集装箱运输市场日报 —— 期货标的降幅扩大，08合约交割 2025/8/25 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 俞俊臣 投资咨询证号：Z0021065 EC风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位，但运力偏饱满，或订舱货量不佳，旺季不 | 旺，担心运价下跌 | 多 | 为防止损失，可根据企业舱位，做空集运指数期货来 锁定利润 | EC2510 | 卖出 | 1450~1550 | | 成本管理 船司空班力度加大，或即将进入市场旺季，希望根据订单 | 情况进行订舱 | 空 | 为防止运价上涨而增加运输成本，可以在当前买入集 运指数期货，以提前确定订舱成本 | EC2510 | 买入 | 1200~1300 | source： 南华期货 【核心矛盾】 今日集运指数（欧线）期货各月合约价格先震荡上行，后回归震荡。截至收盘，除EC2606外，EC各月 合约价格均有所回升。从交易所排名前20大机构持仓增减去看， ...

키S | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/8/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基差 | 昨日成交宣 | | 昨日持命量 | 持食变动 | | | EC2508 EC2510 | | 2127.7 1309.0 | 0.13 -1.21 | 52.5 871.2 | | 120 25350 | 1968 54255 | -92 | | | | | | | | | | | -38 | | | EC2512 | | 1661.2 | -3.50 | 519.0 | | 8311 | 13295 | 1086 | | | EC2602 | | 1465.0 | -3.17 | 715.2 | | 1372 | 4455 | 52 | | 期货 | EC2604 | | 1264.5 | -1.94 | 915.7 | | 1364 | 5836 | 120 | | | EC2606 | | 1430.0 | -2.73 | 750 ...

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 22 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 二、行业要闻 8 月 11 日至 8 月 15 日，中国出口集装箱运输市场继续调整行情，多数航线市场 运价走低，拖累综合指数下跌。据国家统计局最新公布的数据显示，中国 7 月规 模以上工业增加值同比增速 5.7%，国民经济继续保持稳中有进发展态势，展现出 较强韧性和活力。8 月 15 日，上海航运交易所发布的上海出口集装箱综合运价指 数为 1460.19 点，较上期下跌 2.0%。欧洲航线，据欧洲经济研究中心公布的数据 显示，欧洲主要国家德国 8 月 ZEW 经济景气指数跌至 34.7，大幅低于市场预期， ...

Group 1: General Information - Report title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: August 21, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] - Team: Macro Finance Team [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The spot freight rate has entered a downward channel, and the SCFIS has continued to decline this week. Although the price has stabilized, the demand side is unlikely to improve significantly due to the impact of tariffs, and the shipping capacity supply is at a relatively high level in the off - season. The freight rate this year may show the characteristic of an even more off - season. The short - term futures decline may narrow, but it may still show a downward trend in the long term. It is recommended to short the 10 - contract on rallies [8]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot market: The SCFIS has continued to decline to 2180.17 points this week. The August freight rate has been adjusted downward, and now the price has stabilized. For example, Maersk's 40GP container price for the fourth week of August on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route is about $300 lower than that of the third week, and the quotes of other shipping companies are concentrated in the range of $2500 - $2900. CMA CGM and ONE plan to increase the September freight rate slightly compared to the end of August [8]. - Market outlook: Due to the uncertainty of tariffs and the large actual damage to foreign trade, the demand side is difficult to improve significantly. The shipping capacity supply is at a relatively high level in the off - season. The 10 - contract is deeply at a discount, and the short - term futures decline may narrow. In the long term, it may still show a downward trend, and it is recommended to short the 10 - contract on rallies [8]. 2. Industry News - China's export container shipping market: From August 11 to August 15, the market continued to adjust, and the freight rates of most routes declined, dragging down the composite index. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on August 15 was 1460.19 points, a 2.0% decline from the previous period [9]. - European routes: Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index in August dropped to 34.7, far lower than market expectations, ending three consecutive months of recovery. The eurozone's overall data is consistent with Germany's. The freight demand lacks growth momentum, and the spot booking price continues to decline. On August 15, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1820/TEU, a 7.2% decline from the previous period [9]. - Mediterranean routes: The market situation is synchronized with European routes, and the freight rate continues to decline. On August 15, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2279/TEU, a 1.7% decline from the previous period [10]. - North American routes: The US PPI in July increased by 3.3% year - on - year, far exceeding market expectations. The US customs tariff revenue in July reached $28 billion, a 273% increase from the same period last year, but the fiscal deficit increased by 10% year - on - year. The market supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the shipping market continues to adjust. On August 15, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports were $1759/FEU and $2719/FEU respectively, down 3.5% and 2.6% from the previous period [10]. - International shipping security: The Houthi armed forces' threat to global shipping has escalated. They have attacked Israel's Ben - Gurion International Airport and announced "sanctions" on 64 shipping companies. If the conflict worsens significantly, it may boost futures prices in the short term [10]. - Israel - Yemen conflict: Israel has carried out multiple air strikes on Yemen's Hodeidah Port, which is crucial for Yemen's trade and humanitarian supplies [10]. 