动力煤观点：下游采购意愿有限，短期市场表现或偏僵持 ◼ 基本面： 3 ◼ （1）供应：节后煤矿恢复正常产销，前期停产煤矿多已复产，供应边际趋于宽松，样本煤矿周度产能利用率增加8.64个百分点 至88.24%（汾渭）。11月份，全国原煤产量42679.3万吨，同比-0.5%，环比+4.93%；1-11月全国原煤产量累计440164.7万 吨，同比 1.4%。1-11月进口煤及褐煤43168万吨，同比增长-12%； ◼ （2）需求：未来10天，我国大部气温偏暖，日耗高位但持续时间或有限，电厂库存偏高，库存暂未得到有效去化，关注下游采 购补库节奏。11月份，规上工业火电增速转负，同比增速-4.2%，10月为7.3%。 ◼ （3）库存：北港库存持续下降，下游采购疲弱，对高价接受度有限，市场成交清淡。截止1月9日，北方港（不含黄骅）库存合 计2500.0万吨，周环比减少113.0万吨。本周港口日均调入量94.68万吨，环比增加2.74万吨，日均调出104.48万吨，环比减少 10.26万吨。 ◼ 主要逻辑：短期煤价持续上涨动力不足，或以窄幅调整为主。节后产地煤矿生产恢复，供应边际趋宽松；北港持续去库，叠加 下游日耗支撑 ...

行 业 研 究 煤炭行业：国内动力煤价跌，六大 发电集团日均耗煤量上升 | 2025 年 | 12 | 月 | 24 | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 看好/维持 | | | | | | 煤炭 | | 行业报告 | | | 国内动力煤价格环比上月下降，澳大利亚纽卡斯尔港 NEWC 岸价格环比上升。 截至 12 月 15 日，秦皇岛动力煤山西优混 5500 平仓价格 736.00 元/吨，环比 上月下降 91 元/吨，降幅为 11%。截至 12 月 15 日，内蒙古乌海 Q5500 大卡 动力煤车板含税价 596.00 元/吨，环比上月降 72 元/吨，降幅为 10.78%；大 同南郊 Q5500 大卡动力煤车板含税价 615.00 元/吨，环比上月下降 95.00 元/ 吨，降幅为 13.38%。截至 12 月 15 日，澳大利亚纽卡斯尔港 NEWC 动力煤 离岸价格 108.60 美元/吨，环比上月上升 0.30 美元/吨，涨幅为 0.28%。 11 月陕晋蒙三省国有重点煤矿煤炭月度产量陕环比下降，晋蒙环比上升。11 月国有重点煤矿煤炭月度产量：陕西产 2174 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of thermal coal remains stable, with normal production in most mines. Recently, prices in some production areas have weakened, and the premium rate of auctions has narrowed, leading to a slight decline in market sentiment. The upward trend of port prices has slowed down, and the sentiment of traders to hold prices has weakened. - Policy disturbances still exist, and the supply side needs continuous monitoring. Although the overall inventory of thermal coal is relatively safe, the changes in power plant and port inventories need to be closely watched. - In the short term, due to intensified downstream gaming, thermal coal faces certain callback pressure. It is expected that the subsequent shipping profit will expand, and after the callback, there will still be support for the overall price. The upside potential mainly depends on the actual downstream demand, and continuous tracking of daily consumption and inventory changes is required. [9] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: In October 2025, China imported 41.737 million tons of coal, a year - on - year decrease of 9.75% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.27%. From January to October 2025, the total coal imports were 387.623 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11%. The weekly output of main production area mines was 27.38 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.9%, and the capacity utilization rate was 83%, a week - on - week increase of 0.8%. [9] - **Demand**: Terminal coal consumption in thermal power remains at a medium level, and as the heating season approaches, power plants are expected to release some restocking space. In the non - power sector, the chemical industry has rigid restocking demand, and coal consumption is at a medium - high level. However, some downstream users are somewhat resistant to high - priced coal. Alternative energy power generation performs well, accounting for about 35% of the total power generation. [9] - **Inventory**: The total social inventory is 204.18 million tons, a week - on - week increase of about 0.9%, slightly lower than the same period last year. Power plant inventory is 132.39 million tons (a week - on - week increase of about 0.86%), showing a slight inventory build - up, while port inventory is 57.03 million tons (a week - on - week decrease of about 0.34%). [9] - **Policy**: The National Energy Administration has issued a series of policies, including promoting stable and increased production in the coal industry, strengthening the overall planning and management of coal mine areas, emphasizing the reduction of non - power coal consumption, and organizing inspections of coal mine production. [9] 3.2 Price and Profit - **Production Area Prices**: In Inner Mongolia, the prices of Q5500, Q5000, and Q4500 decreased by 0.9%, 1.0%, and 0.0% week - on - week respectively; in Shaanxi, the prices of Q5500, Q5000, and Q4500 decreased by 0.8%, 0.9%, and 1.0% week - on - week respectively. The prices of Q6200 and Q6000 in Shaanxi remained unchanged. [14] - **Port Prices**: The upward trend of port prices has slowed down, with actual transaction prices ranging from 830 to 850 yuan/ton. The prices of different calorific values at Qinhuangdao Port and Guangzhou Port have shown varying degrees of week - on - week increases. [17][19] - **International Prices**: The international thermal coal spot prices in regions such as NEWC, ARA, and RB have shown