行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 27 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货8月26日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2510 | 1,356.3 | 1,345.0 | 1,318.9 | 1,327.8 | -37.4 | -2.76 | 2577 ...

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 22 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 二、行业要闻 8 月 11 日至 8 月 15 日，中国出口集装箱运输市场继续调整行情，多数航线市场 运价走低，拖累综合指数下跌。据国家统计局最新公布的数据显示，中国 7 月规 模以上工业增加值同比增速 5.7%，国民经济继续保持稳中有进发展态势，展现出 较强韧性和活力。8 月 15 日，上海航运交易所发布的上海出口集装箱综合运价指 数为 1460.19 点，较上期下跌 2.0%。欧洲航线，据欧洲经济研究中心公布的数据 显示，欧洲主要国家德国 8 月 ZEW 经济景气指数跌至 34.7，大幅低于市场预期， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy shows new resilience with the dual records of "trillion - kilowatt - hour electricity consumption and trillion - yuan trading volume". The policy combination is effective, and a positive cycle has been formed [1]. - The domestic stock market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + fund bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue, but investors need to adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation [2]. - Various commodities have different trends affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitics, and policies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Chief Comment - A - share market major indices are rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index up 12.51%, 14.45%, and 21.19% respectively this year. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets frequently exceeds 2 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance is at a historical high [1]. - In July, the total social electricity consumption reached 1.0226 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, doubling compared to a decade ago [1]. - China's foreign trade maintains a steady - to - improving trend, with the cumulative import and export growth rate rising month by month, achieving a 3.5% increase in the first seven months [1]. b. Key Varieties - **Equity Index**: The equity index shows differentiation. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose in 2025, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. The external risks are gradually easing. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices with more technology - growth components are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices with more dividend - blue - chip components are more defensive [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a volatile state. The market is waiting for signals from Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The long - term drivers of gold still provide support, and the overall trend of gold and silver may be volatile with the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts [3]. - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices continue to rise due to the decline in US crude oil inventories, strong oil demand, and the uncertainty of efforts to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The hurricane season in 2025 is relatively calm so far [3]. c. Main News Concerns - **International News**: The EU and the US announced details of a new trade agreement. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods, while the EU will cancel tariffs on US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products. The EU plans to purchase $750 billion of US liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear products and $40 billion of US AI chips by 2028 [5]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council agreed in principle to the "Development Plan for the Open and Innovative Development of the Whole Biopharmaceutical Industry Chain in the China (Jiangsu) Free Trade Pilot Zone" [6]. - **Industry News**: In July, the total social electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time globally, with a significant increase in the proportion of new energy [7]. d. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Equity Index**: The US three major indices fell. The domestic equity index shows differentiation, and the market trading volume is 2.46 trillion yuan. The market is in a favorable period, but investors need to pay attention to sector rotation [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded after reaching the bottom. The central bank's monetary policy is loose, which supports short - term treasury bond futures prices, but the stock - bond seesaw effect may suppress the bond market, and the cross - variety spread may widen [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices continue to rise due to factors such as inventory decline and demand. The hurricane has not affected key oil and gas infrastructure. The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased, and the OPEC's production increase situation needs to be monitored [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. Coastal methanol inventories increased significantly, and the short - term trend is mainly bullish [13]. - **Rubber**: The price of rubber is mainly supported by the supply side. The demand side is weak, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded. The market is mainly driven by supply and demand. The inventory is slowly being digested, and the terminal demand may pick up in mid - to - late August [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Similar to polyolefins, the market is driven by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the autumn stocking market and supply - cost changes [17]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are volatile, waiting for signals from Powell's speech. The long - term drivers of gold still support the price, and the overall trend may be volatile [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range due to factors such as low concentrate processing fees and stable downstream demand [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates has improved, and the smelting supply may recover [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. The supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and the demand is also expected to increase. The inventory situation is complex, and the price may have room to rise if the inventory is depleted [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by strong production. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the mid - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [22]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The futures of coking coal and coke are in a wide - range volatile state, with intense long - short competition [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal are weakly volatile at night. The US soybean production is expected to be good, but the reduction in planting area provides support. The domestic market is expected to be range - bound [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats rose at night. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil increased in August, but there are risks of a short - term decline due to factors such as US biodiesel news [26]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be volatile as the global sugar market is about to enter the inventory - accumulation stage. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventories, but import pressure may drag down prices [27]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell. The domestic cotton market supply is relatively tight, but the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish with limited upside space [28]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index is weakly volatile. The freight rate has been decreasing, and the short - term decline may slow down. The high - volume capacity supply may increase the downward pressure on freight rates during the off - season [29].