3. Data Overview - Spot freight rates: The SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) on August 18 was 2180.17 points, a 2.5% decline from August 11; the SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1106.29 points, a 2.2% increase from August 11 [12]. - Futures market: The trading data of eight container shipping European line futures contracts on August 20 are provided, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. - Shipping - related data: The report also includes charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [18][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Today, the prices of each monthly contract of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures first fluctuated slightly downward and then rebounded. As of the close, the prices of each EC contract showed mixed gains and losses. Looking at the changes in the positions of the top 20 institutional holders on the exchange, in the EC2510 contract, long positions decreased by 150 lots to 27,425 lots, short positions decreased by 609 lots to 31,390 lots, and trading volume increased by 1,556 lots to 34,557 lots (bilateral). The opening price of the futures price today slightly declined, which should be affected by the spot cabin quotes on the European Line. After yesterday's close, CMA CGM once again lowered its spot cabin quotes on the European Line for the next two weeks. However, it then rebounded. On one hand, it should be because the spot cabin quotes on the European Line for some newly opened voyages of MSK in the next two weeks have increased to a certain extent compared to before, which is somewhat positive for the valuation of the futures price. On the other hand, it may come from the recurrence of geopolitical risks. For the future market, it is still relatively likely that the EC will continue to show a volatile trend, and some contracts may rebound from low levels [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For those who have already obtained cabin positions but have full capacity or poor booking volume, and are worried about falling freight rates, they can short the container shipping index futures according to the company's cabin positions to lock in profits. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a selling recommendation and an entry range of 1450 - 1550 [1]. - For those who want to book cabins according to order situations due to increased blank sailings by shipping companies or the approaching peak season, they can buy the container shipping index futures at present to determine the cabin - booking cost in advance. The recommended hedging tool is EC2510, with a buying recommendation and an entry range of 1200 - 1300 [1]. 利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - The spot cabin quotes on the European Line for some newly opened voyages of MSK in the next two weeks have increased to a certain extent compared to before [2]. - According to the "Israel Times" report on the 20th local time, Israeli Defense Minister Katz has approved the Israeli army's offensive plan against Gaza City in northern Gaza. The offensive operation is named "Gideon's Chariot B" [2]. 利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - CMA CGM has lowered the quotes on the European Line for the end of August and early September [3]. EC Basis Daily Changes - On August 20, 2025, the basis of EC2508 was 57.17 points, with a daily increase of 4.30 points and a weekly decrease of 95.31 points [4]. - The basis of EC2510 was 825.17 points, with a daily increase of 15.30 points and a weekly decrease of 77.21 points [5]. - The basis of EC2512 was 404.27 points, with a daily decrease of 0.90 points and a weekly decrease of 131.11 points [5]. - The basis of EC2602 was 648.17 points, with a daily increase of 3.40 points and a weekly decrease of 99.31 points [5]. - The basis of EC2604 was 865.87 points, with a daily increase of 8.80 points and a weekly decrease of 41.01 points [5]. - The basis of EC2606 was 700.17 points, with a daily increase of 12.30 points and a weekly decrease of 62.31 points [5]. EC Price and Spread - On August 20, 2025, the closing price of EC2508 was 2123.0 points, with a daily decrease of 0.20% and a weekly increase of 1.92% [5]. - The closing price of EC2510 was 1355.0 points, with a daily decrease of 1.12% and a weekly increase of 1.64% [5]. - The closing price of EC2512 was 1775.9 points, with a daily increase of 0.05% and a weekly increase of 4.46% [5]. - The closing price of EC2602 was 1532.0 points, with a daily decrease of 0.22% and a weekly increase of 2.96% [5]. - The closing price of EC2604 was 1314.3 points, with a daily decrease of 0.87% and a weekly decrease of 1.08% [5]. - The closing price of EC2606 was 1480.0 points, with a daily decrease of 0.82% and a weekly increase of 0.48% [5]. - The spread of EC2508 - 2512 was 347.1 points, with a daily decrease of 5.2 points and a weekly decrease of 35.8 points [5]. - The spread of EC2512 - 2604 was 461.6 points, with a daily increase of 9.7 points and a weekly increase of 56.5 points [5]. - The spread of EC2604 - 2508 was - 808.7 points, with a daily decrease of 4.5 points and a weekly decrease of 73.6 points [5]. - The spread of EC2508 - 2510 was 768.0 points, with a daily decrease of 5.2 points and a weekly increase of 18.1 points [5]. - The spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 420.9 points, with a daily decrease of 16.2 points and a weekly decrease of 53.9 points [5]. - The spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 243.9 points, with a daily increase of 4.3 points and a weekly increase of 11 points [5]. Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On August 28, for Maersk's sailings from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1490/1564, an increase of $10/74 compared to the previous value/same - period quotes of other sailings; the total quote for 40GP was $2530/2656, an increase of $20/125 compared to the same - period quotes of other sailings [7]. - On September 4, for Maersk's sailings from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1285/1349, an increase of $20/64 compared to the previous value/same - period quotes of other sailings; the total quote for 40GP was $2150/2257, an increase of $40/107 compared to the previous value/same - period quotes of other sailings [7]. - In late August and early September, for CMA CGM's sailings from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1510, a decrease of $50/650 compared to the previous value; the total quote for 40GP was $2620, a decrease of $100/800 compared to the previous value [7]. Global Freight Rate Index - The latest value of SCFIS for the European route was 2180.17 points, a decrease of 55.31 points and a decline of 2.47% compared to the previous value [8]. - The latest value of SCFIS for the US - West route was 1106.29 points, an increase of 24.15 points and a rise of 2.23% compared to the previous value [8]. - The latest value of SCFI for the European route was $1820/TEU, a decrease of $141 and a decline of 7.19% compared to the previous value [8]. - The latest value of SCFI for the US - West route was $1759/FEU, a decrease of $64 and a decline of 3.51% compared to the previous value [8]. - The latest value of XSI for the European Line was $3074/FEU, a decrease of $9 and a decline of 0.29% compared to the previous value [8]. - The latest value of XSI for the US - West Line was $1837/FEU, a decrease of $12 and a decline of 0.7% compared to the previous value [8]. - The latest value of the FBX comprehensive freight rate index was $1962/FEU, a decrease of $13 and a decline of 0.66% compared to the previous value [8]. Global Major Port Waiting Times - On August 19, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.395 days, a decrease of 0.625 days compared to the previous day and 0.924 days in the same period last year [15]. - The waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.823 days, an increase of 0.014 days compared to the previous day and 1.439 days in the same period last year [15]. - The waiting time at Yantian Port was 0.880 days, a decrease of 0.058 days compared to the previous day and 0.605 days in the same period last year [15]. - The waiting time at Singapore Port was 0.563 days, a decrease of 0.546 days compared to the previous day and 0.601 days in the same period last year [15]. - The waiting time at Jakarta Port was 1.822 days, an increase of 0.294 days compared to the previous day and 0.980 days in the same period last year [15]. - The waiting time at Long Beach Port was 2.529 days, an increase of 0.218 days compared to the previous day and 1.999 days in the same period last year [15]. - The waiting time at Savannah Port was 1.528 days, an increase of 0.290 days compared to the previous day and 2.141 days in the same period last year [15]. Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Ports - On August 19, 2025, the speed of container ships over 8000 was 15.846 knots, a decrease of 0.12 knots compared to the previous day and 16.009 knots in the same period last year [23]. - The speed of container ships over 3000 was 14.902 knots, a decrease of 0.069 knots compared to the previous day and 15.169 knots in the same period last year [23]. - The speed of container ships over 1000 was 13.344 knots, an increase of 0.075 knots compared to the previous day and 13.49 knots in the same period last year [23]. - The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorages was 12, a decrease of 7 compared to the previous day and 7 in the same period last year [23].