美联储降息预期下降，商品有何影响 20251126 摘要 美联储 12 月降息预期分歧加大，官员对经济数据解读和未来政策路径 存在明显差异，鸽派认为劳动力市场疲软支持降息，鹰派则担忧通胀反 弹，政策不确定性增加。 国内宏观经济方面，11 月 LPR 维持不变，央行认为货币政策仍有空间 但边际效率下降，年内进一步宽松可能性不大，或留待明年发力稳增长。 黑色商品分化，煤焦类商品大幅下跌，焦煤单周跌幅达 9%，焦炭跌幅 超 4%；铁矿石表现相对强劲，全周上涨约 1.2%。螺纹钢和热卷市场整 体表现反复，处于窄幅震荡整理状态。 铁矿石近期表现强于其他品种，但随着基差修复完成及发运增长带来到 港量上升，未来供需矛盾可能加剧，短期内价格可能呈现宽幅震荡走势。 贵金属延续偏弱格局，金银比徘徊在 81 附近，美联储内部分歧导致 12 月降息概率降低，俄乌、中美关系缓和等因素使得黄金中短期缺乏上涨 动力，或维持高位震荡。 原油市场中期供给宽松趋势压制油价反弹，地缘政治因素短期扰动，但 中长期供需错配仍是主要矛盾，IEA 预测今年及明年全球原油供应过剩 压力依然存在。 生猪现货价格持续下行，养殖户亏损，出栏节奏高位但消费未显著增 ...

有机硅行业交流及展望 20251126 摘要 2025 年 11 月，鲁西化工牵头行业协调会议，旨在通过限产缓解有机硅 单体产能过剩问题，初步决定 12 月 1 日起限产 30%，并可能根据市场 情况调整至 20%，同时设定价格上限为 15,000 元，通过流量计监控生 产，核查小组定期检查。 有机硅行业内公司成本差异显著，多数公司含税成本约 11,000 元/吨， 恒盛硅业因能源优势成本低于 10,000 元/吨，部分国企成本高达 13,000 元/吨，12,000 元/吨售价对部分企业仍可能亏损。 有机硅技术成熟，但为避免新资本涌入导致供需失衡，会议强调控制价 格上涨幅度以维持市场稳定，且行业内企业达成共识，未来三至五年内 不进行大规模扩建。 全球有机硅行业开工率普遍在 75%-85%之间，欧洲因能源成本高企开 工率下降，美国陶瓷计划 2026 年关闭英国工厂，该工厂占全球约 5.2%的市场份额，国外整体开工率不到 80%。 国内 DMC（甲基氯化物）2025 年实际增速为 4.2%，远低于去年的 16.7%，主要受出口影响，并非市场普遍认为的 15%高速增长。 Q&A 近期有机硅行业会议的背景和主要内容 ...

目前，自主品牌接手合资品牌剩余产能的现象屡见不鲜。随着广汽菲克、广汽三菱、东风雷诺等合资车企相继退出市场，其工厂纷纷被自主品牌接手。广汽 三菱长沙工厂被广汽埃安接手，东风雷诺武汉工厂被岚图汽车接盘，东风日产云峰工厂也开始生产岚图FREE。 然而，就整个行业而言，目前产能过剩问题依然严峻。工业和信息化部原副部长苏波指出，现有燃油车产能至少3000多万辆，新能源车已建成的2000多万辆 产能大多为新建，油电转换仅消化了200万-300万辆的燃油车产能，这意味着仅新能源汽车就有1700万辆产能未被充分利用。 因此，从"增量扩张"转向"存量优化"是汽车行业未来的必然路径。而随着长安汽车接手了北京现代重庆工厂，深蓝汽车又将得到怎样的业绩提升，GPLP犀 牛财经也将继续关注。 近日，长安汽车接手了北京现代重庆工厂，并将其改为了深蓝汽车生产线。 公开资料显示，北京现代重庆工厂于2015年开工建设，2017年8月建成投产，总投资为77亿元，年产能30万辆。然而，因多种原因，其于2021年12月停工。 2023年8月11日首次挂牌出售，转让底价为36.8亿元，却无人问津。此后两次降价，最终在2023年底以16.2亿元，不到首次 ...

