20 - rubber and international copper option contracts [3]. - On March 27, 31 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 38 had negative basis [3]. - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran continues, with Iran increasing its attacks on the US and Israel, and the US claiming to control the Strait of Hormuz [3][4]. - The Fed Vice - Chair expects the US economy to expand at about 2% or slightly faster in 2026, with stable unemployment [4]. Metals - Since late March, international gold prices have experienced a "historic" shock, and after a sharp decline, there is a mixed reaction in the market [5]. - Since March, the domestic non - ferrous futures sector has shown a downward trend, especially copper futures, which have fallen by more than 8% this month [5]. - Two large aluminum plants in Bahrain and the UAE were attacked by Iran, which may impact the market [6][7]. Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - A new rare earth - niobate mineral, Xianhuaite - (La), was discovered in the Bayan Obo deposit, which is of great value for the study of the deposit's formation [8]. - Due to the obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, some Asian countries are increasing coal production and use [9]. - Indonesia has no plan to levy windfall taxes on coal and nickel exports on April 1 [9]. - Bauxite shipments increased by 16% year - on - year, but experts are cautious about the market outlook [9]. Energy and Chemicals - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has led to a significant increase in the fuel cost of the global shipping industry, and the industry is facing pressure but also has an opportunity for energy transformation [10]. - Russia will ban gasoline exports from April 1 to July 31 to stabilize prices and ensure domestic supply [10]. - India has imposed windfall taxes on diesel and aviation turbine fuel exports [10]. - Saudi Arabia's key oil pipeline is operating at full capacity, but the Red Sea may become a new conflict front [11]. - The US allows Cuba to receive a large - scale oil shipment from Russia, breaking the oil blockade [11]. Agricultural Products - On March 29, the national pig market showed a widespread upward trend, but the increase was regional and phased [12]. - In the third week of March, the average price of pigs in 30 monitored provinces decreased by 28% year - on - year, reaching a new low since June 2018 [13]. - The State Council's Food Safety Office and the State Administration for Market Regulation have taken measures to address food safety issues exposed by the "3.15" Gala [13]. - China will implement zero - tariff measures for all African diplomatic countries starting from May 1, 2026 [13]. Financial News Open Market - This week, 474.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature in the central bank's open market. Last week, the central bank conducted 474.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 231.9 billion yuan. Additionally, 450 billion yuan of MLF matured last week, and the central bank conducted 500 billion yuan of MLF operations [14]. - On March 27, the central bank conducted 146.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 125.7 billion yuan [14]. Key News - The US - Israel - Iran conflict continues, with the US claiming to control the Strait of Hormuz and Iran increasing its counter - attacks [16]. - The US is preparing for a ground operation in Iran, and there are large - scale protests against the Trump administration in the US [17]. - This week, there are many important events in the global market, including economic data releases, policy changes, and corporate earnings announcements [18]. - The State Council emphasizes the development of the service industry and the construction of a hierarchical diagnosis and treatment system [19]. - From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased significantly, especially in the non - ferrous, chemical, and semiconductor industries [19]. - The People's Bank of China requires the improvement of the financial risk prevention and resolution system [20]. - China's foreign exchange market shows strong resilience, and the RMB exchange rate remains stable [20]. - China and the EU agree to set up a trade and investment working group and continue dialogue on export control [20]. - China's Ministry of Commerce launches two trade barrier investigations against the US [21]. - Some banks in China have lowered deposit interest rates, and bond ETFs have become a safe - haven for investors [21]. - Energy price increases have led to stagflation expectations, hitting the stock, bond, and gold markets, and investors are flocking to cash [22]. - Some companies have bond - related events, such as default and regulatory measures [22]. - Some companies' credit ratings have changed [23]. Bond Market - The inter - bank bond market is slightly bullish, with most yields of major interest - rate bonds declining, but the 30 - year treasury bond futures contract closed down [24]. - The exchange - traded bond market has mixed performance, with some bonds rising and some falling [24]. - The convertible bond index rose, with some bonds having significant gains and losses [25]. - Most money market interest rates declined, and Shibor short - term varieties also decreased [25][26]. - The winning bid rate of the Import - Export Bank's 3 - year fixed - rate bond was 1.5045% [26]. - European bond yields rose, while US bond yields showed mixed trends [26][27]. Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down, and the US dollar index rose, with non - US currencies showing mixed performance [28]. Research Report Highlights - Citic Securities suggests focusing on countries with resource, geographical, and manufacturing advantages, and recommends sticking to China's advantageous manufacturing industries [29][30]. - Citic Securities believes that the long - term demand for bank self - operated funds in exchange - traded corporate bonds and ABS products is unlikely to change fundamentally [30]. - Citic Securities expects the Strait of Hormuz's passing capacity to partially recover, which may drive up oil shipping prices and increase the profits of oil shipping companies in 2026 [30]. - Tianfeng Fixed - Income believes that there is no need to overly worry about large banks selling ultra - long - term bonds in March, and their buying power may increase in April [30]. - Xingzheng Fixed - Income believes that the credit bond curve showed a bull - steep trend in March, and the end - of - quarter adjustment may be a good investment opportunity [30]. Stock Market - The Shanghai Stock Exchange will deepen the comprehensive reform of capital market investment and financing, focusing on serving new - quality productivity, building a "long - term investment" ecosystem, and cultivating Chinese - characteristic financial culture [33]. Today's Reminders - On March 30, 263 bonds will be listed, 60 bonds will be issued, 113 bonds will be paid, and 653 bonds will have principal and interest repaid [31][32].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on the energy sector, particularly regarding oil prices and geopolitical risks, suggesting a potential for strong performance in oil products despite current challenges [1][13]. Core Insights - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly Iran's strategic maneuvers, is expected to have long-term implications for global supply chains and energy markets [1][3]. - The energy market anticipates a six-week disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to elevated oil prices and a projected 0.7% downward adjustment in Eurozone GDP [1][14]. - Central banks, particularly the European Central Bank, are expected to raise interest rates in response to inflationary pressures, with two rate hikes anticipated in April and June [1][14]. - The gold market narrative is shifting, with central banks potentially reducing their gold holdings to defend currency values, indicating a possible peak at $5,500 [1][5]. - The dollar has regained its status as a preferred safe-haven asset, particularly in the context of oil price shocks, outperforming other assets like bonds and gold [1][9]. Summary by Sections Geopolitical Risks - Iran's resilience and strategic decisions have shifted the balance of power, complicating U.S. military objectives and increasing risks in the Strait of Hormuz [2][3]. - The potential for a ceasefire remains uncertain, with both sides showing significant public disagreement but a lack of clear military solutions [2][3]. Energy Market Dynamics - The refining sector is facing supply challenges due to reduced crude oil availability, particularly in Asia, which is expected to impact global markets in the coming weeks [1][13]. - The report highlights a strong outlook for oil products, despite current supply chain disruptions, with a recommendation against shorting diesel due to critical supply lines being affected [1][13]. Economic Forecasts - Adjustments to economic forecasts for Europe and the UK are driven by energy market changes, with a projected cumulative GDP decline of 0.7% for the Eurozone [1][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring energy dynamics and price surveys to gauge future economic conditions in Europe and the UK [1][15]. Market Sentiment and Strategies - The report notes a shift in market focus from inflation to long-term growth concerns, with potential strategies favoring duration and yield curve positioning [1][7]. - There is a recognition of the need for open-mindedness regarding bearish views on gold, as market dynamics may shift significantly post-conflict [1][6].