人口老龄化

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宏观专题分析报告:人口灰犀牛:现状、影响和应对
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-25 05:57
传统宏观研究范式下,人口通常被视为"慢变量"。但"十五五"时期,我国人口老龄化将进入加速阶段,当人口周期 从"缓坡"走向"陡崖",将会对宏观经济和政策产生显著影响,人口"灰犀牛"的影响将愈发不可忽视。 从全球人口趋势变化看,人口红利正在消失,老龄化趋势难以逆转。2024 年全球 65 岁及以上人口占比已经达到 10.2%, 按照国际通用的人口老龄化程度划分标准,目前全球已经步入轻度老龄化社会,而主要发达经济体均已处于中度或重 度老龄化社会。此外,全球总和生育率已下降至世代更替水平附近,发达经济体更是面临落入"低生育率陷阱"的风 险。 从人口转型的角度看,当前中国主要面临三个挑战:一是我国已进入加速老龄化时期,人口转型时间更短。根据联合 国《世界人口展望 2024》,中国 2032 年将正式步入重度老龄化社会,到 2035 年 65 岁以上人口占比将达到 22.8%。二 是少子化问题较为严峻。我国 2023 年我国总和生育率已降至 1.0 人,在全球主要经济体中仅略高于韩国。三是未富 先老将给总需求和社会保障体系带来压力。2024 年我国 65 岁以上人口达到 15.6%,接近日本 1997 年的老龄化水平, ...
特朗普关税大棒扑向家具业!鲍威尔“放鸽”,降息稳了?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-25 05:57
关税没完没了。 近日,特朗普发文称,正在对进入美国的家具进行重大的关税调查。在接下来的50天内,调查将完成,从其他国家进入美国的家具将被征收关税,税率待 定。 关税冲击波持续 特朗普政府继药品、半导体、钢铁铝等特定行业的关税之后,再次插手家具行业,不少分析人士认为,关税的大面积推进,可能对通胀与全球供应链产生深 远的影响。 另外,近日,加拿大总理卡尼宣布,将于9月1日取消多项针对美国商品的报复性关税,但对美国汽车、钢铁和铝的关税将暂时维持。卡尼表示,这一举措是 对美国降低加拿大商品关税的回应,并强调加美两国现已重新实现了绝大多数商品的自由贸易。 有媒体指出,加拿大宣布取消对美国商品征收的多项报复性关税,是为重启陷入僵局的贸易谈判释放善意。美墨加协定是北美三国于2018年签署的三边贸易 协定,2020年7月正式生效,并计划于2026年进行续签审议。 另外,备受关注的美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上发表讲话,他强调,尽管通胀仍受关注,但就业市场风险上升可能使美联储在9月降息。他强调, 在政策维持紧缩的背景下,经济前景及风险变化或需调整政策立场。 有分析指出,鲍威尔释放了明确的"鸽派"信号,为9月份美联储降息打开 ...
全球央行年会定调 美联储降息在即?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-24 15:12
2025年全球央行年会于8月21日—23日在美国怀俄明州的山区度假胜地杰克逊霍尔举行,全球投资者的 目光再度聚焦于此。而美联储主席鲍威尔在年会上的讲话,被市场普遍解读为9月降息的明确信号。另 一方面,全球主要经济体央行行长同时发出警告,劳动力风险正成为威胁经济增长和物价稳定的重大挑 战。 鲍威尔立场松动 鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月到期,这几乎肯定是他最后一次以美联储主席的身份出席杰克逊霍尔央行 年会。"短期内,通胀风险向上倾斜,就业风险向下倾斜,这是一个具有挑战性的局面。"他进一步解释 道,"由于政策处于限制性区域,基线前景和风险平衡的变化可能需要调整我们的政策立场。" 在演讲中,鲍威尔指出,风险平衡似乎正在发生转变,并强调就业市场面临的下行风险正在增加。美联 储的政策利率比一年前低了100个基点,失业率仍然很低,目前的情况允许美联储在考虑调整政策立场 时谨慎行事。在基准前景和风险平衡不断变化的背景下,美联储可能需要调整政策立场,这番表态被广 泛视为他为启动降息所做的铺垫。 美股也在鲍威尔讲话提振下收复了此前所有失地,标普500指数结束日线五连阴,道指创下今年以来的 首个收盘纪录。 嘉信理财在市场展望中写 ...