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall strategy maintains the logic of shorting on rallies because the situation in September is generally loose and the subsequent driving force continues to be weak. The contract for October is currently at a discount of about 450 points to the spot, and there is still expected to be room for further decline. The valuation of far - month contracts is unclear, more affected by driving factors, and due to low positions, they are greatly affected by macro and capital behaviors [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: For EC futures contracts, on August 20, 2025, EC2508 closed at 2127.3 with a 1.87% increase; EC2510 closed at 1370.3 with a 0.20% decrease; EC2512 closed at 1775.0 with a 0.82% decrease; EC2602 closed at 1535.4 with a 0.16% decrease; EC2604 closed at 1323.1 with a 0.59% decrease; EC2606 closed at 1492.3 with a 0.17% decrease [2] - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: For example, the spread of EC2508 - 2510 was 757.0, up 7.1 from the previous week; the spread of EC2510 - 2512 was - 404.7, with a weekly change of - 37.7; the spread of EC2512 - 2602 was 239.6, up 27.5 from the previous week [2] Spot Market - **Indices**: As of August 18, 2025, the index was at 2180.17, down 2.47% from the previous period. As of August 15, 2025, the SCFI (European Line) was at 1820 dollars/TEU, down 7.19% from the previous period; the CCFI was at 1790.47 points, down 0.48% from the previous period; the NCFI was at 1188.69 points, down 5.49% from the previous period [2] Weekly Market Conditions - **Booking Situation**: Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the end of August (week 34 - 35). The average price for week 34 was 2850 US dollars (2000 points), and the current average quote for week 35 is 2625 US dollars (equivalent to 1840 points). Among them, the PA Alliance quoted 2500 US dollars, MSK 2300 US dollars, and the OA Alliance 2700 - 2800 US dollars [2] - **Cargo Receiving Situation**: In week 33, MSK had better cargo - receiving, the OA Alliance was average, and the PA Alliance was poor. In week 34, cargo - receiving significantly declined, and some shipping companies faced pressure to receive cargo [2] - **Capacity Adjustment**: The overall capacity in September will be reduced because the PA Alliance will add a sail - stop in week 37. The average weekly capacities in August, September (tentative), and October (tentative) 2025 are 328,000, 312,000, and 315,000 TEU respectively. After counting all TBNs as sail - stops, they are 528,000, 297,000, and 283,000 TEU respectively [2] Recent European Line Quotations - **Week 34**: The final average price was 2850 US dollars (2000 points) [3] - **Week 35**: The current average quote is 2575 US dollars (equivalent to 1770 points). The PA Alliance quoted 2500 US dollars, MSK initially opened at 2300 US dollars and then raised it to 2490 US dollars, and the OA Alliance quoted 2700 - 2800 US dollars [3] - **Week 36**: On Tuesday, MSK opened at 2100 US dollars, and some routes rose to 2200 US dollars; CMA's quote dropped from 3420 to 2620 US dollars [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the second half of August (week 34 - 35). The average price for week 34 is $2,850 (2,000 points), and the current average quote for week 35 is $2,575 (1,770 points). Among them, the PA Alliance offers $2,500, MSK offers $2,300, and the OA Alliance offers $2,700 - $2,800. From a fundamental perspective, in week 33, MSK had better cargo collection, OA was average, and PA was poor. In week 34, cargo collection significantly declined, and some shipping companies faced pressure to accept cargo. This week, the overall shipping capacity for September has been reduced due to an additional suspension of sailings by the PA Alliance in week 37. The average weekly shipping capacities in August, September (tentatively), and October (tentatively) 2025 are 328,000, 312,000, and 315,000 TEU respectively. After considering all TBN as suspended sailings, the capacities are 328,000, 297,000, and 283,000 TEU. In terms of strategy, the overall logic of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. This is mainly because the overall situation in September is loose, and the subsequent driving forces are weak. Currently, the October contract is at a discount of about 450 points to the spot price, and it is expected that there is still room for further decline. The valuation of the far - month contracts is unclear and is more affected by driving forces. However, due to low positions, they are greatly affected by macro and capital behaviors [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - For the EC2508 contract, the previous closing price was 2,088.2, with a change of 0.21%, a basis of 147.3, a previous trading volume of 250, a previous open interest of 2,452, and an open interest change of - 54. For other contracts (EC2510, EC2512, etc.), detailed price, change, basis, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change data are also provided [2]. - Regarding the month - to - month spreads, for example, the EC2508 - 2510 spread was 715.1, with comparisons to the previous one, two, and three days and percentage changes also given [2]. Spot Index Information - The SCHIS index, updated weekly on Mondays, was 2,235.48 on August 11, 2025, with a change of - 2.71% compared to the previous period. The SCFI index, updated weekly on Fridays, was $1,820/TEU on August 15, 2025, with a change of - 7.19% compared to the previous period. The CCFI index, updated weekly on