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建信期货集运指数日报-20260205
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-02-05 01:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The peak stage of pre - Spring Festival shipping demand has passed, and spot freight rates will enter a downward channel. After the Spring Festival, the shipping market is likely to continue its off - season performance, and the high shipping capacity in March limits the potential for rebound. However, geopolitical conflicts may provide trading hotspots. It is recommended to short - allocate the 04 contract on rallies and go long on the 08 contract on dips [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The peak of pre - Spring Festival shipping demand has passed. Spot freight rates will decline. For example, the pre - Spring Festival quote for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route by Maersk was around $2,100 - 2,170 per large container, dropping to $2,000 after the festival. The OCEAN Alliance's February quote is in the range of $2,293 - 2,430, and the Premier Alliance's February quote is around $2,035, with a March opening quote of $2,535. Considering the slow post - Spring Festival resumption of work and the upcoming traditional off - season in April, it is difficult to maintain high prices. It is recommended to short - allocate the 04 contract on rallies and go long on the 08 contract on dips [8] 3.2行业要闻 - From January 26th to 30th, the Chinese export container shipping market continued to adjust. The overall demand for long - haul routes was weak, and market freight rates declined, dragging down the comprehensive index. On January 30th, the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index was 1,316.75 points, a 9.7% decrease from the previous period. - In the European route, the eurozone's January composite PMI was 51.5, lower than market expectations. Economic growth momentum showed marginal slowdown. On January 30th, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1,418/TEU, a 11.1% decrease from the previous period. - In the Mediterranean route, the market situation was similar to that of the European route, and the spot booking price continued to decline. On January 30th, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2,424/TEU, a 12.0% decrease from the previous period. - In the North American route, the US consumer confidence index in January dropped to 84.5, the lowest since May 2014. The spot booking price continued to adjust. On January 30th, the market freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports were $1,867/FEU and $2,605/FEU respectively, with decreases of 10.4% and 10.0% from the previous period. - On January 14th, the US announced the second phase of the Gaza cease - fire plan, focusing on demilitarization, technocratic governance, and post - war reconstruction. However, there are still issues and differences between Netanyahu and Trump regarding this plan. - The Houthi armed forces in Yemen warned that if Saudi Arabia takes military action, it will face a strong response. The Yemeni President's Leadership Council announced the establishment of a Supreme Military Council [9][10] 3.3数据概览 3.3.1集运现货价格 - On February 2, 2026, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 1,792.14 points, a 3.6% decrease from January 26th. The SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1,101.4 points, a 14.9% decrease from January 26th [12] 3.3.2集运指数(欧线)期货行情 - The report provides the trading data of container shipping futures contracts on February 4th, including the pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest for contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc. [6] 3.3.3航运相关数据走势图 - The report includes various shipping - related data charts, such as the container ship capacity in Europe, the global container ship order backlog, the Shanghai - European basic port freight rate, and the Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rate [18][23]