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杰克逊霍尔央行年会焦点:发达国家老龄化
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-24 01:17
Group 1 - Central bank leaders from major economies warn that aging populations pose significant challenges to economic growth and price stability [1][2] - The rapid aging of populations in developed countries is leading to severe labor shortages, which could hinder economic growth unless more foreign workers are attracted [1][2] - In Japan, foreign workers account for only 3% of the labor force but contribute to 50% of recent labor growth, highlighting their importance [3] Group 2 - The dual impact of historically low birth rates and increased life expectancy is raising the dependency ratio, fundamentally challenging traditional economic growth models [2] - Aging populations not only risk slowing growth but may also increase inflationary pressures as labor shortages give workers stronger bargaining power for higher wages [2] - Attracting foreign workers is crucial to filling labor gaps, but rising populism and negative public sentiment towards immigration complicate policy-making [2] Group 3 - ECB President Lagarde noted that foreign workers contributed to half of the labor growth in the Eurozone over the past three years, despite making up only about 9% of the total labor force in 2022 [3] - The UK faces additional challenges with declining labor participation rates, driven by an increase in long-term illness and a significant drop in youth employment [3][4] - The Bank of England is increasingly concerned about inactivity rather than unemployment, as mental health issues are a common reason for non-participation in the labor force [4]