Group 1: General Information - Report title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: August 21, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] - Team: Macro Finance Team [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate has entered a downward channel, and the SCFIS has continued to decline this week. Although the price has stabilized, the demand side is unlikely to improve significantly due to the impact of tariffs, and the shipping capacity supply is at a relatively high level in the off - season. The freight rate this year may show the characteristic of an even more off - season. The short - term futures decline may narrow, but it may still show a downward trend in the long term. It is recommended to short the 10 - contract on rallies [8]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot market: The SCFIS has continued to decline to 2180.17 points this week. The August freight rate has been adjusted downward, and now the price has stabilized. For example, Maersk's 40GP container price for the fourth week of August on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route is about $300 lower than that of the third week, and the quotes of other shipping companies are concentrated in the range of $2500 - $2900. CMA CGM and ONE plan to increase the September freight rate slightly compared to the end of August [8]. - Market outlook: Due to the uncertainty of tariffs and the large actual damage to foreign trade, the demand side is difficult to improve significantly. The shipping capacity supply is at a relatively high level in the off - season. The 10 - contract is deeply at a discount, and the short - term futures decline may narrow. In the long term, it may still show a downward trend, and it is recommended to short the 10 - contract on rallies [8]. 2. Industry News - China's export container shipping market: From August 11 to August 15, the market continued to adjust, and the freight rates of most routes declined, dragging down the composite index. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on August 15 was 1460.19 points, a 2.0% decline from the previous period [9]. - European routes: Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index in August dropped to 34.7, far lower than market expectations, ending three consecutive months of recovery. The eurozone's overall data is consistent with Germany's. The freight demand lacks growth momentum, and the spot booking price continues to decline. On August 15, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1820/TEU, a 7.2% decline from the previous period [9]. - Mediterranean routes: The market situation is synchronized with European routes, and the freight rate continues to decline. On August 15, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2279/TEU, a 1.7% decline from the previous period [10]. - North American routes: The US PPI in July increased by 3.3% year - on - year, far exceeding market expectations. The US customs tariff revenue in July reached $28 billion, a 273% increase from the same period last year, but the fiscal deficit increased by 10% year - on - year. The market supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the shipping market continues to adjust. On August 15, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports were $1759/FEU and $2719/FEU respectively, down 3.5% and 2.6% from the previous period [10]. - International shipping security: The Houthi armed forces' threat to global shipping has escalated. They have attacked Israel's Ben - Gurion International Airport and announced "sanctions" on 64 shipping companies. If the conflict worsens significantly, it may boost futures prices in the short term [10]. - Israel - Yemen conflict: Israel has carried out multiple air strikes on Yemen's Hodeidah Port, which is crucial for Yemen's trade and humanitarian supplies [10]. 3. Data Overview - Spot freight rates: The SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) on August 18 was 2180.17 points, a 2.5% decline from August 11; the SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1106.29 points, a 2.2% increase from August 11 [12]. - Futures market: The trading data of eight container shipping European line futures contracts on August 20 are provided, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. - Shipping - related data: The report also includes charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [18][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the report presents a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metals, container shipping futures, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. Different markets show diverse trends and are influenced by a variety of factors such as policy, supply - demand relationships, and international events. For example, the stock index futures market is boosted by TMT sectors and policy expectations; the treasury bond futures market is under pressure due to multiple negative factors; the precious metals market fluctuates with geopolitical events; and various commodity markets are affected by their own supply - demand fundamentals [2][5][8] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share major indices rose significantly on Monday, with TMT sectors leading the gain. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased, and their basis was further repaired. Policy expectations and market sentiment are positive, but near the interim report performance period, profit improvement needs data verification. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 at the strike price of around 6600 with a mild bullish view [2][3][4] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and bond yields rose significantly. Affected by multiple negative factors such as the central bank's monetary policy report, the rising stock market, and tax - period capital convergence, the bond market sentiment weakened. