邓正红软实力表示，随着伊朗爆发致命抗议活动以及美国发出报复威胁，原油市场对伊朗局势的反应日益剧烈，加之委内瑞拉供应前景存在不确定性影响， 石油软实力势能向上释放，1月9日（周五）国际油价走高。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油2月期货结算价每桶涨1.36元至59.12美元， 涨幅2.35%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油3月期货结算价每桶涨1.35美元至63.34美元，涨幅2.18%。尽管委内瑞拉局势因美国计划将数百万桶原油推向全球市 场而迅速转为价格利空，但伊朗作为规模大得多的生产国和出口国，其任何供应中断的影响都将更为深远。美国总统特朗普周五在白宫会见石油公司高管， 表示美国打算决定哪些公司可以进入委内瑞拉。特朗普预测，各大石油公司将迅速达成协议，在委内瑞拉投资至少1000亿美元。 邓正红软实力思想揭示了石油市场博弈的本质：能源主权的争夺已从油井与军舰，转向流通规则、金融定价与制度信任的隐形战场。伊朗抗议与委内瑞拉供 应博弈，正是软实力与硬实力协同作用的典型案例。1月9日油价走高，反映了市场对伊朗供应中断风险的担忧，以及美国软实力策略的有效性。 伊朗抗议与美国威胁：软实力激活"政治黑箱溢价"。一是规 ...

邓正红软实力表示，委内瑞拉局势以及美国计划继续对委内瑞拉的石油出口施压，地缘风险抬升石油软实力价值，1月5日（周一）国际油价走高。截至收 盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油2月期货结算价每桶涨1.00元至58.32美元，涨幅1.74%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油3月期货结算价每桶涨1.01 美元至61.76美元，涨幅1.66%。美军抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗带来了新的地缘政治暗流，尽管委内瑞拉及其石油行业的未来仍非常不明朗，但特朗普称，美 国将暂时管理这个国家，并需要对委内瑞拉的石油供应获得"完全的准入"。周一报道称，美国计划拦截原名Bella 1的Marinera号油轮，该油轮被指涉嫌装载 委内瑞拉石油。目前，美国对委内瑞拉油轮制裁仍然有效，相关不确定性仍在影响市场走势。 受市场持续供过于求信号影响，沙特阿拉伯已连续第三个月下调面向亚洲市场的旗舰原油品级售价。据媒体获取的一份价目单显示，沙特阿美将2月销往亚 洲的阿拉伯轻质原油价格，调整为较区域基准价溢价30美分，这一调价幅度与媒体此前针对贸易商及炼油企业开展的调查结果基本一致。此次调价正值欧佩 克及其部分盟友坚持一季度暂停增产的计划之际。 事件背景与软实力 ...

从软实力维度规则重构能力看，行为主体是美国，商业模式创新是将"打击毒品"叙事升级为"封锁石油出口"，软实力实现路径是通过单边制裁、扣押油轮、 司法追责，重构全球石油贸易的准入规则，迫使第三方航运公司规避委内瑞拉原油，实现"非接触式围堵"。 从软实力维度价值创新力看，行为主体是乌克兰，商业模式创新是将"能源运输线"作为战略打击目标 ，软实力实现路径是利用无人机对俄影子船队实施"精 准斩首式袭击"，将传统战争成本转化为低风险、高威慑的非对称打击模式，开创"能源暗战"新范式。 从软实力维度预期管理机制看，行为主体是全球市场，商业模式创新是对"地缘风险"进行金融化定价 ，软实力实现路径是市场将政治声明（特朗普"不排除 开战"）与行动（扣押油轮、制裁亲属）同步解读为"供应链断裂信号"，推动布伦特原油风险溢价上升，实现"软实力价值资本化"。 邓正红软实力表示，美国总统特朗普表示不排除与石油输出国组织成员国委内瑞拉开战的可能性，乌克兰在地中海袭击了一艘与俄罗斯影子船队有关联的油 轮，标志其针对协助莫斯科运油船只的一系列袭击再次升级，石油软实力价值获得溢价支持，12月19日（周五）国际油价走高。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交 易所 ...

邓正红软实力表示，对伊朗、委内瑞拉和俄罗斯的地缘性扰动，石油软实力价值浮现溢价，12月18日（周四）国际油价小幅走高。截至收盘，纽约商品期货 交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油1月期货结算价每桶涨0.21元至56.15美元，涨幅0.38%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油2月期货结算价每桶涨0.14美元至59.82美元， 涨幅0.23%。美国可能对委内瑞拉采取军事行动的前景，推动了市场对供应的担忧。美国总统特朗普本周下令封锁受制裁油轮进出委内瑞拉，但他在电视讲 话中并未说明下一步打算。美国还在准备对俄罗斯能源行业实施新一轮制裁，尽管美国及乌克兰的欧洲盟友在考虑为乌克兰提供安全保障，以确保任何和平 协议都能够维持。 美国周四对 29 艘油轮及其管理公司实施制裁，矛头指向为伊朗运输石油和石油产品的"影子船队"。美国财政部称，被制裁的船只和公司通过欺骗性的手段 运输了数亿美元的石油产品。英国政府的公告显示，该国在对俄制裁机制中新增24项制裁对象，制裁对象包括俄罗斯石油企业Russneft和Tatneft，商人 Murtaza Ali Lakhani亦被列入制裁名单。制裁措施包括冻结资产。分析指出，如果不能达成和平协议，对俄罗斯的打击 ...

