作者 / 温 莎 编辑 / 张 南 设计 / 夏 萌 为了在美国继续发展，福特必须建造更多工厂，但在最近一次公开露面中，吉姆 ∙ 法利（ Jim Farley ）发出了灵魂拷问，"谁来建造呢？" 这位福特汽车公司总裁兼首席执行官是懂政治的，他就差把问题发到白宫了。重振美国制造业是特朗普提出的口号，为此，他举起了政策的大棒，将关 税用得变化多端，可现在的问题是，人呢？ 他说，美国建筑、制造、能源、交通等行业正面临严重的劳动力短缺，数十万个岗位长期空缺。与此同时，过去 20 年间，这些行业的生产力持续下 降，与白领行业的发展趋势形成鲜明对比。 根据 PRT Staffing 的一项调查，美国 17.4% 的制造业存在劳动力短缺的问题。即使福特和其他公司正在投资扩大人才库，问题在得到改善之前还是会进 一步恶化。 PRT 预计未来十年，制造业岗位需求将达到 380 万个。 "美国在美国人赖以生存并支撑经济的关键行业将面临劳动力短缺的风险。"美国两党政策中心高级顾问特蕾莎·卡迪纳尔·布朗（ Theresa Cardinal Brown ）提醒道。 汽车业是其中的重灾区。根据 TechForce 基金会近期的《人才供需报 ...

2023年，中国出生人口仅902万，比2017年减少了一半，死亡人口却高达1093万，导致人口净减139万。 这不仅意味着人口数量在下降，更带来了对社会、经济、教育和就业市场的巨大挑战。 生育率下降背后，年轻人面临着经济压力、职场歧视和教育竞争的重重困难。 如果这种趋势持续，未来的中国将面临劳动力短缺、养老金危机和日益加重的养老负担。 中国未来五十年，生育率危机如何应对？ 中国人口生育率的急剧下降并非单一因素所致，而是多方面原因叠加的结果。 从经济成本、职场压力到社会文化，都在影响着年轻人的生育选择。 近年来，育儿的高昂费用已成为许多年轻夫妻不敢生育的主要原因。 根据统计，从孩子出生到大学毕业，育儿成本大致需要68万元。 对于生活在一线城市的家庭，这一数字更是翻倍，尤其是学区房的价格和教育支出，几乎让家庭无法承受。 然而，除了高昂的育儿费用，职场上的性别不平等也让女性在生育问题上处于两难境地。 许多女性在生育后面临职场复归困难，甚至有一些被迫"退出职场"，这使得她们更加不敢轻易选择生育二胎或三胎。 调查显示，许多女性在职场中感受到由于生育而带来的晋升障碍与薪资下降，甚至有的公司在女性休完产假后，直接将其岗位给 ...

The United States can’t actualize its moonshot AI goals if it’s lacking key workers to bolster the infrastructure to build the technology, according to Ford CEO Jim Farley. With AI predicted to balloon to a $4.8 trillion market by 2033, Farley warned the U.S. has overlooked the labor needed to build and sustain data centers and manufacturing facilities. While President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs to revive factory jobs, there continues to be recruitment and retention problems in U.S. manufacturi ...

Core Viewpoint - Japan is facing a severe aging population crisis, with 29.4% of its population aged 65 and older, the highest in the world, and projections indicating this could rise to 37.1% by 2050 [4][7]. Group 1: Aging Population Statistics - As of the latest data, Japan has 36.19 million people aged 65 and older, marking a historical high [4]. - The number of people aged 70 and above is 29.01 million, while those aged 75 and above total 21.24 million [7]. - The population aged 100 and above is nearing 100,000, with a year-on-year increase of 4,644 individuals [7]. Group 2: Employment Trends Among the Elderly - The number of employed individuals aged 65 and older has reached 9.3 million, an increase of 160,000 from the previous year, marking a record high for 21 consecutive years [7]. - Elderly workers now represent 13.7% of the total workforce, indicating that one in seven workers is aged 65 or older [7]. - Employment rates for those aged 65-69 stand at 53%, while 35% for those aged 70-74, and 12% for those aged 75 and above [7]. Group 3: Government Policies and Labor Shortages - The Japanese government has revised the "Elderly Employment Stability Law" to improve working conditions for older employees and mitigate rising workplace injury risks [8]. - A report from Oxford Economics highlights the urgent need for Japan to reform its immigration policies to address labor shortages exacerbated by an aging population [10]. - The number of foreign residents in Japan increased by 350,000 in 2024, a 10.5% rise, marking the largest increase since records began in 2013 [10]. Group 4: Public Sentiment and Political Landscape - The issue of immigration has become a focal point in Japanese elections, with mixed public sentiments ranging from concerns about foreign students to criticisms of government policies favoring foreigners [11]. - The current political climate shows a trend towards more conservative immigration policies, with potential candidates advocating for stricter measures against foreign workers [11].

