1. Report Information - Report Name: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: April 1, 2026 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - The current shipping market is in the off - season, with supply of shipping capacity in April at a historically high level. The potential blockade risk in the Mandatory Straits has limited impact on European routes, and as the situation in the Hormuz Strait calms down, the market may return to the fundamental logic of oversupply. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities for near - term off - season contracts [7] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The April spot quotes are stable, but some airlines are cutting prices to attract cargo. Maersk's opening price for the first week of April is $2300 per large container, and the PA Alliance quotes $2500 per large container, while offline prices have dropped to $1800 - $1900, indicating weak demand [7] - **Operation Suggestion**: Given the off - season and high supply, and the limited impact of the Mandatory Straits risk, focus on short - selling opportunities for near - term off - season contracts [7] 4.2 Industry News - **Overall Market**: Due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions, the China export container shipping market is facing challenges. Most long - distance route freight rates have risen this week, driving up the comprehensive index. On March 27, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index was 1826.77 points, up 7.0% from the previous period [8] - **European Routes**: The preliminary manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4, better than expected. However, the eurozone's composite PMI in March dropped to 50.5, the lowest since May last year. On March 27, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European base ports was $1703/TEU, up 4.1% from the previous period [8] - **Mediterranean Routes**: The supply - demand fundamentals are weaker than those of European routes, and the market freight rate has slightly declined. On March 27, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean base ports was $2764/TEU, down 0.7% from the previous period [8] - **North American Routes**: The preliminary composite PMI in the US in March dropped to 51.4, hitting an 11 - month low. The freight rate from Shanghai Port to the US West and East base ports on March 27 was $2352/FEU and $3264/FEU respectively, up 14.5% and 11.7% from the previous period [8][9] - **Persian Gulf Routes**: The military conflict in the Middle East continues, and the freight rate continues to rise. On March 27, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Persian Gulf base ports was $3728/TEU, up 12.2% from the previous period [9] - **Geopolitical News**: Trump plans to end the military action against Iran through diplomatic means; China has three ships passing through the Hormuz Strait; Iran has various statements and actions regarding the war and the Hormuz Strait, and has proposed a bill to charge ships passing through the Hormuz Strait [9] 4.3 Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: From March 23 to 30, 2026, the SCFIS for European routes increased by 3.5% (from 1693.26 to 1752.54), and the SCFIS for US West routes increased by 23.4% (from 1024.11 to 1263.4) [11] - **Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market**: The report provides data on the trading of multiple contracts such as EC2604 - EC2612 on March 31, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6] - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: The report includes multiple charts related to shipping data, such as container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe base port freight rates, etc. [18][22]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information available 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 30, 2026, most domestic futures main contracts rose. The shipping index for European routes increased by over 6%, while caustic soda dropped by over 4%. The market is significantly influenced by the tense situation in the Middle East, with expectations of inflation rising and potential impacts on various commodity prices. Different commodities have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends [6][7][11] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of the close on March 30, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. The shipping index for European routes increased by over 6%, and lithium carbonate, Shanghai tin, fuel oil, and pure benzene rose by over 4%. In terms of declines, caustic soda dropped by over 4%, and synthetic rubber and industrial silicon fell by over 2%. In the stock index futures market, the CSI 300 index futures (IF) main contract fell 0.33%, while the CSI 500 index futures (IC) main contract rose 0.23%. In the bond futures market, all varieties rose. In terms of capital flow, as of 15:23 on March 30, funds flowed into the Shanghai gold 2606 and Shanghai silver 2606 contracts, and flowed out of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 2606 and CSI 2606 contracts [6][7] 3.2 Market Analysis of Specific Commodities 3.2.1 Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and closed high, turning positive at the end. Tensions in the Middle East may push up oil prices and reignite inflation, with some Fed officials sending hawkish signals. Global copper smelting capacity is shrinking, and the utilization rate of recycled copper smelting capacity has declined. In March, the expected output of electrolytic copper in China increased, but there are maintenance plans in the second quarter, which will lead to a decline in output. Currently, overseas copper inventories are high, and imports may increase. Copper demand has increased, but terminal consumption in the automotive and new - energy vehicle sectors has declined. In the long - term, the supply - tight situation supports copper prices [9][11] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened and closed high, rising by over 4% during the day. In March, the start - up rate decreased, and in February, imports increased year - on - year. After the Spring Festival, upstream