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term and focus on market sentiment and key interest rate support levels [5][7] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fluctuated. The meeting of leaders from the US, Ukraine, and Europe brought hope for easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, increasing risk appetite. Gold prices closed slightly down, and silver prices closed slightly up. It is recommended to build a bullish spread strategy through gold call options when the price corrects, and maintain a low - buying strategy for silver or build a bullish spread option strategy [8][9][10] Container Shipping Futures (EC) - The spot prices of major shipping companies vary, and the container shipping index shows a mixed trend. The market is in a weak - shock state. Due to high container growth and weak European demand, it is expected that the price of the October off - season contract will be lower than last year. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 10 - contract [11][12] Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot price of copper is high, suppressing downstream procurement. The short - term trading focus is on interest - rate cut expectations. The supply of copper concentrate is slightly relaxed, and domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline slightly in August. The inventory shows a mixed trend. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 78000 - 79500 [13][15][16] - **Alumina**: The spot price shows a north - south differentiation. The production capacity is expected to increase slightly in August. The inventory of ports decreases, and the registered warehouse receipts increase. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely between 3000 - 3300 in the short term, and it is recommended to short at high prices in the medium term [17][18] - **Aluminum**: The spot price of aluminum decreases. The production capacity is stable, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreases, leading to an increase in inventory. Affected by the expansion of US import tariffs, the price is under pressure. It is expected that the price will be under high - level pressure in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 20000 - 21000 [20][21] - **Aluminum Alloy**: In the off - season, terminal consumption is weak, and the social inventory in major consumption areas is close to full. The supply is affected by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and the demand is suppressed by the off - season. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, and the main contract is expected to trade between 19600 - 20400 [22][23] - **Zinc**: The spot price of zinc decreases. The supply of zinc ore is in a loose cycle, and the production of refined zinc increases. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory shows a mixed trend. It is expected that the zinc price will fluctuate, and the main contract is expected to trade between 22000 - 23000 [23][24][26] - **Tin**: The spot price of tin decreases. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the import volume is low. The demand is weak after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush and the entry of the electronics off - season. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [27][28][29] - **Nickel**: The spot price of nickel increases slightly. The production of refined nickel is at a high level, and the demand is generally stable. The overseas inventory is high, and the domestic inventory increases slightly. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 118000 - 126000 [29][30][31] - **Stainless Steel**: The spot price of stainless steel increases slightly. The cost is supported, but the demand is weak. The production is expected to increase in August, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is expected that the price will fluctuate strongly in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 12800 - 13500 [32][33][35] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate increases. The supply is affected by disturbances, and the demand is optimistic. The inventory decreases slightly. It is expected that the price will be strong in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 86000 - 92000. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously and try to go long lightly at low prices [36][37][39] Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The cost increased, and the steel mill's profit improved. The supply increased, and the demand decreased, with inventory accumulating mainly in traders. Considering the expected production restrictions in the middle and late August, it is expected that the price will remain high and fluctuate, and the support levels for hot - rolled coils and rebar are around 3400 and 3150 respectively [40][41][42] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price of iron ore decreased slightly. The global shipment increased, and the port arrival volume decreased. The demand from steel mills was high, and the inventory increased slightly. Considering the production restrictions of Hebei steel mills in the late period, it is recommended to short at high prices [43][44] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures price fell. The supply from domestic mines decreased slightly, and the import of Mongolian coal was stable. The demand from downstream industries was high but slowed down. The inventory was at a medium level. It is recommended to short at high prices for speculation and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse spread for arbitrage [45][47][48] - **Coke**: The sixth round of price increase for coke was implemented, and the seventh