国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2026年3月1日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1、卓创资讯根据对国内各省市代表性双胶纸生产企业调研发现，2月份双胶纸企业库存天数较上月上升10.83%，本月趋势由降转升。春节 前后市场买货行为较少，假期间交易基本停滞，市场需求降至低位，纸厂接单情况不佳，月内发运量有限，库存持续攀升。 2、2月份双胶纸产量预估值为71.07万吨，较上月实际产量下降18.63%，本月趋势由升转降；生产企业开工负荷率50.85%，较上月实际开工 下降4.36个百分点，本月降幅较上月扩大3.69个百分点。受春节假期影响，2月中下旬山东、江苏及河南部分产线停机，节后复产进度 ...

2月27日，晶科能源（688223.SH）披露2025年年度业绩快报，预计全年营业总收入654.92亿元，同 比减少29.18%；利润总额-91.09亿元，上年同期-0.77亿元；归属于上市公司股东的净利润-67.86亿元， 同比减少6959.50%；归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润-76.43亿元。 去年，光伏组件均价跌至0.7-0.78元/W，较2023年高点（约1.5元/W）腰斩，部分时段甚至跌破0.65 元/W，导致"量增价跌利亏"局面，这是公司业绩变化的主因。 原材料成本逆势上涨也在吞噬利润。比如，多晶硅现货价格在2025年年内涨幅超60%，白银价格上 涨140%，铜价上涨近40%，推高银浆、焊带等关键材料成本，组件生产成本与销售价格形成倒挂。 在上述困境下，晶科能源在2025年上半年的业绩表现已经让投资者震惊。其营业收入同比骤 降-32.63%，仅实现318.31亿元。归母净利润更是从2024年同期的盈利12亿元，断崖式暴跌后巨亏-29.09 亿元，同比降幅高达-342.38%。 冰冻三尺非一日之寒。实际上，晶科能源主营业务早在2024年就显露颓势，造血能力衰退在当时已 见端倪。202 ...

2月27日晚间，晶科能源公告称，2025年度营业总收入为654.92亿元，较上年同期减少29.18%；归属于 母公司所有者的净利润为-67.86亿元，同比盈转亏。 2025年末，公司总资产1191.59亿元，较期初减少1.61%；归属于母公司的所有者权益254.62亿元，较期 初减少21.19%。 晶科能源表示，报告期内，全球光伏产业链价格波动加剧，叠加海外市场贸易保护政策扰动， 光伏组 件一体化各环节的盈利水平总体承压。面对行业波动，公司坚持稳健经营、 技术引领，发布了行业领 先的新一代"飞虎3"高效组件产品，并持续推动产能技术升级改造，同时储能业务取得快速发展，光储 协同优势成效显著。 但报告期内，光伏组件价格整体处于低位，公司高功率产品出货占比仍较低，同时基于谨慎性原则，公 司对出现减值迹象的长期资产进行减值测试，经过审慎评估将按照企业会计准则计提资产减值准备，对 业绩有一定影响，综合导致全年经营业绩出现亏损。 在2月27日最新的投资者关系活动上，晶科能源介绍，高功率组件是行业未来发展趋势，可显著提升电 站发电能力，降低度电成本，提升电站项目收益率，并加速行业落后产能出清， 从而引导行业走向高 质量发展 ...

2月27日，晶科能源发布2025年度业绩快报公告称，报告期内，公司实现营业总收入654.92亿元，较上 年同期减少29.18%; 实现归属于母公司所有者的净亏损为67.86亿元，较上年同期减少6959.50%。 光伏巨头晶科能源(688223.SH)12年来首次亏损。 智通财经查阅晶科能源历年财报获悉，这是该公司自2013年以来首次亏损。2012年，该公司净亏损曾为 9.71亿元，此后一直处于盈利状态，并于2023年创下74.4亿元的净利润高值，2024年净利润回落至 9892.76万元。 针对2025年净利润亏损，晶科能源表示，报告期内，全球光伏产业链价格波动加剧，叠加海外市场贸易 保护政策扰动，光伏组件一体化各环节的盈利水平总体承压。光伏组件价格整体处于低位，公司高功率 产品出货占比仍较低。同时，该公司对出现减值迹象的长期资产进行减值测试，经过审慎评估将按照企 业会计准则计提资产减值准备，对业绩有一定影响，综合导致全年经营业绩出现亏损。 不过，也有光伏企业2025年业绩出现修复迹象，净亏损同比大幅收窄。2月26日晚间，大全能源发布 2025年业绩快报公告称，公司实现归属于上市公司股东的净亏损11.29亿元 ...