production gradually increased, but there is a high probability of domestic lithium mine复产, which is a potential negative factor. In April, the production of lithium batteries increased, but the inventory of lithium carbonate showed a trend of accumulation, and downstream demand growth may slow down. The rise in the futures price is mainly due to supply - side disruptions, and the overall domestic supply of lithium mines still needs to be monitored for the domestic复产 rhythm. The situation in the Middle East may affect the price of lithium carbonate [12] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories increased more than expected. The market focuses on the situation in the Middle East. Iran's oil production and exports are large, and the near - halt of the Strait of Hormuz has led to production cuts in Middle Eastern oil - producing countries. Although IEA has released strategic oil reserves, the delivery speed is slow. The U.S. has relaxed some sanctions, and Iraq has reached an agreement to resume oil exports. However, the situation in the Middle East remains tense, and the risk of an oil price spike still exists [14] 3.2.4 Asphalt - Last week, the asphalt start - up rate decreased, and the planned production in April decreased significantly. After the Spring Festival, downstream construction rates mostly increased, and shipments increased, but they are still at a low level. The inventory rate of asphalt plants decreased slightly. The market is worried about a shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries due to the situation in the Middle East. It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the situation in the Middle East [15][16] 3.2.5 PP - As of the week of March 27, the downstream start - up rate of PP increased slightly, but it has not returned to the pre - holiday level. On March 28, the start - up rate of PP enterprises decreased, and the production ratio of standard products decreased. After the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories have decreased. The conflict in the Middle East still exists, and the risk of oil supply interruption has not been eliminated. The supply - demand pattern of PP has improved, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. It is expected that the price of PP will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream复产 and the Middle East situation [17] 3.2.6 Plastic - On March 28, the plastic start - up rate remained at around 80%. As of the week of March 27, the downstream start - up rate of PE increased, but it has not returned to the pre - holiday level. After the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventories have decreased. The conflict in the Middle East still exists, and the risk of oil supply interruption has not been eliminated. New production capacity has been put into operation in 2026, and the start - up rate has continued to decline recently. The supply - demand pattern of plastic has improved, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. It is expected that the price of plastic will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to downstream复产 and the Middle East situation [19] 3.2.7 PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region is stable. The start - up rate of PVC increased, and the downstream average start - up rate also increased, but the downstream is resistant to high prices. Some overseas device loads have decreased, and export prices have increased. Social inventories have increased slightly, and the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. PVC has the expectation of anti - involution, and the upstream raw material supply is tight. It is recommended to wait and see for now [20][21] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low, falling during the day. Domestic mine production resumed smoothly, but the output of clean coal decreased. Downstream coking enterprises and steel mills increased their inventories, and coke production increased. High - end coking coal has no market at the asking price, and market acceptance of high prices is low. The impact of the Middle East situation on coking coal has weakened, and it is expected that the price will gradually return to the fundamental logic [22] 3.2.9 Urea - The urea spot market was stable on the weekend, and the trading activity was acceptable. Factories have pending orders and no pressure to reduce prices. Internationally, urea is in short supply, while in China, supply is relatively abundant. After the end of agricultural demand, the downstream mainly depends on compound fertilizer factories. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer factories has increased, and the inventory of urea factories has decreased significantly. It is expected that urea will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [23]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The EC of the container shipping European line dropped 6.04%. The potential negotiation between the US and Iran and the consideration of a one - month cease - fire by the US led to a geopolitical cooling and a synchronous callback of EC. MSC's new weekly cabin in the 15th week had a large - container quote of $2300, a $300 decrease from the previous week. Its online quote for the first half of April was $2852, basically the same as that in late March. In April, cargo volume usually increases with the completion of resumption of work, but this year, the end of the rush - export of products like photovoltaic may bring pressure on cargo volume and freight rates. With the geopolitical conflict not cooling down, shipping companies tend to raise and maintain prices. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and the quotes of other shipping companies should be monitored [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - The latest transaction price, latest increase/decrease, trading volume, and other data of different EC contracts (such as EC2604, EC2606, etc.) are presented. For example, EC2604 had a latest transaction price of 1803 points, a latest increase of 3.00%, a trading volume of 27497 (with a 3062 increase from the previous period), and a net long - position of - 1007. The total trading volume was 42327, and the total open interest was 42377 [2] Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - The latest spot freight rate data for European routes are provided. The SCFIS index was 1693.26 points, with an 8.8% week - on - week increase; SCFI was $1636/TEU, with a 1.1% increase. The TCI (20GP) was $1866/TEU with no change, and TCI (40GP) was $3128/FEU with no change [4] Basis Spread - The basis spread of the container shipping European line futures main contract showed a certain trend. The basis spread on the previous trading day was - 109.74, and on the day before the previous trading day was - 205.64, with a change of 95.9 [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The European container shipping line has passed the first stage after the US - Iran conflict, with the main logic gradually returning to supply - demand pricing, though sentiment is still affected by geopolitical changes [1] - In April, cargo volume is expected to gradually increase as work resumes, but there may be cargo volume pressure due to the end of rush - exports of products like photovoltaic, along with potential downward pressure on freight rates [1] - With the geopolitical conflict not cooling down, shipping companies are more likely to raise and maintain prices, and the subsequent quotation of other shipping companies should be monitored [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - EC2604: Latest成交价 is 1944 points, with a latest涨跌幅 of - 0.64%,成交量 is 27497 (a 3062 increase),持仓量单边 is 17770 (a 2145 decrease),多单持仓 is 10876,空单持仓 is 11883, and净多持仓 is - 1007 [2] - EC2606: Latest成交价 is 2422.3 points, with a latest涨跌幅 of 0.55%,成交量 is 11230 (a 2239 increase), and持仓量单边 is 13836 (a 245 increase) [2] - EC2608: Latest成交价 is 2377 points, with a latest涨跌幅 of - 0.97%,成交量 is 956 (a 401 increase), and持仓量单边 is 2814 (a 74 increase) [2] - EC2610: Latest成交价 is 1569.8 points, with a latest涨跌幅 of - 0.46%,成交量 is 2498 (a 502 increase), and持仓量单边 is 7521 (a 112 decrease) [2] - EC2612: Latest成交价 is 1758.7 points, with a latest涨跌幅 of 0.30%,成交量 is 146 (an 83 increase), and持仓量单边 is 436 (a 22 increase) [2] - Total成交量 is 42327, and total持仓量单边 is 42377, with a net long position of - 1007 [2] Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - SCFIS (weekly): The latest value is 1556.49 points, with a环比涨跌幅 of 0.7%, the previous value was 1545.46 points (a 5.6% increase), and the value before that was 1463.4 points (a - 7.0% decrease) [4] - SCFI ($/TEU, weekly): The latest value is $1636, with a环比涨跌幅 of 1.1%, the previous value was $1618 (an 11.4% increase), and the value before that was $1452 (a 2.3% increase) [4] - TCI (20GP, daily): The latest value is $1925, with a环比涨跌幅 of 0.0%, the previous value was $1925 (a 3.0% increase), and the value before that was $1869 (a - 5.3% decrease) [4] - TCI (40GP, daily): The latest value is $3241, with a环比涨跌幅 of 0.0%, the previous value was $3241 (a 3.5% increase), and the value before that was $3133 (a - 4.1% decrease) [4] Basis Spread - The previous trading day's basis was - 387.51 points, and the day before that was - 358.51 points, with a环比变化 of - 29 points [6]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: March 17, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The spot price for April has been significantly raised, but the cargo volume remains light, and shipping companies may need to lower prices to attract cargo. The supply of shipping capacity in March and April is at a high level compared to the same period in history. Although the Red Sea resumption plan has slowed down, it is difficult to change the fundamental pattern of oversupply of shipping capacity on the European line. Short - term geopolitical conflicts have a greater impact on the far - month sentiment and futures market, which may lead to a phased strengthening of the index, but it is also prone to significant corrections. It is recommended to short the off - season contract 04 when the spot and futures prices converge near the end of March, and go long on the peak - season contracts 07 and 08 at low prices [7]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The April spot price has been significantly raised. For example, the quotation range for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in the second half of March is 2360 - 3230 US dollars per big container, with a median of about 2750 US dollars. The quoted prices for April from some shipping companies range from 3793 to 4855 US dollars, with a median of 4030 - 4040 US dollars. However, the cargo volume is still light, and it may be necessary to lower prices to attract cargo later [7]. - **Fundamentals**: After the Spring Festival, it is still the off - season for transportation. Short - term tariff issues are unlikely to trigger exporters to rush for shipments, and the demand for photovoltaic exports is limited. The shipping capacity supply in March and April is at a high level compared to the same period in history. Although the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz does not affect the European line, the Red Sea resumption plan has slowed down due to the escalating Middle East situation, which can continue to absorb the shipping capacity pressure, but it is difficult to change the oversupply situation of the European line [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Pay attention to the opportunity to short the off - season contract 04 when the spot and futures prices converge near the end of March, and go long on the peak - season contracts 07 and 08 at low prices [7]. 