round was initiated. The supply increased slightly, and the demand was still resilient. The inventory decreased. It is recommended to short at high prices for the 2601 contract and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread for arbitrage [49][50] Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: The spot price of soybean meal increased slightly, and the trading volume increased. The开机 rate of oil mills decreased slightly. The fundamental news shows that the US soybean crushing volume increased, and the EU's oilseed import decreased. The USDA report supported the US soybean price, but there was still upward pressure. It is recommended to take long - term long positions at low prices [51][52][53] - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs fluctuated at a low level. The profit of pig farming varied, and the average weight of pigs increased slightly. With the expected increase in group - farmed pig sales in August and the need for small - scale farmers to sell large - weight pigs, the future pig price is not optimistic. It is not recommended to short blindly for far - month contracts [54][55] - **Corn**: The spot price of corn was mixed. The supply pressure was obvious, and the demand was weak. The inventory in Guangzhou ports decreased. It is expected that the corn price will be weak and fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [56][57][58] - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price oscillated at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price oscillated at a high level. The Brazilian sugar production increased, and the Indian sugar production was expected to increase. The domestic sugar import in July was expected to be much higher than last year. It is recommended to maintain a short - on - rebound strategy [59] - **Cotton**: After the cotton price stabilized in early August, the industrial downstream improved slightly. The inventory of cotton yarn decreased slightly, and the spinning mill's operation rate remained stable. The cotton price has support at low levels, and it is expected to oscillate, paying attention to the traditional peak - season demand [60]

Group 1: General Information - Report title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Research team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core View - The spot freight rates have entered a downward channel, and the SCFIS has continued to decline this week. Considering the significant impact on foreign trade and the high supply of shipping capacity, the freight rates may be weaker in the off - season. The current main 10 - contract has a deep discount, and the market may engage in a game regarding the decline range and rate. It is recommended to short the 10 - contract on rallies [8]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot freight rates are in a downward trend. This week, the SCFIS dropped to 2180.17 points. The e - commerce platform quotes show that the August freight rates have been further reduced. The demand is unlikely to improve significantly, and the shipping capacity supply is at a relatively high level in the off - season. The main 10 - contract has a deep discount, and it is advisable to short the 10 - contract on rallies [8]. 2. Industry News - From August 11 to 15, the China export container shipping market continued to adjust, with most routes' freight rates falling. China's industrial added - value in July increased by 5.7% year - on - year. On August 15, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index dropped by 2.0%. In the European route, Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index in August dropped to 34.7, and the eurozone economy also faces challenges. The freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports dropped by 7.2%. In the Mediterranean route, the freight rate dropped by 1.7%. In the North American route, the US PPI in July increased by 3.3% year - on - year, and the customs tariff revenue reached $28 billion, a 273% increase year - on - year. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports dropped by 3.5% and 2.6% respectively. The threat of the Houthi armed forces to global shipping has escalated, and the international shipping safety situation has deteriorated. Israel's attacks on Yemen's ports have further intensified the conflict [9][10]. 3. Data Overview 1. Spot Freight Rates for Container Shipping - The SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) on August 18 was 2180.17 points, a 2.5% drop from August 11. The SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1106.29 points, a 2.2% increase from August 11 [12]. 2. Futures Quotes of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The trading data of container shipping European line futures on August 18 are as follows: for EC2508, the closing price was 2088.2, with a 0.30% increase; for EC2510, the closing price was 1373.1, with a 0.01% increase; for EC2512, the closing price was 1789.7, with a 2.30% increase; for EC2602, the closing price was 1537.9, with a 0.54% increase; for EC2604, the closing price was 1331.0, with a 0.27% decrease; for EC2606, the closing price was 1494.9, with a 0.55% increase [6]. 3. Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides charts of the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index, container shipping European line futures, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai - Europe freight rates [13][17][18][21]