different week - on - week changes, with NEWC increasing by 2.43% week - on - week, while ARA and RB remained unchanged. [28] - **Shipping Profits**: The shipping profits in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Shaanxi vary, with Inner Mongolia having a shipping loss of 50 yuan/ton for CV5500, Shanxi breaking even, and Shaanxi having a loss of 38 yuan/ton. [48] 3.3 Other Fundamental Data - **Supply - Side Data**: The cumulative production of raw coal in different regions from 2021 - 2025 is presented, as well as the monthly production data of different regions. The production and capacity utilization rates of coal mines in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi are also shown. [53][54][56] - **Import Data**: In October 2025, China's coal imports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. The import data from January to September 2025 shows different trends for different countries such as Indonesia, Australia, Russia, and Mongolia. [62][69] - **Demand - Side Data**: The electricity consumption data of different industries and the power generation data of different power sources (thermal, hydro, nuclear, wind, solar) are provided, including monthly and cumulative data, as well as data for different time intervals such as ten - day periods. The coal consumption data of different industries such as building materials, metallurgy, and chemicals are also presented. [76][86][91][126] - **Transportation and Inventory Data**: The transportation data of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway, comprehensive transportation indices, and logistics data of northern ports are shown. The inventory data of different ports and the overall social, power plant, and production area inventories are also provided. [158][162][167][169]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report believes that the spot price of thermal coal is expected to remain weakly running in the near - term, and the callback space of coal prices in this round may be relatively limited due to the supply - side support brought by the "anti - involution" policy [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content 1. Price and Market Situation - The reference view for the spot price of thermal coal is "oscillation" in the short - term and medium - term. The market atmosphere has turned weak again as the peak season for thermal coal is coming to an end, but the price decline space is limited [4]. 2. Supply - side Factors - In late August, safety supervision in major production areas remained strict. With the approaching of the September 3rd parade, the frequency and thoroughness of coal mine safety supervision increased, suppressing coal mine production [4]. 3. Demand - side Factors - Although the daily consumption of thermal coal remains high in the short - term, as the off - season approaches, terminal enterprises are becoming more and more hesitant, putting downward pressure on coal prices [4]. 4. Inventory Factors - As of August 22, the total coal inventory of 9 ports in the Bohai Rim was 2.3264 million tons, with a significant monthly destocking of 370,500 tons. The inventory was 76,600 tons lower than the same period last year, and the high - inventory advantage in the first half of the year has been basically digested [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The intraday and mid - term view of the power coal spot is "oscillating". As the peak season approaches, positive factors for power coal are accumulating, but the market is in a stalemate with prices remaining stable for now. The overall pattern of long - term supply - demand surplus for power coal remains unchanged, and there is a high possibility of weak prices during the peak season this summer [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Power Coal Spot Analysis - **Driving Factors for Price Trends** - **Positive Factors**: As the peak summer season approaches in June, terminal power plants have some demand for peak - season inventory replenishment, which provides slight support to the market sentiment. Also, domestic coal prices are at a low level compared to the international market, leading to a significant decrease in the cost - effectiveness of imported coal in 2025 compared to 2024, resulting in a decline in imports [4]. - **Negative Factors**: The long - term supply - demand situation of power coal remains loose. Current port inventories are at a five - year high for the same period, increasing the likelihood of weak prices during the peak season this summer [4].