3.2 Industry News - **Comprehensive Index**: Affected by the continuous geopolitical tension, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index continued to rise. On March 13, it was 1710.35 points, a 14.9% increase from the previous period [8]. - **European Routes**: Due to the impact of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Russia - Ukraine, the European economy faces increased uncertainty. On March 13, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was 1618 US dollars/TEU, a 11.4% increase from the previous period; the freight rate to Mediterranean basic ports was 2666 US dollars/TEU, a 13.0% increase from the previous period [8]. - **North American Routes**: The North American market has weak transportation demand and declining cargo volume, but the spot market booking price continues to rise. On March 13, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the basic ports of the US West and East were 2249 US dollars/FEU and 3111 US dollars/FEU respectively, with increases of 15.9% and 14.5% from the previous period [9]. - **Persian Gulf Routes**: Due to the continuous escalation of regional geopolitical tensions, some shipping companies are forced to take detour and transshipment strategies, resulting in a significant drop in cargo volume and large fluctuations in freight rates. On March 13, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Persian Gulf basic ports was 3220 US dollars/TEU, a 40.8% increase from the previous period [9]. - **Australia and New Zealand Routes**: The market supply and demand are generally stable, but the growth momentum is insufficient. The average cabin utilization rate of Shanghai Port is about 95%, and the spot booking price has declined. On March 13, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Australia and New Zealand basic ports was 624 US dollars/TEU, a 6.7% decrease from the previous period [9]. - **South American Routes**: The transportation supply - demand relationship is generally balanced. The cargo volume in the transportation market has declined, and the freight rate has decreased slightly after rising in the previous period. On March 13, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to South American basic ports was 2559 US dollars/TEU, a 2.3% decrease from the previous period [9]. - **Japanese Routes**: The transportation demand is basically stable, and the market freight rate remains stable. On March 13, the freight rate index for the China - Japan route was 957.78 points [9]. - **Geopolitical News**: Trump said that Iran is willing to negotiate a cease - fire, but the current conditions are "not good enough", so the US will not reach a cease - fire agreement with Iran for the time being. Iran's Foreign Minister said that Iran will continue to defend until Trump realizes it is an "unwinnable illegal war". Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps carried out attacks on US and Israeli targets. The Strait of Hormuz is open to all except US and its allies' ships. The US plans to form a "convoy alliance" in the Strait of Hormuz, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said he will continue to act against Iran [9]. - **Fuel Surcharge News**: Due to the sharp rise in fuel prices, CMA CGM will implement an emergency fuel surcharge (EFS) from March 16, 2026. Mediterranean Shipping has also announced emergency fuel surcharges for different routes and cargo types [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: On March 16, 2026, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 1556.49 points, a 0.7% increase from March 9; the SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1109.11 points, a 1.1% decrease from March 9 [11]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market**: The report provides data on the trading of container shipping futures contracts on March 16, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest for each contract [6]. - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: The report presents multiple charts, including the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index, the trend of the main and secondary main contracts of container shipping futures on the European line, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and freight rates from Shanghai to European basic ports and Rotterdam [11][16][17][19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the container shipping industry is "Bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical factors are currently the main drivers of market sentiment in the container shipping industry. The Red Sea route remains blocked, and the influence of fundamental factors is relatively weak. Due to the volatility of geopolitical situations, the container shipping market faces significant risks, and short - term trading is recommended with risk control [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Market Review** - On Friday, the container shipping route to Europe declined [1] **Important Information** - Trump called on multiple countries to send warships to escort in the Strait of Hormuz. France refused, Japan will decide independently, South Korea will carefully consider, and the UK is discussing options [1] - On March 15, the Israeli Defense Forces stated that military operations against Iran will continue for at least three more weeks [1] - On the afternoon of March 15, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran announced the "True Promise - 4" 54th round of military operations [1] - Trump said on the 14th that Iran is willing to negotiate a cease - fire, but the current conditions are not good enough, so the US will not reach a cease - fire agreement for now [1] **Market Logic** - On March 9, SIFIS closed at 1545.46, up 5.6% from the previous period [1] - The UNCTAD report on the 10th pointed out that the tense situation in the Middle East has severely disrupted shipping activities in the Strait of Hormuz, which may have a chain - reaction on global energy supply, shipping costs, and food prices, and increase the economic pressure on developing countries. The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about a quarter of global maritime oil trade. After the escalation of the conflict, the number of ships passing through the strait has significantly decreased, with a one - day drop of about 97%. Shipping disruptions have quickly affected the energy market [1] **Trading Strategy** - In the short term, geopolitical factors continue to dominate market sentiment. The Red Sea route remains blocked, and the influence of fundamentals is weak. Due to the volatility of geopolitical situations, the container shipping market has high volatility risks. Short - term operations are recommended, and risk control should be emphasized [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, the current major contradiction lies in the external market. The escalation of the US - Iran conflict has reignited inflation concerns. Although the panic has been released, the stock index will gradually return to the domestic fundamentals, but geopolitical uncertainties remain. During the performance disclosure period, market sentiment is expected to be cautious. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy, and be more optimistic about IF and IC with stronger profit certainty and more relevance to new - quality productivity [12]. - For treasury bonds, inflation concerns have suppressed the bond market. The situation in the Middle East has not eased, and the rise in oil prices has led to inflation concerns. The market is affected by factors such as export data and regulatory policies. It is recommended to pay attention to the steepening strategy, and there may be a small - scale rebound in the bond market next week [36][51][93]. - For shipping indices, the shipping market is affected by the Middle East situation. Although the supply of container shipping capacity is high, the slowdown of the Red Sea re - navigation plan can relieve the pressure. The short - term geopolitical conflict may cause the index to strengthen, but it may also experience a significant correction. It is advisable to short the off - season contracts near the delivery period and go long on the peak - season contracts [111]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Stock Index Market Review - At the beginning of the year, the A - share market had a "good start" due to factors such as the appreciation of the RMB and the rise of the Hong Kong stock market. However, regulatory measures to cool down the market led to a weakening of market sentiment. Subsequently, factors such as the nomination of the next Fed chairman, the US - Iran conflict, and the two sessions affected the market. From March 9th to 13th, the A - share market showed a shrinking and consolidating pattern, with different performances among major indices [7][8][9]. - The current major contradiction is the external market. The US - Iran conflict has escalated, and inflation concerns have resurfaced. Domestically, there are no unexpected policies from the two sessions. The trading volume in the two markets has shrunk, and the stock index will gradually return to the domestic fundamentals. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy, and be more optimistic about IF and IC during the performance disclosure period [12]. 成交持仓分析 - This week, the trading volume of stock index futures has shrunk. The average daily trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM are 105,300, 44,500, 152,200, and 202,100 lots respectively, with changes of - 23,200, - 16,000, - 38,900, and - 29,800 lots compared with last week. - The positions of stock index futures have generally decreased. The average daily positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM are 274,000, 106,700, 296,300, and 377,400 lots respectively, with changes of - 8,300, - 4,400, - 13,400, and - 8,700 lots compared with last week [13]. 基差、跨期价差及跨品种价差分析 - **基差**: This week, the basis has narrowed. The basis of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are - 11.14, 0.15, - 26.0, and - 27.29 points respectively, with a narrowing of 3.30, 2.85, 11.73, and 9.77 points compared with last week. The annualized basis rates of the corresponding contracts are - 12.27%, 0.27%, - 16.23%, and - 17.09% respectively [18]. - **跨期价差**: As of March 13th, the spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are all negative. The spreads of IF and IH have narrowed, while those of IC and IM have widened. The spreads between the current - quarter and current - month contracts are also negative, with different changes in each variety [20][21]. - **跨品种价差**: The performance of large - cap stocks is relatively better, especially the CSI 300 index. The ratios of CSI 300/SSE 50, CSI 1000/CSI 500, CSI 300/CSI 1000, and SSE 50/CSI 1000 are at different historical percentile levels, with corresponding changes [24]. 行业板块概况 - **CSI 300 and CSI 500 sub - industry trends**: In the CSI 300, the utility, energy, and industrial sectors led the rise, while the materials, real estate, and pharmaceutical sectors led the decline. In the CSI 500, the utility, consumer, and pharmaceutical sectors led the rise, while the raw materials, information, and optional sectors led the decline [27]. - **First - level industry gains and losses**: The coal, power equipment, and building decoration sectors led the rise, while the national defense and military industry, petroleum and petrochemical, and comprehensive sectors led the decline [29]. 估值比较 As of March 13th, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 14.2607, 11.5251, 37.6349, and 50.5938 times respectively, and are at the 86.38%, 80.09%, 87.98%, and 83.62% percentile levels in the past ten years [31]. Treasury Bonds This Week's Market Review - **Treasury bond futures market**: Inflation concerns have suppressed the bond market. The situation in the Middle East has not eased, and the rise in oil prices has led to inflation concerns. The export data has exceeded expectations, and regulatory policies have also affected the market. The performance of futures is weaker than that of spot bonds, and there is no positive arbitrage space for each contract. It is recommended to pay attention to the steepening strategy [36][39][51]. - **Bond spot market**: This week, most of the spot yields of treasury bonds have increased. The yields of ultra - long - term bonds have risen significantly. The yields of US treasury bonds have also increased across the board [65]. - **Funding situation**: At the beginning of the month, the funding pressure is not large, and the central bank has mainly carried out net repurchases. As the tax period approaches, the funding situation has tightened marginally [73][78]. - **Interest rate derivatives**: This week, the yields of most swap varieties have declined, and the liquidity expectation is stable [85]. Market Analysis - **Recent market logic**: The PMI in February was affected by the Spring Festival