Summary of Universal Health Services Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Universal Health Services (NYSE: UHS) - **Industry**: Healthcare, specifically acute care hospitals and behavioral health facilities Key Points and Arguments Policy Impact on Revenue - The company is focused on the impact of Medicaid disenrollment and work requirements, which could affect revenue, particularly in the acute care segment where Medicaid constitutes about 15% of revenue [6][7][9] - The CFO noted that the potential impact of Medicaid disenrollment is speculative, with estimates of affected individuals ranging from 7 to 13 million, but these individuals are not expected to significantly utilize hospital services [7][8] - The company is legally and morally obligated to treat uninsured patients, which contributes to higher uncompensated care in acute care compared to behavioral health [9] Financial Projections and Cuts - The anticipated reduction in supplemental payments is estimated to be between $360 million to $400 million by 2032, with cuts beginning in 2028 [12][14] - The CFO indicated that the cuts are expected to be meaningful, especially for rural and smaller hospitals, and that there may be opportunities for Congress to modify these cuts in the future [14][15] - The company is preparing for these cuts by exploring shifting revenue sources and cost-cutting initiatives, although it is too early to determine if these will fully offset the projected losses [16][17] Volume and Growth Expectations - The company expects mid-single-digit revenue growth (5%-7%) in the acute care segment, with a 3% adjusted admission growth rate being sustainable [34][35] - Behavioral health volumes have been slower than anticipated, with a revised expectation of exiting the year closer to the original target of 2.5%-3% growth [35][36] - Labor scarcity remains a challenge, with ongoing efforts to improve staffing and retention rates, particularly in behavioral health settings [36][40] Outpatient Care Expansion - The company plans to open 10 to 15 new freestanding outpatient facilities annually, focusing on intensive outpatient care [46][47] - The primary challenge in expanding outpatient services is not capital expenditure but rather finding qualified therapists to staff these facilities [47][48] - Established referral sources and relationships with payers are seen as advantages in expanding outpatient services [48] State Budget Pressures - The company is engaged in discussions with state governments regarding budget pressures and potential relief for hospitals affected by Medicaid cuts [20][22] - States are currently taking a wait-and-see approach regarding the implementation of new policies and their impact on hospital funding [23] Specific Programs and Initiatives - The approval of the Directed Payment Programs (DPP) in Washington, DC, is expected to provide a benefit of approximately $85 million, effective October 2024 [24][26] - Proposition 35 in California, which aims to provide funding for behavioral hospitals, is still in discussions with no definitive developments expected in the near term [31] Additional Important Insights - The company is focusing on improving retention rates for staff, particularly nurses, by enhancing orientation and mentorship programs [42][44] - There is a recognition that turnover rates are high but have improved since the pandemic, with efforts now directed towards retaining staff beyond their first year [40][42] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the Universal Health Services conference call, highlighting the company's strategic focus on policy impacts, financial projections, volume growth, and expansion into outpatient care.

Core Insights - The slowdown in hiring by U.S. companies may be attributed to various factors such as labor shortages, lack of consumer confidence, and supply chain disruptions [1] Group 1 - U.S. companies are experiencing a slowdown in recruitment activities [1] - Factors contributing to this slowdown include labor shortages, which indicate a tight labor market [1] - Consumer confidence is reportedly low, which may affect hiring decisions [1] - Supply chain disruptions are also impacting the ability of companies to hire effectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant rise in food prices, particularly dairy and fruits, due to labor shortages and tariffs, predicting that consumers will face these challenges in the coming months [1][3]. Group 1: Price Increases - Milk prices have surged from $7 to $14, and strawberries have become luxury items, forcing consumers to buy processed foods [1]. - Predictions indicate that agricultural prices may rise by 50% to 100% by early next year as inventory depletes and new contracts take effect [3]. Group 2: Labor Shortages - The labor shortage is exacerbated by the lack of willingness among American workers to perform manual labor at wages comparable to other jobs, with undocumented workers earning around $18 per hour [4]. - The H-2A visa program, which provides foreign agricultural labor, is insufficient to meet the demand, as it only accounts for a small portion of farm labor [4][5]. Group 3: Tariffs Impact - Tariffs imposed on everyday food items like tomatoes and orange juice have increased import costs, limiting affordable alternatives for consumers [1][10]. - Consumers are expected to feel at least a 50% impact from tariffs, particularly on fruits, vegetables, and dairy products, leading many to opt for cheaper processed foods [12]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Economists suggest that the only viable policy response is to encourage the reduction of tariffs and increase the influx of legal agricultural workers to improve consumer conditions [14]. - Historical patterns indicate that once prices rise significantly, voters will pressure lawmakers to take action, potentially leading to a shift in immigration policies as elections approach [14].