杰克逊霍尔央行年会焦点:发达国家老龄化
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-24 01:17
央行官员警告,人口老龄化带来的不仅是增长放缓风险,还可能推高通胀压力。在劳动力普遍短缺的环 境下,工人将获得更强的议价能力,能够要求更高的工资,这可能形成工资-价格螺旋上升的风险。 全球主要经济体央行行长在杰克逊霍尔年会上发出警告,人口老龄化正成为威胁经济增长和物价稳定的 重大挑战。 8月23日,据媒体报道,日本央行行长植田和男、欧洲央行行长拉加德和英国央行行长贝利一致认为, 发达国家未来几十年将面临劳动力严重短缺问题。除非能够吸引更多外国工人,否则将难以维持经济增 长和价格稳定。 植田和男在堪萨斯城联储年度研讨会上表示,快速老龄化使劳动力短缺成为日本"最紧迫"的经济问题之 一。尽管外国工人仅占日本劳动力的3%,但他们贡献了近期劳动力增长的一半。 拉加德指出,如果没有外国工人流入,欧元区到2040年将减少340万工作年龄人口。 贝利强调,人口结构和生产率下降对英国经济构成的"急迫"挑战未得到足够重视。到2040年,英国40% 的人口将超过16-64岁的标准工作年龄段。 人口老龄化威胁经济增长和通胀稳定 报道称,发达经济体普遍面临历史性低生育率和人口寿命延长的双重冲击,这推高了所谓的抚养比,意 味着非工作年龄人 ...
决胜“十四五” 打好收官战丨深化养老服务改革,推动实现老有所养老有所为
Xin Hua She· 2025-08-20 14:37
新华社北京8月20日电 题:深化养老服务改革,推动实现老有所养老有所为 深化养老服务改革发展,是实施积极应对人口老龄化国家战略的迫切要求,事关百姓民生福祉、社 会和谐稳定。 新华社记者朱高祥 "十四五"以来,从制度创新到服务落地,从资源扩容到结构优化,一场惠及亿万老年人的深刻变革 稳步推进,让老年人能有一个幸福美满的晚年。 优化供给格局 健全服务体系 正午时分,浙江省海宁市硖石街道的西山爱心食堂内饭菜飘香。 67岁的刘奶奶告诉记者,她和老伴常在这里吃,既方便又便宜,一荤一素9块钱。 硖石街道有60岁以上老人2.2万余人,约占辖区总人口的三成。为解决高龄老人、空巢老人等用餐 难问题,2023年4月,爱心食堂正式运营,年助餐服务可达11.96万人次。 刘奶奶的生活变化,是我国居家社区养老服务快速发展的缩影。近年来,全国共建成约8.6万个老 年助餐点,各地在政府统筹基础上,注重发挥市场机制作用,因地制宜探索出了"社会餐饮+委托服 务""中央厨房+专业配送"等模式,不断提升老年助餐服务水平。 截至2024年底,我国60周岁及以上老年人口超3.1亿人,占总人口的22%,大部分老年人倾向于在 熟悉、就近就便的环境中安享幸 ...
杜鹏:从五方面入手增强中青年养老“安全感”
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-08-15 16:45
Core Viewpoint - The need to accelerate the construction of a pension service system suitable for China's national conditions, enhancing the sense of security for middle-aged and young people regarding retirement [1] Group 1: Changes in Pension System - Since the reform and opening up, China's pension methods and system have undergone significant changes, transitioning from family-based care to socialized pension services [1] - The basic pension services have evolved from merely providing a safety net to achieving equal and inclusive access, forming a unique "Chinese-style" characteristic [1] Group 2: Population Aging and Its Impact - The background of negative population growth and aging will have long-term effects on the future, with China experiencing the largest and fastest "population-family synchronous change" in human history [1] - Generations "70s", "80s", and "90s" are all facing retirement challenges [1] Group 3: Enhancing Pension Security for Middle-aged and Young People - Five areas of focus to enhance the pension security of the "70s", "80s", and "90s" generations have been proposed [2] - Institutional policy support to establish stable pension expectations, creating a multi-layered policy system from central to local levels [2] - A layered service system to reduce anxiety regarding pension support, including the construction of one-stop comprehensive service centers in communities [2] - Precision in service content to improve service quality, focusing on mental care and social support to alleviate loneliness among the elderly [2] - Intelligent service mechanisms leveraging technology, such as building a pension cloud platform to optimize service matching efficiency [2] - Collaborative and diversified主体协同 to build a pension safety net, attracting social capital through tax reductions and operational subsidies [3]
爱财政咨询委员会呼吁政府警惕人口老龄化支出压力风险
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-08-13 17:55
Core Viewpoint - The Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (Ifac) warns about the future financial pressures from an aging population, urging the government to proactively adjust fiscal spending towards pensions and healthcare [1] Group 1: Current Fiscal Situation - Ireland is characterized as a low-tax, low-spending country compared to other high-income European nations [1] - The current fiscal environment benefits from a relatively young population and strong economic growth, resulting in lower government spending on pensions and healthcare [1] - High profits and substantial tax revenues from multinational corporations contribute to the current fiscal stability [1] Group 2: Future Challenges - The aging population is expected to create significant spending pressures in the future [1] - There is a call for the government to have foresight in reallocating fiscal resources to increase investments in pension and healthcare sectors [1]
WRC2025探秘:机器人,会是银发族的“新伙伴”吗?