邓正红软实力思想强调通过非物质化价值创造实现目标的能力，在石油市场中表现为国家与企业的政策调控力、市场适应力和技术创新力。当前石油市场呈 现"宽幅震荡"特征，正是全球石油软实力博弈的集中体现。从地缘扰动与供应端软实力博弈看，一是冲突对供应链的冲击。乌克兰对俄罗斯克拉斯诺达尔海 港和萨马拉炼油厂的袭击，直接威胁年加工700万~890万吨原油的产能，这种"点状影响"暴露了俄罗斯能源基础设施的脆弱性，削弱其供应链稳定性这一关 键软实力指标。二是美国制裁的边际效应。对俄罗斯石油公司的制裁虽造成短期供应中断，但俄罗斯通过"秘密运输渠道"维持出口的能力，显示其已构建规 避制裁的弹性网络，这种危机应对能力构成特殊形态的软实力。三是委内瑞拉产能风险。美国打击毒品走私的行动可能危及该国110万桶的日产量，反映美 国通过非能源政策工具影响产油国产能的"间接调控"能力，这种跨领域影响力是国家软实力的重要维度。 供需平衡中的市场调控软实力。一是欧佩克联盟的渐进式调整。该联盟将日产量目标上调290万桶后暂停增产，这种"精准调控"策略既维持市场份额又避免 价格崩盘，体现其通过集体行动塑造市场预期的软实力。二是美国页岩油的战略收缩。202 ...

Core Insights - International oil prices rose due to the EU's strong rhetoric and expectations of tightened sanctions against Russia, reflecting the profound impact of soft power on the energy market [1][2][4] - The EU's classification of Russia's actions as "terrorism" has led to increased market expectations for sanctions, driving up oil prices [2][3] - Diesel market volatility is attributed to supply tightness and changes in delivery rules, with significant price fluctuations observed [1][2][4] Oil Price Movements - As of November 18, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settled at $60.74 per barrel, up $0.83 (1.39%), while Brent crude oil futures rose to $64.89 per barrel, an increase of $0.69 (1.07%) [2] - The diesel market has seen a price gap surge between recent delivery month contracts, reflecting concerns over supply disruptions [3][4] Geopolitical Impacts - The impending U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies are expected to reduce Russian production capacity by 500,000 to 600,000 barrels per day [3][4] - Asian buyers have begun to shift their sourcing away from Russian oil, opting for alternatives from the Middle East and the U.S. [3][4] Market Dynamics - The EU's sanctions are reshaping trade rules, compelling Russia to adjust its export structure, including increasing ESPO crude oil exports to China [4] - Despite geopolitical tensions raising risk premiums, a global oversupply of 4 million barrels per day is suppressing upward price movements [4] - The future of the energy market will depend on the resilience of Asian demand, which has seen an 8% increase in Chinese imports, and Russia's adjustments to its export structure [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the dynamics of oil prices influenced by geopolitical risks and supply-demand factors, highlighting the recent fluctuations in international oil prices due to events in Russia and the Middle East [1][2][3] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - International oil prices experienced a slight decline, with West Texas Intermediate crude settling at $59.91 per barrel and Brent crude at $64.20 per barrel, both down by 0.30% [1] - Following an attack on Russia's Novorossiysk port, oil prices had previously surged over 2%, indicating the sensitivity of oil prices to geopolitical events [1][2] Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - Recent geopolitical events, including Ukraine's attack on the Novorossiysk port and Iran's seizure of a tanker, have injected new risk premiums into oil prices amid global supply surplus concerns [1][3] - U.S. President Trump's comments on potential military action in Venezuela and sanctions against countries engaging with Russia add to the geopolitical tension affecting oil markets [2][3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is currently characterized by weak supply and demand, leading to a lack of clear drivers for oil prices, which are expected to remain volatile [2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that while a supply surplus may pressure prices in the near term, demand growth could tighten the market by 2027, leading to a potential price recovery [2] Group 4: Soft Power in Oil Markets - The article emphasizes the importance of soft power in the oil market, suggesting that future price movements will depend more on geopolitical strategies and less on traditional supply-demand dynamics [3][4] - Key competitive factors in the future oil market include the ability to set technical standards, financial rule restructuring, and managing alliances among oil-producing countries [4]