欧盟执行机构计划于下周三提出其"工业化加速法案"(Industrial Accelerator Act)，其中将要求在使用公共 资金时优先采购欧盟的本地制造产品。 欧洲钢铁行业周四表示，欧盟将于下周正式出台优先使用欧洲本地制造材料的相关规定，必须将钢铁纳 入其中，并且"本地"应仅被理解为英国和挪威等近欧盟系统，即在欧盟"Made in Europe/Industrial Accelerator Act"框架下，可被视为应优先采购的欧洲本土或高度一体化的欧盟近邻来源。欧洲钢铁业主 张把"本地"解释得更窄：核心是欧盟内部，外加少数与欧盟制度、市场规则和脱碳约束高度接近的近邻 国家。 汽车制造商及其他行业呼吁将这些条款扩大适用于其供应链所在的全球其他国家，例如英国和土耳其。 Eggert表示，最新草案似乎已删除针对钢铁专项的"欧洲制造"要求。 他表示，许多其他贸易伙伴都在购买本地制造的产品，"印度大规模如此，中国、美国也都是'购买本国 产品'，但它们是对所有生产都这么做，而我们现在这里只是在讨论低碳钢。所以，如果你想触发脱碳 投资，那么你也必须把钢铁纳入这里"，他强调，并表示所指的是该法案。 挪威(以及冰岛、列支敦 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lushan New Materials clarified that its space packaging adhesive film has not passed Starlink certification and the actual controller plans to reduce holdings by no more than 3% of the company's total share capital [1][2] Recent Events - On February 24, 2026, Lushan New Materials clarified on the interactive platform that its space packaging adhesive film has not passed Starlink certification and has not supplied directly to China Star Network, stating that related news is untrue [2] - On February 20, 2026, the company announced that the actual controller and concerted parties plan to reduce holdings by no more than 3% of the company's total share capital (approximately 4.84 million shares) from March 10 to June 9, 2026 [2] Stock Performance - Recently, Lushan New Materials' stock price has shown a downward trend, closing at 24.73 yuan on February 26, 2026, with a single-day decline of 1.94% and a cumulative decline of 7.55% over the past five days [3] - On February 25, 2026, the net outflow of main funds was 3.4663 million yuan, with continued net outflow in the morning of February 26; the turnover rate was high, reaching 6.02% on February 25, indicating active market trading but significant capital outflow pressure [3] Financial Report Analysis - Lushan New Materials' 2025 performance forecast indicates a net profit attributable to shareholders of -74 million to -37 million yuan, a shift from profit to loss, primarily due to a provision for asset impairment losses of 40 million to 60 million yuan in the photovoltaic film business [4] - The third quarter report for 2025 has already reflected pressure, with revenue of 1.167 billion yuan (a year-on-year decrease of 27.33%) and a non-recurring net profit of -5.368 million yuan; the single-quarter loss in the third quarter expanded, with a year-on-year decline in net profit attributable to shareholders of 2625.76% [4] - Industry overcapacity and price wars are the main reasons for the performance pressure [4] Institutional Views - Institutional attention on Lushan New Materials is relatively low, with current ratings primarily neutral [5] - One institution set a comprehensive target price of 31.60 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 49.06% from the current stock price; it forecasts a net profit of 30 million yuan for 2025 (a year-on-year increase of 77.14%) and a significant increase of 256.67% to 107 million yuan for 2026, mainly based on breakthroughs in POE film technology and expectations of industry recovery [5]

当被问及政府是否愿意对华商品加征高额新关税时，他回答说："我们不打算将关税提高到目前的水平 以上。我们计划严格遵守与中方达成的协议。" 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 【文/观察者网 阮佳琪】 上周美国最高法院裁定所谓"解放日"对等关税越权违法后，总统特朗普最初设定的全球商品加税10%已 于本周二（24日）生效。 据路透社25日报道，当地时间周三，美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔表示，美国计划将部分国家的关税税 率从刚实施的10%上调至15%及以上，但不对中国加征新关税。 当天在福克斯商业频道的节目上，格里尔解释称，特朗普计划于未来几周访华，因此政府无意提高对华 商品关税至现有水平以上。 闻网视频截图 福克斯新 不过，格里尔仍提到，特朗普政府正以新关税取代被最高法院否决的紧急关税，除了依据《1974年贸易 法》第122条实施的临时关税10%外，根据该法第301条针对所谓"不公平贸易行为"启动新的贸易调查， 将是此番关税替代安排的核心。 他声称，调查目标将指向那些被美方指责"存在产能过剩、供应链使用强迫劳动、歧视美国科技企业， 或对大米、海鲜及其他商品提供补贴"的国家。 随后，格里尔 ...