and was weaker than expected. However, the high - frequency economic indicators after the Spring Festival showed a fast resumption of production, and the overseas export demand was still strong. The implementation of the "Shanghai Seven Measures" may boost the real estate market in the "Golden March" season. The short - term situation in the US - Iran is unclear, which has increased inflation expectations and brought liquidity shocks. It is necessary to pay attention to the upcoming economic data [88]. - **This week's fundamental situation**: The inflation and import - export data in February and January - February have exceeded expectations, partly due to the Spring Festival misalignment. The inflation has improved significantly, and the PPI may turn positive. The export has shown strong resilience, and it is expected to maintain a strong performance this year [89][90]. - **Next week's bond market outlook**: The self - regulatory management of inter - bank deposits may release a batch of allocation demand. The tax - period disturbance and the release of January - February economic data next week may be short - term negative factors, and there may be a small - scale rebound [93]. Next Week's Open - Market Maturities and Important Economic Calendar Next week, important economic data such as China's January - February economic data and the Fed's interest - rate decision will be released, and the tax - filing deadline in March will also be reached [95]. Shipping Index Market Review The shipping index has fluctuated significantly due to the rapid change in the Middle East situation. The index adjusted at the beginning of the week but then recovered. The container shipping futures on the European route have all risen this week, with the largest increases in the near - month contracts of May and June [96]. 集运市场情况 - **Spot market**: The transportation demand on the European route has been flat and not significantly affected by the Middle East situation, but the supply - chain shock has pushed up the freight rate. The quotes for April have been significantly increased, but the cargo volume is still light [103]. - **Supply - demand fundamentals of container shipping**: In terms of supply, the container shipping capacity in Europe in March is still significantly higher than the same period in previous years, and the potential capacity is also increasing. The actual capacity has decreased slightly in March but will increase in April. The Red Sea re - navigation plan has been postponed, which can relieve the pressure on the European route. In terms of demand, the overseas demand is still strong, but the inflation in Europe may lead to a weakening of macro - demand [107][108]. Market Outlook The container shipping market is still in the off - season after the Spring Festival. Although the Red Sea re - navigation plan has been postponed, the supply of container shipping capacity is still high. The short - term geopolitical conflict may cause the index to strengthen, but it may also experience a significant correction. It is advisable to short the off - season contracts near the delivery period and go long on the peak - season contracts [111].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: March 11, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Investment Rating - Not provided 3. Core View - The Middle East situation has changed, causing the container shipping index to weaken significantly. The supply - demand fundamentals show that it is still the off - season after the Spring Festival. Short - term tariff issues are unlikely to trigger exporters to rush shipments, and the demand for photovoltaic exports is limited. The shipping capacity supply in March and April is still at a high level in the same period of history. Although the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz does not affect the European routes, the Red Sea resumption plan has slowed down, which can continue to digest the shipping capacity pressure. The current off - season price increase may be more for price stabilization and difficult to be actually implemented. It is recommended to pay attention to the actual cargo collection situation later. The suspension of the Middle East route may cause the shipping capacity supply to overflow to other routes, but the impact is limited. The main factor is that the suspension of the Red Sea resumption plan can digest the excess shipping capacity, but it is difficult to change the fundamental pattern of oversupply of European route shipping capacity. Short - term geopolitical conflicts have a greater impact on the sentiment of far - month contracts and the futures market, which may lead to a phased strengthening of the index, but it is also prone to a sharp correction when the event eases and the sentiment cools down. Attention should be paid to the convergence of spot and futures prices near the delivery period in the second half of March, and there are opportunities to short - allocate the off - season contracts 04 and 06 [7]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: The Middle East situation has changed, and the container shipping index has weakened significantly. The supply - demand fundamentals are in the off - season, with limited short - term demand and high shipping capacity supply. The Red Sea resumption plan has slowed down, which can digest some shipping capacity pressure. The off - season price increase may be for price stabilization [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Pay attention to the actual cargo collection situation. The suspension of the Middle East route has a limited impact. The main factor is the suspension of the Red Sea resumption plan. Short - term geopolitical conflicts may cause the index to strengthen in the short term but are also prone to sharp corrections. Pay attention to the convergence of spot and futures prices near the delivery period in the second half of March, and short - allocate the off - season contracts 04 and 06 [7]. 