Fridays, was 1,790.47 on August 15, 2025, with a change of - 0.48% compared to the previous period. The NCFI index was 1,188.69 on August 15, 2025, with a change of - 5.49% compared to the previous period [2]. Recent European Line Quotation Information - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the second half of August (week 34 - 35). The average price for week 34 is $2,850 (2,000 points), and the current average quote for week 35 is $2,575 (1,770 points). On Monday, EMC's price dropped by $200 to $2,760, MSC's price dropped by $250 to $2,590, and MSK's price rose from $2,300 to $2,490 [3]. Related News - On August 19, Middle - East media reported that Hamas agreed to a 60 - day cease - fire and release half of the detainees. Israeli media reported that Israel received Hamas' latest cease - fire proposal. Note that the XSI - C index is released with a three - day delay [4]

Group 1: General Information - Report title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Research team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core View - The spot freight rates have entered a downward channel, and the SCFIS has continued to decline this week. Considering the significant impact on foreign trade and the high supply of shipping capacity, the freight rates may be weaker in the off - season. The current main 10 - contract has a deep discount, and the market may engage in a game regarding the decline range and rate. It is recommended to short the 10 - contract on rallies [8]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot freight rates are in a downward trend. This week, the SCFIS dropped to 2180.17 points. The e - commerce platform quotes show that the August freight rates have been further reduced. The demand is unlikely to improve significantly, and the shipping capacity supply is at a relatively high level in the off - season. The main 10 - contract has a deep discount, and it is advisable to short the 10 - contract on rallies [8]. 2. Industry News - From August 11 to 15, the China export container shipping market continued to adjust, with most routes' freight rates falling. China's industrial added - value in July increased by 5.7% year - on - year. On August 15, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index dropped by 2.0%. In the European route, Germany's ZEW economic sentiment index in August dropped to 34.7, and the eurozone economy also faces challenges. The freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports dropped by 7.2%. In the Mediterranean route, the freight rate dropped by 1.7%. In the North American route, the US PPI in July increased by 3.3% year - on - year, and the customs tariff revenue reached $28 billion, a 273% increase year - on - year. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports dropped by 3.5% and 2.6% respectively. The threat of the Houthi armed forces to global shipping has escalated, and the international shipping safety situation has deteriorated. Israel's attacks on Yemen's ports have further intensified the conflict [9][10]. 3. Data Overview 1. Spot Freight Rates for Container Shipping - The SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) on August 18 was 2180.17 points, a 2.5% drop from August 11. The SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1106.29 points, a 2.2% increase from August 11 [12]. 2. Futures Quotes of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The trading data of container shipping European line futures on August 18 are as follows: for EC2508, the closing price was 2088.2, with a 0.30% increase; for EC2510, the closing price was 1373.1, with a 0.01% increase; for EC2512, the closing price was 1789.7, with a 2.30% increase; for EC2602, the closing price was 1537.9, with a 0.54% increase; for EC2604, the closing price was 1331.0, with a 0.27% decrease; for EC2606, the closing price was 1494.9, with a 0.55% increase [6]. 3. Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides charts of the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index, container shipping European line futures, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai - Europe freight rates [13][17][18][21]

General Information - Report Type: Daily Report on Container Shipping Index [1] - Date: August 15, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The peak of the shipping season has passed, and the SCFIS has further declined this week with an increasing decline rate. The spot freight rate has likely reached its peak and is expected to enter a downward channel in August. The 10 - contract is currently deeply discounted, and the market may engage in a game regarding the rate and magnitude of price cuts. It is recommended to short the 10 - contract on rallies [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Spot market: The peak of the shipping season has passed. This week, the SCFIS further declined with a larger decline rate. Main airlines have lowered their August quotes, and the freight rate is in a downward trend. The freight rate may return to the early - July level by late August. The demand side is unlikely to improve significantly, and the freight rate may be even lower in the off - season. The 10 - contract is deeply discounted, and it is recommended to short it on rallies [8]. 