但利德巴克表示，这类为长期增长而缩减总体产能的投资，可能只有大型企业才有能力承担。并非所有 特种化学品都能真正盈利，因为其研发、生产及审批成本高昂，且所有这些环节都需要时间。 当前，亚洲地区持续新增产能，全球石化产品供应过剩，同时，需求疲软的局面迟迟未改。石化企业正 因利润率下滑和经营亏损，被迫通过整合重组直面现实挑战。近日，安迅思(ICIS)副总裁兼化工分析主 管亚历克斯·利德巴克表示，全球石化市场短期预计难以复苏，企业需正视重组的必要性。他指出："石 化企业必须做出艰难决策，并相应调整自身规模。" 以韩国企业为例，尽管重组谈判尚未完成，但它们已同意将石脑油裂解中心(NCC)的产能削减至多四分 之一。截至目前，HD现代化学公司与乐天化学正在敲定业务重组计划，拟将大山工业园区的石脑油裂 解中心整合为合资企业，以此削减乙烯产量。其他企业仍在就重组方案进行磋商，韩国政府要求相关计 划须在年底前提交。与此同时，行业整合正同步推进以优化运营。部分企业如乐天化学等，计划从基础 化工转型，进军特种化学品领域。 2025至2026年全球石化产能持续扩张，对全球石化企业而言并非好消息。目前，除印度等少数地区外， 多数经济体需 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年11月25日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.32个百分点至78.83%，PVC开工 率转而小幅增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率继续小幅回落，虽超过过去两年同期， 只是仍是偏低水平。印度将关于PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度 反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC以价换量，上周出口签单环比回升。上周社会库存小幅增加，但目前仍 偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比 降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积 环比回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC开工率 同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，40万吨/年的天津渤化已满负荷生产，30万吨/年的甘肃耀望和30 万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化试车后低负荷运行。目前PVC产业还未有实际政策落地，老装置也大多通过技改 升级，当然反内卷与老旧装置淘汰，解决石化产能过剩问题仍是宏观政策，将影响后续行情。 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/25 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/11/1 8 801 2010 2005 2370 2350 2335 2568 236 318 - -23 - 2025/11/1 9 801 1995 1985 2348 2350 2335 2578 235 317 -41 -20 - 2025/11/2 0 801 2007 1990 2355 2350 2340 2578 236 317 -37 -20 - 2025/11/2 1 801 2003 1985 2350 2350 2340 2585 234 317 -25 -20 - 2025/11/2 4 801 2053 2028 2360 2372 2340 2588 234 - 39 -20 - 日度变化 0 50 43 10 22 0 3 0 - 64 0 - 观点 现实差继续，伊朗停车慢于预期，11月应还是高进口，01矛盾较难处理，港口制裁的事情预计能在限气结 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Neutral (not explicitly stated in a clear rating system but based on the context of market analysis) [6] - Methanol: Consider buying the 5 - 9 month spread, but with caution [6] - Pure Benzene: Bearish bias, consider option configuration [3] - Styrene: Price supported but limited upside [3] - Polypropylene: Slight bearish due to supply increase and weak demand [2] - Plastic: Bearish due to increased supply and weak demand [2] - PVC: Follow cost - end changes, supply high and demand weak [7] - Caustic Soda: Weak operation, follow profit changes [7] - PX: Strong before new capacity, short - term supply - demand weakening [5] - PTA: Cost - driven, reduced inventory build - up expectation [5] - Ethylene Glycol: Short - term rebound expected but limited space [5] - Short Fiber: Price follows raw materials, no new investment pressure [5] - Bottle Chips: Cost - driven, long - term over - capacity pressure [5] - Soda Ash: Bullish short - term, oversupply long - term [8] - Glass: Limited downside, consider long - glass short - soda strategy [8] Core Views - The overall chemical market is complex, with different products showing various trends based on supply, demand, cost, and market sentiment factors. Some products have short - term bullish or bearish trends, while others face long - term challenges such as over - capacity [2][3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Two - olefin futures contracts are fluctuating around the 5 - day moving average. Plastic and polypropylene futures are weak due to increased supply and weak demand. Polyethylene supply pressure increases with reduced maintenance and more shipments, and demand from downstream industries is weak. Polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand is limited [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures are weak, and the rebound is bearish. Consider option configuration. Styrene price is supported by tight supply - demand balance but has limited upside due to uncertain cost and demand support [3] Polyester - PX is strong before new capacity but short - term supply - demand is weakening. PTA is cost - driven with reduced inventory build - up expectation. Ethylene glycol has a short - term rebound expectation but limited space. Short fiber price follows raw materials, and bottle chips are cost - driven with long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol can consider buying the 5 - 9 month spread due to overseas production cuts and low valuation, but be cautious of weak reality. Urea supply is sufficient, and the market may return to a stalemate [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC has good export to India but weak domestic demand, and it may follow cost - end changes. Caustic soda is in a weak operation due to high supply and low demand [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is de - stocking and bullish short - term but oversupplied long - term. Glass has limited downside and can consider the long - glass short - soda strategy [8]