Core Viewpoint - Central banks from multiple countries warn that without attracting more foreign labor, major global economies will face severe labor shortages in the coming decades due to aging populations [1] Group 1: Japan - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Ueda Kazuo states that Japan's rapid aging society makes labor shortages one of the country's "most urgent" economic issues [1] - Foreign workers account for only 3% of Japan's total labor force but contribute to half of the recent labor growth [1] Group 2: Eurozone - European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde emphasizes that without the influx of foreign workers, the Eurozone's labor force will decrease by 3.4 million by 2040 [1] - Foreign workers have contributed to 50% of the Eurozone's labor growth over the past three years, playing a crucial role in offsetting the negative impacts of demographic changes on economic growth [1] Group 3: United Kingdom - Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey warns that declining productivity and lower labor participation rates are exacerbating economic challenges in the UK [1] - It is predicted that by 2040, 40% of the UK population will be aging, which may worsen labor market shortages [1] Group 4: Economic Implications - Economists indicate that labor shortages could lead to decreased production capacity and may trigger inflationary pressures [1]

Group 1 - Central bank leaders from major economies warn that aging populations pose significant challenges to economic growth and price stability [1][2] - The rapid aging of populations in developed countries is leading to severe labor shortages, which could hinder economic growth unless more foreign workers are attracted [1][2] - In Japan, foreign workers account for only 3% of the labor force but contribute to 50% of recent labor growth, highlighting their importance [3] Group 2 - The dual impact of historically low birth rates and increased life expectancy is raising the dependency ratio, fundamentally challenging traditional economic growth models [2] - Aging populations not only risk slowing growth but may also increase inflationary pressures as labor shortages give workers stronger bargaining power for higher wages [2] - Attracting foreign workers is crucial to filling labor gaps, but rising populism and negative public sentiment towards immigration complicate policy-making [2] Group 3 - ECB President Lagarde noted that foreign workers contributed to half of the labor growth in the Eurozone over the past three years, despite making up only about 9% of the total labor force in 2022 [3] - The UK faces additional challenges with declining labor participation rates, driven by an increase in long-term illness and a significant drop in youth employment [3][4] - The Bank of England is increasingly concerned about inactivity rather than unemployment, as mental health issues are a common reason for non-participation in the labor force [4]

Core Insights - FOOD&LIFE COMPANIES (F&LC) reported a revenue increase of 18.3% year-on-year to 313.149 billion yen for the fiscal year 2025 third quarter, with a net profit growth of 74.3% to 18.072 billion yen [1] - The company operates multiple restaurant brands, including Sushiro, Sugidama, Kyotaru, and Misaki, with a total of 1,180 stores, an increase of 25 stores year-on-year [1] - Sushiro remains the primary revenue driver, with a significant performance difference between domestic and international markets [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of fiscal year 2025, Sushiro's net sales in Japan grew by 11.6% to 195.99 billion yen, while international sales surged by 41.2% to 93.105 billion yen [2][3] - Segment profit for Sushiro in Japan was 15.271 billion yen, while international segment profit reached 11.116 billion yen, reflecting a strong international performance [3] Market Expansion - Sushiro has expanded its international presence, with 212 stores outside Japan, a 38-store increase year-on-year, while the domestic market saw a decrease of 12 stores to 960 [1] - F&LC plans to continue expanding its international footprint while carefully evaluating the business environment in various regions [4] Economic Context - The recovery of Japan's economy is attributed to rising personal consumption and increased demand from overseas tourists, although challenges remain due to global political instability and prolonged yen depreciation [3] - The restaurant industry faces ongoing challenges, including rising prices of raw materials and energy, as well as a long-term labor shortage [3]