Core Insights - The geopolitical risks from Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and Iran's seizure of an oil tanker have significantly increased oil's soft power, leading to a rise in international oil prices [1][2][4] Group 1: Geopolitical Events Impact - Ukraine's drone attack on the Novorossiysk oil port has disrupted the export of approximately 700,000 barrels of Russian oil and 1.5 million barrels of Kazakh oil daily, affecting about 20% of Russia's crude oil exports [1][3] - Iran's seizure of a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of global oil transport, has heightened concerns over shipping safety in the region, injecting additional geopolitical risk premium into oil prices [1][3] Group 2: Oil Price Dynamics - On November 14, international oil prices rose, with West Texas Intermediate crude increasing by $1.40 to $60.09 per barrel (up 2.39%) and Brent crude rising by $1.38 to $64.39 per barrel (up 2.19%) [1] - The price formation mechanism has shifted from a simple supply-demand balance to one dominated by "rule reconstruction" and "expectation management," enhancing the influence of implicit rules (soft power) on explicit prices (hard power) [4] Group 3: Soft Power Theory Application - The events in Ukraine and Iran exemplify the activation of oil market soft power through three key dimensions: rule reconstruction, expectation management, and value innovation, collectively driving up international oil prices [4] - The soft power theory posits that the energy market's competition will increasingly focus on rule dominance, technological standards, and climate narratives, with geopolitical risks continuing to act as a catalyst for oil price movements [4]

Core Insights - The oil market is experiencing a dynamic balance between supply surplus and sanction risks, leading to a slight increase in oil prices as market participants assess these factors [4][6] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for global oil surplus for the sixth consecutive month, predicting a surplus of approximately 4 million barrels per day by 2026 [4][5] - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for global oil demand, projecting an increase from 103.5 million barrels per day in 2024 to 113 million barrels per day by 2040, delaying the peak demand prediction from 2034 to 2040 due to various factors [2][5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 6.413 million barrels last week, the largest increase since July, significantly exceeding expectations of a 1.96 million barrel increase [5] - Despite the increase in crude oil inventories, signs of resilience in both domestic and international oil demand are indicated by a comprehensive decline in refined product inventories and a rebound in exports [5][6] - OPEC has acknowledged that global supply exceeded demand in the third quarter, contradicting previous expectations of a supply shortage [4] Market Sentiment and Future Trends - The current oil market is characterized by a "soft power" adjustment phase, where hard data on supply surplus interacts with the soft impacts of sanctions, creating complex market psychological expectations [6] - Future competition in the oil industry is expected to focus on the establishment of technical standards, financial rule restructuring, alliance management capabilities, and value innovation [5][6] - The shift in focus from resource control to rule reconstruction and value innovation is emphasized, indicating a transformation in how oil market dynamics are managed [4][6]

Core Insights - The global oil market has entered a structural surplus phase, with supply exceeding demand by 500,000 barrels per day, primarily due to unexpected increases in U.S. oil production and OPEC's own production hikes [1][2][4] - The emergence of a contango structure in U.S. crude futures indicates high inventory levels and weak demand, reflecting market expectations of continued oversupply [1][3][4] - OPEC has revised its forecasts, predicting that global oil supply will match demand by 2026, contrasting with previous expectations of a supply shortfall [3][4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC's latest report indicates a shift from a daily shortage of 400,000 barrels to a surplus of 500,000 barrels, driven by increased U.S. production and OPEC's accelerated output [4][5] - The recent contango in U.S. crude futures is the first occurrence since February, signaling market expectations of ongoing oversupply [2][4] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration has raised its 2026 U.S. oil production forecast from 13.51 million barrels to 13.58 million barrels per day [3] Price Movements - International oil prices have dropped significantly, with West Texas Intermediate crude falling by $2.55 to $58.49 per barrel, a decline of 4.18%, and Brent crude down by $2.45 to $62.71 per barrel, a drop of 3.76% [2] - The lack of bullish catalysts and a calm geopolitical backdrop have opened up downward pressure on oil prices [3] Institutional Forecast Adjustments - OPEC has adjusted its third-quarter outlook from a supply deficit to a surplus due to higher-than-expected U.S. production and increased output from OPEC itself [2][4] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) now predicts that oil and gas demand may continue to grow until 2050, contradicting earlier forecasts that anticipated peak demand within this decade [3][4] Impact on Oil Soft Power - The supply surplus has weakened the ability of oil-producing countries to manage market expectations and reconfigure rules, diminishing their pricing power [5] - The prevailing market sentiment regarding oversupply has pressured oil prices downward, indicating limited effectiveness of OPEC's signals to manage expectations [5] - The industry is under increasing pressure to transition from resource dependency to value innovation, emphasizing the importance of technological and business model advancements [5][6] Future Trends in Soft Power Competition - The focus of competition in the oil industry is shifting towards the establishment of technical standards and carbon footprint management as key dimensions of soft power [6] - Changes in the structure of the crude futures market, such as contango, present opportunities for financial derivative innovations, allowing oil-producing countries to enhance their soft power through participation in financial rule-making [6] - Companies in the oil sector must balance short-term production adjustments with long-term strategic transformations to build more resilient business models in the face of ongoing supply surplus [6]