冠通期货研究报告 --PVC周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2025年11月24日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.32个百分点至78.83%，PVC开工率转而小幅增 加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率继续小幅回落，虽超过过去两年同期，只是仍是偏低水平。印度将关 于PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。印度反倾销税也大概率取消，PVC以价换量，上周 出口签单环比回升。上周社会库存小幅增加，但目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10月份，房地产仍在调 整阶段，投资、新开工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城 市商品房周度成交面积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC 开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，40万吨/年的天津渤化已满负荷生 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium iron phosphate (LFP) material industry is facing intense competition and significant profit pressure, with the entire industry experiencing continuous losses for over 36 months, and an average debt ratio of 67.81% among six listed companies [2]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The current pre-tax cost of LFP materials has reached 15,600 CNY/ton, while the market average price is only slightly above 14,000 CNY/ton, leading to a loss of nearly 10% per ton [2]. - The overall gross profit margin for the "cathode materials" business among 20 listed companies is only 8.76%, ranking 13th among 15 sub-sectors in the lithium battery industry, while the gross profit margin for downstream power battery companies is 20.38%, indicating a profitability ratio of 2.33 times [4]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the combined net profit of ten listed companies in the cathode materials sector was only 552 million CNY, while a single battery manufacturer, CATL, achieved a net profit of 49.034 billion CNY, which is 88.83 times that of the ten cathode material companies combined [5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand structure of the cathode materials industry has fundamentally changed since 2023, with significant capital entering upstream production while downstream demand has not kept pace, leading to overcapacity and intensified competition [6]. - Approximately 97 super projects in the cathode materials sector have been announced by domestic companies, with a total investment budget exceeding 450 billion CNY [6]. - Effective production capacity for cathode materials is projected to reach 401.01 million tons in 2024, increasing to 532.9 million tons in 2025 and 679.9 million tons in 2026, while market demand is expected to be only 390.8 million tons in 2025 and 516.8 million tons in 2026, resulting in excess capacity of approximately 142.1 million tons and 163.1 million tons, respectively [6]. Group 3: Company Performance and Future Outlook - The effective production capacity of major companies is projected to increase significantly, with Hunan Youneng leading at 145,000 tons by 2026, followed by Wanrun New Energy at 52,000 tons and Fulmin Precision at 50,000 tons [8][9]. - The total planned production capacity for LFP materials by 29 domestic companies has reached 1,064.15 million tons, with an additional 1.1 million tons planned by overseas companies, indicating a combined capacity of nearly 1,200 million tons [10]. - The industry consensus is that globalization is essential for sustainable growth, with companies needing to complete their global layouts to reshape the industry landscape [12][13].

Group 1 - The core issue is that despite China's large population, consumer spending remains low, with retail sales growth significantly lagging behind pre-pandemic levels, only reaching 7.2% in 2023 and dropping to 4-5% in 2025 [2][4][6] - Household savings have surged, with deposits increasing by over 14 trillion in 2024, reaching 151 trillion, and an additional 12.73 trillion added in the first three quarters of 2025, while retail sales growth continues to decline [4][6] - The phenomenon of "14 billion people cannot drive consumption" has become a trending topic, highlighting the disconnect between population size and consumer spending, with urban areas experiencing high vacancy rates in retail spaces [6][8] Group 2 - Key factors contributing to low consumer spending include rapid aging of the population, with over 300 million people aged 60 and above, leading to different consumption habits focused on healthcare and savings rather than discretionary spending [8][10] - The real estate market downturn has negatively impacted wealth expectations, with many families seeing significant declines in property values, leading to reduced consumer confidence and spending [10][12] - Income growth is not keeping pace with inflation and housing costs, with nominal growth around 5% in 2025, but real disposable income growth being much lower, causing consumers to prioritize savings over spending [12][14] Group 3 - Excess capacity in various industries has led to price wars and thin profit margins, making it difficult for companies to raise wages, which in turn affects consumer spending [14][16] - A cycle of low spending has emerged, where reduced consumer expenditure leads to lower sales for businesses, stagnant wages, and further reluctance to spend, resulting in a significant portion of funds remaining in banks [16][18] - Government initiatives aimed at boosting consumption have started to show positive effects, with retail sales rebounding in mid-2025 and GDP growth stabilizing at 5.2%, indicating a potential recovery in consumer confidence [18][20]