General Information - Report Type: Daily Report on Container Shipping Index [1] - Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The peak of the shipping season has passed, and the SCFIS has further declined this week with an increasing decline rate. The spot freight rate has likely reached its peak and is expected to enter a downward channel in August. The 10 - contract is currently deeply discounted, and the market may engage in a game regarding the rate and magnitude of price cuts. It is recommended to short the 10 - contract on rallies [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Spot market: The peak of the shipping season has passed. This week, the SCFIS further declined with a larger decline rate. Main airlines have lowered their August quotes, and the freight rate is in a downward trend. The freight rate may return to the early - July level by late August. The demand side is unlikely to improve significantly, and the freight rate may be even lower in the off - season. The 10 - contract is deeply discounted, and it is recommended to short it on rallies [8]. 2. Industry News - From August 4th to August 8th, the China export container shipping market was basically stable, with the lack of growth momentum in transport demand. Most route freight rates continued to decline, dragging down the composite index. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on August 8th was 1489.68 points, a 3.9% decline from the previous period [9]. - China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year. The EU is China's second - largest trading partner in the first 7 months of 2025, with a trade value of 3.35 trillion yuan, a 3.9% increase year - on - year, accounting for 13% of China's total foreign trade value. In July, China's export growth to the EU reached 9.2%, which was the main driving force for the rebound in exports [9]. - The supply - demand relationship in the shipping market this week was weak, and the freight rates on European and Mediterranean routes continued to decline. On August 8th, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was 1961 US dollars/TEU, a 4.4% decline from the previous period; the freight rate to Mediterranean basic ports was 2318 US dollars/TEU, a 0.6% decline [10]. - The threat of the Houthi armed forces to global shipping has escalated. They have attacked an Israeli airport and "sanctioned" 64 shipping companies, which may disrupt shipping routes and affect freight rates [10]. - The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may soon reach a trade agreement with India [10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - From August 4th to August 11th, the SCFIS for the European route decreased from 2297.86 to 2235.48, a 2.7% decline; the SCFIS for the US - West route decreased from 1130.12 to 1082.14, a 4.2% decline [12]. 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market - The trading data of container shipping European line futures on August 14th shows that different contracts have different price changes, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, the EC2510 contract decreased by 2.4, a 0.18% decline, with a trading volume of 32077 and an open interest of 56698 [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [16][19]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The peak of the shipping season has likely passed, and the SCFIS has further declined this week with an increased rate of decline. Spot freight rates have likely reached their peak and are expected to enter a downward trend in August. The主力10 contract has a deep discount, and the market may engage in a game regarding the rate and magnitude of price cuts. It is recommended to take short positions on the 10 contract when the price rises [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The peak of the shipping season has likely passed, and the SCFIS has further declined this week with an increased rate of decline. Shipping companies have lowered their August quotes, and the freight rates are expected to enter a downward trend in August. The demand side is unlikely to improve significantly, and the supply of shipping capacity is relatively high during the off - season. The freight rates this year may be even lower during the off - season. It is recommended to take short positions on the 10 contract when the price rises [8]. 2. Industry News - Market Conditions: From August 4th to 8th, the China export container shipping market was basically stable, but the transport demand lacked growth momentum. The freight rates of most routes continued to decline, dragging down the composite index. In July, China's exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the improvement in exports to Europe was the main driving force for the rebound in exports [9]. - Geopolitical Tensions: The threat from the Houthi armed forces to global shipping has escalated again, and the international shipping safety situation has continued to deteriorate. If the conflict worsens significantly, it may boost futures prices in the short term [10]. - Trade Policy: The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may soon reach a trade agreement with India [10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index: The SCFIS for the European route decreased by 2.7% from August 4th to 11th, and the SCFIS for the US West route decreased by 4.2% [12]. 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Not elaborated in detail in the text, only mentioned the trading data of container shipping European line futures on August 13th, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, etc. for different contracts [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides charts on the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, but does not provide detailed data analysis [12][16][19]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: August 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The peak of the shipping season has passed, and the SCFIS has further declined this week with an increased drop. The spot freight rate has likely reached its peak and is expected to enter a downward channel in August. The主力10 contract is deeply discounted, and it is recommended to short the 10 contract on rallies [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Spot market: The peak of the shipping season has passed. The SCFIS has further declined this week with an increased drop. The freight rates of major airlines in August are showing a weekly decline. The spot freight rate has likely reached its peak and is expected to enter a downward channel in August. The demand side is unlikely to improve significantly, and the freight rates this year may be weaker in the off - season. It is recommended to short the 10 contract on rallies [8]. 