Hu Xiu· 2025-08-13 09:52
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing demand in the health and wellness sector due to the rapid aging population and heightened health awareness, with AI agents emerging as a timely solution for rehabilitation and support [1] Group 2 - The aging population is accelerating, leading to a surge in demand for health and wellness services [1] - The emergence of AI technology is positioned as a significant advancement in the health and wellness field, providing support for rehabilitation and communication [1]
2025中国人口老龄化趋势分析
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-09 16:16
Group 1: Current Status of Aging Population - As of the end of 2024, the population aged 60 and above in China will exceed 300 million, reaching 310.31 million, accounting for 22.0% of the total population [1] - The population aged 65 and above will reach 220.23 million, making up 15.6% of the total population [1] - China has entered a moderately aging society, with the aging population becoming a key factor affecting national development [1] Group 2: Characteristics of Aging Population - China has the largest elderly population globally, with approximately 220 million people aged 65 and above, representing one-fourth of the world's elderly population [3] - The aging process in China is significantly faster than in developed countries, with only 21 years taken to transition from aging (7%) to deep aging (14%) [5] Group 3: Future Trends and Projections - By 2030, the elderly population in China is expected to reach 380 million, and by 2035, it will increase to around 420 million, accounting for over 30% of the total population [13] - By 2050, the total population is projected to decline to 1.25 billion, with the elderly population proportion reaching approximately 37.4% [13] Group 4: Regional Disparities - There are significant regional differences in aging levels, with Liaoning having the highest proportion of people aged 65 and above at 21.06% in 2023, while Guangdong, Xinjiang, and Tibet have not yet reached 10% [14] - The aging population is more pronounced in rural areas compared to urban areas, with the elderly population proportion in rural areas increasing from 10.1% in 2010 to 19.3% in 2022 [10] Group 5: Economic and Social Impacts - The demographic dividend is diminishing as the population from the baby boom era exits the labor market, leading to a decline in the working-age population from 1.01 billion in 2013 to 960 million in 2023 [18] - The elderly dependency ratio reached 22.5% in 2023, indicating that for every five working-age individuals, one elderly person is supported [19] - The pension burden is increasing, with the ratio of insured workers to retirees declining from 3.2:1 in 2010 to 2.7:1 in 2022 [20] Group 6: Healthcare System Impacts - The prevalence of chronic diseases is rising, with chronic diseases being the leading cause of death among urban and rural residents, affecting over 300 million people nationwide [23] - The total medical expenses are increasing rapidly due to the aging population and the high incidence of chronic diseases [24] - There is a growing demand for integrated medical and elderly care services, which will become essential for meeting the diverse health needs of the elderly population [26] Group 7: Employment Market Impacts - The supply of labor is shrinking as the proportion of elderly individuals increases and the working-age population decreases [27] - The overall labor participation rate is declining due to lower participation rates among the elderly [27] - The service sector, particularly in elderly care, healthcare, and wellness, is expected to create numerous job opportunities, shifting the employment structure towards "silver economy services" [27]
A股3600点,为什么我的基金还没回本?
天天基金网· 2025-08-09 09:00
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "earning the index but not making money," highlighting the structural divergence in the market where overall indices may rise while specific sectors or funds lag behind [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market has experienced a structural divergence, where the overall index may rise, but specific sectors or funds may not perform similarly, leading to a situation where investors feel they are not benefiting despite market gains [3]. - Even with a market rebound, those who bought at high points (e.g., late 2020 or early 2021) may find that the current rebound is insufficient to cover their previous losses [4]. - Fund managers may temporarily underperform due to their investment strategies not aligning with current market trends, which does not necessarily indicate a failure of their strategies [5]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to understand their holdings, the reasons for underperformance, and the reliability of the fund manager's logic before making decisions [8]. - If the long-term logic remains sound, such as trends in Chinese consumption upgrades or technological innovation, current downturns may be viewed as valuation corrections rather than fundamental failures [8]. - For those who bought at high points, a longer recovery period is expected, and strategies like dollar-cost averaging through regular investments can help mitigate losses [8]. Group 3: Actionable Steps - The article suggests three steps to overcome the challenge of "earning the index but not making money," emphasizing the importance of understanding one's investments and the market context [6]. - It highlights the use of intelligent investment tools, such as the "Smart Investment" feature in the app, which aids in managing investments more effectively by optimizing buying and selling strategies [10]. - The article advocates for a disciplined approach to investing, focusing on long-term value and resisting the urge to sell during downturns [14]. Group 4: Mindset and Patience - Investors are reminded that investment is a long-term endeavor, requiring patience and discipline to navigate market fluctuations [14]. - It emphasizes the importance of focusing on individual investment logic and plans rather than comparing oneself to others, as each investor's situation is unique [15]. - The article concludes with a message of resilience, suggesting that current struggles may ultimately strengthen an investor's ability to face future market challenges [15].