4.2 Industry News - **Overall Market**: The China export container shipping market is affected by the sharp escalation of the geopolitical situation, with increased fluctuations in freight rates and a rising comprehensive index. On March 6, the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index was 1489.19 points, a 11.7% increase from the previous period [8]. - **European Routes**: The eurozone's January unemployment rate dropped slightly to 6.1%, indicating stable economic growth. However, there are many uncertainties in the future. The transportation market of the Asia - Europe route is basically stable, with flat demand and a slight increase in freight rates. On March 6, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was 1452 US dollars/TEU, a 2.3% increase from the previous period [8][9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation is basically the same as that of European routes, with the spot market booking price continuing to rise. On March 6, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was 2360 US dollars/TEU, a 2.4% increase from the previous period [9]. - **North American Routes**: The US February ADP employment increased by 63,000, better than expected, and the employment market showed signs of stabilization. However, military actions in the Middle East may increase inflation pressure and slow down economic growth. The transportation demand is weak, and the freight rate continues to rise. On March 6, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports were 1940 US dollars/FEU and 2717 US dollars/FEU respectively, with increases of 4.5% and 1.0% from the previous period [9]. - **Other News**: Trump said the war with Iran may end soon. The number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz is increasing. G7 finance ministers discussed how to deal with the soaring oil prices but have not decided to release strategic oil reserves. The US Supreme Court ruled that some tariffs are illegal, and China urges the US to cancel relevant tariffs [9]. 4.3 Data Overview 4.3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - **European Routes**: On March 9, 2026, the SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) was 1545.46 points, an 82.06 - point increase (5.6%) from March 2 [11]. - **US West Routes**: On March 9, 2026, the SCFIS for US West routes (basic ports) was 1121.22 points, a 76.14 - point increase (7.3%) from March 2 [11]. 4.3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market - The trading data of container shipping European line futures on March 10 shows that different contracts have different price changes, trading volumes, and position changes [6]. 4.3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, the trend of container shipping European line futures contracts, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai - European basic port freight rates [11][16][17][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - As of the afternoon close on March 10, 2026, the freight futures price of container shipping on the European route dropped by 13.92%, with the main contract at 1848.9 points and a daily reduction of 3,397 lots. The core reason is that there are signs of easing in the US-Iran war, the decline in crude oil has cooled the market sentiment, and the market has followed the decline in crude oil, squeezing out the current "premium" in the futures price and waiting for the guidance of the spot price [1]. - After the futures price fell today, the main 04 contract has squeezed out most of the premium. It is expected that the subsequent price will follow the spot freight situation, and the overall volatility will gradually decrease. It is advisable to wait for the market sentiment to cool further and then focus on the long - order layout opportunities for the peak - season contracts, while being vigilant against the recurrence of geopolitical sentiment and the possible recession after a sharp rise in oil prices [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Driving Analysis 1: Geopolitical Tension Eases and the European Route and Crude Oil Decline in Tandem - Previously, due to the de facto "shutdown" of the Strait of Hormuz and the continuous jump in VLCC freight rates, oil and gas facilities in multiple Middle Eastern countries were affected, and crude oil prices rose unilaterally. The market panic reached its peak yesterday, with the intraday maximum increase in external oil prices approaching 30%. Subsequently, President Trump said in an interview that the US military action against Iran would end "soon", and G7 + IEA will hold a meeting on March 10 to discuss whether to release oil reserves. The expectation of geopolitical easing has increased significantly, the market panic has cooled significantly, and international oil prices have plunged [3]. - Historically, the correlation between container shipping futures on the European route and crude oil has been low because fuel costs account for a relatively small proportion of long - distance shipping costs, and the core pricing of freight depends on supply - demand fundamentals. However, recently, due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the sentiment of the shutdown of oil transportation has spread to the global shipping supply chain. The market trading focus has shifted from fundamental supply - demand to channel safety, and the futures price trends of the European route and crude oil have shown a high degree of positive correlation in the short term. Therefore, after the sharp decline in crude oil overnight, the sentiment in the European route market has cooled synchronously, resulting in a significant gap - down opening of the market today [3]. Driving Analysis 2: Uncertainty in the Implementation of Freight Price Increases in the Off - season, and the Market Squeezes the "Premium" and Waits for Spot Guidance - As previously deduced, the impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on the near - term capacity of the European route is difficult to assess, and its transmission result may not necessarily be positive. The potential impact lies in the gradual transmission of capacity loss and port chaos, which will ultimately affect the peak - season shipping schedules from May to July. Affected by the suspension of the Middle East route, two large ships (21,000 tons and 19,000 tons respectively) have