2. Industry News - From August 4th to 8th, the China export container shipping market was basically stable, but the freight rates on most routes continued to decline. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on August 8th was 1489.68 points, a 3.9% decline from the previous period. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year. The EU is China's second - largest trading partner, and the trade volume with the EU in the first 7 months of 2025 increased by 3.9% year - on - year. The improvement in exports to Europe was the main driving force for the export recovery in July. The freight rates on the European and Mediterranean routes continued to decline. The threat of the Houthi armed forces to global shipping has escalated, and the international shipping safety situation has deteriorated. The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may soon reach a trade agreement with India [9][10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - From August 4th to 11th, the SCFIS for the European route decreased from 2297.86 to 2235.48, a 2.7% decline; the SCFIS for the US West route decreased from 1130.12 to 1082.14, a 4.2% decline [12]. 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Data on the trading of container shipping European line futures contracts on August 12th is provided, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest for different contracts such as EC2508, EC2510, etc. [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Charts include the global container shipping capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - European basic port freight rate, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rate [16][19]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoint - The peak of the peak season in the spot market has appeared, and the SCFIS has further declined this week with an increased decline. The market lacks a coordinated price - supporting atmosphere, and the spot price of freight has likely reached its peak. Freight rates are expected to enter a downward channel in August. The main 10 - contract has a deep discount, and the market may engage in a game regarding the price - cut range and rate. It is recommended to grasp the downward trend and short the 10 - contract on rallies [8] Content Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The peak of the peak season has passed. This week, the SCFIS has further declined with an increased decline. Airlines have lowered their August quotes, and the freight rate is in a downward trend. Taking the Shanghai - Rotterdam route as an example, Maersk's quotes have been decreasing. The freight rate may return to the early - July level by late August. Considering the large impact on foreign trade and the relatively high level of运力 supply, the freight rate may be weaker in the off - season this year [8] - Operation Suggestion: The main 10 - contract has a deep discount. The market may have a game on the price - cut range and rate. It is recommended to short the 10 - contract on rallies [8] 2. Industry News - Market Conditions: From August 4th to 8th, the China export container shipping market was basically stable, but the transport demand lacked growth momentum. Most route market freight rates continued to decline, dragging down the comprehensive index. On August 8th, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1489.68 points, a 3.9% decline from the previous period [9] - Trade Data: In the first 7 months of 2025, the EU was China's second - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 3.35 trillion yuan, a 3.9% year - on - year increase, accounting for 13% of China's total foreign trade value. In July, China's export growth to the EU reached 9.2%, which was the main driving force for the export recovery in July. However, future China - EU trade may face greater competition pressure [9] - Route Freight Rates: On August 8th, the market freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was 1961 US dollars/TEU, a 4.4% decline from the previous period. The market situation of the Mediterranean route was basically the same as that of the European route, with a slight decline in the spot booking price [10] - International Incidents: The threat of the Houthi armed forces to global shipping has escalated. They have attacked Israel's Ben - Gurion International Airport and announced "sanctions" on 64 shipping companies. The international shipping safety situation has continued to deteriorate. If the conflict worsens significantly, it may boost futures prices in the short term [10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Index | August 11, 2025 | August 4, 2025 | Change | YoY (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Route (Basic Ports) | 2235.48 | 2297.86 | - 62.38 | - 2.7% | | SCFIS: US West Route (Basic Ports) | 1082.14 | 1130.12 | - 47.98 | - 4.2% | [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - The report provides data on the trading of multiple container shipping European line futures contracts on August 11, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report includes charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [16][19]