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兴通股份(603209):市场运价在回调 公司盈利有韧性
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-11 08:29
Core Viewpoint - The domestic chemical shipping market is experiencing a decline in freight rates, while the global chemical shipping market is at historically high levels but is beginning to adjust downwards. The performance of Xingtong Co. is mixed, with strong domestic margins but potential pressure from external market conditions [1][2][4]. Group 1: Domestic Chemical Shipping Market - The demand growth for domestic chemical shipping is slowing, leading to freight rates at historically low levels. In 2024, the domestic chemical shipping market is expected to see a 5% decline in freight rates [1]. - Xingtong Co. achieved a domestic business gross margin of 40.6% in 2024, up from 36% in 2023, likely due to long-term contracts with major clients [1]. Group 2: Global Chemical Shipping Market - In 2024, global chemical shipping rates and prices for 20,000 DWT chemical tankers are at historically high levels but are starting to adjust downwards in the second half of the year [2]. - The global chemical shipping capacity is projected to grow by 4.9% and 5.7% in 2025-26, which may exert pressure on future freight rates [2]. Group 3: Xingtong Co. Performance - Xingtong Co.'s shipping capacity grew by 48% in 2023 and is expected to grow by 12% in 2024, driving revenue growth of 58% and 22%, respectively, and net profit growth of 22% and 39% [3]. - The company plans to introduce two 13,000 DWT dual-purpose stainless steel chemical tankers in 2025, with at least 12 additional foreign trade stainless steel chemical tankers expected to be operational by 2027, enhancing revenue and profit potential [3]. Group 4: Profit Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecast for Xingtong Co. has been adjusted downward due to the expected decline in domestic and foreign hazardous chemical shipping rates, with the 2025 net profit estimate revised to 406 million yuan from 524 million yuan [4]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating despite the adjustments, with net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 set at 482 million yuan and 529 million yuan, respectively [4].