2. Industry News - From August 4th to August 8th, the China export container shipping market was basically stable, with the lack of growth momentum in transport demand. Most route freight rates continued to decline, dragging down the composite index. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on August 8th was 1489.68 points, a 3.9% decline from the previous period [9]. - China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year. The EU is China's second - largest trading partner in the first 7 months of 2025, with a trade value of 3.35 trillion yuan, a 3.9% increase year - on - year, accounting for 13% of China's total foreign trade value. In July, China's export growth to the EU reached 9.2%, which was the main driving force for the rebound in exports [9]. - The supply - demand relationship in the shipping market this week was weak, and the freight rates on European and Mediterranean routes continued to decline. On August 8th, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was 1961 US dollars/TEU, a 4.4% decline from the previous period; the freight rate to Mediterranean basic ports was 2318 US dollars/TEU, a 0.6% decline [10]. - The threat of the Houthi armed forces to global shipping has escalated. They have attacked an Israeli airport and "sanctioned" 64 shipping companies, which may disrupt shipping routes and affect freight rates [10]. - The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may soon reach a trade agreement with India [10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - From August 4th to August 11th, the SCFIS for the European route decreased from 2297.86 to 2235.48, a 2.7% decline; the SCFIS for the US - West route decreased from 1130.12 to 1082.14, a 4.2% decline [12]. 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market - The trading data of container shipping European line futures on August 14th shows that different contracts have different price changes, trading volumes, and open interests. For example, the EC2510 contract decreased by 2.4, a 0.18% decline, with a trading volume of 32077 and an open interest of 56698 [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, but no specific data analysis is provided in the text [16][19]

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: August 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The peak of the shipping season has passed, and the SCFIS has further declined this week with an increased drop. The spot freight rate has likely reached its peak and is expected to enter a downward channel in August. The主力10 contract is deeply discounted, and it is recommended to short the 10 contract on rallies [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Spot market: The peak of the shipping season has passed. The SCFIS has further declined this week with an increased drop. The freight rates of major airlines in August are showing a weekly decline. The spot freight rate has likely reached its peak and is expected to enter a downward channel in August. The demand side is unlikely to improve significantly, and the freight rates this year may be weaker in the off - season. It is recommended to short the 10 contract on rallies [8]. 2. Industry News - From August 4th to 8th, the China export container shipping market was basically stable, but the freight rates on most routes continued to decline. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on August 8th was 1489.68 points, a 3.9% decline from the previous period. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year. The EU is China's second - largest trading partner, and the trade volume with the EU in the first 7 months of 2025 increased by 3.9% year - on - year. The improvement in exports to Europe was the main driving force for the export recovery in July. The freight rates on the European and Mediterranean routes continued to decline. The threat of the Houthi armed forces to global shipping has escalated, and the international shipping safety situation has deteriorated. The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may soon reach a trade agreement with India [9][10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - From August 4th to 11th, the SCFIS for the European route decreased from 2297.86 to 2235.48, a 2.7% decline; the SCFIS for the US West route decreased from 1130.12 to 1082.14, a 4.2% decline [12]. 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Data on the trading of container shipping European line futures contracts on August 12th is provided, including the previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest for different contracts such as EC2508, EC2510, etc. [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Charts include the global container shipping capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - European basic port freight rate, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rate [16][19]