Core Insights - International oil prices are declining due to a combination of oversupply and weak demand, leading to systemic challenges for oil soft power [1][2] - The market is transitioning from a supply-driven to a demand-driven perception, with OPEC's production increase strategy diluting supply-side value [1][3] Supply Dynamics - OPEC is reducing its production cuts, which were initially set to last until the end of 2026, by 1.66 million barrels per day [2] - Non-OPEC countries, including the U.S. and Canada, are experiencing rapid supply growth, nearing historical peaks, with global oil production expected to increase by 2.7 million barrels per day to 105.8 million barrels by 2025 [2] - Russian oil exports remain stable despite EU sanctions, with 39% transported via G7-related tankers, mitigating supply disruption risks [2] Demand Dynamics - Global economic growth is weak, leading to downward revisions in demand forecasts; the International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast by 350,000 barrels [3] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects 2025 global oil demand at 103.7 million barrels, indicating a weak growth outlook [3] - Major economies show mixed performance, with emerging markets like China and India as growth points, but their growth rates are below expectations [3] Market Dynamics - The oil market is experiencing a "potential-energy to behavioral-efficiency" transformation, with geopolitical premiums and financial expectations influencing market logic [3][4] - The competition for rule-making power, such as G7 carbon tariffs, reflects consumer countries' attempts to reshape trade rules, but no new rule system has emerged to significantly alter market fundamentals [3] - The psychological shift from supply-driven to demand-driven perceptions amplifies the sense of oversupply in the market [3] Future Outlook - Short-term volatility in the oil market is expected to continue until a new balance is achieved, necessitating a multi-dimensional soft power ecosystem that addresses geopolitical risks, energy transitions, and financial pricing [4] - The combined effects of OPEC's production strategy, Russia's export resilience, and weak global demand create a challenging outlook for oil soft power [4]