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry in China is facing an oversupply risk for 15 products, including epoxy propylene and nylon 66, due to rapid capacity expansion and weak downstream demand [2] Group 1: Industry Overview - The "List of Products Facing Oversupply Risks in the Petrochemical Industry (2025 Edition)" identifies 15 products at risk, including epoxy propylene, PVC, and nylon 66 [2] - The warning is attributed to the concentration of new projects launched since the 13th Five-Year Plan, rapid expansion of low-end capacity, and sluggish demand in traditional sectors like real estate and home appliances [2] Group 2: Nylon 66 Insights - By the end of 2025, domestic nylon 66 capacity is expected to approach 1.5 million tons per year, while the apparent consumption in 2024 is only 750,000 to 800,000 tons, leading to a utilization rate below 60% [4] - The new nylon 66 project by Xinhecheng, with an investment of 10 billion, has garnered significant attention, indicating potential growth in high-end applications [4] Group 3: BDO Market Dynamics - BDO is facing challenges due to the rapid expansion of PBAT capacity, which exceeds downstream demand growth, resulting in low utilization rates and continuous price declines [5] - BDO's applications are diverse, including as a key raw material in THF-PTMEG, which is used in various products like polyurethane and engineering plastics [5] - The overall BDO capacity is projected to reach 5.461 million tons per year by the end of 2025, with an annual output of 3.08 million tons, but the industry utilization rate is only around 56% [6] Group 4: Regulatory and Competitive Landscape - The EU will impose temporary anti-dumping duties on BDO starting February 6, 2026, with rates for Chinese companies ranging from 105.6% to 113.7%, affecting both bio-based and fossil-based BDO [7] - Domestic export tax rebate adjustments for BDO, which is part of the photovoltaic industry chain, will further squeeze profit margins for companies [7] Group 5: International Developments - BASF is increasing BDO production in Germany to provide stable supply amid anti-dumping litigation, focusing on environmentally friendly products [8] - Qore, a joint venture by Cargill, has launched the world's largest bio-based BDO production facility, aiming for an annual output of 66,000 tons [9] Group 6: Domestic Company Initiatives - Major domestic players like Kingfa Technology and Yuanli Chemical Group are expanding their bio-based BDO capacities, with Kingfa planning an integrated project with an investment of 7.89 billion yuan [10] - The demand for bio-based BDO is expected to rise with new projects, such as the 60,000-ton bio-based polyester project by Zhuhai Kingfa [11]

希勒2013年的回答很反常识。 他说最大的风险是中国没有经历过衰退、萧条和危机。他不是在嘲笑中国，而是在提醒"缺课"。 更狠的是后半句：一旦出现危机，就很难有正确判断和应对。 而这句话传回国内，很多网友不买账。 【阅读须知】：本文内容所有信息和数据，均为作者查阅官方信息和网络已知数据整合解 析，旨在让读者更清晰了解相应信息，如有数据错误或观点有误，请文明评论，作者积极改 正！ （创作不易，一篇文章需要作者查阅多方资料，整合分析、总结，望大家理解。） 很多人问，中国经济最大的风险是什么？我反而想先问一句，我们最怕的，到底是风险本身，还是对风 险的误判？ 一个中国人问诺贝尔经济学奖得主罗伯特·希勒，中国经济最大风险是什么？ 理由也很中国。5000年啥没见过，王朝更替、兵荒马乱、灾荒动荡，哪个不是危机。 希勒讲的是经济周期里的危机；我们反驳的，是政治秩序里的危机。听上去都叫危机，本质却不是一回 事。 中国历史上确实反复经历衰退、萧条甚至崩盘。 但那多是政治结构、生产资料分配与治理崩坏带来的系统性灾难。它不是现代意义上"市场经济—信用 扩张—资产泡沫—需求坍塌—金融连锁"的那套。 甚至可以说，我们过去几千年最核心的恐 ...

Company Fundamentals - The company is expected to incur a net loss of 440 million to 520 million yuan in 2025, primarily due to an imbalance in supply and demand in the photovoltaic industry and intense price competition, leading to a decrease in film sales and low gross margins [1] - The gross margin for the third quarter of 2025 was -6.67%, reflecting ongoing pressure on the main business profitability [1] Business Development - The company is accelerating its layout in new businesses such as automotive materials, having secured a designated supply of PDLC dimming film for an automotive glass manufacturer in January 2026. However, the related R&D and market investments are expected to increase losses in the short term [2] Industry and Risk Analysis - The photovoltaic industry is still in a deep adjustment period, with significant overcapacity issues. Industry observations suggest that inventory may bottom out by mid-2026, and the competitive landscape in the film segment will require accelerated capacity clearance for optimization [3] Convertible Bond Termination - On February 11, 2026, the company announced that the "Haiyou Convertible Bond" may trigger redemption clauses, which could exert short-term pressure on the stock price if executed [4] Financial Situation - On February 4, a net inflow of 139 million yuan from main funds drove the stock price up by 8.04%. However, on February 13, the overall photovoltaic equipment sector fell by 3.59%, leading to increased fund outflows and adjustments in individual stocks [5] - The company's short-term performance is influenced by industry cycles and investments in new businesses, but the long-term transformation direction is clear [5]