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高盛调研发现A股机器人“订单荒”?产业链上市公司:静待订单落地
第一财经· 2025-11-11 10:11
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting expectations and realities in the humanoid robot sector, highlighting a recent Goldman Sachs report that indicates a lack of confirmed large orders despite optimistic production capacity plans from several companies [4][12]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Capacity Planning - Goldman Sachs conducted a survey of nine Chinese robot supply chain companies, revealing that while they are planning annual production capacities ranging from 100,000 to 1 million units, none have confirmed large orders or clear timelines for mass production [4][6]. - Companies like Top Group and Sanhua Intelligent Control are actively planning production facilities in Thailand and Mexico, with Top Group's Thai factory projected to have an annual capacity of 1 million units and an investment of 7-8 billion yuan [7][8]. - Despite the current lack of orders, industry insiders suggest that the proactive capacity planning is typical for emerging industries and does not necessarily indicate an impending oversupply [5][12]. Group 2: Company Responses and Market Dynamics - Several companies, including Sanhua Intelligent Control and Top Group, have acknowledged the absence of confirmed orders but emphasize that their capacity planning is based on guidance from major clients [10][11]. - The article notes that the current "order vacuum" should not be hastily interpreted as a sign of oversupply, as the industry is still in its early development stages, and the demand-supply mismatch is common in new sectors [13]. - Companies like Minth Group and Double Ring Transmission are expanding their production capabilities in anticipation of future demand, with Minth expecting humanoid robot-related revenue to reach 5 billion yuan by 2030 [8][12]. Group 3: Long-term Industry Outlook - The report suggests that the current lack of orders does not negate the long-term growth potential of humanoid robots, as the industry is still exploring specific applications and technological paths [13]. - Goldman Sachs maintains a positive outlook on the long-term trends in humanoid robot technology, although it emphasizes the need to monitor key product performance and specific end-use applications to assess potential technological breakthroughs [12][13].