been transferred from the Middle East to the European route in late March, significantly increasing the short - term supply pressure [4]. - On the demand side, as downstream manufacturing enterprises gradually resume work and production, the recovery rhythm of cargo volume is relatively moderate, and there are no signs of over - booking and cargo rejection. From the market sentiment perspective, shipowners are expected to issue a new round of price increase letters soon. Currently, the validity period of MSC's price increase letters has been compressed from once a month to once every half - month or even once a week, and the impact of subsequent price increase letters on the market sentiment is expected to be dull [4]. - In the current relatively balanced off - season supply - demand situation, it is difficult to assess the implementation of freight price increases. On one hand, the Middle East war is undetermined, and the Strait of Hormuz has not reopened. It is only a short - term cooling of market sentiment, and there are still great uncertainties in future channel safety. On the other hand, the current "sufficient" supply and the "expected" future chaos create a tug - of - war, making it difficult to assess the subsequent freight trends. If the Strait of Hormuz/Mandeb Strait remains blocked, the probability of successful price increases by shipping companies will increase significantly. If the war eases and the channel safety risks are alleviated, shipowners may lower prices again to increase the loading rate in the off - season when the cargo volume has not fully recovered. Therefore, in the current off - season, as the market sentiment cools, the market has temporarily returned to rationality. After including the fuel surcharge (the current booking price converted to the index is about 1,700 - 1,800 points), the market has fallen sharply today, and the overall valuation has dropped from a significant premium to near par, waiting for the guidance of the actual freight price [4].

Report Overview - The report is a daily analysis of core futures varieties, released on March 9, 2026 [3] Market Performance Futures Market Summary - As of the close on March 9, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Contracts such as container shipping to Europe, SC crude oil, etc., hit the daily limit. Methanol rose over 11%, palm oil rose over 6%, and caustic soda and coking coal rose over 5%. In terms of declines, Shanghai tin and palladium fell over 2%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also showed varying degrees of decline [5][6] Capital Flows - As of 15:19 on March 9, funds flowed into contracts such as CSI 1000 2603 (5.594 billion), CSI 300 2603 (2.496 billion), and CSI 500 2603 (2.195 billion). Funds flowed out of contracts such as Shanghai gold 2604 (1.324 billion), coking coal 2605 (945 million), and 10 - year treasury bond 2606 (755 million) [6] Market Analysis Copper - The Shanghai copper market opened low and weakened during the day. It is expected that the production in March will increase by 52,800 tons month - on - month and 6.51% year - on - year, possibly reaching a record high. The recycled copper market is tight, and smelting is difficult. Downstream demand is increasing, but inventory is still accumulating. The copper price is affected by macro and financial factors and is expected to be weak in the short term [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and closed higher, showing a volatile and strong trend. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased. The开工 rate dropped, and the production in February decreased significantly. The inventory is being depleted, but the rate is narrowing. The terminal demand is affected by the Middle East conflict. The market is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [10] Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April. EIA data shows that US crude oil inventory increased more than expected. The Middle East situation is tense, with the Iran - Israel conflict and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. The price of crude oil is expected to be strong and volatile, and attention should be paid to the Middle East situation [11][12] Asphalt - The asphalt supply side: the开工 rate increased slightly last week, and the expected production in March increased. The downstream demand is gradually recovering. The price is expected to rise with the crude oil price, and attention should be paid to the shortage of domestic refinery raw materials [13][15] PP - The downstream开工 rate of PP increased, and the enterprise开工 rate decreased. The inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is affected by the Middle East situation, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. It is expected to be strong and volatile, and attention should be paid to the downstream resumption of production and the Middle East situation [16] Plastic - The plastic开工 rate is at a neutral - high level. The downstream开工 rate increased, and the inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is affected by the Middle East situation, and new production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected to be strong and volatile, and attention should be paid to the downstream resumption of production and the Middle East situation [17][18] PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price increased. The PVC开工 rate decreased slightly, and the downstream开工 rate increased. The export situation improved, but the inventory is still high. The price is expected to be strong and volatile due to policy and cost factors [19] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and hit the daily limit, then opened the limit in the afternoon. The mine开工 rate increased, but the downstream demand is weak. The price is affected by the geopolitical situation, and the follow - up trend depends on the duration of the conflict [21] Urea - Urea opened with a daily limit and then fell back. The spot market is affected by the Middle East conflict. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is in the peak season. The price is expected to be stable after the market sentiment calms down [22]